Rookies 2015-16

[Mike G]

Throwing 3-days-old eW/484 into a blend with PER, WS/48, and BPM, ranked by the avg of 4 'wins' estimates.

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winz    rookies        tm   Min   PER   WS/48  BPM  e484     per48  bpm48   perW   WS  bpmW  eW
2.86   Karl-A Towns   Min   822   22.4  .164   1.8  1.89     .180   .135     3.1  2.8  2.3  3.2
2.23   K Porzingis    NYK   832   18.3  .116   0.7  1.50     .136   .114     2.4  2.0  2.0  2.6
1.64   Nikola Jokic   Den   498   21.6  .184   2.5  1.27     .171   .149     1.8  1.9  1.5  1.3
1.16   Jahlil Okafor  Phl   933   15.7  .016  -5.1  1.15     .108   .001     2.1   .3   .0  2.2
1.08  T.J. McConnell  Phl   753   13.5  .042  -1.5   .78     .084   .071     1.3   .7  1.1  1.2

.94   Frank Kaminsky  Cha   505   13.2  .116  -0.2   .64     .081   .096      .8  1.2  1.0   .7
.89   R H-Jefferson   Brk   419   13.7  .099   1.8   .87     .086   .135      .8   .9  1.2   .8
.87  D'Angelo Russell LAL   842   12.8 -.011  -2.0   .73     .076   .061     1.3  -.2  1.1  1.3
.79   Willie C-Stein  Sac   378   13.6  .119   0.9   .78     .085   .118      .7   .9   .9   .6
.76   Nemanja Bjelica Min   498    9.7  .080   0.8   .54     .043   .116      .4   .8  1.2   .6

winz    rookies        tm   Min   PER   WS/48  BPM  e484     per48  bpm48   perW   WS  bpmW  eW
.66   Richaun Holmes  Phl   305   16.7  .127   0.5   .60     .118   .110      .8   .8   .7   .4
.60   Justise Winslow Mia   770    7.0  .039  -1.2   .20     .014   .077      .2   .6  1.2   .3
.55   Stanley Johnson Det   652    9.3  .035  -3.4   .54     .038   .034      .5   .5   .5   .7
.54  Jonathon Simmons SAS   221   14.7  .174   0.3   .91     .097   .106      .4   .8   .5   .4
.52   Raul Neto       Uta   440   10.8  .042  -1.5   .59     .055   .071      .5   .4   .6   .5

.46   Devin Booker    Phx   353   11.9  .097  -2.2   .30     .066   .057      .5   .7   .4   .2
.37  Boban Marjanovic SAS    81   28.5  .305   2.6  1.71     .246   .151      .4   .5   .3   .3
.28   Larry Nance Jr. LAL   477    9.7  .024  -3.9   .21     .043   .024      .4   .2   .2   .2
.26   Christian Wood  Phl   114   19.5  .140  -2.0   .81     .149   .061      .4   .3   .1   .2
.21   Bobby Portis    Chi    83   20.5  .092   0.2  1.33     .159   .104      .3   .2   .2   .2

winz    rookies        tm   Min   PER   WS/48  BPM  e484     per48  bpm48   perW   WS  bpmW  eW
.21   Jerian Grant    NYK   474    9.0  .009  -4.9   .35     .035   .005      .3   .1   .0   .3
.19   Myles Turner    Ind   127   13.6  .113  -3.2   .57     .085   .038      .2   .3   .1   .1
.18   Kelly Oubre     Was   220   10.3  .069  -4.9   .36     .049   .005      .2   .3   .0   .2
.03   Trey Lyles      Uta   333    5.9  .001  -5.8   .26     .002  -.013      .0   .0  -.1   .2
-.26  Emmanuel Mudiay Den   669    6.7 -.128  -6.5   .69     .010  -.026      .1 -1.8  -.4  1.0

The final 4 columns show which systems like or dislike a given player.
PER-wins add up to 20.0; WS sum to 15.3; eW and bpmW are in between.
Correlations with minutes played: eW .74, perW .64, bpmW .48, WS .17

[Mike G]

Emmanuel Mudiay has by far the worst Win Share rate of any player in a >600 minute season, NBA or ABA.

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WS/48   player           yr   Tm    Min   PER   BPM
-.128  Emmanuel Mudiay  2016  Den   669   6.7  -6.5
-.091  Winford Boynes   1981  Dal   757   6.1  -8.2
-.091  Fred Hilton      1973  Buf   731  11.2
-.091 Woody Sauldsberry 1961  StL  1491   6.1
-.090  Gary Alcorn      1960  Det   670   7.6  
-.089  Cory Carr        1999  Chi   624   5.1  -8.8
-.082  Bill Mlkvy       1953  PhW   608   9.5  
-.081  Jim Jackson      1993  Dal   938  11.0  -3.3
-.079  Mardy Collins    2008  NYK   634   5.9  -6.2
-.076  Sharone Wright   1997  Tor  1009   7.4  -9.5

Some shown here were also rookies, and several had brief careers.
But 35 rookies have posted worse rookie BPM; including Zaza Pachulia, Allen Houston, Kenny Carr, Dennis Schroder, Corliss Williamson.

Almost as many started with a lower rookie PER, incl. Schroder, Austin Rivers, ... Draymond Green was a 7.1

[Mike G]

At .404 of the season, rookies combine for a projected 57 eWins on the season.
A number of prominent rookies are currently injured and not contributing to this total.

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e82     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
9.0 Karl-Anthony Towns Min   29  .572   20.9  12.1   1.4    .9   2.6  2.4  1.84
6.9 Kristaps Porzingis NYK   27  .503   17.9  10.4   1.4   1.0   2.4  2.6  1.50
5.7   Jahlil Okafor    Phl   31  .495   19.6   8.7   1.2    .3   2.8  1.4  1.22
3.8   Nikola Jokic     Den   18  .594   16.1   9.8   2.2   1.3   2.4   .9  1.30
3.5   D'Angelo Russell LAL   28  .474   14.2   4.9   3.8   1.5   3.0   .3   .73

2.7   T.J. McConnell   Phl   23  .511    8.9   6.0   6.3   1.8   3.4   .3   .70
2.2   Emmanuel Mudiay  Den   29  .376   12.5   4.5   6.8   1.3   5.0   .8   .66
2.1   Frank Kaminsky   Cha   20  .509   11.8   5.5   1.9    .7   1.1  1.2   .65
1.9   Stanley Johnson  Det   22  .453   12.4   5.7   1.8    .9   1.9   .2   .51
1.7 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk   22  .516    8.3   9.9   1.9   2.3   1.8   .7   .81

e82     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.5   W Cauley-Stein   Sac   18  .592    8.8   9.5    .7   1.1   1.3  1.9   .75
1.5   Raul Neto        Uta   18  .491   11.2   3.3   4.5   1.9   2.8   .1   .50
1.3   Boban Marjanovic SAS    7  .640   24.1  12.7   1.0   1.1   3.1  2.3  2.10
1.3   Larry Nance Jr.  LAL   20  .547    9.2   7.2   1.1   1.0   1.2   .4   .45
1.1   Richaun Holmes   Phl   14  .618   13.3   4.9   1.2    .7   1.3  1.7   .67

1.1   Bobby Portis     Chi   16  .546   19.1   8.4   1.7   1.2   3.3   .4  1.16
1.1   Nemanja Bjelica  Min   19  .522    7.9   6.5   2.2    .6   1.1   .6   .41
1.1   Jonathon Simmons SAS   13  .585   15.4   4.2   3.8   1.0   2.5   .1   .83
0.9   Devin Booker     Phx   17  .598   13.1   2.5   1.9   1.0   1.7   .3   .37
0.9   Trey Lyles       Uta   15  .434    7.4   8.7   1.4    .2   1.3   .4   .36

e82     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
0.8   Kelly Oubre      Was   13  .545   11.7   6.0    .9    .6   1.0   .2   .48
0.8   Cameron Payne    Okl    7  .593   15.4   5.1   5.9   1.8   1.8   .2  1.29
0.8   Justise Winslow  Mia   27  .489    7.8   5.9   1.6    .9   1.8   .4   .19
0.7   Willie Reed      Brk    9  .602   15.1   9.4    .4    .0   1.8  2.0  1.02
0.7   Myles Turner     Ind   16  .500   12.8   7.1    .4    .5   1.4  2.2   .73

East and West are evenly split in rookie eWins.

[Mike G]

With the season 48% finished, rookies project to total 61 eWins.

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e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
8.6 Karl-Anthony Towns Min   29  .569   20.4  12.1   1.5    .8   2.6  2.2  1.74
7.2 Kristaps Porzingis NYK   28  .510   18.7  10.2   1.4   1.0   2.4  2.6  1.51
5.6   Jahlil Okafor    Phl   31  .504   19.8   8.4   1.3    .5   2.7  1.3  1.20
4.2   Nikola Jokic     Den   19  .591   16.0  10.4   2.8   1.4   2.4   .9  1.39
3.4   D'Angelo Russell LAL   27  .484   14.9   4.7   4.0   1.6   3.0   .2   .78

2.9   T.J. McConnell   Phl   22  .513    9.3   5.9   6.5   2.1   3.4   .3   .77
2.2   Frank Kaminsky   Cha   21  .486   11.5   5.9   2.1    .7   1.2  1.0   .64
2.1   Stanley Johnson  Det   22  .451   12.6   6.1   1.9   1.1   2.1   .2   .54
2.0   Larry Nance Jr.  LAL   21  .555   10.2   7.9   1.0   1.5   1.1   .5   .65
2.0   Emmanuel Mudiay  Den   29  .372   12.3   4.5   6.8   1.3   4.9   .8   .65

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.7   W Cauley-Stein   Sac   18  .606    9.9   9.5    .6   1.0   1.2  2.1   .86
1.7   Raul Neto        Uta   19  .498   11.6   3.2   4.8   1.8   2.9   .1   .53
1.6   Boban Marjanovic SAS    7  .643   25.3  13.0   1.6   1.1   2.7  2.3  2.28
1.5 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk   22  .516    8.5   9.9   2.0   2.3   1.8   .7   .84
1.5   Trey Lyles       Uta   18  .478    9.1   8.5   1.5    .5   1.3   .4   .52

1.3   Devin Booker     Phx   18  .580   14.3   3.3   2.0   1.0   1.9   .3   .50
1.2   Richaun Holmes   Phl   14  .621   14.2   5.1   1.1    .8   1.4  1.7   .73
1.2   Jonathon Simmons SAS   13  .615   16.6   4.3   3.2    .9   2.5   .2   .84
1.2   Cameron Payne    Okl   10  .575   15.7   4.6   5.1   1.7   1.7   .3  1.16
1.2   Nemanja Bjelica  Min   19  .560    8.2   6.4   2.2    .7   1.1   .6   .43

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.0   Bobby Portis     Chi   15  .506   14.9   8.9   1.3   1.1   2.9   .9   .86
1.0   Jerian Grant     NYK   16  .440   10.1   3.5   4.5   1.1   2.4   .2   .39
0.9   Myles Turner     Ind   14  .536   14.2   7.8    .6    .4   1.2  2.1   .91
0.7   Kelly Oubre      Was   13  .527   11.2   6.0    .9    .8   1.3   .3   .41
0.7   Willie Reed      Brk   10  .580   13.3   9.0    .3    .3   1.8  1.9   .82
0.6   Justise Winslow  Mia   26  .458    7.4   5.9   1.6    .9   1.8   .5   .15

[Mike G]

At 52% of the season, rookies now project to 65 eWins on the year.

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e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
8.9   Karl-A Towns   Min   29  .568   20.5  12.4   1.6   3.9    .8   2.7  2.2  1.79
7.4   Kris Porzingis NYK   28  .520   18.8  10.0   1.5   3.8   1.0   2.3  2.6  1.54
5.9   Jahlil Okafor  Phl   31  .511   20.3   8.3   1.3   2.9    .5   2.7  1.3  1.24
4.5   Nikola Jokic   Den   19  .594   16.5  10.3   3.0   4.0   1.5   2.4   .9  1.47
3.1 D'Angelo Russell LAL   27  .485   14.9   4.5   4.1   2.2   1.5   3.2   .2   .72

2.9   T.J. McConnell Phl   21  .508    9.6   5.9   7.0   2.4   2.1   3.3   .3   .80
2.7   Frank Kaminsky Cha   21  .508   12.8   6.2   2.1   2.5    .7   1.3  1.0   .75
2.1  Stanley Johnson Det   22  .454   12.6   6.4   2.0   3.4   1.1   2.2   .3   .56
1.9   W Cauley-Stein Sac   18  .588   10.2   9.8    .7   4.5   1.1   1.1  2.3   .96
1.9  Larry Nance Jr. LAL   20  .555   10.2   7.9   1.0   3.3   1.6   1.1   .5   .65

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.9  Emmanuel Mudiay Den   29  .379   12.3   4.4   6.9   2.6   1.3   4.8   .8   .57
1.9   Trey Lyles     Uta   18  .499   10.0   8.7   1.7   2.9    .5   1.5   .5   .62
1.8 Boban Marjanovic SAS    8  .636   26.9  13.8   1.8   4.1   1.1   2.7  2.3  2.54
1.6   Raul Neto      Uta   19  .499   11.6   3.0   4.8   3.0   1.8   2.7   .1   .49
1.5   Cameron Payne  Okl   11  .515   14.3   5.1   5.9   3.9   2.2   1.6   .3  1.20

1.5 Jonathon Simmons SAS   13  .626   18.2   4.4   3.4   4.8   1.0   2.5   .2  1.01
1.4   Myles Turner   Ind   15  .579   16.8   7.4    .8   4.0    .4   1.3  2.3  1.14
1.4   Devin Booker   Phx   19  .586   15.3   3.2   1.9   3.6    .9   2.1   .2   .50
1.4 Hollis-Jefferson Brk   22  .516    8.5  10.0   2.0   3.6   2.3   1.8   .7   .86
1.4   Richaun Holmes Phl   14  .629   15.0   5.3   1.2   4.0    .7   1.4  1.6   .80

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.2   Bobby Portis   Chi   15  .509   15.9   9.2   1.2   3.2   1.0   2.8  1.0   .98
1.2  Nemanja Bjelica Min   19  .545    8.4   6.4   2.4   4.9    .8   1.3   .8   .43
0.8   Jerian Grant   NYK   16  .421    9.7   3.6   4.6   2.7   1.1   2.3   .3   .34
0.8   Kelly Oubre    Was   14  .502   10.9   6.3    .8   4.5   1.1   1.4   .4   .41
0.7   Willie Reed    Brk   10  .583   13.5   8.8    .4   4.3    .4   1.7  1.9   .85

0.6   Joseph Young   Ind    6  .496   17.4   4.1   6.7   2.0   1.7   2.3   .0  1.28
0.5  Justise Winslow Mia   27  .455    7.2   6.0   1.7   2.8    .9   1.8   .5   .13
0.5   Christian Wood Phl    8  .515   14.0   8.6    .7   2.5   1.4    .6  1.4  1.09
0.4 Montrezl Harrell Hou   10  .626   11.3   5.2   1.2   4.8    .8   1.4   .8   .43
0.4   Mario Hezonja  Orl   14  .527   11.4   3.9   2.2   2.9    .5   2.5   .3   .18

[Mike G]

We're at 5/8 of the season, and rookies are looking at 72 eWins.

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e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.5   K-Anthony Towns Min   30  .583   21.1  12.9   1.8   3.6    .8   2.6  2.2   1.87
6.6   Kris. Porzingis NYK   28  .514   18.0   9.8   1.5   3.8   1.0   2.3  2.5   1.42
5.6   Nikola Jokic    Den   20  .589   18.0  11.1   3.5   4.4   1.8   2.3  1.0   1.71
5.4   Jahlil Okafor   Phl   30  .514   19.8   8.4   1.2   3.0    .5   2.7  1.4   1.19
3.1   T.J. McConnell  Phl   21  .521   10.5   5.9   7.1   2.5   2.3   3.4   .3    .87

3.1  D'Angelo Russell LAL   27  .499   15.2   4.5   4.0   2.3   1.5   3.2   .2    .70
2.6   Frank Kaminsky  Cha   21  .499   12.6   6.4   2.3   2.5    .7   1.3  1.0    .73
2.6   Myles Turner    Ind   20  .547   18.4   8.2    .9   4.2    .5   1.3  2.7   1.34
2.5  Boban Marjanovic SAS    9  .644   28.3  15.5   1.7   4.8   1.1   2.5  1.9   2.74
2.5   Stanley Johnson Det   24  .477   13.5   6.4   2.3   3.8   1.1   2.3   .2    .63

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.2   Emmanuel Mudiay Den   30  .400   12.4   3.9   6.9   2.6   1.3   4.5   .7    .61
2.2   W Cauley-Stein  Sac   20  .594   10.5  10.1    .7   4.3   1.2   1.2  2.2    .90
2.1   Devin Booker    Phx   23  .570   16.7   3.2   2.3   4.0    .8   2.2   .2    .60
1.8   Cameron Payne   Okl   12  .527   16.3   5.2   5.9   4.1   2.2   1.7   .4   1.36
1.7   Raul Neto       Uta   20  .506   12.0   3.1   4.9   3.0   1.5   2.6   .1    .50

1.5   Trey Lyles      Uta   18  .482   10.0   9.0   1.5   3.1    .5   1.7   .5    .54
1.5  Jonathon Simmons SAS   14  .593   17.8   4.0   3.3   4.8   1.0   2.4   .3    .88
1.5   Larry Nance Jr. LAL   20  .555   10.1   8.3   1.1   3.5   1.5   1.2   .4    .59
1.5   Richaun Holmes  Phl   14  .586   15.2   6.0   1.3   4.2    .8   1.3  1.9    .89
1.5   Bobby Portis    Chi   16  .487   15.1   9.0   1.1   3.5   1.1   2.2   .8    .91

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.1   Jerian Grant    NYK   16  .425    9.9   3.7   5.2   3.0   1.2   2.3   .2    .43
1.1 R HollisJefferson Brk   22  .516    8.5  10.2   2.0   3.7   2.4   1.8   .7    .77
1.0   Nemanja Bjelica Min   18  .533    8.5   6.5   2.5   5.1    .9   1.5   .7    .39
1.0   Justise Winslow Mia   28  .495    7.8   6.6   1.7   3.0   1.0   1.7   .5    .22
0.8   Joseph Young    Ind    9  .493   16.3   4.4   6.1   2.6   1.7   2.9   .0   1.07

[Mike G]

At 69% of the season, rookies have slipped a bit, to 70 eWins on the year. West looking better, by 37-33.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.9 Karl-Anthony Towns Min   31  .581   21.1  12.7   1.9    .7   2.5  2.2   1.91
6.8 Kristaps Porzingis NYK   28  .516   18.4   9.5   1.5   1.0   2.2  2.4   1.44
5.5   Jahlil Okafor    Phl   30  .521   20.4   8.4   1.3    .5   2.9  1.4   1.21
5.5   Nikola Jokic     Den   20  .588   17.3  10.8   3.4   1.7   2.3   .9   1.68
3.0   D'Angelo Russell LAL   27  .503   15.1   4.4   4.1   1.5   3.1   .2    .67

2.9   Myles Turner     Ind   21  .553   17.9   8.0    .9    .4   1.4  2.6   1.30
2.6   T.J. McConnell   Phl   21  .515   10.1   5.7   6.9   2.2   3.3   .2    .75
2.6   W Cauley-Stein   Sac   20  .612   11.0   9.2    .7   1.0   1.2  2.0    .99
2.5   Frank Kaminsky   Cha   21  .493   12.2   6.4   2.2    .6   1.3  1.0    .71
2.4   Stanley Johnson  Det   24  .471   13.2   6.2   2.3   1.0   2.3   .2    .60

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.2   Boban Marjanovic SAS    8  .651   24.6  13.6   1.4   1.0   2.2  1.6   2.40
2.1   Emmanuel Mudiay  Den   30  .405   13.0   3.9   6.7   1.4   4.2   .7    .55
1.8   Devin Booker     Phx   24  .551   15.3   3.2   2.5    .8   2.3   .2    .50
1.8   Bobby Portis     Chi   17  .492   15.0   8.9   1.2    .9   2.0   .8    .96
1.7   Larry Nance Jr.  LAL   20  .555    9.7   8.1   1.1   1.4   1.2   .5    .67

1.6   Cameron Payne    Okl   12  .526   15.0   4.6   5.6   2.0   1.8   .3   1.10
1.5   Trey Lyles       Uta   17  .486   10.1   8.5   1.5    .5   1.6   .5    .57
1.5   Justise Winslow  Mia   28  .492    8.3   6.6   1.6   1.0   1.7   .4    .33
1.3   Raul Neto        Uta   20  .516   11.7   2.9   4.6   1.5   2.6   .1    .40
1.3   Richaun Holmes   Phl   14  .576   14.1   5.6   1.4    .7   1.4  1.8    .79

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.2   Jonathon Simmons SAS   14  .582   15.8   4.0   2.8    .9   2.5   .3    .67
1.1 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk   22  .516    8.4   9.9   1.9   2.3   1.8   .7    .90
1.0   Nemanja Bjelica  Min   18  .542    8.4   6.3   2.4    .8   1.4   .7    .42
0.9   Jerian Grant     NYK   16  .437   10.0   3.6   5.0   1.1   2.2   .2    .37
0.8   Willie Reed      Brk   10  .584   13.8   8.4    .5    .5   1.6  1.8    .90

[Mike G]

At 76% of the season, rookies still project to add 70 eWins on the year.
Bigs dominate the rookie class. Sorted by position:

Code: Select all

e82    center        tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl    TO   Blk   e484
10.2  Karl-A Towns   Min   31  .585   20.8  12.6   2.1   .8   2.6   2.1   1.95
5.7   Nikola Jokic   Den   20  .580   17.0  11.1   3.5  1.7   2.4   1.0   1.71
5.3   Jahlil Okafor  Phl   30  .528   20.2   8.2   1.3   .5   2.8   1.4   1.23
2.9   Myles Turner   Ind   22  .533   16.9   7.6    .8   .5   1.4   2.3   1.18
2.7   Frank Kaminsky Cha   21  .500   12.2   6.5   2.3   .7   1.3    .9    .76
2.4   W Cauley-Stein Sac   20  .609   10.8   8.9    .7  1.1   1.1   1.9    .93
2.2 Boban Marjanovic SAS    8  .655   23.6  13.6   1.4   .9   2.1   1.5   2.40

e82  power forward   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.8   K Porzingis    NYK   28  .514   18.3   9.3   1.5   1.0   2.1  2.5   1.48
1.8   Bobby Portis   Chi   18  .474   14.0   9.2   1.4   1.0   2.0   .7    .92
1.6   Larry Nance    LAL   19  .556    9.5   8.3   1.2   1.4   1.1   .5    .66
1.5   Trey Lyles     Uta   16  .485   10.4   8.3   1.4    .5   1.6   .5    .54
1.4   Richaun Holmes Phl   14  .568   13.3   6.1   1.4    .8   1.5  1.9    .78
0.9   Willie Reed    Brk   10  .558   13.5   8.8    .7    .5   1.4  2.3   1.02
0.9  Nemanja Bjelica Min   18  .542    8.2   6.4   2.4    .8   1.4   .6    .40

e82   small forward  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.1  Stanley Johnson Det   24  .471   13.0   6.2   2.4   1.0   2.2   .2    .58
1.3  Justise Winslow Mia   28  .489    8.0   6.8   1.7   1.0   1.7   .5    .28
0.9   R H-Jefferson  Brk   22  .516    8.2   9.9   2.0   2.3   1.8   .7    .83
0.7   Mario Hezonja  Orl   16  .538   12.0   4.2   2.2    .7   2.3   .3    .27

e82  shooting guard  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.0   Devin Booker   Phx   25  .545   15.6   3.1   2.7    .7   2.2   .2    .53
1.1 Jonathon Simmons SAS   14  .580   15.2   4.0   2.8    .9   2.4   .2    .64

e82   point  guard   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
3.5 D'Angelo Russell LAL   28  .514   16.0   4.3   4.2   1.5   3.0   .2    .76
2.4   T.J. McConnell Phl   20  .510    9.8   5.6   7.0   2.1   3.1   .2    .73
2.3  Emmanuel Mudiay Den   30  .409   12.9   4.0   6.8   1.3   4.0   .7    .58
1.4   Cameron Payne  Okl   11  .526   14.4   4.5   5.7   1.9   1.9   .3   1.05
1.2   Raul Neto      Uta   20  .516   11.5   2.8   4.3   1.5   2.4   .1    .36
0.7   Jerian Grant   NYK   15  .438    9.6   3.6   4.9   1.2   2.3   .2    .32

Actually, the positions rank alphabetically:

Code: Select all

pos  eWins
C    32.1
PF   15.8
PG   12.7
SF    5.8
SG    4.0

[caliban]

Crashing your thread with some rookie numbers if you don't mind.

Here's how the 16' rookie class looks like with the same single year blend I've used for my team projections over in that tread. Named it 'cal48' here with 'cal' displaying total wins added. Sticking cal48 with a one minute work effort dummy ageCurve that has little to no scientific backing along with mpg as a proxy for a hard working prospect/organisational happiness with the pick/getting the NBA-game, what have you, I'd got calP for future potential. I also added 4 randomly selected player seasons from previous rookie classes as reference points for good fun. Davis for excellence, Deng's for a long and productive NBA career. Barnes for okay rotation minutes and Rivers for scrub status/out of the league unless your dad has some serious pull which isn't very likely for any of these players. Oh, almost forgot. Added Parker & Randle's for injury reasons as well.

This is all in good fun and calP could off course be improved quite easily with a better age curve(s for position) and weighting for said curve and mpg. Might put some time into improving this in the future.




edit - spelling (not my first language)

[Mike G]

More good numbers is always better.

Sticking cal48 with a one minute work effort dummy ageCurve that has little to no scientific backing along with mpg as a proxy for a hard working prospect/organisational happiness with the pick/getting the NBA-game, what have you, I'd got calP for future potential.

So, what is calP, that it gets bigger for weaker players?

[caliban]

More good numbers is always better.

good? haha

Sticking cal48 with a one minute work effort dummy ageCurve that has little to no scientific backing along with mpg as a proxy for a hard working prospect/organisational happiness with the pick/getting the NBA-game, what have you, I'd got calP for future potential.

So, what is calP, that it gets bigger for weaker players?

I just inverted cal48 and mpg to go along with a low age number being a good thing for future potential, hence a low calP indicates a more productive NBA career. If I change the agecurve around instead to avoid confusion it would look like this.


Hopefully I understod you correctly sir.

Edit - scaled it down to make Davis a '10' and Rivers a '0' for effect

[caliban]

Better age weighting but still needs some improvement. Also added all the rookie seasons from the last 5 draft classes for reference. Once again, cal48 & cal is fairly accurate and is the single year blend used in the teamproj and calP is a fun attempt at assessing future career potential based on the rookie season alone or rather, how good has a players rookie season really been?

Jokic and Richardson are the 15-16' draft steals and Heat really hit the home-run with both of their picks and looks set with youth for the near future. Orlando and Hezonja fans should be pretty bummed out. Okafor pick also looks like a dud. Towns being the clear cut best player in the draft is debatable with Jokic a lite bit a head at the moment but it might be worth noting that the last few Euro-bigs looks to come out swinging hard their rookie year to then never really elevating. This might be something to look into.

Looking back it's also sad how many career altering injuries there's been with Beal looking like the next great SG before all the injury trouble. The positive outlier is K. Thompson who didn't score too high in calP his rookie year, off course playing alongside Curry is an outlier by itself and it would be interesting seeing him playing in an other environment.

Will update with the final numbers from this years class after the season and might ad more years and put some time into the weighting in the future.

In short: This is all based on rookie year data and aims to better evaluate rookie seasons.

Edit: Datapoints and spelling, this is not my first language if you haven't already noticed .

[Mike G]

With 85% of the season completed, rookies now project to 74 eWins total.

Code: Select all

e82   per36 rates       tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
10.0 Karl-Anthony Towns Min   31  .590   21.0  12.3   2.0    .8   2.6  2.0  1.87
6.3  Kristaps Porzingis NYK   28  .507   18.2   9.1   1.6    .9   2.2  2.4  1.39
5.9   Nikola Jokic      Den   21  .580   17.3  11.4   3.7   1.7   2.3  1.0  1.74
4.6   Jahlil Okafor     Phl   30  .531   20.3   8.1   1.3    .5   2.8  1.4  1.19
3.6   D'Angelo Russell  LAL   28  .517   16.5   4.3   4.2   1.5   3.0   .2   .78

3.1   Myles Turner      Ind   23  .529   17.0   7.9    .8    .5   1.5  2.2  1.18
2.7   Frank Kaminsky    Cha   21  .504   12.3   6.7   2.3    .8   1.3   .8   .77
2.6   Emmanuel Mudiay   Den   30  .424   13.7   4.0   6.7   1.2   3.9   .6   .62
2.4   T.J. McConnell    Phl   20  .519   10.2   5.4   7.0   2.1   3.1   .2   .73
2.4 Willie Cauley-Stein Sac   20  .606   10.9   8.8    .7   1.0   1.0  1.8   .93

e82   per36 rates       tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
2.3   Devin Booker      Phx   26  .538   16.3   3.1   3.0    .7   2.4   .2   .58
2.1   Stanley Johnson   Det   24  .470   12.6   6.3   2.5   1.1   2.2   .3   .59
2.0   Boban Marjanovic  SAS    8  .645   23.5  14.1   1.5    .9   2.0  1.5  2.38
2.0   Bobby Portis      Chi   18  .470   13.6   9.5   1.5    .9   1.8   .7   .95
1.8   Trey Lyles        Uta   16  .509   12.0   8.0   1.4    .5   1.6   .5   .68

1.7   Larry Nance Jr.   LAL   20  .551    9.6   8.4   1.1   1.4   1.2   .5   .67
1.6   Justise Winslow   Mia   29  .492    8.2   6.6   1.8   1.1   1.6   .5   .35
1.3   Raul Neto         Uta   19  .533   12.5   2.8   4.3   1.5   2.5   .1   .40
1.3   Cameron Payne     Okl   12  .520   14.0   4.6   5.7   1.8   1.9   .4   .97
1.2   Richaun Holmes    Phl   14  .560   13.3   6.1   1.4    .9   1.6  1.9   .75

e82   per36 rates       tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.1   Jonathon Simmons  SAS   14  .582   15.5   4.1   2.9   1.0   2.4   .2   .69
1.1   Willie Reed       Brk   11  .577   14.3   9.0    .7    .5   1.4  2.3  1.12
1.0   Jerian Grant      NYK   16  .456   10.5   3.8   4.7   1.3   2.3   .3   .40
0.9  Rondae H-Jefferson Brk   22  .520    8.3   9.9   2.0   2.3   1.8   .7   .85
0.8   Josh Richardson   Mia   18  .587   11.7   3.5   2.2   1.3   1.2   .9   .50

0.8   Nemanja Bjelica   Min   17  .537    8.2   6.3   2.5    .8   1.5   .6   .40
0.7   Mario Hezonja     Orl   16  .527   11.9   4.3   2.4    .7   2.4   .3   .27
0.7   Salah Mejri       Dal   10  .651   12.5  10.6    .4    .6   1.7  3.1  1.19
0.6   Montrezl Harrell  Hou   10  .636   12.3   5.5   1.6   1.0   1.5   .8   .63
0.6   Kelly Oubre       Was   11  .499   10.8   6.6    .6   1.2   1.6   .4   .40

[Mike G]

At 91% of the season (last night's games not included), rookies headed to almost 76 eWins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
10.2  K-Anthony Towns  Min   32  .592   20.9  12.2   2.1    .8   2.5  1.9  1.90
6.5 Kristaps Porzingis NYK   28  .513   18.3   9.1   1.6    .9   2.1  2.3  1.43
6.0   Nikola Jokic     Den   21  .570   16.5  11.6   3.7   1.7   2.3  1.0  1.74
4.3   Jahlil Okafor    Phl   30  .531   20.0   8.1   1.3    .5   2.8  1.4  1.19
3.3   Myles Turner     Ind   23  .524   16.5   8.1    .9    .6   1.6  2.2  1.19

3.2   D'Angelo Russell LAL   28  .506   16.0   4.2   4.0   1.5   3.0   .2   .71
2.6   Frank Kaminsky   Cha   21  .501   12.1   6.5   2.2    .8   1.2   .9   .76
2.6   W Cauley-Stein   Sac   20  .595   11.3   8.8    .7   1.1   1.1  1.7   .96
2.6   Emmanuel Mudiay  Den   30  .423   13.7   4.2   6.4   1.2   3.8   .7   .61
2.5   Devin Booker     Phx   27  .539   16.7   3.1   3.1    .7   2.6   .3   .60

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
2.3   T.J. McConnell   Phl   20  .517   10.2   5.3   6.8   2.1   3.1   .2   .71
2.1   Boban Marjanovic SAS    9  .636   22.2  13.2   1.5    .9   1.9  1.3  2.22
2.1   Bobby Portis     Chi   17  .467   13.2   9.5   1.5    .8   1.7   .7   .96
2.0   Trey Lyles       Uta   16  .507   12.3   8.1   1.5    .6   1.6   .5   .74
2.0   Stanley Johnson  Det   23  .469   12.3   6.3   2.4   1.1   2.4   .2   .55

1.7   Larry Nance Jr.  LAL   20  .536    9.2   8.2   1.1   1.4   1.1   .6   .67
1.7   Justise Winslow  Mia   29  .493    8.3   6.5   1.9   1.1   1.6   .4   .37
1.3   Raul Neto        Uta   19  .536   12.3   2.9   4.1   1.4   2.5   .0   .40
1.2   Richaun Holmes   Phl   14  .557   13.1   6.1   1.4    .9   1.5  1.9   .78
1.2   Cameron Payne    Okl   12  .505   13.2   4.4   5.4   1.8   2.0   .3   .86

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.1   Jonathon Simmons SAS   14  .575   15.1   3.9   2.7   1.0   2.2   .2   .65
1.1   Willie Reed      Brk   11  .584   14.4   9.2    .7    .5   1.3  2.3  1.18
1.0 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk   21  .534    8.6   9.7   2.2   2.4   1.7   .6   .93
1.0   Josh Richardson  Mia   19  .578   11.7   3.4   2.2   1.3   1.1   .8   .50
1.0   Nemanja Bjelica  Min   17  .546    8.7   6.5   2.4    .8   1.5   .6   .47

Making notable moves since 5 weeks ago:

Code: Select all

0.7   Devin Booker      Phx
0.5   Nikola Jokic      Den
0.5   Emmanuel Mudiay   Den
0.5   Trey Lyles        Uta
0.4   Myles Turner      Ind
0.3 ? Josh Richardson   Mia
0.3  Karl-Anthony Towns Min
0.3   Bobby Portis      Chi
0.3   Willie Reed       Brk
...
-0.3 Kristaps Porzingis NYK
-0.3   T.J. McConnell   Phl
-0.4   Stanley Johnson  Det
-0.4   Cameron Payne    Okl
-1.2   Jahlil Okafor    Phl

I'm guessing on Richardson, since he didn't appear on my Feb. 25 installment -- he was less than 0.8 projected eWins, and now he's at 1.0

[Mike G]

Taking the top 100 WinShares seasons by rookies in the last 10 years -- that is >1.3 WS -- scaling 2012 and this year's crop up to 82 games:

Code: Select all

. yr    Age    Min     PER   WS/48   WS    VORP    BPM
2007   22.5   25645   14.1   .094   50.3    7.3   -0.9
2008   22.6   23422   14.4   .102   49.8    9.6   -0.4
2009   21.1   47776   15.0   .094   93.1   16.0   -0.7
2010   21.6   39877   14.7   .097   80.6   13.5   -0.7
2011   21.8   25150   15.0   .102   53.3   13.3    0.1

2012   21.5   33199   14.3   .096   66.2   17.4    0.1
2013   22.1   34296   14.0   .089   63.9    8.6   -1.0
2014   22.3   20316   12.8   .081   34.1    5.4   -1.0
2015   21.8   22645   13.5   .075   35.5    7.4   -0.7
2016   21.1   24416   15.0   .112   52.4   10.1   -0.3

avg    21.8   29473   14.3   .094   57.9   10.9   -0.5

This year's crop has more impact than the last 2 yrs, but they haven't gotten the minutes of an elite group.

EDIT: Search omitted Okafor, Portis, Bjelica, Reed -- so they didn't get scaled up, etc.
They total about 5 WS.