APBRmetrics

Single game plus minus - which I assume is what he was talking about - is definitely quite close to baloney

Also, if you're a) concerned with only one team, b) have dozens of years of experience and c) see each single play from the sidelines, then I'd probably ignore plus minus as well

For everyone that doesn't fall under a)+b)+c) combined, plus minus data is useful

In 429 playoff minutes last year, Kawhi's on-off was +22.2
Thru 7 games this year, it was -4.0, but 8th game was a 14-pt win.

Call it baloney or accept that as you wish.

Could recognize its limits and "truth" less abruptly but whatever.



Spurs' 20 most used lineups: 10 cumulatively positive, 10 negative. Best that could be done? Probably not.

Heat

5 guys in top 100 on RPM is pretty good, but no one in top 40. Olynyk 41st.

5 guys were or are in or near bottom 100 (one gone).

Dragic at a disappointing -1.1. Meh boxscore metrics too. Not interested in trade? Not sure he'd bring that much. Of Dragic, Johnson & Waiters, I'd be trying to trade all of them. Unlikely to work though.

5 of 6 most used Dragic lineups negative. 7 of top 10 most used player pairs negative. Fairly god with J Johnson and Ellington. Pretty bad with Waiters and Winslow. Stick with him and I think they stick in second tier.

Probably fairly satisfied all things considered. Could be worse. But don't see them getting out of second round.

3 of 5 most used team lineups are negative. Only one barely used over 4 minutes per game. Not much discovered, proven. Lots of dinking.

Vanilla RAPM updated as of games played on 1/9:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

Curry takes the lead back. LeBron still not playing defense.

Heat are 9-9 when Whiteside does not play.
When he does play, they are 16-8; and 12-3 when he goes 24 minutes or more.

Somehow, his raw on-off is just 0.6; his on-court just 0.3
Miami is 25-17, but they should be 20-22, by their MOV.
They could just as easily be 15-27; in 14th place, rather than 4th, in the East.

Whiteside, almost plus 2 on overall RPM, same as last season. Clear best on team. Looking at raw plus minus is worth doing (it is what happened) but passing on RPM doesn't make sense to me.

Plus 4 on DRPM, best estimate in league. Plays better on road this season. A team likely would miss that. As it would the leader of its most used lineup. Whiteside plus 2, Richardson plus 0.5, Dragic, Winslow, Waiters cumulatively more than -4. As a lineup those 5 go plus 5 per 100 pissession, exceeding their average results. Spo completely passes on using #2-4 best on RPM on team in that lineup or some of the others better than what he does use. Pretty low minutes is possibly a direct mistake and it also means he is using dink lineups heavily, typically a mistake compared to concentration on best lineups. Tough to pick the micro winners at a high enough rate for a better record. So they sit in second tier and don't do so well without Whiteside.

It makes sense roughly where they are, given what they have and what they doing. It doesn't make the best apparent sense to do what they are doing, or to have retained all they did, still have and probably will still have after the deadline. But mistakes are hard to undo. First you have to recognize them and there seems to be either lack of recognition or even denial on some of them, namely Dragic, Winslow and Waiters (especially the latter two).

Spo doing some hard to justify things... and some other saving good things. Not terrible but not optimal.

The Kings hoped spending on vets last summer would help make legit push for playoffs. it didn't work and the misappropriated time and salaries used on them probably set them back a year or two more.

"The plan" is now to sit "the previous plan" vets frequently. The plan should have been and still should be to bring in different decision makers and weed out those vets if possible and some to many of the young guys too.

They have no one in top 150 of RPM. I'd say that it is mainly an indictment of management, ownership and coaching, though their past & current analysts who "don't use" RPM or had lots of cautions & concerns about it may share some responsibility for where they are at, depending on unknown advice & degree of influence.

From a brief look at player / team performance by position, I'd explore Fox at SG, Hield & Richardson more at SF, Bogdanovic more at SG, Jackson some at PF, WCS more at PF, Skal more or entirely at C.

Mason, Hield, Bogdanovic, WCS, Kuofos has performed well in short minutes. I'd rather see more of that than most of the alternatives. Fox, Bog, Temple, Skal and Hield, Temple, Bog, Skal are quads worth trying more too, with Kuofos or going smaller.

Looking back after the fact at last night's game, the first quad mention started and did well. The first full lineup didn't happen because Mason is out. The remaining quad played a tiny amount. Various trios more, but trios are kinda vague compared to quads and 5 man lineups. The third suggested did not play (unless I missed something).

Have they tried Mason Fox (or Bog) Hield WCS SL? Not more than 10 minutes and probably not at all. Who have Mason-Fox and WCS-SL pairs looked? I'll have to check later (or maybe someone else could? my phone can't handle some database interfaces.) If results warrant, you could keep 4 of those 6 on court a long time.

Last night, the 3 best lineups with 4 of these guys on court went plus 16 in about 17 minutes. The top 5 quads and 5 man lineups had on average 3&change of these guys. Might be worth a chart of all games, all lineups that had 3, 4 and 5 of these guys together. Is having 4 or 5 instead of 3 key? Do the Kings know? Have they acted on it?

Of the 10 most used lineups for season, those with positive cumulative results had 2.8 of these guys. The negative lineups had just 2.2. 2.8 is probably too low. 2.2 ridiculous. Two clear most used lineups to date? Just 2 in each. Focus on this angle does not seem to have been a priority for the Kings to date. At least the coach.

Was this casual analysis in last 1-2 hours useful? I could do more. Especially I had more reason to.

Porzingis, newly supersized role, virtually no change in his ws/48 and bpm, which are both just league average. RPM is good but just good. Does he go higher to match the hype? He might but it is not certain.

Small yr to yr changes per minute except for usage. About as many down as up. Blocks might be only impressive box score stat. Rebounding pretty meh or disappointing to me.

D Bender, still sux, almost no improvement. Very worst RPM for a PF.

"Best player in Europe" Bogdan Bogdanovic, meh in NBA by box score. Unimpressive -1.5 RPM for an experienced player.

"Rising Euro star" Hezonja, much improved but still way below average on boxsore metrics and only modestly about replacement player on RPM.

Saric up to average on box score stats. But how much higher? RPM is about -0.7. Alright for second year player but still below average for PFs.

Bogdan better in box score with more minutes. RPM? I might be able to check that progression later.

Josh Jackson's play has picked up in last 10 games.

Tatum and Baynes raw plus minus in last 10 games, less than half as good as previous games. Smart went from over plus 4 to nearly 0. Irving has improved, Brown and Horford about the same and all these are good. Rozier and Morris about the same and fairly close to neutral. Ojeleye looking weak by various metrics.

Winslow going from meh boxscore and weak raw plus minus to meh boxscore and lots weaker raw plus minus in last 10 games.

Aaron Gordon shooting bad lately. What is the right usage level for him in long-run? I know it depends on teammates. The actual usage rate has climb to 24%. High enough? too high? WS?48, BPM and RPM all see him as about average performer overall right now. No clear upward yr to yr trend on any of these metrics.

Galinari so far has to be one of the worst performing big money signees this season.

I'd be very willing to trade Aaron Gordon for good return. At this point I would not want to give him a huge contract or continue to consider him the most important player of the future. The drop off after the good ir lucky start was just too big. They need a total tear down if they are going to rise above meh.

League average FT/FGA is lowest in 70 years (since 2nd year of NBA). The future is with shooting not driving for fouls.