2017-18 quick observations

[Crow]

Spurs are 24th on team efg%. I don't think any titlewinner in at least 20 years was lower ranked. 2004 Pistons were 20th. 1998 Bulls 19th. (I didn't check all, just most likely to be low ranked.) Not that anyone outside San Antonio is suggesting a title for them, but this does suggest a design and/ or implementation way out of title contender norm. Celtics are the only other top 4 seed below median on efg%. OKC and a few other lower seeds lie in between fwiw. 3 of the top 4 teams on title probability and the Cavs are all in top 7 on efg%.

Spurs were 10th last season. Maybe they could get close to median if Kawhi gets back. Celtics with Hayward would probably be better. OKC... would take a major trade to get to median. Not that median is that likely to be enough to get to conference finals or, much less, win a title.

[Crow]

Patty Mills is the top Spur- for now- on RPM and in 50th place.

In limited time Kawhi's DRPM recovered modestly from last season's low estimate. The ORPM estimate is way down.

[Crow]

Teams are averaging more than 10 3pt makes per game for first time in league history. Attempts will make 30 per game late this season or early next season. Headed to 40? Good chance. 35 almost certain without an impactful rule change or changes.

[Crow]

Celtics seeking a 1st rounder for Smart. Ha. Worst RPM of his career (though that is only mildly negative, it is much less good than his strong rookie showing) and terrible shooting. Probably will get few bids or maybe none. Likely only a meh 2nd rounder and expiring meh.

[Crow]

Lakers free agent dreams for 2018? Probably not going to happen as hoped. 2019? Jimmy Butler at near 30? Not likely. Kawhi? Seems miscast for that role but maybe. Klay Thompson at 30? Not enough, by a lot. Maybe 2020? Maybe. If they don't commit to not enough sooner. Which they probably will.

[Crow]

I was told DeRozan had figured out the 3 ball, before season and then maybe a month ago. Under 29% over last 10 games. Under 34% for season.

Woj on Lowe Post said "only one level of superstar above DeRozan". Well maybe that tier has 48 players in it... because he is still 49th on RPM estimate.

[Crow]

Using ORPM and DRPM to find comps for Lonzo Ball, these are somewhat close: Dejounte Murray (but Ball less extreme on both), TJ McConnell and Shaun Livingston.

Looking at shooting, McConnell good from 2 and 3, Livingston good from 2, Murray not good at either but better from 2 than Ball, worse from 3.

[Crow]

I criticized Altman / Gilbert the day before the last trade then general liked the trade and then had some confusion about how to rate what they'd done. Time is needed to observed the impact of the trade. Heard one NBA executive supposedly call the trade a grand slam. Hearing that I knew it needed to be recognized / remembered how poorly they looked before the trade. What is the right grade? Probably Incomplete. A mix of A & F or B & D isn't easy to resolve.

[Crow]

Dennis Smith, lousy shooting for season, has been even worse in last 10 games. Raw plus minus was bad, is now almost twice as bad recently at almost -11 / game. 89th of 97 on RPM for PGs.

[Crow]

Irving with gaudy individual stats over 10 games but also by far worst raw plus minus at nearly -9 / game. Horford 2nd worst but only about half as bad.

DeRozan's 3 pt game slips another tick below average.

Mudiay, essentially worst raw plus for Nuggets
Devin Harris replaces him in that role and starts out with by far best on team raw plus minus. Mudiay on Knicks, immediately in contest for last place on raw plus minus.

Wiggins awful season, just got much worse over 10 games. Who was defending that max deal? Really bad contract.

Markkanen and Jabari Parker head up the bottom third of PFs on RPM. Tightly bunched with R Holmes, Yabusele, Kaminsky, Ivan Rabb and other weak impact players.

Oladipo's 3 point shot is way off lately. A/TO has been a meh 1.5.

Fox passes Hield for 2nd place on team for points per game. Probably takes first place from Randolph real quickly. Hield set as a role player?

Kuzma down quite bit.

JaMychal Green down from neutral RPM estimate last season to -3 & change. RPM likes him less than the mainstream box score metrics. They have him as below average but more modestly.

[Mike G]

Dennis Smith, lousy shooting for season, has been even worse in last 10 games. Raw plus minus was bad, is now almost twice as bad recently at almost -11 / game. 89th of 97 on RPM for PGs.

wow, right.
The last 11 games are a stark contrast to the previous 11; which were also quite distinct from those before.

Code: Select all

Gms    3fg%  eFG%   FT%   TS%   TO%   ORt   DRt
1to28  .304  .437  .661  .458   15.5   89   110
29-39  .396  .512  .778  .544   14.0  106   111
40-50  .279  .411  .628  .442   16.8   88   114

Assist% has steadily increased in these intervals, while Reb% have steadily dropped.
Mavs were 10-18 in his first 28 (and 1-7 without him).
They were 5-6 in his 'good' stretch, and 2-9 in this latest spell.

[Crow]

Warriors and Rockets have a minutes weighted average ages of 29 plus, typical for a title winner. So do the Spurs, though it probably isn't their year. Cavs were maybe too old at 31 but adjusted back into the prime pocket.

Thunder, previously too young, are borderline. Probably still too young despite George and Anthony. The bench is still too young and meh at best. Westbrook is pushing 30 but may not be as championship mature as many of those that won one. Wizards, similar. Toronto is too young on average age by history too, because of bench. Celtics way too young.

Perhaps the way the salary cap is managed has changed things. But until younger than normal wins regularly it will be a measuring stick. Right now the 2015 Warriors are one of the rare exceptions with a weighted average age below 27 (one of two I think), even under 28. GMs with title aspirations frequently try to make it with an average age sub 27, often well below, and they almost always come up short. Some don't learn from it (or enough).

It is possible to be too old especially in your stars. History provides a pretty clear guide of the prime pocket.

[Crow]

I haven't paid much attention to Raptors but they are dong well. Two way strong, decent shot distribution, 11 man rotation. DeRozan's assistmaking has risen to a high level. Only factor weakness is fouling but because the other defensive factors are good, they probably get a pass on that. Good early offense.

Playoffs are different and they still have to prove they can play better there from Lowy & DeRozan on down.

[Crow]

Carlisle's Mavs are 6 games under expected wins. That is effective tanking and / or suspect coaching. Almost no coach ever finishes the season further off expected.

Imo he has utterly failed to make Barnes a meaningful piece / leader. Smith is rightfully been given space to grow, but not excited by his bad overall stats or team results with. Matthews is still a negative value.

Lots of people call him the 2nd or 3rd best coach... Been awhile since that was plausible by current works.

[Crow]

The Spurs have one of the least intelligent looking or effective shot distributions in the league. They are very very low on "Moreyball". It also shows in very bad team efg%, ft/fga and a below average team offensive efficiency.