Rose Wins MVP And There's Apparently Little Doubt About It

[greyberger]

Unless you're sure that Howard's supporting cast was more than 10 wins worse than Rose's this year...

How can you compare the supporting cast in Chicago and Orlando and not conclude that Chicago has the much better team?

The Magic's second best player this regular season was Jameer Nelson. Who's their third best player, and how does he compare to Deng or Noah?

I'm not a huge fan of the "start with team wins (or pyth wins) and work your way backwards" approach. But even accepting your premise I think you'll find many people who disagree with your conclusion.

[YaoPau]

How can you compare the supporting cast in Chicago and Orlando and not conclude that Chicago has the much better team?

The Magic's second best player this regular season was Jameer Nelson. Who's their third best player, and how does he compare to Deng or Noah?

Ryan Anderson rates pretty well in most advanced metrics. +3.4 regularized 4-year APM, +2.9 this year. He's rated out better in APM than Noah (+2.4 4-year, +0.6 this year), and he had a higher PER this year, higher WS/48, and he and Noah played similar minutes (1424 for Anderson, 1576 for Noah).

Jameer had a 1.6 APM this year, Bass was +0.4, JRich was +0.8 (and a 19 PER player in Phoenix before coming over midseason and doing much worse). It's not like Howard had no help, and to respond to erivera's point, we're officially in biased mode when a 4-2 series loss against a bad Hawks team is somehow proof of Howard's greatness being undermined.

Dwight's regularized 1-year was +4.4 compared to Rose's +3.3, which I'm guessing is well within two standard errors. I'm not sure if the bv 2010-2011 numbers include playoff numbers or not, but they have Dwight at +14.1 compared to +11.7 for Rose, and those numbers are within half of one standard error of each other.

I just don't see anything that says Dwight was necessarily more impactful per possession, and that's not even factoring in Rose's clutch performances to win games, or the value difference between getting a #4 vs a #1 seed. Boozer's 1-year APM was just +0.5, Rose played 400+ minutes in a starting lineup with both Keith Bogans and Kurt Thomas, Rose didn't have a single teammate who could score in isolation or break down the defense... I'm not doubting the Bulls have the better supporting cast, but more than 10 wins better? Where is that coming from?

My take on it is there's no way to prove that, at least by any methods that I know of. If you want to argue that Dwight was a legitimate contender, then fine, but I haven't seen any concrete evidence that the media was way off in voting Rose.

[Mike G]

There's a good chance the Heat and Bulls will meet before the Finals, and I'm guessing Rose will be the "mvp" of at most 2 games between them.

[bbstats]

Tom Thibadeau for MVP.

[greyberger]

"If you want to argue that Dwight was a legitimate contender, then fine, but I haven't seen any concrete evidence that the media was way off in voting Rose."

Proof that it's in the eye of the beholder, I guess. My point is - if Ryan Anderson is your third best player, that's a problem, because he played in all 82 games and ended up 7th on the team in minutes.

If Jason Richardson is the third best Magic player, that's a problem too - because he's only there for his shooting and he didn't shoot well (or often - 25.5% usg in PHX, 18.6 in Orlando).

So you've got

Dwight Howard
2.Jameer Nelson (Assists and scoring, mediocre defense, turnover problem)
3a. Ryan Anderson (Shooting, 22 minutes per game, 7th in total minutes in the 9-man rotation ahead of Arenas and Q)
3b. Jason Richardson (Scoring, off-year in usage and efficiency, not much else)
4. Brandon Bass (garbage man, efficient scoring)
5. Turkoglu (washed-up driftwood)

And the ugliest bench ever assembled for 30 mil+. That, to me, is a stinky supporting cast.

As for who has more "impact per possession", I don't think we can learn that by starting with wins (or pyth wins) and working our way backwards. The metrics that attempt to directly measure what happens in the possessions the players are most directly involved in, on offense and defense, generally point to Howard as the more productive/efficient of the two... but let's save that for another day, or a few months in the past.

[Philosopher]

It's true that a very strong case can be made for Howard. If the Magic's win total hadn't declined since last season, it would be quite a race.

That said, I think it's wrong to compare Rose's win to Iverson's 2001 win. Rose certainly deserved to be in the conversation, and he's an acceptable choice.

[greyberger]

At the risk of reviving arguments that were tedious months ago...

Rose is not a crazy choice for MVP. What's crazy is how there was precious little conversation to begin with. Howard was simply not an option, as Phil points out, because the Magic weren't as good this year and weren't a one or two seed. Lebron's disqualified several times over, for various reasons, and doesn't get a fair shake from the logic MVP voters employ anyway.

They always start with team wins versus expectations and proceed by making a little mental exercise where each player is responsible for so and so many wins. Only the best players are considered in this cowboy calculus - you're not allowed to consider coaches or any player who isn't known nationally as contributing wins. For example your mental MVP list for the Thunder should split 40 or so of their wins between Durant and Westbrook in some fashion, leaving 15 for the rest of the team. Do this for every team (remember, you're only allowed to name a player and give him specific credit if he's a established, marketable piece - two to four names per team, please!) and it's obvious that Rose is your choice.

After all, Boozer and Noah were injured and never played that well in the regular season! Boom, credit this kid with 30 wins, start the coronation in early March because this team is going to finish high and we need to jump out in front of it!

[Mike G]

Maybe MVP voters should have to take a lie detector test, along the lines of:
Would you really take (Derrick Rose) over (LeBron , Dwight , etc) for your team?

Of course, such a mental exercise removes a player from his context. And still, if LeBron goes down with an injury, or Dwight, how many more games do their teams lose? In both cases, their minutes would be taken by close to replacement-level backups. Not so much in Chicago?

[YaoPau]

Right, context is a real factor. MVP isn't an award for best player in the game currently, it's for who was most valuable to their team during the season. Rose turning a likely low playoff seed Chicago team into the #1 overall seed makes him a legitimate contender. If the regular season is about putting your team in the best playoff position, you can't top what Rose did.

I can understand the arguments with 15 games left in the season when several teams were in the hunt for top seeds. But with the Bulls closing winning 12 of 13 and getting the #1 overall, and with Rose's APM climbing to 8th overall in the process, putting him within 1 standard deviation of the league's top APM, why still the backlash?

In response to greyberger (and yes I agree it's a tired argument, but it's also the only active one on this board...)

Proof that it's in the eye of the beholder, I guess. My point is - if Ryan Anderson is your third best player, that's a problem, because he played in all 82 games and ended up 7th on the team in minutes.

Noah is the Bulls' 3rd best player, and ended up with about the same minutes as Anderson. Why are Anderson's lack of minutes a problem for the Magic, but Noah's aren't for the Bulls? Rose's supporting cast this season isn't his healthy supporting cast, it comes from the minutes they actually provided. Noah played 40% of the possible minutes, Anderson played 36%.

If Jason Richardson is the third best Magic player, that's a problem too - because he's only there for his shooting and he didn't shoot well (or often - 25.5% usg in PHX, 18.6 in Orlando).

I don't see how JRich playing well with the Suns then bad alongside Howard is an argument that Howard is valuable. Rose was playing with a bunch of preseason cast-offs (Bogans, Brewer, Watson, Kurt Thomas) and those players are now seen as valuable pieces again after playing well this season. Does that make Rose less valuable?

2.Jameer Nelson (Assists and scoring, mediocre defense, turnover problem)
3a. Ryan Anderson (Shooting, 22 minutes per game, 7th in total minutes in the 9-man rotation ahead of Arenas and Q)
3b. Jason Richardson (Scoring, off-year in usage and efficiency, not much else)
4. Brandon Bass (garbage man, efficient scoring)
5. Turkoglu (washed-up driftwood)

Nelson is a +1.0 defender via 6-year APM, rating him near the league's top PG defenders. Turnover problem is unfair, he's basically league average for point guards with his USG% and AST%.

Ryan Anderson and JRich talked about above.

Brandon Bass is no garbage man. The guy is primarily a jumpshooter, and a very good one.

The Magic had their fair share of driftwood, but they played alright with the starters. The Magic were still a 104 DRating team with Howard off the floor, and just -1 net per 100 poss overall. Not as good as the Bulls' bench, but I don't think that explains the 10 win difference.

You said "proof is in the eye of the beholder", implying that you think there's proof that Rose's teammates were 10 games better, but you didn't reference stats that actually prove that, even though the stats supposedly saying otherwise is the whole crux of this anti-Rose argument. I really think the anti-Rose crew is underestimating just how bad the Bulls' offense would've been without Rose this season. He also has arguably the most dominant defensive numbers in the NBA on Synergy, for what it's worth.

[Bobbofitos]

I really think the anti-Rose crew is underestimating just how bad the Bulls' offense would've been without Rose this season. He also has arguably the most dominant defensive numbers in the NBA on Synergy, for what it's worth.

Rose has been getting carved up by Jeff Teague in the 2nd round. Jeff Teague.

[YaoPau]

- bum ankle
- playing 40mpg
- averaging 30 shot attempts and 9apg on the offensive end
- isn't even guarding Teague in 4th quarters, Korver is. Teague barely scored on Rose last night
- 4 game sample size vs. 81 games of evidence

[Mike G]

Rose turning a likely low playoff seed Chicago team into the #1 overall seed makes him a legitimate contender. If the regular season is about putting your team in the best playoff position, you can't top what Rose did...

First, this isn't an anti-Rose argument, and if you look around you'll find that I've ranked him in the top 3 for contributing wins, and did so early in the season. He's certainly deserving of MVP consideration, but not such that there exists no argument for anyone else.

Forget Dwight for the moment and suppose that the best player is just possibly also the most valuable. What statement could one craft that describes the Heat without LeBron? Possibly a playoff team?

Last year, a 47-35 team; this year, they gain Bosh while losing their #2, 3, 4, and 5 players (arguably O'Neal, Beasley, Haslem, Wright). How did they gain 11 wins? From barely-average SRS to #1 in the league?

Which team is "in the best playoff position"? The Heat are .14 PPG better than the Bulls. Home court is about +3 pts, for one of 7 games, divided by the probability that it goes 7.

[greyberger]

Noah is the Bulls' 3rd best player, and ended up with about the same minutes as Anderson. Why are Anderson's lack of minutes a problem for the Magic, but Noah's aren't for the Bulls? Rose's supporting cast this season isn't his healthy supporting cast, it comes from the minutes they actually provided. Noah played 40% of the possible minutes, Anderson played 36%.

Even after the mega-trade Anderson didn't get more than about 25 MPG at his peak. The Magic coaching decided that he was a complimentary piece, a role player, that something was keeping him from a larger role. Was it defense, fit, or bad coaching keeping his minutes down? The comparison to Noah is to point out how good Noah, Deng and even Boozer (in a down year) are when they _do_ play. If Anderson was one of the two or three best players on the team there were certainly minutes for him to take.

I don't see how JRich playing well with the Suns then bad alongside Howard is an argument that Howard is valuable. Rose was playing with a bunch of preseason cast-offs (Bogans, Brewer, Watson, Kurt Thomas) and those players are now seen as valuable pieces again after playing well this season. Does that make Rose less valuable?

Richardson did not play well in Orlando. The Magic did not get much out of him - whatever success you think the four seed in the east represents, they did it without the contributions they were hoping for (from Rich and Hedo) when they made the mega-trade. I'm taking the position that this (meager?) success is largely due to Dwight Howard, and you seem to be taking the position that Howard is to blame for the poor play of his teammates.

The Magic got the best season a center has had on offense since Shaq, according to offensive win shares. And while Shaq's dominant seasons came for a team in the top five of offensive efficiency, the 2011 Magic were just 14th with Dwight Howard. Their non-Howard offense was pretty atrocious.

Nelson is a +1.0 defender via 6-year APM, rating him near the league's top PG defenders. Turnover problem is unfair, he's basically league average for point guards with his USG% and AST%.

Fifteen guards this year over 20% usg, 30% ast rate and 25 MPG - Nelson is 13th out of 15 in TOV% at 17.6. Admittedly, 16.0 would be 'average' in this context, but I'm not sure how valuable Nelson is on offense to start while scoring at league average efficiency and posting average assist numbers for a starting point guard.

Brandon Bass is a bench scorer. I guess you can't call him a garbage man on the same team as Turkoglu and Arenas, because if he were doing his job they'd be on the curb outside the arena.

Now of course this is only one side of the comparison. I should also detail how Rose's teammates in the regular season were not a motley crew of misfit toys, one-way players and driftwood like Dwight's. I should talk about the bench and defense and coaching on the Bulls, and write about how the team survived that early-season stretch without Noah and Boozer - the answer is not simply "Derrick Rose". But if I do that, this really will become yet another iteration of the same debate that's been going on for months, about a tedious award nobody here really cares about and I can't find the motivation for that...

[YaoPau]

So much backwards logic...

Your argument against Ryan Anderson is he isn't good because his coach didn't play him. You also said Hedo Turkoglu was washed-up driftwood, but SVG gave him minutes.

Richardson did not play well in Orlando. The Magic did not get much out of him - whatever success you think the four seed in the east represents, they did it without the contributions they were hoping for (from Rich and Hedo) when they made the mega-trade. I'm taking the position that this (meager?) success is largely due to Dwight Howard, and you seem to be taking the position that Howard is to blame for the poor play of his teammates.

You made up that last part. I said it's bad logic to credit Howard because of JRich's poor play.

Fifteen guards this year over 20% usg, 30% ast rate and 25 MPG - Nelson is 13th out of 15 in TOV% at 17.6. Admittedly, 16.0 would be 'average' in this context, but I'm not sure how valuable Nelson is on offense to start while scoring at league average efficiency and posting average assist numbers for a starting point guard.

Why would you use TOV% for point guards? Use TOV per possession, or Per 36. Rondo has a 24 TOV%, Nash has a 22 TOV%, and nobody would accuse them of being turnover problems. Change TOV% to TO/36 and Nelson is right in the middle.

Brandon Bass is a bench scorer. I guess you can't call him a garbage man on the same team as Turkoglu and Arenas, because if he were doing his job they'd be on the curb outside the arena.

Bass is a starter.

To Mike G, MVP is a regular season award, maybe unfortunately, especially this year. If it was given after this season ends, it'd probably be a tossup between Dirk, LeBron, Wade, and maybe that's how it should be. But the Heat are in the better playoff position now because they're so much healthier than the Bulls/Celtics, and also cause they're really good. LeBron's regular season performance didn't change that much, especially when compared to how Rose's regular season performance helped the Bulls. Different perspective: what would Chicago's chances be against the Heat if the Bulls ended up with the #2 seed instead of the #1?

Last year, a 47-35 team; this year, they gain Bosh while losing their #2, 3, 4, and 5 players (arguably O'Neal, Beasley, Haslem, Wright). How did they gain 11 wins? From barely-average SRS to #1 in the league?

I don't understand that point. They gained 11 wins because they added Bosh AND LeBron. O'Neal and Wright had nice years last year, but Beasley and Haslem might have been net negatives. Overall that's not a big loss, and I don't think it's crazy to wonder if Bosh alone made up for all of it. Are you saying LeBron deserves MVP because he added around 11 wins?

[Mike G]

... LeBron's regular season performance didn't change that much, especially when compared to how Rose's regular season performance helped the Bulls. ..
.. O'Neal and Wright had nice years last year, but Beasley and Haslem might have been net negatives. Overall that's not a big loss, and I don't think it's crazy to wonder if Bosh alone made up for all of it. Are you saying LeBron deserves MVP because he added around 11 wins?

It's not crazy to wonder, but it doesn't look right to me. Beasley, Haslem, O'Neal, and Wright are credited with 20.5 WS for 2010, Bosh with 10.3 this year. That tradeoff suggests 4 to 8 fewer wins, taken alone.
LeBron with 15.6 WS this year. Seems to add up, intuitively and otherwise.

Wade remained healthy this year, had career highs in OReb, DReb, eFG%; near bests in TS%, Blk, TO, ORtg, DRtg.
They lost four players totaling 8000 minutes in 2010. Without LeBron, this team is a mess.