2017-18 quick observations

[Crow]

TWolves dead last in defensive efficiency. Did Chicago Thibs get too much credit and the players and / or front office too little?

Sixers with tough schedule but 1-4.

Offensive efficiency leaguewide is off to a bit sluggish of a start.

3 teams with best records in west are all off to really strong starts on rebounding both ways, especially defensive were the are 1-2-3 in league. By effort and / or luck.

[Crow]

Sixers are currently bottom 7 or worse on 5 Factors. About average on 2, above average on one. Early SOS is estimated at a bit stronger than average.

Denver still needs several trades, if they can ever fairly see, get, accept market values.

Dallas is bad. 4 Factors in bottom 8. But a few positives. 2 top 10s and one close. Overall though both offensive & defensive efficiency are worse, unadjusted. Early SOS is estimated at a bit weaker than average.

[Crow]

Pace at 29 year high. FTAs per game at 25 year high. Difference due to offensive rebounding decline and somewhat elevated turnovers.

3pt fg% tied for 14 year low compared to season end data but up a tick from a day or two ago.

In 2015-16 season leaguewide total ts% equaled ts% from 3pt shooting. In 2016-17 a gap grew of 1.5% between them with 3pt ts% being worse. So far this season that gap has doubled. 3pt attempts still rising and probably will but less 3pt FG % recovers it is hurting total ts%.

[J.E.]

The T-Wolves did OK on the defensive end until they put Muhammad into the starting lineup...

[Crow]

# of lottery picks in last draft who are currently above average on WS/48 and BPM? 1 and 2 respectively. 9 of 14 are below replacement level on BPM.

7 of best 8 on WS/48 were taken after pick 18.

Minute vary and all are small but there are probably more meh and bad at the top of this supposedly great draft than hyped.

[Mike G]

Rookies tend to start slow. Later in the season, shots will fall, and turnovers will diminish.
In the last 10 seasons, the top 30 rookies thru 5 games according to GameScore:

Code: Select all

2009  MORROW, BEASLEY, Rose, Fernandez, Love, J Thompson
2010  Jennings, Lawson, Flynn, R Williams
2011  WALL, GRIFFIN
2012  Irving, Shumpert
2013  LILLARD, A DAVIS, Kidd-Gilchrist, Waiters
2014  CARTER-WILLIAMS
2015  - - - 
2016  TOWNS, Okafor
2017  Embiid
2018  SIMMONS, TATUM, Fox, Kuzma, Markkanen, Collins, Ball
  

In all-CAPS are the top 10, avg GmSc > 12.0
Some of this year's listing have not yet played 5 games, so they may not be there when they do. Yet others may have ascended by then.
Simmons ranks #2 in the interval, after MCW in 2013-14

Looking at the top 100 first-5-games rookies since 1984 -- also about 3 per year avg -- the only season with more than 6 is 1992-93.
http://bkref.com/tiny/aszyZ

[Crow]

Magic have gone from near last on team efg% last season to near first this season so far. 45% from 3 helps. Haven't followed close enough to guess how much of the change is sustainable. One of the bigger surprises.

[Crow]

Simmons playing a bit better than I expected. Embid not as well overall as most expected.

[Crow]

Rockets so far without Paul are playing comparatively slow, not getting to the line and are only modest above average on both ends of the court. On the Four Factors, they have 2 in top 10, 3 in middle 10 and 3 in bottom 10.

Nuggets are in top 12 on 4 factors, bottom 10 on the other 4. Pretty disappointing start overall and especial for Milsap and Jokic. Is Malone on hot seat?

Jazz are shooting ok despite not practicing Moreyball but the rest of the offensive factors are garbage. Defense is mixed and just good. Plenty of thinking / work ahead to improve.

Lakers playing the fastest but second worst on offense. Defense is keeping them from further embarrassment.

[Crow]

The top 8 teams on SRS are almost all doing better than average on both offensive & defensive efficiency.


Note: Others can use this thread if they want to.

[Crow]

GSW's team ts% is 63%. Up from their league leading 59% and 60% in 2 previous seasons. Most teams would be thrilled to have 1-2 players at this level.

Currently top 11 on 4 factors but bottom 12 on the other 4.

[Crow]

Dion Waiters with worst in Heat's main rotation WS/48 and BPM. Tied for worst PER before tonight. Well below league average on all these metrics.

D Howard putting up 16pts / 16 rebounds with second best raw plus minus. They should be happy with that. But few Hornets have positive plus minus. Need more than Kemba and Dwight. Need a better backup PG.

Rubio on Jazz? So far career best efg% but still well below league. TS% is at league average, slightly above last season. By distance he is all over the place in small sample. Career worst at rim, terrible from 3-10 feet, career best from 10-24 feet and typically weak from 3.

Mavs, 2nd highest on 3pt fgas. But 4th lowest on shots at rim and 7th highest on long 2s. Average FT rate.

Gallinari shooting horribly but so far not a problem for team results. A. Rivers shooting the 3 and getting steals but not that much else positive in the box score.

Lillard off to career worst start from every distance but 3, where is above his average.

Korver with a hot shooting start.

[Crow]

Dion with big offensive production tonight but lots of teammates had that going too. fwiw, 3rd biggest raw plus minus and a narrow loss.

[Mike G]

East teams vs West teams went 6-1 last night. It's now E 20-15 on the year.

[Crow]

Hadn't noticed that. So used to the west advantage. East has played more road games and has more road wins than West and more of them than its home wins. May not last.