Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Mike G
Posts: 6463 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Tue May 19, 2026 11:15 am
Spurs 1 - 0 Thunder
122 - 115 in 2 OT
Pythagorean wins .69 - .31 , eWins .59 - .41
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... _2026.html
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e580
.33 Vi. Wembanyama SA 48 .651 36.7 20.9 2.4 .7 2.5 2.3 3.98
.19 Dylan Harper SA 47 .511 19.4 9.8 4.9 5.0 .8 .0 2.36
.15 Alex Caruso OKC 32 .756 39.0 2.1 1.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.64
.13 Shai G-A OKC 51 .436 16.1 2.0 8.0 3.7 3.0 .7 1.42
.11 Jalen Williams OKC 38 .491 24.6 6.4 2.7 1.0 2.1 1.0 1.74
.03 Jul. Champagnie SA 44 .458 6.7 8.6 .9 .8 .9 1.7 .40
.03 Stephon Castle SA 49 .486 13.6 5.1 8.6 .7 8.9 .0 .33
.02 Is. Hartenstein OKC 13 .500 6.2 5.4 5.4 3.0 3.1 5.7 1.01
.02 Cason Wallace OKC 28 .667 9.2 7.0 .0 2.6 1.3 .0 .42
.02 Devin Vassell SA 50 .542 9.3 5.0 1.5 .7 2.4 1.4 .19
eWin per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e580
.01 Keldon Johnson SA 22 .650 20.0 .0 .0 .0 1.7 .0 .32
.01 Ajay Mitchell OKC 34 .400 3.6 3.9 4.8 2.2 .0 .0 .18
.01 Chet Holmgren OKC 41 .500 5.9 6.7 .0 .9 1.0 1.8 .10
.00 Carter Bryant SA 14 .750 6.7 5.4 2.5 .0 .0 .0 .04
-.00 Jared McCain OKC 18 .583 14.0 3.5 1.7 .0 4.0 .0 -.11
-.00 Luke Kornet SA 9 .000 .0 12.3 3.8 .0 3.9 .0 -.25
-.01 Luguentz Dort OKC 22 .417 4.7 4.8 1.6 .0 .0 .0 -.33
-.02 Jaylin Williams OKC 10 --- .0 9.1 .0 .0 3.4 .0 -.87
shooting : SA .552 - .520 OKC + 4.3
rebounds: SA 61 - 40 OKC + 16.4
turnovers: OKC 15 - 23 SA + 10.6
Code: Select all
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e580 . SAS min PER WS/48 BPM e580
Shai 51 15.8 .055 5.6 1.42 Vassell 50 7.7 .060 0.4 .19
Holmgren 41 8.1 .053 -3.1 .10 Castle 49 6.4 -.068 -5.9 .33
J Dub 38 19.3 .067 3.9 1.74 Wemby 48 37.7 .436 14.9 3.98
Mitchell 34 7.9 .058 -1.7 .18 Harper 47 24.0 .289 12.3 2.36
Caruso 32 32.2 .269 21.1 2.64 Champagnie 44 9.2 .092 0.9 .40
Wallace 28 15.1 .115 5.3 .42 Johnson 22 13.1 .137 2.4 .32
Dort 22 4.1 .001 -6.2 -.33 Bryant 14 8.4 .167 3.8 .04
McCain 18 4.1 -.080 -7.0 -.11 Kornet 9 -.9 -.105 -8.0 -.25
H'stein 13 14.6 .123 6.2 1.01 Barnes 6 -4.1 -.114 -10.6 -1.10
J Will 10 -2.3 -.131 -12.6 -.87
Wiggins 4 -29.0 -.733 -36.6 -1.10
. totals 13.1 .060 2.13 .81 . totals 15.2 .145 3.56 1.19
min. correl: .30 .18 .25 .41 .45 .27 .33 .51
Mike G
Posts: 6463 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Wed May 20, 2026 12:00 pm
Knicks 1 - 0 Cavs
115 - 104 in OT
Pyth wins .79 - .21 , eWins .65 - .35
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e530
.28 Jalen Brunson NY 47 .559 32.3 4.5 4.6 2.5 2.6 .0 3.20
.20 Donovan Mitchell Cle 41 .617 28.0 4.9 2.5 4.8 3.9 .9 2.59
.12 Evan Mobley Cle 40 .441 11.8 14.0 2.6 .0 3.0 2.7 1.58
.11 Josh Hart NY 30 .542 17.1 10.1 4.8 1.3 2.7 .0 1.87
.07 Dean Wade Cle 30 .909 12.6 6.7 3.4 .0 .0 .0 1.28
.07 Mitchell Robinson NY 14 .286 8.2 17.7 2.5 5.5 .0 .0 2.70
.07 Mikal Bridges NY 43 .750 18.1 5.0 .8 1.9 2.8 .0 .87
.07 Karl-A Towns NY 40 .464 12.6 13.9 4.5 1.0 7.1 .9 .88
.06 Jarrett Allen Cle 36 .500 9.4 7.8 2.9 .9 1.1 1.0 .83
.05 OG Anunoby NY 34 .464 13.2 6.3 2.1 1.2 1.2 .0 .85
eWin per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e530
.04 Landry Shamet NY 18 1.125 21.2 2.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.24
.02 Sam Merrill Cle 28 .632 12.9 1.4 2.4 1.1 .0 .0 .32
.00 Dennis Schröder Cle 19 .167 3.1 .0 8.7 1.7 .0 .0 .14
-.02 Jordan Clarkson NY 17 .500 5.4 4.9 .0 .0 2.3 2.1 -.76
-.04 Max Strus Cle 25 .571 11.6 3.1 1.3 1.3 4.7 .0 -.82
-.04 Miles McBride NY 17 .000 .0 4.9 2.0 .0 .0 .0 -1.28
-.04 James Harden Cle 42 .395 11.6 3.8 2.4 .8 5.7 .9 -.56
shooting : NY .553 - .512 Cle + 5.5
rebounds: NY 47 - 38 Cle + 7.0
turnovers: NY 19 - 21 Cle + 2.7
Code: Select all
. Cle min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . NYK min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Harden 42 1.7 -.175 -9.9 -.56 Brunson 47 24.0 .237 8.7 3.20
Mitchell 41 23.7 .150 11.8 2.59 Bridges 43 13.7 .170 4.4 .87
Mobley 40 11.4 .002 -0.1 1.58 Towns 40 7.8 -.019 -1.9 .88
Allen 36 15.2 .138 1.7 .83 Anunoby 34 9.3 .174 0.7 .85
Wade 30 18.2 .243 10.3 1.28 Hart 30 13.9 .172 4.3 1.87
Merrill 28 13.3 .168 3.5 .32 Shamet 18 19.5 .308 13.5 1.24
Strus 25 4.0 -.044 -4.4 -.82 Clarkson 17 2.2 .018 -2.4 -.76
Schröder 19 -.2 -.110 -7.8 .14 McBride 17 -1.8 .114 -6.2 -1.28
Ellis 5 -6.8 -.266 -19.1 -3.53 Robinson 14 19.0 .207 4.5 2.70
. Alvarado 7 19.1 .217 4.4 1.33
. totals 11.4 .043 0.67 .71 . totals 13.3 .155 3.26 1.29
correl. w min: .28 -.13 .08 .45 <-(1-8) (1-9)-> .41 .00 .11 .56
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html
Mike G
Posts: 6463 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Thu May 21, 2026 10:49 am
Thunder 1 - 1 Spurs
avg score 118.5 - 117.5
Pyth wins 1.06 - .94 , eWins 1.03 - .97
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e530
.49 Vi. Wembanyama SA 43 .639 27.8 19.6 3.5 .8 3.1 3.0 3.00
.29 Shai G-A OKC 45 .495 21.5 2.7 7.5 2.5 2.2 1.2 1.72
.24 Alex Caruso OKC 29 .814 33.8 2.9 3.2 1.8 1.3 1.2 2.25
.21 Dylan Harper SA 36 .522 17.7 7.6 4.2 3.6 1.1 .0 1.58
.14 Jalen Williams OKC 23 .492 23.2 6.3 2.2 2.5 1.8 .8 1.59
.11 Cason Wallace OKC 27 .833 14.6 6.1 2.2 3.9 .7 .0 1.11
.11 Stephon Castle SA 44 .575 18.4 5.2 7.2 .8 8.8 .0 .65
.08 Devin Vassell SA 44 .648 13.9 4.7 1.1 .4 1.7 1.2 .50
.08 Is. Hartenstein OKC 20 .500 11.1 13.2 4.0 .9 4.0 1.9 1.08
.05 Jared McCain OKC 22 .452 13.0 5.8 2.7 1.5 1.7 .0 .65
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e530
.05 Chet Holmgren OKC 34 .525 10.3 6.2 .9 .5 1.2 1.1 .39
.05 Jul. Champagnie SA 40 .432 6.7 7.2 1.2 .9 .5 .9 .31
.04 Luguentz Dort OKC 19 .591 12.5 5.6 3.4 .0 1.1 .0 .54
.03 Ajay Mitchell OKC 31 .500 7.5 2.1 3.4 3.4 1.8 .6 .28
.02 Keldon Johnson SA 24 .511 14.0 3.9 .6 .0 1.5 .0 .24
.01 Jaylin Williams OKC 10 .500 8.7 9.0 2.8 .0 1.7 .0 .40
.01 Luke Kornet SA 10 .667 6.6 8.9 1.4 1.6 1.7 .0 .28
-.01 Harrison Barnes SA 9 .625 8.9 5.9 .0 .0 3.7 .0 -.27
-.01 Carter Bryant SA 12 .750 4.3 4.5 1.2 1.3 2.8 1.3 -.22
shooting : SA .579 - .547 OKC + 4.2
rebounds: SA 53.0 - 40.5 OKC + 9.8
turnovers: OKC 12.5 - 22.0 SA + 12.6
Code: Select all
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e530 . SAS min PER WS/48 BPM e530
Shai 89 20.7 .128 5.8 1.72 Vassell 88 12.1 .100 2.7 .50
Holmgren 68 10.0 .044 -3.7 .39 Castle 87 10.9 -.045 -3.4 .65
Mitchell 62 10.5 .016 -0.5 .28 Wemby 86 33.1 .332 13.2 3.00
Caruso 57 33.6 .348 19.7 2.25 Champagnie 80 8.1 .058 -0.6 .31
Wallace 53 23.2 .244 12.8 1.11 Harper 71 20.9 .198 6.9 1.58
J Dub 45 20.3 .073 4.7 1.59 Johnson 48 10.0 .038 -3.3 .24
McCain 44 12.2 .045 -1.7 .65 Bryant 24 6.3 .006 1.4 -.22
H'stein 40 15.6 .084 -2.2 1.08 Kornet 20 12.2 .041 0.7 .28
Dort 38 12.1 .078 -0.3 .54 Barnes 18 5.5 -.037 -5.3 -.27
J Will 20 7.4 .001 -4.2 .40 McLaughlin 7 30.5 .345 17.4 1.91
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . SAS min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Joe 10 -13.4 -.320 -24.6 -.82
Wiggins 4 -29.0 -.801 -36.6 -.97
. totals 16.5 .101 3.02 1.03 . totals 15.4 .107 2.71 .97
min. correl: .12 .10 .13 .19 .45 .40 .32 .55
Crow
Posts: 11370 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Post
by Crow Thu May 21, 2026 7:27 pm
Almost 70% of EWin to 5 total players,
Mike G
Posts: 6463 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Thu May 21, 2026 9:22 pm
Of OKC's top 9 players, Holmgren ranks 8th or 9th in all 4 stats.
And eWins actually gives the least total credit to these 5:
Code: Select all
. who tm min PER WS/48 BPM e530 pW WS bW eW
Wemby SAS 86 33.1 .332 13.2 3.00 .50 .52 .44 .49
Shai OKC 90 20.7 .128 5.8 1.72 .27 .21 .28 .29
Caruso OKC 58 33.6 .348 19.7 2.25 .34 .36 .40 .25
Harper SAS 72 20.9 .198 6.9 1.58 .22 .26 .24 .21
J Dub OKC 46 20.3 .073 4.7 1.59 .14 .06 .13 .14
. totals 1.47 1.41 1.49 1.38
1.40 of 2 games would be 70% of wins.
Mike G
Posts: 6463 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri May 22, 2026 11:27 am
Knicks 2 - 0 Cavs
avg score 112.0 - 98.5
Pyth wins 1.69 - .31 , eWins 1.35 - .65
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e505
.41 Jalen Brunson NY 44 .548 27.3 3.7 7.9 1.3 2.9 .0 2.40
.31 Josh Hart NY 32 .574 25.5 6.9 5.9 1.8 2.0 .0 2.42
.28 Donovan Mitchell Cle 40 .598 25.2 4.5 1.7 2.6 2.4 .9 1.75
.21 Karl-A Towns NY 38 .574 16.8 13.8 2.7 .5 3.9 .5 1.40
.19 Evan Mobley Cle 39 .537 12.5 10.5 2.7 .0 2.0 2.4 1.25
.18 Mikal Bridges NY 41 .771 19.7 3.9 1.7 1.4 1.6 .0 1.12
.17 OG Anunoby NY 33 .587 15.7 5.5 2.6 1.1 .6 1.7 1.26
.16 Jarrett Allen Cle 33 .500 11.2 10.6 1.6 1.1 .6 1.7 1.24
.08 James Harden Cle 37 .465 14.5 5.4 2.3 1.4 3.2 .5 .54
.07 Mi. Robinson NY 14 .364 9.3 14.1 1.2 2.6 1.5 1.3 1.35
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e505
.06 Dean Wade Cle 25 .765 10.3 6.5 4.1 .0 1.6 .0 .57
.03 Dennis Schröder Cle 19 .233 4.0 4.1 7.0 .9 .0 .0 .39
.02 Landry Shamet NY 17 .900 10.5 5.8 .0 1.1 .0 .0 .27
.01 Jose Alvarado NY 8 .500 7.3 5.0 2.1 .0 .0 2.2 .49
.01 Jaylon Tyson Cle 5 .400 8.6 11.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .52
-.00 Miles McBride NY 16 .250 3.5 7.4 4.2 .0 .0 .0 -.05
-.03 Jordan Clarkson NY 12 .700 11.5 3.2 .0 .0 3.3 1.4 -.53
-.06 Sam Merrill Cle 26 .410 7.4 .8 1.3 .7 .7 .0 -.60
-.07 Max Strus Cle 26 .433 8.0 4.6 2.6 1.3 4.4 .0 -.67
shooting : NY .571 - .499 Cle + 9.8
rebounds: NY 43.5 - 40.0 Cle + 2.7
turnovers: NY 13.5 - 14.5 Cle + 1.3
Code: Select all
. Cle min PER WS/48 BPM e505 . NYK min PER WS/48 BPM e505
Mitchell 80 20.6 .125 7.8 1.75 Brunson 87 21.0 .204 6.0 2.40
Mobley 77 14.8 .063 3.6 1.25 Bridges 82 16.8 .209 5.1 1.12
Harden 74 9.2 -.050 -1.8 .54 Towns 76 12.9 .105 1.1 1.40
Allen 65 18.4 .141 2.7 1.24 Anunoby 66 16.0 .242 6.3 1.26
Strus 51 1.9 -.094 -7.2 -.67 Hart 64 20.9 .243 8.2 2.42
Merrill 51 3.4 -.038 -7.2 -.60 Shamet 33 10.7 .196 3.3 .27
Wade 50 12.5 .121 4.9 .57 McBride 31 2.6 .070 -6.9 -.05
Schröder 37 4.6 -.065 -5.3 .39 Robinson 27 14.7 .107 0.1 1.35
Tyson 10 11.8 -.032 -5.6 .52 Clarkson 24 4.3 .026 -3.7 -.53
Ellis 6 -4.6 -.256 -17.4 -2.51 Alvarado 15 11.4 .121 2.5 .49
. totals 11.7 .031 0.16 .65 . totals 15.1 .174 3.45 1.35
correl w min: .70 .39 .61 .74 <(1-8) (1-10)> .72 .53 .63 .72
Mike G
Posts: 6463 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri May 22, 2026 9:02 pm
After 2 games against the Spurs, OKC centers have been much less productive than in previous series.
According to b-r.com, the fraction of their minutes at C:
Hartenstein 1.00
Holmgren .45
Jaylin W .69
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... _pbp_stats
Applying these factors to their per-game averages, adding them, and scaling to 48 minutes:
Code: Select all
per48: Pts Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
rd 1-2 22.7 14.5 3.4 4.9 2.2 2.3 2.1
gm 1-2 14.7 12.0 3.1 4.9 .9 2.7 1.8
In the WCF, only turnovers have increased.
Same deal for Wemby + Kornet:
Code: Select all
per48: Pts Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
rd 1-2 27.7 16.5 3.6 4.8 1.6 3.5 5.6
gm 1-2 29.9 20.8 4.5 4.1 1.4 3.6 3.2
Mike G
Posts: 6463 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sat May 23, 2026 10:15 am
Thunder 2 - 1 Spurs
avg score 120.0 - 114.3
Pyth wins 1.97 - 1.03 , eWins 1.73 - 1.27
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e513
.60 Vi. Wembanyama SA 42 .642 25.4 13.8 3.1 .8 2.7 2.6 2.47
.45 Shai G-A OKC 42 .516 21.1 2.8 8.7 1.8 2.2 1.2 1.84
.37 Alex Caruso OKC 27 .797 31.5 3.7 2.7 2.2 1.4 1.3 2.30
.22 Cason Wallace OKC 27 .705 14.2 6.9 3.1 4.1 .5 .0 1.42
.20 Dylan Harper SA 30 .494 14.3 6.9 4.0 2.7 1.7 .0 1.17
.19 Devin Vassell SA 41 .663 15.2 5.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 .9 .79
.15 Jaylin Williams OKC 14 .828 22.6 9.6 2.2 1.7 .9 .0 1.81
.14 Jalen Williams OKC 15 .492 21.2 7.1 2.2 2.6 1.8 .8 1.65
.14 Stephon Castle SA 40 .544 15.4 5.1 7.0 .8 6.5 .6 .61
.14 Jared McCain OKC 24 .500 18.0 6.3 2.2 1.0 1.6 .0 1.03
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e513
.12 Is. Hartenstein OKC 20 .500 9.4 15.0 5.0 .6 4.0 1.2 1.00
.09 Chet Holmgren OKC 32 .603 12.4 6.1 1.0 .4 .8 .8 .51
.07 De'Aaron Fox SA 10 .536 16.0 8.8 6.3 1.1 4.9 .0 1.10
.06 Jul. Champagnie SA 38 .453 6.5 6.4 1.4 .9 .3 1.0 .25
.04 Jo. McLaughlin SA 3 1.00 30.6 7.9 6.6 .0 3.8 .0 2.22
.03 Luguentz Dort OKC 20 .542 7.1 7.2 3.9 .0 1.3 .0 .23
.01 Ajay Mitchell OKC 26 .421 5.7 4.4 3.3 2.8 3.0 .5 .07
.01 Luke Kornet SA 11 .667 8.6 7.8 1.9 1.0 3.3 .0 .10
-.00 Keldon Johnson SA 20 .491 12.6 4.3 .5 .0 1.8 .0 -.02
-.02 Isaiah Joe OKC 6 .375 3.6 .0 3.2 .0 .0 .0 -.57
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e513
-.02 Harrison Barnes SA 7 .500 6.5 5.1 .0 .0 3.3 .0 -.61
-.03 Carter Bryant SA 11 .600 5.6 4.2 1.8 .9 3.1 1.0 -.38
shooting : OKC .573 - .573 SA + .1
rebounds: SA 47.7 - 40.7 OKC + 5.5
turnovers: OKC 12.0 - 19.7 SA + 10.2
Code: Select all
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e513 . SAS min PER WS/48 BPM e513
Shai 126 21.7 .178 6.5 1.84 Wemby 125 29.2 .268 11.3 2.47
Holmgren 96 12.2 .101 -2.1 .51 Vassell 124 15.7 .137 5.1 .79
Caruso 82 30.5 .321 17.3 2.30 Castle 121 12.4 -.005 -1.6 .61
Wallace 81 22.0 .251 11.4 1.42 Champagnie 115 8.6 .041 -0.6 .25
Mitchell 79 5.8 -.063 -4.5 .07 Harper 89 17.0 .100 3.6 1.17
McCain 71 15.3 .057 -2.3 1.03 Johnson 60 7.7 -.018 -6.1 -.02
Ha'stein 61 12.5 .078 -2.0 1.00 Bryant 34 4.3 -.042 -1.8 -.38
Dort 61 8.4 .059 -0.9 .23 Kornet 32 9.6 -.044 -2.0 .10
J Dub 45 19.9 .066 4.7 1.65 Fox 31 17.0 -.136 -1.1 1.10
J Will 42 23.0 .290 10.2 1.81 Barnes 21 2.5 -.124 -7.2 -.61
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e513 . SAS min PER WS/48 BPM e513
Joe 19 .8 -.054 -8.2 -.57 McLaughlin 9 28.4 .323 16.2 2.22
Wiggins 5 -24.4 -.632 -30.8 -1.09
. totals 16.8 .129 3.48 1.16 . totals 15.0 .071 2.15 .84
min. correl: .24 .24 .19 .24 .58 .73 .62 .60
Mike G
Posts: 6463 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sun May 24, 2026 11:22 am
Knicks 3 - 0 Cavs
avg score 115.0 - 101.7
Pyth wins 2.51 - .49, eWins 2.01 - .99
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
.53 Jalen Brunson NY 43 .565 27.6 3.6 6.8 1.1 3.2 .0 2.04
.38 Josh Hart NY 33 .554 20.7 8.6 5.5 2.5 3.0 .0 1.91
.36 Karl-A Towns NY 37 .579 15.4 12.8 3.9 1.3 2.6 .7 1.59
.32 Mikal Bridges NY 41 .756 20.4 4.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 .6 1.30
.32 OG Anunoby NY 32 .667 20.0 7.0 3.1 .7 .9 1.1 1.63
.32 Donovan Mitchell Cle 39 .557 23.3 3.5 2.1 2.9 3.3 .6 1.34
.26 Evan Mobley Cle 37 .564 16.3 9.6 2.2 .0 3.1 2.0 1.16
.22 Jarrett Allen Cle 34 .588 12.7 9.9 .9 .7 .4 1.1 1.07
.13 James Harden Cle 38 .500 15.2 5.4 2.7 1.3 4.1 .3 .55
.07 Mi. Robinson NY 12 .417 8.4 14.1 .9 1.8 1.1 .9 1.01
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
.06 Landry Shamet NY 20 1.00 15.2 4.0 1.6 .6 1.3 .0 .50
.05 Max Strus Cle 27 .473 9.7 6.3 3.7 1.3 2.7 .0 .29
.03 Dean Wade Cle 22 .684 6.9 6.2 3.3 .6 1.2 .0 .25
.03 Dennis Schröder Cle 15 .313 5.2 3.4 6.4 .8 .0 .0 .35
.02 Jaylon Tyson Cle 6 .467 8.5 12.1 1.5 .0 1.9 .0 .48
.00 Jose Alvarado NY 6 .429 8.7 4.0 1.6 .0 2.0 1.7 .04
.00 Miles McBride NY 15 .357 5.3 5.2 2.8 .0 .0 .8 .01
-.03 Jordan Clarkson NY 9 .700 9.4 2.9 .0 .0 2.8 1.2 -.46
-.05 Sam Merrill Cle 25 .449 6.8 2.1 1.2 1.0 .5 .0 -.31
shooting : NY .602 - .524 Cle + 10.5
rebounds: NY 41.3 - 38.0 Cle + 2.6
turnovers: NY 14.0 - 15.7 Cle + 2.2
Code: Select all
. Cle min PER WS/48 BPM e480 . NYK min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Mitchel 118 17.3 .036 4.4 1.34 Brunson 128 20.7 .187 3.4 2.04
Harden 115 9.3 -.066 -2.8 .55 Bridges 122 19.2 .209 5.9 1.30
Mobley 112 15.3 .027 2.3 1.16 Towns 112 16.3 .175 4.1 1.59
Allen 101 19.3 .159 3.1 1.07 Hart 98 18.5 .172 6.0 1.91
Strus 82 8.6 .010 -1.4 .29 Anunoby 97 19.7 .285 7.7 1.63
Merrill 75 4.7 -.002 -4.9 -.31 Shamet 60 13.8 .213 4.9 .50
Wade 67 10.5 .082 3.1 .25 McBride 45 4.8 .084 -5.1 .01
Schröder 46 7.0 -.012 -2.1 .35 Robinson 36 13.3 .134 -1.3 1.01
Tyson 19 9.9 -.032 -3.9 .48 Clarkson 27 3.6 .008 -3.6 -.46
Ellis 6 -4.6 -.293 -17.4 -1.96 Alvarado 19 5.7 -.033 -6.4 .04
. totals 12.2 .026 0.28 .66 . totals 16.4 .180 3.58 1.34
min. correl. .60 .03 .40 .69 <(1-9) (1-10)> .86 .60 .72 .85
Mike G
Posts: 6463 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Mon May 25, 2026 11:17 am
Spurs 2 - 2 Thunder
avg score 111.5 - 110.5
Pyth wins 2.12 - 1.88 , eWins 2.06 - 1.94
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e505
.91 Vi. Wembanyama SA 39 .637 30.7 12.8 3.8 1.2 3.2 2.8 2.95
.58 Shai G-A OKC 39 .516 22.5 3.0 8.5 1.9 2.9 .9 1.87
.35 Alex Caruso OKC 24 .778 26.0 3.6 2.6 1.8 1.2 1.8 1.83
.29 Devin Vassell SA 39 .660 15.8 5.5 1.8 1.4 1.2 .9 .94
.28 Stephon Castle SA 38 .543 17.0 4.7 7.4 1.0 5.6 .7 .94
.25 Dylan Harper SA 27 .495 15.0 7.1 4.1 2.3 2.1 .0 1.14
.23 Cason Wallace OKC 26 .600 12.0 6.6 2.8 3.8 .4 .0 1.13
.20 Is. Hartenstein OKC 20 .518 13.4 14.1 5.1 .5 3.7 .9 1.29
.19 De'Aaron Fox SA 16 .491 14.8 10.4 6.2 1.2 2.5 .6 1.51
.15 Jalen Williams OKC 11 .492 22.3 6.6 2.2 2.5 1.8 .8 1.69
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e505
.14 Chet Holmgren OKC 30 .563 12.9 7.3 1.4 .3 1.7 .9 .59
.10 Jaylin Williams OKC 16 .628 13.6 7.3 1.9 1.1 1.2 .0 .75
.08 Kenrich Williams OKC 6 .750 23.1 8.0 3.6 1.3 1.5 .0 1.71
.08 Jared McCain OKC 24 .435 13.8 5.1 1.6 .7 2.0 .0 .42
.07 Luke Kornet SA 12 .700 10.9 10.3 1.4 .7 2.2 1.4 .73
.06 Jo. McLaughlin SA 3 .900 31.8 8.2 5.0 .0 2.8 .0 2.35
.05 Isaiah Joe OKC 9 .519 11.2 4.4 3.2 1.8 1.0 .9 .70
.05 Jul. Champagnie SA 36 .397 5.4 6.0 1.7 .7 .3 1.0 .16
.02 Luguentz Dort OKC 20 .536 6.5 7.1 3.0 .9 1.6 .0 .11
.01 Ajay Mitchell OKC 20 .421 6.1 4.0 3.3 2.7 3.0 .4 .06
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e505
-.01 Keldon Johnson SA 20 .410 11.4 4.5 .4 .4 2.3 .0 -.09
-.02 Harrison Barnes SA 9 .417 7.1 5.5 .0 .9 2.8 .0 -.33
-.03 Carter Bryant SA 10 .500 4.4 4.1 2.3 1.6 3.3 1.6 -.35
-.05 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7 .143 2.0 2.5 .0 .0 2.8 1.2 -.93
shooting : SA .550 - .534 OKC + 2.2
rebounds: SA 48.8 - 42.3 OKC + 5.1
turnovers: OKC 14.0 - 18.0 SA + 5.3
Code: Select all
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e505 . SAS min PER WS/48 BPM e505
Shai 157 20.6 .153 6.5 1.87 Vassell 157 15.9 .177 5.8 .94
Holmgren 121 11.5 .080 -1.8 .59 Wemby 156 31.0 .303 13.6 2.95
Wallace 102 19.0 .205 9.7 1.13 Castle 151 13.4 .058 -0.2 .94
Caruso 96 25.9 .283 14.2 1.83 Champagnie 145 6.7 .047 -1.5 .16
McCain 95 8.6 -.035 -5.9 .42 Harper 109 15.3 .110 2.2 1.14
Mitchell 79 5.4 -.075 -4.5 .06 Johnson 78 3.8 -.081 -8.6 -.09
Ha'stein 79 14.3 .094 0.6 1.29 Fox 62 17.0 .076 2.2 1.51
Dort 79 7.8 .065 -1.1 .11 Kornet 46 14.8 .104 1.7 .73
J Will 64 14.1 .140 3.8 .75 Bryant 41 2.9 -.020 -2.2 -.35
Joe 37 13.0 .076 4.6 .70 Barnes 37 4.4 -.032 -5.8 -.33
J Dub 45 19.4 .057 4.7 1.69 McLaughlin 12 31.4 .384 17.8 2.35
Wiggins 26 -14.0 -.463 -18.1 -.93 Olynyk 6 36.4 .126 30.3 2.36
K Will 25 23.8 .319 12.6 1.71 Waters 6 5.3 .093 1.4 -.53
Topić 5 2.4 -.284 -8.5 -.05
. totals 14.4 .093 2.59 .97 . totals 14.9 .110 2.75 1.03
min. correl: .41 .28 .24 .50 .39 .55 .49 .37
Mike G
Posts: 6463 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Tue May 26, 2026 11:13 am
Knicks 4 - 0 Cavs
avg score 118.8 - 99.5
Pyth wins 3.65 - .35 , eWins 2.83 - 1.17
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.57 Jalen Brunson NY 40 .554 25.4 3.2 6.7 .9 2.6 .0 1.75
.55 Karl-A Towns NY 35 .643 19.2 13.7 4.0 1.5 2.7 1.1 1.96
.45 Josh Hart NY 31 .548 18.6 10.0 6.2 2.6 3.1 .0 1.81
.44 Donovan Mitchell Cle 37 .586 26.6 3.8 1.8 2.6 3.6 .5 1.46
.43 OG Anunoby NY 31 .637 21.3 7.3 3.6 1.1 1.0 .9 1.72
.34 Mikal Bridges NY 38 .638 19.5 4.4 2.5 1.4 1.9 .5 1.12
.31 Evan Mobley Cle 37 .544 15.7 9.1 2.5 .3 3.1 1.5 1.03
.24 Jarrett Allen Cle 32 .590 11.9 8.7 1.0 1.2 .6 1.5 .94
.20 Landry Shamet NY 20 1.05 23.6 2.8 2.1 .8 1.0 .0 1.23
.12 Mi. Robinson NY 14 .474 10.8 15.6 .6 1.8 2.2 .6 1.10
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.12 James Harden Cle 37 .496 14.4 5.2 2.5 1.3 4.4 .5 .40
.08 Miles McBride NY 16 .525 10.5 4.7 3.1 1.6 .0 .6 .65
.04 Dean Wade Cle 20 .619 5.5 5.6 3.1 1.5 1.0 .5 .25
.03 Dennis Schröder Cle 12 .313 5.0 3.3 6.2 .8 .0 .0 .28
.02 Max Strus Cle 26 .463 8.9 5.7 3.4 1.1 2.9 .0 .10
.02 Jose Alvarado NY 7 .500 11.9 2.5 3.3 2.2 4.0 1.2 .32
.01 Jaylon Tyson Cle 9 .333 6.1 9.7 2.4 1.0 3.0 .0 .13
.00 Keon Ellis Cle 6 .700 11.7 3.4 1.3 1.6 3.2 .0 .01
-.04 Jordan Clarkson NY 9 .455 8.2 3.1 .0 .0 3.3 1.0 -.58
-.06 Sam Merrill Cle 23 .474 7.3 2.1 1.3 .8 .8 .0 -.31
shooting : NY .602 - .525 Cle + 10.4
rebounds: NY 46.0 - 36.8 Cle + 7.2
turnovers: NY 14.3 - 17.3 Cle + 4.0
Code: Select all
. Cle min PER WS/48 BPM e493 . NYK min PER WS/48 BPM e493
Mitchell 149 18.8 .022 4.7 1.46 Brunson 159 19.9 .213 2.6 1.75
Harden 148 8.3 -.109 -4.2 .40 Bridges 152 16.8 .189 3.1 1.12
Mobley 146 14.6 -.017 1.3 1.03 Towns 138 20.4 .245 6.7 1.96
Allen 126 18.4 .115 2.4 .94 Anunoby 124 21.1 .309 7.1 1.72
Strus 104 6.7 -.052 -3.1 .10 Hart 122 18.8 .214 6.3 1.81
Merrill 92 4.9 -.028 -5.1 -.31 Shamet 79 19.6 .303 9.1 1.23
Wade 79 10.8 .050 4.2 .25 McBride 62 13.5 .226 2.5 .65
Schröder 46 7.0 -.065 -2.1 .28 Robinson 54 16.0 .146 -1.7 1.10
Tyson 35 3.7 -.190 -8.6 .13 Clarkson 35 .1 -.050 -9.0 -.58
Ellis 22 9.2 .028 -2.4 .01 Alvarado 29 9.0 .029 -2.6 .32
. Cle min PER WS/48 BPM e493 . NYK min PER WS/48 BPM e493
Porter 10 -6.2 -.306 -12.4 -1.30 Kolek 9 26.5 .328 7.8 2.01
Bryant 10 31.1 .261 10.9 2.42 Diawara 8 4.2 .068 -1.5 .19
Proctor 10 -6.6 -.253 -15.7 -.70 Dadiet 8 25.2 .240 4.4 1.58
Tomlin 8 26.3 .271 7.2 1.14 Hukporti 7 35.9 .620 18.3 3.22
. totals 11.7 -.015 -0.44 .59 . totals 17.9 .219 4.12 1.41
min. correl. .61 .14 .33 .68 .63 .21 .32 .72
Game by game eWins:
Code: Select all
. Cle 1 2 3 4 . NYK 1 2 3 4
Mitchell .20 .08 .04 .12 Brunson .28 .13 .11 .04
Mobley .12 .07 .07 .04 Towns .07 .14 .15 .19
Allen .06 .10 .06 .02 Hart .11 .20 .07 .07
Harden -.04 .12 .05 -.01 Anunoby .05 .11 .15 .11
Wade .07 -.02 -.02 .01 Bridges .07 .11 .14 .02
Schröder .00 .02 .00 -.01 Shamet .04 -.02 .04 .14
Strus -.04 -.03 .12 -.03 Robinson .07 .00 .00 .05
Tyson .00 .01 .01 -.01 McBride -.04 .04 .00 .08
Ellis -.03 .00 .01 .02 Alvarado .02 .00 -.01 .02
Merrill .02 -.08 .01 -.01 Clarkson -.02 .00 .00 -.02
. total .35 .30 .34 .18 . total .65 .70 .66 .82
Mike G
Posts: 6463 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Wed May 27, 2026 10:55 am
Thunder 3 - 2 Spurs
avg score 113.8 - 112.0
Pyth wins 2.76 - 2.24 , eWins 2.63 - 2.37
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e500
.97 Vi. Wembanyama SA 39 .608 27.1 11.2 3.1 1.2 2.9 2.8 2.51
.72 Shai G-A OKC 39 .530 23.2 2.8 8.4 2.0 3.5 .9 1.85
.56 Alex Caruso OKC 25 .780 29.6 3.4 3.6 2.4 1.6 1.4 2.26
.39 Stephon Castle SA 37 .592 18.7 4.8 6.9 1.3 5.1 .6 1.05
.32 Cason Wallace OKC 27 .597 11.2 6.2 3.4 3.6 .3 .5 1.20
.29 Is. Hartenstein OKC 22 .569 13.6 15.2 4.9 .3 3.7 1.0 1.31
.28 Devin Vassell SA 39 .587 13.1 5.1 2.1 1.6 1.2 .8 .74
.23 Chet Holmgren OKC 30 .598 14.5 8.6 1.3 .5 2.1 1.0 .75
.22 Dylan Harper SA 27 .486 12.5 7.3 4.0 1.8 2.5 .0 .83
.22 De'Aaron Fox SA 19 .414 10.7 8.2 6.8 1.8 2.0 .4 1.17
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e500
.16 Kenrich Williams OKC 7 .885 28.0 8.5 2.6 1.0 1.0 .0 2.12
.15 Jalen Williams OKC 9 .492 21.0 6.6 2.2 2.6 1.8 .8 1.64
.14 Jul. Champagnie SA 35 .477 8.5 6.5 1.5 1.2 .6 .8 .39
.10 Jaylin Williams OKC 16 .588 12.0 7.8 2.0 .9 1.0 .0 .64
.09 Jo. McLaughlin SA 3 .929 41.6 6.9 4.2 .0 2.4 .0 3.13
.09 Jared McCain OKC 26 .444 14.5 4.8 1.3 .6 2.2 .0 .37
.06 Isaiah Joe OKC 8 .519 10.9 4.5 3.2 2.8 1.0 .9 .77
.04 Luke Kornet SA 11 .636 9.1 9.7 1.2 .6 2.0 1.3 .39
.02 Luguentz Dort OKC 19 .524 7.2 7.3 2.4 .8 1.3 .0 .11
.01 Keldon Johnson SA 20 .450 13.7 5.1 1.0 .3 2.6 .0 .05
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e500
.00 Ajay Mitchell OKC 16 .421 5.7 4.1 3.3 2.8 3.0 .5 .01
-.01 Carter Bryant SA 9 .591 9.6 4.6 2.1 1.4 3.1 1.5 -.09
-.04 Harrison Barnes SA 8 .417 6.2 5.1 .0 .8 2.6 .0 -.48
-.06 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5 .143 1.6 2.6 .0 .0 2.8 1.3 -1.12
shooting : OKC .551 - .545 SA + .8
rebounds: SA 47.2 - 43.4 OKC + 2.9
turnovers: OKC 14.6 - 17.4 SA + 3.6
Code: Select all
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e500 . SAS min PER WS/48 BPM e500
Shai 194 21.0 .162 6.4 1.85 Vassell 193 13.7 .119 4.3 .74
Holmgren 151 13.4 .104 -1.0 .75 Wemby 193 27.9 .253 10.8 2.51
Wallace 133 18.4 .209 9.8 1.20 Castle 185 15.9 .091 2.5 1.05
McCain 128 8.0 -.048 -6.7 .37 Champagnie 175 9.7 .065 0.4 .39
Caruso 124 27.8 .318 15.3 2.26 Harper 134 13.2 .064 0.6 .83
Ha'stein 110 16.0 .125 1.6 1.31 Johnson 98 6.6 -.064 -6.9 .05
Dort 97 8.0 .066 -1.6 .11 Fox 94 14.1 .017 0.5 1.17
J Will 81 11.7 .117 2.1 .64 Kornet 54 11.5 .049 -1.0 .39
Mitchell 79 5.0 -.075 -4.5 .01 Bryant 46 6.4 .002 -0.7 -.09
J Dub 45 19.2 .055 4.7 1.64 Barnes 41 3.8 -.055 -6.2 -.48
. OKC min PER WS/48 BPM e500 . SAS min PER WS/48 BPM e500
Joe * 39 12.7 .088 5.2 .77 McLaughlin 15 35.4 .436 20.2 3.13
K Will 37 26.0 .359 13.9 2.12 Olynyk 8 37.4 .261 26.7 2.81
Wiggins 27 -13.9 -.442 -18.1 -1.12 Waters 6 5.3 .051 1.4 -.53
Topić 6 1.9 -.234 -8.0 -.23 Biyombo 4 -7.2 -.244 -17.3 -1.98
. Plumlee 4 31.3 .452 19.8 2.94
. totals 15.1 .110 2.94 1.05 . totals 14.8 .091 2.49 .95
min. correl: .45 .24 .22 .50 .58 .73 .69 .53
* - Isiah Joe replaces Jalen Williams in the #10 spot for minutes correlations.
Mike G
Posts: 6463 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri May 29, 2026 10:48 am
Spurs 3 - 3 Thunder
avg score 113 - 110
Pyth wins 3.53 - 2.47 , eWins 3.27 - 2.73
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
1.26 Vi. Wembanyama SA 37 .608 29.3 11.6 3.1 1.4 3.1 3.0 2.82
.78 Shai G-A OKC 37 .510 23.3 2.6 7.7 1.7 3.5 .8 1.74
.59 Stephon Castle SA 36 .595 20.0 5.0 7.5 1.3 4.6 .5 1.35
.48 Alex Caruso OKC 24 .748 24.0 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.3 1.2 1.63
.37 Dylan Harper SA 26 .541 16.0 7.6 4.3 1.5 2.4 .0 1.19
.36 Is. Hartenstein OKC 21 .554 14.8 14.2 4.9 .3 3.2 .9 1.41
.36 Devin Vassell SA 37 .614 13.6 4.8 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.0 .81
.34 Cason Wallace OKC 26 .643 12.2 5.8 3.0 3.8 .8 .5 1.10
.32 Chet Holmgren OKC 29 .592 14.1 9.4 1.3 .6 1.8 1.3 .91
.29 De'Aaron Fox SA 20 .376 10.0 8.1 7.5 1.5 1.6 .3 1.18
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
.22 Jul. Champagnie SA 33 .496 9.1 6.9 1.7 1.2 .8 1.1 .54
.17 Jared McCain OKC 26 .455 15.2 4.2 2.2 .9 2.3 .0 .54
.15 Kenrich Williams OKC 9 .682 19.7 9.2 2.8 .7 1.4 .0 1.42
.11 Jalen Williams OKC 9 .477 18.0 5.1 2.3 2.0 2.9 .7 1.01
.08 Jaylin Williams OKC 18 .540 8.8 8.3 2.0 .7 .7 .0 .39
.08 Jo. McLaughlin SA 4 .722 22.0 10.1 5.3 .0 2.9 .0 1.81
.05 Luke Kornet SA 11 .607 8.1 9.9 1.4 .5 2.0 1.0 .35
.04 Isaiah Joe OKC 9 .486 8.5 5.1 3.1 1.8 1.3 .6 .40
.04 Keldon Johnson SA 19 .472 14.3 5.1 .8 .6 2.4 .0 .18
.00 Ajay Mitchell OKC 13 .421 6.0 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.0 .4 .00
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
-.01 Carter Bryant SA 9 .536 8.4 6.1 1.7 1.1 3.1 1.2 -.12
-.02 Luguentz Dort OKC 20 .422 6.1 6.0 1.9 .9 1.3 .3 -.09
-.04 Harrison Barnes SA 9 .500 8.2 4.3 .0 .6 2.5 .0 -.35
-.06 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6 .265 4.9 1.8 .0 .0 3.1 .9 -.90
shooting : SA .552 - .536 OKC + 2.1
rebounds: SA 48.0 - 43.2 OKC + 3.6
turnovers: OKC 14.3 - 16.7 SA + 3.0
Game-by-game eWins thru 6 :
Code: Select all
1-6 . OKC 1 2 3 4 5 6
.78 Shai G-A .13 .16 .18 .11 .14 .06
.48 Caruso .15 .10 .14 -.03 .21 -.08
.36 Hartenstein .02 .06 .03 .09 .09 .07
.34 Wallace .02 .09 .13 -.01 .09 .02
.32 Holmgren .01 .04 .04 .05 .09 .09
.17 McCain .00 .06 .10 -.07 .01 .08
.15 K Williams .00 .00 .00 .08 .07 -.01
.11 J Dub .11 .03 .01 -.04
.08 J Will -.02 .03 .14 -.06 .01 -.02
.04 Joe .00 -.02 -.01 .08 .01 -.02
.00 Mitchell .01 .02 -.03
-.02 Dort -.01 .05 -.02 .00 .00 -.04
-.06 Wiggins -.01 .00 .00 -.04 -.01 .00
2.73 total .41 .62 .71 .21 .69 .10
Code: Select all
1-6 . SAS 1 2 3 4 5 6
1.26 Wembanyama .33 .16 .13 .29 .06 .29
.59 Castle .03 .08 .03 .15 .11 .20
.37 Harper .19 .02 .00 .03 -.02 .15
.36 Vassell .02 .07 .11 .10 -.01 .07
.29 Fox .07 .12 .03 .07
.22 Champagnie .03 .02 .01 -.01 .09 .08
.08 McLaughlin .00 .03 .01 .02 .04 -.01
.05 Kornet .00 .01 -.01 .06 -.02 .00
.04 Johnson .01 .01 -.03 .00 .02 .03
-.01 Bryant .00 -.01 -.02 .01 .02 .00
-.04 Barnes -.01 .00 -.02 .00 -.02 .00
3.27 total .59 .38 .29 .79 .31 .90