Why didn't Larry Nance play more than 36 mpg in his prime and just 33.4 for his career?
Why did a relatively inefficient Chris Webber avg 37 mpg for his career, with 5 seasons over 39?
why the emphasis on min/g?...
from 0506-1314, a long 9 years, manu ginobili scored 22.9 pts/40min, joe johnson a similar 20.9 pts/40min, monta ellis 21.5 pts/40min. since your method of evaluation seems to prefer assists, all 3 threw for assists at high rates for SGs...
yet ginobili played just 27 min/g while johnson/ellis played 38/36 min/g. are they "better" than ginobili simply because they played more minutes?...
ginobili shot much better than either, and was the best defender of the 3. i have ginobili rated as the "better" player and it's not even close, and thus i would rank ginobili higher...
funny - so do you...
you have ginobili ranked in the 40s, johnson in the 160s, ellis in the 320s, despite the very large discrepancy in min/g...
so you ignore that much larger min/g difference, but not the smaller min/g difference for nance/webber?...
ginobili compared to johnson/ellis shot much better scoring at a similar /40min rate and was the better defender, nance compared to webber shot much better scoring at a similar /40min rate and was the better defender - over a very long stretch of time...
With Webber's Ast% of 20.2, vs 11.8 for Nance, not a factor in that TO%, it seems Webber was much the more versatile offensive player.
webber throws for more assists so he's more versatile than nance? and that means he's better?...
dirk nowitzki never threw for as many as 270 assists in a season, webber did 7 times. was webber more versatile than nowitzki?...
through the age of 34 nance shot better overall than nowitzki did (57.6% vs 57.0% ScFG%), did not score as much (20.4 vs 25.1 pts/40min), but was similar in offensive efficiency, and was the much better defender...
yet you have the more versatile webber ranked lower than nowitzki and higher than nance...
Nance apparently shrank away from the ball in big games. It's great to have a high shooting%, but not if you don't want to shoot.
nice dig...
nance was a great defender for a long time, was not named to an all-D team until the ages of 30, 33, and 34. he was one of the very best non-C two way players the league has seen over the past 4 decades in terms of wins generated...
your methodology overvalues assists and undervalues player defense and offensive efficiency...
you have ben wallace ranked in the 140s, yet have players like derrick coleman, antoine walker, and alvan adams ranked higher. wallace was the bill russell of his time, and his defense/rebounding generated wins at very high rates for a number of years - rates much higher than coleman, walker, or adams...
you have alvin robertson ranked in the 210s, richard hamilton in the 110s. robertson was the league's premier backcourt defender that also forced TOs at very high rates for close to a decade - who also threw for assists at a high rate for a non-PG. from 8586-9192 he threw for the 2nd most assists among non-PGs (drexler the most)...
again if you could account for defense players like wallace and robertson - and nance - would rank significantly higher...
NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
Because the coach wants to win, he tends to give more minutes to better players. Different coaches opted to give Webber more minutes than others gave Nance. Webber was named to 5 all-NBA teams, Nance to none. These might be regarded as corroborations that Webber was the better player. Those whose job it was to make such decisions seem to have thought so.why the emphasis on min/g?...
Nothing's ignored; all is incorporated. Here are the relevant numbers (per 36 minute rates, standardized) :you have ginobili ranked in the 40s, johnson in the 160s, ellis in the 320s, despite the very large discrepancy in min/g...
so you ignore that much larger min/g difference, but not the smaller min/g difference for nance/webber?...
Code: Select all
player Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk T
Manu Ginobili .576 22.3 5.3 5.3 3.0 1.8 2.8 .4 33.2
Joe Johnson .525 17.8 4.3 3.9 1.9 .9 2.1 .2 25.5
Monta Ellis .515 19.0 3.5 4.5 2.4 1.8 2.9 .3 26.7
Ranking is based on the T rate and the equivalent totals. To get totals, you have to play minutes.
eTotal = T * Min/36
Equivalent totals:
Code: Select all
. ePts eReb eAst eStl eTO eBlk eT
Ginobili 18609 4454 4451 1509 2349 334 28868
Johnson 22295 5427 4904 1123 2584 257 30883
Ellis 14339 2667 3382 1372 2180 249 19544
Take the square root of these eT, and multiply it by T rate.
Do that again for playoffs alone. Then add the two.
Code: Select all
. Min MinPO eT eTpo cred credPO Cr+po
Ginobili 29979 5685 28868 5076 5633 2441 8074
Johnson 45057 3881 30883 2429 4473 1146 5618
Ellis 27192 1061 19544 644 3739 573 4312
In this case, a partial reason he played only 27 mpg was that he was with much the better teams. This is as extreme such a case as any I can think of in NBA history. It results in him getting just 2 all-star nods, while Johnson has a preposterous 7.
Yes. Dirk is the better scorer, Webber better at everything else.was webber more versatile than nowitzki?...
Ah, well there's no one number that ranks players. It's a bunch of numbers. That's what formulas do: take in a lot of numbers and produce a result.yet you have the more versatile webber ranked lower than nowitzki and higher than nance...
Those players were more productive, more versatile (perhaps more skilled), and as such accumulated more production.you have ben wallace ranked in the 140s, yet have players like derrick coleman, antoine walker, and alvan adams ranked higher. wallace was the bill russell of his time, ...
Wallace didn't pass like Russell -- sometimes I think people just don't value assists adequately -- and not great for all that many years. We also know he got a whole lot more blocks at home than he did on the road.
With just 7 seasons at >2200 minutes, he had barely half of Russell's career as a full-time player.
He ranks among Bobby Jones, Bernard King, Kevin Love, and Hal Greer. Isn't that good company?
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
Webber was named to 5 all-NBA teams, Nance to none.
nance was named to the all-D team 3 times, webber zero...
Dirk is the better scorer, Webber better at everything else.
???
you do realize that in webber's 3 best scoring seasons (99-00, 00-01, 01-02) he shot overall worse than nowitzki did in 17 of his 18 seasons in the league...
nowitzki not only scored better than webber but shot better too...
up thru the age of 34 nowitzki shot better than webber not just on 2s, but also on 3s, and on FTs, was the better defensive rebounder, committed fewer fouls, and committed far less turnovers (1.9 vs. 2.8 TO/g over 30000+ minutes) than webber...
you seem to think that a player that throws for alot of assists makes him "versatile"...
ben wallace rebounded, got steals, blocked shots, yet committed very few turnovers at rates better than almost any player the past couple of decades. doesn't that make him "versatile"?
he is just 1 of just 3 players with 8 seasons of 800+ rebs, 100+ steals, and 150+ blocks, the others being olajuwon and drob. no one else did it more than 4 times - doesn't that make him versatile?...
sometimes I think people just don't value assists adequately
just what value do assists have? they certainly do not correlate with winning...
every time you evaluate a player by giving him "points" for assists you are double counting. a basket scored as the result of an assist still counts the same as a basket that does not...
i thought we had this discussion awhile back when comparing john stockton and terrell brandon in 95-96, when brandon had 1/2 the assists stockton did while shooting worse but generated wins at a better rate...
He ranks among Bobby Jones, Bernard King, Kevin Love, and Hal Greer.
like nance and wallace, if you included defense in your rankings bobby jones would rank much higher. from 7677-8485 he was the league's premier defensive forward, yet also shot better overall than all but 2 forwards (dantley, maxwell) during all that time. he also had the 2nd most steals and the 5th most blocks over those 9 years among all forwards. how's that for versatility? he also never threw for more than 264 assists in a season, and just twice more than 226 assists, similar assist numbers to nowitzki...
nance was named to the all-D team 3 times, webber zero...
Dirk is the better scorer, Webber better at everything else.
???
you do realize that in webber's 3 best scoring seasons (99-00, 00-01, 01-02) he shot overall worse than nowitzki did in 17 of his 18 seasons in the league...
nowitzki not only scored better than webber but shot better too...
up thru the age of 34 nowitzki shot better than webber not just on 2s, but also on 3s, and on FTs, was the better defensive rebounder, committed fewer fouls, and committed far less turnovers (1.9 vs. 2.8 TO/g over 30000+ minutes) than webber...
you seem to think that a player that throws for alot of assists makes him "versatile"...
ben wallace rebounded, got steals, blocked shots, yet committed very few turnovers at rates better than almost any player the past couple of decades. doesn't that make him "versatile"?
he is just 1 of just 3 players with 8 seasons of 800+ rebs, 100+ steals, and 150+ blocks, the others being olajuwon and drob. no one else did it more than 4 times - doesn't that make him versatile?...
sometimes I think people just don't value assists adequately
just what value do assists have? they certainly do not correlate with winning...
every time you evaluate a player by giving him "points" for assists you are double counting. a basket scored as the result of an assist still counts the same as a basket that does not...
i thought we had this discussion awhile back when comparing john stockton and terrell brandon in 95-96, when brandon had 1/2 the assists stockton did while shooting worse but generated wins at a better rate...
He ranks among Bobby Jones, Bernard King, Kevin Love, and Hal Greer.
like nance and wallace, if you included defense in your rankings bobby jones would rank much higher. from 7677-8485 he was the league's premier defensive forward, yet also shot better overall than all but 2 forwards (dantley, maxwell) during all that time. he also had the 2nd most steals and the 5th most blocks over those 9 years among all forwards. how's that for versatility? he also never threw for more than 264 assists in a season, and just twice more than 226 assists, similar assist numbers to nowitzki...
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
Yes, Dirk is a premier shooter and scorer in NBA history. In raw Pts/100poss, he leads Webber 32.7 - 28.3 -- an advantage of 15.5%???Dirk is the better scorer, Webber better at everything else.
nowitzki not only scored better than webber but shot better too...
up thru the age of 34 nowitzki shot better than webber not just on 2s, but also on 3s, and on FTs, was the better defensive rebounder, committed fewer fouls, and committed far less turnovers...
Due to their disparate shooting%, I bump up his 'effective' scoring rate, and Webber's down a bit, to get their standardized per36 Sco rates at 25.4 and 20.4 -- advantage +24.4% to Dirk.
Good to know Dirk was the better D-Reb guy thru the same age. He's also very low on O-Reb, and I only count Rebounds, without distinction.
We already covered TO -- Webber's were pretty good, and Dirk's are elite.
You see Dirk Nowitzki at #17 all time, all things considered. I'd take him in a heartbeat over Webber.
I do believe assists have value and are important to winning. All else equal, the guy who passes is more versatile.you seem to think that a player that throws for alot of assists makes him "versatile"...
just what value do assists have? they certainly do not correlate with winning...
every time you evaluate a player by giving him "points" for assists you are double counting. a basket scored as the result of an assist still counts the same as a basket that does not...
My seasonal stats estimate the % of a player's points which were assisted. Those who are especially reliant on the assist get something less than 100% of the credit for their points. Those who score effectively while still looking to pass get >1.00 factor.
Assists are not all equal. Players whose home assists are inflated get their assists deflated to 'away' levels.
Assisting on a 3 should have more value than assisting on a 2, so I estimate that, too.
You might say I double-count everything; though if you add up the T rates of a lineup, it's something like 60% more than the points scored. You may get a block and a rebound on the same play; a foul may also be a turnover; etc.
Yes. Eventually you argued that Steve Kerr would generate roughly the same wins/min. as Stockton, because some of their stats were similar, and assists don't matter?i thought we had this discussion awhile back when comparing john stockton and terrell brandon in 95-96...
I include defense -- what gets into the record. I don't try to quantify awards or reputation. Good defenders get more minutes than they otherwise would and generally more playoff success. Those are big elements in these rankings.if you included defense in your rankings bobby jones would rank much higher.
Jones was hampered physically and averaged 27 mpg. Among those with as few total minutes (30,018), he ranks #32. The 31 above him include 11 HOF members and 9 current players in or near their prime.
Of all players with < 28 mpg career avg, Bobby Jones ranks behind just 3: Ginobili, Lovellette, and Jermaine O'Neal.
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
Eventually you argued that Steve Kerr would generate roughly the same wins/min. as Stockton, because some of their stats were similar, and assists don't matter?
exactly - and in which you wrote:
In Brandon's career year of '96, he was apparently as good as Stockton was in any year.
despite brandon throwing for just 1/2 the assists stockton did while shooting worse overall...
same with don buse...
was there a better PG than don buse (phoenix suns) in the league in the late 70s? 7778-7980 he played the 3rd most minutes among all PGs but threw for just the 12th most assists among those same PGs. his 5.6 ast/40min those 3 years was one of the very lowest rates among starting PGs, less than 1/2 kevin porter's 13.0 ast/40min...
the suns those 3 years were the 2nd best defensive team in the league and had the 3rd best regular season W-L record, and it was buse who spearheaded their defense, being named all-D 1st team all 3 years...
kevin porter played less minutes than buse those 3 seasons and threw for more than twice as many assists while also shooting better overall...
so tell me, who was the better PG during that 3 year stretch? who generated the most wins for their team - porter or buse?...
I include defense -- what gets into the record.
and evidently not the defense a player plays outside of his steals, blocks, and def rebs...
Those are big elements in these rankings.
not big enough...
which is why you rank a player like isiah thomas over maurice cheeks and a bunch of non-deserving forwards over bobby jones and larry nance, as they are players who were excellent defenders outside of their steals, blocks, and defensive rebounding, and who routinely generated wins at high rates because of their overall defense and excellent offensive efficiency despite not scoring a ton nor throwing for lots of assists...
exactly - and in which you wrote:
In Brandon's career year of '96, he was apparently as good as Stockton was in any year.
despite brandon throwing for just 1/2 the assists stockton did while shooting worse overall...
same with don buse...
was there a better PG than don buse (phoenix suns) in the league in the late 70s? 7778-7980 he played the 3rd most minutes among all PGs but threw for just the 12th most assists among those same PGs. his 5.6 ast/40min those 3 years was one of the very lowest rates among starting PGs, less than 1/2 kevin porter's 13.0 ast/40min...
the suns those 3 years were the 2nd best defensive team in the league and had the 3rd best regular season W-L record, and it was buse who spearheaded their defense, being named all-D 1st team all 3 years...
kevin porter played less minutes than buse those 3 seasons and threw for more than twice as many assists while also shooting better overall...
so tell me, who was the better PG during that 3 year stretch? who generated the most wins for their team - porter or buse?...
I include defense -- what gets into the record.
and evidently not the defense a player plays outside of his steals, blocks, and def rebs...
Those are big elements in these rankings.
not big enough...
which is why you rank a player like isiah thomas over maurice cheeks and a bunch of non-deserving forwards over bobby jones and larry nance, as they are players who were excellent defenders outside of their steals, blocks, and defensive rebounding, and who routinely generated wins at high rates because of their overall defense and excellent offensive efficiency despite not scoring a ton nor throwing for lots of assists...
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
So, how do you quantify a player's defense?...evidently not the defense a player plays outside of his steals, blocks, and def rebs...
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
So, how do you quantify a player's defense?
aside from their steals, blocks, and defensive rebounding rates, a measure for how much a player increases or decreases the eFG% of the players they guard, on a scale of -5.0% for the best to +5.0% for the worst defenders...
i.e. an excellent shot defender (aside from any blocks) would on average decrease the eFG% of the players they guard by 5.0%, a poor defender would increase it by 5.0%...
for example i have joe dumars rated as a -5.0% defender in a number of seasons, kiki vandeweghe a +5.0% defender in quite a few seasons...
also now with the SportVu data am working on a method for defenders to increase/decrease the FGAs of the players they guard from what they typically average, in conjunction with increasing/decreasing their touches on offense - a work in progress...
aside from their steals, blocks, and defensive rebounding rates, a measure for how much a player increases or decreases the eFG% of the players they guard, on a scale of -5.0% for the best to +5.0% for the worst defenders...
i.e. an excellent shot defender (aside from any blocks) would on average decrease the eFG% of the players they guard by 5.0%, a poor defender would increase it by 5.0%...
for example i have joe dumars rated as a -5.0% defender in a number of seasons, kiki vandeweghe a +5.0% defender in quite a few seasons...
also now with the SportVu data am working on a method for defenders to increase/decrease the FGAs of the players they guard from what they typically average, in conjunction with increasing/decreasing their touches on offense - a work in progress...
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
Excellent concept. But how do you know what number to assign to Dumars or to Kiki?
Or that it's 5% less than (95% of) .500 = .475 ?
Since you speak in percents, I'll guess it's the more drastic cut of .050
In the 6 year interval 1988-1993, Joe Dumars played 51 games (incl. 4 playoff series) against the Bulls. He went 36.5 mpg in these contests.
In that time, Michael Jordan shot just .498 eFG% vs the Pistons. His 6 year RS eFG% was .537, so that's a .039 dropoff in these games.
As I recall, he was mostly guarded by Dumars, and there was quite a lot said about this matchup.
Dumars was all-NBA defensive 1st team 4 times, 2nd team once, 1989-93.
So there's a decent sample size of games and minutes, with lots of big games vs the greatest scorer ever, to support the .050 dent Joe D could put on a shooting%.
But the Pistons also put Jordan on the FT line a lot more. In the 51 games, his FTA/FGA ratio was .475, vs .366 overall in those seasons.
Consequently, the Pistons only reduced his TS% by .022, from .595 to .573.
Joe was a low fouler normally, just 1.7 per 36 min. Vs. Jordan, his foul rate was 2.5/36 -- a 50% increase.
The upshot is that while reducing MJ's eFG% gained the team 0.8 PPG, his extra FT gave 0.5 of them back.
The Pistons as a team held opponents to .018 less than league avg in the same 6 years. If Joe D defended 1/5 of the shots taken against them -- at .050 less than normal eFG% -- the other 4 positions would only have to be .010 better than normal, to result in a team shot defense of -.018
Replace Dumars with another -.010 defender, and the team is of course -.010 overall. So his -.050 rating means he was responsible for some 44% of the team's total above-avg shot defense? While he's in the game, it's more than half?
Are you saying he reduces a .500 shooter (by .050) to .450 ?an excellent shot defender (aside from any blocks) would on average decrease the eFG% of the players they guard by 5.0%...
Or that it's 5% less than (95% of) .500 = .475 ?
Since you speak in percents, I'll guess it's the more drastic cut of .050
In the 6 year interval 1988-1993, Joe Dumars played 51 games (incl. 4 playoff series) against the Bulls. He went 36.5 mpg in these contests.
In that time, Michael Jordan shot just .498 eFG% vs the Pistons. His 6 year RS eFG% was .537, so that's a .039 dropoff in these games.
As I recall, he was mostly guarded by Dumars, and there was quite a lot said about this matchup.
Dumars was all-NBA defensive 1st team 4 times, 2nd team once, 1989-93.
So there's a decent sample size of games and minutes, with lots of big games vs the greatest scorer ever, to support the .050 dent Joe D could put on a shooting%.
But the Pistons also put Jordan on the FT line a lot more. In the 51 games, his FTA/FGA ratio was .475, vs .366 overall in those seasons.
Consequently, the Pistons only reduced his TS% by .022, from .595 to .573.
Joe was a low fouler normally, just 1.7 per 36 min. Vs. Jordan, his foul rate was 2.5/36 -- a 50% increase.
The upshot is that while reducing MJ's eFG% gained the team 0.8 PPG, his extra FT gave 0.5 of them back.
The Pistons as a team held opponents to .018 less than league avg in the same 6 years. If Joe D defended 1/5 of the shots taken against them -- at .050 less than normal eFG% -- the other 4 positions would only have to be .010 better than normal, to result in a team shot defense of -.018
Replace Dumars with another -.010 defender, and the team is of course -.010 overall. So his -.050 rating means he was responsible for some 44% of the team's total above-avg shot defense? While he's in the game, it's more than half?
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
Are you saying he reduces a .500 shooter (by .050) to .450 ?
yes...
Or that it's 5% less than (95% of) .500 = .475 ?
no...
it may not sound like much, the range of 45% to 55% being a player shooting just 9/20 vs 11/20 in a game, but over the span of a season it adds up...
Consequently, the Pistons only reduced his TS% by .022
in the simulation a player's defensive FG% allowed rating (the -5.0% to +5.0% rating) is separate from their rate of fouls committed...
also players other than dumars committed fouls against jordan...
Joe was a low fouler normally, just 1.7 per 36 min. Vs. Jordan, his foul rate was 2.5/36 -- a 50% increase.
very good shot defenders with low rates of fouls committed are like gold, because they play great defense over major minutes - dumars, kawhi leonard, jimmy butler, etc...
even at a 50% jump in fouls committed by dumars that's still a low foul rate (compared to many big men for example)...
The Pistons as a team held opponents to .018 less than league avg in the same 6 years. If Joe D defended 1/5 of the shots taken against them
those 6 years dumars played 1/7 of the pistons total regular season minutes, so more like approximately 1/7...
at .050 less than normal eFG% -- the other 4 positions would only have to be .010 better than normal, to result in a team shot defense of -.018. Replace Dumars with another -.010 defender, and the team is of course -.010 overall. So his -.050 rating means he was responsible for some 44% of the team's total above-avg shot defense? While he's in the game, it's more than half?
those 6 years the pistons allowed an eFG% (minus out BS) of 49.7%, best among the 27 teams, and 2.3% below league average (52.0%). so the "average" individual player defensive shot rating on the pistons would be -2.3% (again not including shot blocking)...
also those 6 years i think i have rodman rated as -5.0% every year, salley and mahorn -4.0% to -5.0% a number of those seasons, players like dantley and aguirre in the +3.0% to +5.0% range...
each year you look at a team's players' minutes played multiplied by their defensive shot rating, and when added up it should match the team average player rating (minus out BS)...
Excellent concept. But how do you know what number to assign to Dumars or to Kiki?
each team each season has an average player defensive shot rating - the team eFG% (minus BS) minus the league average. that's the starting point...
watch alot of basketball - watch players on defense, note blowbys, strips, anything a defender does to prevent the opposition from scoring (other than what is already measured like steals and blocks)...
use any available data - easier now with SportVu the past couple of years, Synergy the past decade, hoopdata.com, 82games.com, etc. before that...
prior to those watch everything you can, read everything you can, to make assessments...
once values are assigned to players the beta testing begins, to make sure team defensive 2pt, 3pt, eFG% allowed are on the mark...
yes...
Or that it's 5% less than (95% of) .500 = .475 ?
no...
it may not sound like much, the range of 45% to 55% being a player shooting just 9/20 vs 11/20 in a game, but over the span of a season it adds up...
Consequently, the Pistons only reduced his TS% by .022
in the simulation a player's defensive FG% allowed rating (the -5.0% to +5.0% rating) is separate from their rate of fouls committed...
also players other than dumars committed fouls against jordan...
Joe was a low fouler normally, just 1.7 per 36 min. Vs. Jordan, his foul rate was 2.5/36 -- a 50% increase.
very good shot defenders with low rates of fouls committed are like gold, because they play great defense over major minutes - dumars, kawhi leonard, jimmy butler, etc...
even at a 50% jump in fouls committed by dumars that's still a low foul rate (compared to many big men for example)...
The Pistons as a team held opponents to .018 less than league avg in the same 6 years. If Joe D defended 1/5 of the shots taken against them
those 6 years dumars played 1/7 of the pistons total regular season minutes, so more like approximately 1/7...
at .050 less than normal eFG% -- the other 4 positions would only have to be .010 better than normal, to result in a team shot defense of -.018. Replace Dumars with another -.010 defender, and the team is of course -.010 overall. So his -.050 rating means he was responsible for some 44% of the team's total above-avg shot defense? While he's in the game, it's more than half?
those 6 years the pistons allowed an eFG% (minus out BS) of 49.7%, best among the 27 teams, and 2.3% below league average (52.0%). so the "average" individual player defensive shot rating on the pistons would be -2.3% (again not including shot blocking)...
also those 6 years i think i have rodman rated as -5.0% every year, salley and mahorn -4.0% to -5.0% a number of those seasons, players like dantley and aguirre in the +3.0% to +5.0% range...
each year you look at a team's players' minutes played multiplied by their defensive shot rating, and when added up it should match the team average player rating (minus out BS)...
Excellent concept. But how do you know what number to assign to Dumars or to Kiki?
each team each season has an average player defensive shot rating - the team eFG% (minus BS) minus the league average. that's the starting point...
watch alot of basketball - watch players on defense, note blowbys, strips, anything a defender does to prevent the opposition from scoring (other than what is already measured like steals and blocks)...
use any available data - easier now with SportVu the past couple of years, Synergy the past decade, hoopdata.com, 82games.com, etc. before that...
prior to those watch everything you can, read everything you can, to make assessments...
once values are assigned to players the beta testing begins, to make sure team defensive 2pt, 3pt, eFG% allowed are on the mark...
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
Right about 15% of the total minutes. But if he's their ace perimeter defender, doesn't he get the toughest shooters? -- who might take more shots than others?The Pistons as a team held opponents to .018 less than league avg in the same 6 years. If Joe D defended 1/5 of the shots taken against them
those 6 years dumars played 1/7 of the pistons total regular season minutes, so more like approximately 1/7...
Anyway
I get this. Wondered if his extra .8 fouls per game accounts for Jordan's extra FT.players other than dumars committed fouls against jordan
Also have to wonder if Dumars' D was "better" because he could play Jordan tighter, knowing the enforcers under the basket would tackle him, should he blow by.
Why do you remove blocks from the equation? It's a missed shot, so you're effectively overstating league eFG% -- in this case, you say .520, but it's really ~.490those 6 years the pistons allowed an eFG% (minus out BS) of 49.7%, best among the 27 teams, and 2.3% below league average (52.0%).
There are infinite ways the player rates can sum to the team rate. One guy is not that good, another is not that bad ...... once values are assigned to players the beta testing begins, to make sure team defensive 2pt, 3pt, eFG% allowed are on the mark...
OK, as soon as I find the time and inclination.watch alot of basketball ...
use any available data - easier now with SportVu the past couple of years, Synergy the past decade, hoopdata.com, 82games.com, etc. before that...
prior to those watch everything you can, read everything you can,..
Bravo for doing it. Have you got a list of historic players and their estimated eFG% allowed?
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
But if he's their ace perimeter defender, doesn't he get the toughest shooters?
yes, which is why when a team's best perimeter defender is also their primary perimeter defender (guarding the opponent's # 1 option on offense) he typically generates wins at a high rate (unless his offense is poor or he forces very few turnovers)...
Also have to wonder if Dumars' D was "better" because he could play Jordan tighter, knowing the enforcers under the basket would tackle him, should he blow by.
yes and no - i'm sure what you are saying is often true, but not every perimeter defender on detroit those years was excellent, even with enforcers backing them up...
Why do you remove blocks from the equation?
blocks are missed FGAs assigned to specific defenders - we don't have data (until very recently) for non-blocked missed FGAs as being due to specific defenders. thus the simulation treats them separately...
every FGA theoretically has a chance to be blocked by any of the 5 defenders on the floor. if it's not blocked, the simulation then reverts to looking at defenders' defensive FG% allowed ratings, whether there was a switch (to see just who was the defender on that specific FGA), etc...
There are infinite ways the player rates can sum to the team rate. One guy is not that good, another is not that bad...
welcome to my world...
when watching games the number one thing i am looking for specifically is player defensive tendencies, and how those match up with available data...
as this defensive player shot rating is the only subjective parameter in the simulation, i spend an inordinate amount of time assigning these ratings. even after that there is still an option for the user to change them for what-if scenarios...
Have you got a list of historic players and their estimated eFG% allowed?
just in the simulation, back to 77-78...
perhaps now you can see how valuable players are (in terms of wins generated) that are not only very good to excellent shot defenders (outside of blocks) but that also force turnovers (steals/offensive fouls drawn) and/or block shots...
i.e. larry nance, bobby jones, mo cheeks, alvin robertson, kawhi leonard, etc...
for an extreme example, on the 84-85 utah jazz mark eaton (-5.0%, 8.8% BS, i.e. outstanding defense) played 34 min/g. when i simulate them with him playing 34 min/g but change his defense (to +5.0%, 0.0% BS, very poor defense), they win on average 11-12 games less per average 82 game season...
that's 11-12 wins due just to his defense...
yes, which is why when a team's best perimeter defender is also their primary perimeter defender (guarding the opponent's # 1 option on offense) he typically generates wins at a high rate (unless his offense is poor or he forces very few turnovers)...
Also have to wonder if Dumars' D was "better" because he could play Jordan tighter, knowing the enforcers under the basket would tackle him, should he blow by.
yes and no - i'm sure what you are saying is often true, but not every perimeter defender on detroit those years was excellent, even with enforcers backing them up...
Why do you remove blocks from the equation?
blocks are missed FGAs assigned to specific defenders - we don't have data (until very recently) for non-blocked missed FGAs as being due to specific defenders. thus the simulation treats them separately...
every FGA theoretically has a chance to be blocked by any of the 5 defenders on the floor. if it's not blocked, the simulation then reverts to looking at defenders' defensive FG% allowed ratings, whether there was a switch (to see just who was the defender on that specific FGA), etc...
There are infinite ways the player rates can sum to the team rate. One guy is not that good, another is not that bad...
welcome to my world...
when watching games the number one thing i am looking for specifically is player defensive tendencies, and how those match up with available data...
as this defensive player shot rating is the only subjective parameter in the simulation, i spend an inordinate amount of time assigning these ratings. even after that there is still an option for the user to change them for what-if scenarios...
Have you got a list of historic players and their estimated eFG% allowed?
just in the simulation, back to 77-78...
perhaps now you can see how valuable players are (in terms of wins generated) that are not only very good to excellent shot defenders (outside of blocks) but that also force turnovers (steals/offensive fouls drawn) and/or block shots...
i.e. larry nance, bobby jones, mo cheeks, alvin robertson, kawhi leonard, etc...
for an extreme example, on the 84-85 utah jazz mark eaton (-5.0%, 8.8% BS, i.e. outstanding defense) played 34 min/g. when i simulate them with him playing 34 min/g but change his defense (to +5.0%, 0.0% BS, very poor defense), they win on average 11-12 games less per average 82 game season...
that's 11-12 wins due just to his defense...
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
No doubt. Do you remember Keith Ellis used to refer to his Strat-o-Matic NBA game, in which defensive ratings were assigned? Not based on stats especially, but on observation and/or reputation. I think they went back to early '70s.this defensive player shot rating is the only subjective parameter in the simulation, i spend an inordinate amount of time assigning these ratings...
Have you found these and compared them with yours? I'd be curious to see both sets. In general the subjective stuff isn't what I'm after. I prefer the numbers do the work.
The one exception I've made is to arbitrarily boost blocked shot rates above their estimate for 2 players: Russell and Wilt. Some have said I don't boost them enough.
Of course, he wouldn't get 34 mpg if he plays no offense AND no defense.for an extreme example, on the 84-85 utah jazz mark eaton (-5.0%, 8.8% BS, i.e. outstanding defense) played 34 min/g. when i simulate them with him playing 34 min/g but change his defense (to +5.0%, 0.0% BS, very poor defense), they win on average 11-12 games less per average 82 game season...
In general, we may consider the effect of having an all-D, no-O player on the other team's lineup: In this case, the Jazz' opponents didn't have to put a good defender on Eaton; so they could stack their lineup with offensive-minded players -- indirectly lessening Eaton's defensive impact.
By contrast, an elite 2-way player -- Olajuwon, Robinson -- could compel their opponent to keep a strong defender on the floor, thus hurting their offense -- and further increasing the "defensive" impact of an Olajuwon or Robinson.
This would be hard to account for in a simulation. It involves affecting the opponent lineup, skewing the normal minutes distribution.
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
Do you remember Keith Ellis
sorry don't know the guy...
I'd be curious to see both sets.
ask away - i can tell you if there are certain players you're interested in. just don't have an easy way to make all available...
Of course, he wouldn't get 34 mpg if he plays no offense AND no defense.
that same year jerome whitehead started at C for san diego, played 78 games and 32 min/g (2536 min). not only were the clippers last in the league that year in defense (111.4 pts/100poss allowed), the 54.0% eFG% they allowed was the highest/worst allowed by any team in the last 39 years...
he had he 2nd lowest shot blocking rate (0.9% BS) of any C with 2000+ minutes played that season, the 3rd lowest per minute defensive rebounding rate, and i have him rated as a +5.0% shot defender. he also wasn't much on offense...
not quite no offense and no defense, but about as close as you will come playing as much as 32 min/g...
In general, we may consider the effect of having an all-D, no-O player on the other team's lineup: In this case, the Jazz' opponents didn't have to put a good defender on Eaton; so they could stack their lineup with offensive-minded players -- indirectly lessening Eaton's defensive impact.
???
over the 8 year stretch of 8485-9192, utah was the league's best defensive team, allowing the lowest defensive pts/poss at 102.8 pts/100poss. the next best defensive team those 8 years was detroit at 104.2 pts/100poss allowed. the difference between utah and detroit (1.4 pts/100poss) was the same as that between detroit and the 7th best defensive team cleveland (105.6 pts/100poss allowed), i.e. utah was the best defensive team over a long 8 year stretch by a long shot...
those 8 years utah allowed just a 46.7% eFG%. the 2nd best/lowest eFG% allowed during that time was detroit at 47.5%, and again the difference between those 2 teams - 0.8% - was the same as that between detroit and the team with the 6th lowest eFG% allowed. again utah was best by a long shot...
also over those 8 seasons utah ranked just 11th best in forced turnovers with 16.8 forced TO/100poss, and ranked just 13th in defensive rebounding percentage at 68.5%...
so their overall defense over that long stretch of time was best - by that long shot - first and foremost because of their shot defense, and in particular eaton...
over that time they also ranked just 17th in offensive efficiency (105.5 pts/100poss scored), yet had the 5th best regular season winning percentage. so they won primarily because of their defense, and in particular their shot defense...
those 8 years eaton blocked 2359 shots - an average of 295 blocks a year (4.6 bs/40min). to give you an idea of how hard it is to block that many shots in a single season, the fact is just 1 player has done so the past 20 years (theo ratliff 0304). he was the key reason that team was so good defensively for so long...
an argument can easily be made for eaton being one of the greatest defensive players in league history, if not the greatest. if anybody "...indirectly lessened his defensive impact...", they did so rarely...
i don't see eaton listed among your top 400 players - but i do see the likes of tom boerwinkle and swen nater...
This would be hard to account for in a simulation.
i have no problem re-creating utah's defensive dominance via simulation - it clearly shows how eaton's defense generates wins at high rates...
sorry don't know the guy...
I'd be curious to see both sets.
ask away - i can tell you if there are certain players you're interested in. just don't have an easy way to make all available...
Of course, he wouldn't get 34 mpg if he plays no offense AND no defense.
that same year jerome whitehead started at C for san diego, played 78 games and 32 min/g (2536 min). not only were the clippers last in the league that year in defense (111.4 pts/100poss allowed), the 54.0% eFG% they allowed was the highest/worst allowed by any team in the last 39 years...
he had he 2nd lowest shot blocking rate (0.9% BS) of any C with 2000+ minutes played that season, the 3rd lowest per minute defensive rebounding rate, and i have him rated as a +5.0% shot defender. he also wasn't much on offense...
not quite no offense and no defense, but about as close as you will come playing as much as 32 min/g...
In general, we may consider the effect of having an all-D, no-O player on the other team's lineup: In this case, the Jazz' opponents didn't have to put a good defender on Eaton; so they could stack their lineup with offensive-minded players -- indirectly lessening Eaton's defensive impact.
???
over the 8 year stretch of 8485-9192, utah was the league's best defensive team, allowing the lowest defensive pts/poss at 102.8 pts/100poss. the next best defensive team those 8 years was detroit at 104.2 pts/100poss allowed. the difference between utah and detroit (1.4 pts/100poss) was the same as that between detroit and the 7th best defensive team cleveland (105.6 pts/100poss allowed), i.e. utah was the best defensive team over a long 8 year stretch by a long shot...
those 8 years utah allowed just a 46.7% eFG%. the 2nd best/lowest eFG% allowed during that time was detroit at 47.5%, and again the difference between those 2 teams - 0.8% - was the same as that between detroit and the team with the 6th lowest eFG% allowed. again utah was best by a long shot...
also over those 8 seasons utah ranked just 11th best in forced turnovers with 16.8 forced TO/100poss, and ranked just 13th in defensive rebounding percentage at 68.5%...
so their overall defense over that long stretch of time was best - by that long shot - first and foremost because of their shot defense, and in particular eaton...
over that time they also ranked just 17th in offensive efficiency (105.5 pts/100poss scored), yet had the 5th best regular season winning percentage. so they won primarily because of their defense, and in particular their shot defense...
those 8 years eaton blocked 2359 shots - an average of 295 blocks a year (4.6 bs/40min). to give you an idea of how hard it is to block that many shots in a single season, the fact is just 1 player has done so the past 20 years (theo ratliff 0304). he was the key reason that team was so good defensively for so long...
an argument can easily be made for eaton being one of the greatest defensive players in league history, if not the greatest. if anybody "...indirectly lessened his defensive impact...", they did so rarely...
i don't see eaton listed among your top 400 players - but i do see the likes of tom boerwinkle and swen nater...
This would be hard to account for in a simulation.
i have no problem re-creating utah's defensive dominance via simulation - it clearly shows how eaton's defense generates wins at high rates...
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
I suspect maybe your simulation has Eaton generating a lot of wins for the simple reason that you assign a lot of defensive credit to him. Maybe your assessment is exactly right, but nobody could know.
Of 51 centers (and C-F) with 20,000+ minutes since 1971, Eaton doesn't look good in the majority of metrics:He's dead last in a couple, very close on a few more. Behind only Ratliff in Blk%, but somehow not that elite in D-Rating -- tied with Mourning, Rollins, McAdoo, and Alvan.
His total rebound% is 35th among 51. Behind Gminski, Benjamin, Divac, Ilgauskas ...
He ranks higher in playoff minutes, 27th among centers since 1971. Keeping it at top 51, his playoff rankings:At least BPM is kind to him. PER not so much.
It occurs to me that if Eaton blocks 8% of all opponent shots -- and lets just say they would otherwise be .500 eFG% shots -- that alone is reducing oppFG% by .040
Then if you say he's also reducing his man's FG% by another .050, does that mean opposing centers may have shot .060-.090 worse against him?
Hakeem Olajuwon played the most minutes at C (or C-F) in the 1985-92 interval. Against Eaton, his eFG% was reduced from .515 (6 yr RS avg) to .481 -- a dropoff of .034, which is substantial. In fact, it's close to what you'd predict from a -.050 defender who goes 34 of 48 minutes. But it's also accounted for by getting about 1.3 additional shots blocked per game.
The next western center in minutes was James Donaldson. He actually shot a bit better vs the Jazz, though a bit less often.
Benoit Benjamin shot .035 below his norm vs Eaton. Yet all these guys equal or surpass Eaton in Rebounds and Blk+Stl in their meetings.
http://bkref.com/tiny/QhqUi
Of 51 centers (and C-F) with 20,000+ minutes since 1971, Eaton doesn't look good in the majority of metrics:
Code: Select all
51 C's ORb% DRb% As% St% Bk% TO% Usg% ORtg DRtg WS/48 BPM
median 9.0 21.9 9.7 1.2 3.4 14.9 19.7 108 103 .129 1.7
Eaton 8.4 21.1 4.3 .7 6.9 19.8 10.7 97 100 .085 1.6
rank 32 32 46 50 2 49 51 51 14 44 26His total rebound% is 35th among 51. Behind Gminski, Benjamin, Divac, Ilgauskas ...
He ranks higher in playoff minutes, 27th among centers since 1971. Keeping it at top 51, his playoff rankings:
Code: Select all
51 C's ORb% DRb% As% St% Bk% TO% Usg% ORtg DRtg WS/48 BPM
median 8.6 20.8 6.9 1.1 3.4 13.5 19.3 107 103 .123 1.9
Eaton 8.6 18.8 3.1 .8 5.6 15.8 9.6 106 107 .084 1.9
rank 27 35 47 43 5 35 49 29 44 40 26It occurs to me that if Eaton blocks 8% of all opponent shots -- and lets just say they would otherwise be .500 eFG% shots -- that alone is reducing oppFG% by .040
Then if you say he's also reducing his man's FG% by another .050, does that mean opposing centers may have shot .060-.090 worse against him?
Hakeem Olajuwon played the most minutes at C (or C-F) in the 1985-92 interval. Against Eaton, his eFG% was reduced from .515 (6 yr RS avg) to .481 -- a dropoff of .034, which is substantial. In fact, it's close to what you'd predict from a -.050 defender who goes 34 of 48 minutes. But it's also accounted for by getting about 1.3 additional shots blocked per game.
The next western center in minutes was James Donaldson. He actually shot a bit better vs the Jazz, though a bit less often.
Benoit Benjamin shot .035 below his norm vs Eaton. Yet all these guys equal or surpass Eaton in Rebounds and Blk+Stl in their meetings.
http://bkref.com/tiny/QhqUi
Re: NBA-ABA careers ranked, 1952-2016
Quoting myself here. If you're a coach facing Mark Eaton, you may want to go small; conversely, you don't have to keep one of your better defenders on him, so you have a defensive advantage. Your own shot blockers can go after other players.... Jazz' opponents didn't have to put a good defender on Eaton; so they could stack their lineup with offensive-minded players -- indirectly lessening Eaton's defensive impact.
Is there evidence that Eaton caused or enabled more of his own team's shots to be blocked? Well, there is a correlation:
Code: Select all
Utah opponent / Mark Eaton
yr blk/G Min Pts
1982 5.1 0 0
1983 5.5 1528 351
1984 5.7 2139 461
1985 5.4 2813 794
1986 5.7 2551 676
1987 5.6 2505 608
1988 5.8 2731 571
1989 6.2 2914 508
1990 5.5 2281 395
1991 5.0 2580 409
1992 5.6 2023 266
1993 5.7 1104 177
1994 5.6 0 0
We also can see that when Eaton is at least somewhat of a threat on offense, high minutes do not result in such high opp. block rates (1985).
In fact, Eaton minutes and points can "predict" how many Utah shots got blocked per game:
Blk/G = Min/2000 - Pts/1000 + 5.0
The avg error from this formula is 0.22. The worst is for 1991, when 5.9 are predicted; somehow they turned in a very low 5.0
Of course, other personnel would affect this 'opponent block' count. In '91, they got the quick-shooting Jeff Malone?