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Re: Comparing BPM and DarkoPM
Posted: Sun Nov 12, 2023 3:42 pm
by kmedved
1) Yes - DARKO is always a projection. The historic trajectory is a snapshot of where DARKO projected a guy to be as of that game. I don't "go backwards" and update with "well, in retrospect, this uptick in performance was more sustainable than DARKO thought."
The LOESS smoothing can sort of be thought of doing that however (but very crudely).
2) The DARKO projections are always the last datapoint. The trend line is just to aid with visualization, and as noted above, are not out of sample.
Re: Comparing BPM and DarkoPM
Posted: Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:16 am
by Crow
Thanks for the reply. Wanted to sure.
Chet and Victor are less than a point apart of DPM and the prior is part of that.
I'll be watching what happens to the large BPM difference. Holmgren 3pt fg% bumps over 50% at the moment.
Re: Comparing BPM and DarkoPM
Posted: Mon Nov 13, 2023 12:04 pm
by DSMok1
Crow wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:16 am
Thanks for the reply. Wanted to sure.
Chet and Victor are less than a point apart of DPM and the prior is part of that.
I'll be watching what happens to the large BPM difference. Holmgren 3pt fg% bumps over 50% at the moment.
Holmgren's 3-point percentage is rightly deemed by DPM to be unsustainable. BPM just measures what he's actually done.
Re: Comparing BPM and DarkoPM
Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2023 6:59 pm
by Mike G
3-pt shooting may be contagious. OKC currently is tied with Dal for best 3FG% at .395. This is the best team 3FG% since the 2021 LAC.
These Thunders and those Clippers both are/were avg or below league 3PAr (3FGA/FGA) in spite of high accuracy.
Several of those Clipps maintained career-high 3fg%, and almost all were above their career success rate:
Code: Select all
'21 Clippers 3FG 3fg% 3FG 3FG%
Paul George 171 .411 2042 .381
Marcus Morris 140 .473 1252 .376
Reggie Jackson 122 .433 1059 .344
Nic Batum 110 .404 1599 .365
Kawhi Leonard 101 .398 994 .388
Luke Kennard 100 .446 700 .435
Pat Beverley 56 .397 914 .372
Lou Williams 45 .378 1457 .351
Pat Patterson 40 .357 630 .369
Serge Ibaka 39 .339 1709 .359
Terance Mann 38 .418 200 .381
Amir Coffey 23 .411 136 .367
Rajon Rondo 19 .432 449 .324
Dem. Cousins 8 .421 426 .331
Career totals on the right. How is this explained?
Pat P. was at the end of his career; Serge was also fading fast.