Rookies 2015-16

[Mike G]

All stats from: http://www.basketball-reference.com/

With 8% of the season completed, projecting minutes to date over the rest of the season, rookies would end up with 56 eWins total:

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e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF    Stl   TO   Blk  e484
9.4   Karl-A Towns   Min   28  .514   21.4  11.6   1.8   4.9    .3   2.1  3.9  1.96
6.8   K Porzingis    NYK   24  .483   18.3  12.4   1.1   6.1   1.9   2.3  1.9  1.66
6.1   Jahlil Okafor  Phl   34  .549   21.3   6.0   1.3   3.4    .4   3.2  1.2  1.05
4.2  Nemanja Bjelica Min   29  .567   10.4   9.0   3.5   3.8   1.0   1.7   .5   .87
4.1   T.J. McConnell Phl   29  .516    6.8   5.9   8.3   2.5   2.1   3.1   .6   .83

3.6   W Cauley-Stein Sac   22  .671   11.4   9.4    .8   4.6   1.8   1.4  1.8   .97
2.7   Jerian Grant   NYK   22  .485   10.9   4.0   6.2   3.9   1.5   2.2   .0   .72
2.5 D'Angelo Russell LAL   25  .471   12.2   4.4   3.6   2.4   1.7   2.2   .2   .61
2.1  Emmanuel Mudiay Den   31  .388   12.6   4.5   6.3   3.2   1.6   6.4   .8   .42
1.9   R H-Jefferson  Brk   18  .481    6.5   9.3   2.1   2.9   2.4   1.6   .8   .62

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF    Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.6   Myles Turner   Ind   18  .542   13.1   5.7    .3   4.3    .9   1.2  2.2   .61
1.4  Justise Winslow Mia   28  .510   10.1   6.0   1.7   3.2    .7   1.6   .2   .30
1.2 Montrezl Harrell Hou   11  .686   15.6   5.7    .4   3.7    .4   1.3   .8   .67
1.1   Frank Kaminsky Cha   10  .579   12.2   3.7   3.1   1.6    .5    .0   .0   .67
1.1   Richaun Holmes Phl   12  .568   11.3   5.8   1.1   3.5    .4    .9  1.7   .53

1.1   Raul Neto      Uta   18  .409   10.1   3.0   3.6   2.0   1.7   2.0   .3   .35
0.8   Nikola Jokic   Den   16  .500   11.5   7.6    .8   2.8    .4   2.4   .8   .36

[Dr Positivity]

This rookie class is superb

Winslow's defense to me is WTF? for a 19 year old rookie. 86.7 on court DRTG and has visibly dominated individual matchups like when Kawhi and Tony eat an opponent. Normally I would say drafting wings for defense alone is dangerous because many cannot physically dominate NBA like they do college, and then they just become 8th men who can't dribble or shoot well enough, but is he a defensive genius/freak?

[Mike G]

It's looking like 29 eW in the East and 27 in the West. East Conf. always gets more rookie production, but this year it's close.
By position:
C 23.5 - Towns, Okafor, Cauley-Stein, Turner, Kaminsky, Jokic, Marjanovic
PF 14.8 - Porzingis, Bjelica, Harrell, Holmes, Mickey, Portis
PG 12.8 - McConnell, Grant, Russell, Mudiay, Neto
SF 4.0 - Hollis-Jefferson, Winslow, S Johnson
SG 0.9 - Booker,

Rookie minutes always increase as the season progresses, so these numbers will all rise.

[Mike G]

Karl-Anthony Towns has quite the skills package. Noticing his 7-8 FT shooting, I wondered how other 7-foot rookies have fared. Turns out, Towns is among the top (5) 7'+ rookies in a bunch of categories, in the 3-pt era.

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PER    rookies        DReb%               Blk%  
26.3  Robinson '90    28.8  Sabonis '96   10.6  Bol '86
24.7  Sabonis '96     28.5  Gobert '14     9.2  Eaton '83
22.9  Shaq '93        27.1  Shaq '93       8.4  Towns '16
21.9  Towns '16       27.0  Towns '16      7.9  Ostertag '96
21.1  Olajuwon '85    26.1  Nurkic '15     7.9  McIlvaine '95

TO%    rookies        Usg%                WS/48
_7.8  S Hunter '02    27.1  Sampson '84   .241  Robinson '90
_9.7  Vucevic '12     27.0  Shaq '93      .233  Sabonis '96
10.2  Hibbert '09     26.6  Robinson '90  .198  Towns '16
10.4  Wennington '86  26.5  Ewing '86     .189  Ilgauskas '98
10.6  Towns '16       25.5  Sabonis '96   .176  Yao '03
.                     23.8  Towns '16

DBPM  rookies       BPM                  FT%
6.4  Bol '86        6.5  Robinson '90   .889  Towns '16
5.5  Eaton '83      5.6  Sabonis '96    .841  Yi Jianlian '08
4.4  Towns '16      4.0  Towns '16      .824  Bargnani  '07
3.8  Robinson '90   3.7  Shaq '93       .811  Olynyk '14
3.8  Bowie '85      3.6  Bowie '85      .811  Yao '03
.                   3.4  Olajuwon '85 

Towns is 16/18 on FT, but it's not a fluke. He hit over 80% in one college season.
Note that his BPM < DBPM, with OBPM = -0.4
Of the top 100 WS seasons by 7' rookies, he's 38th in TS% (.556) and 28th in Ast%
http://bkref.com/tiny/wXkuu

Low marks: 54th in OReb% (9.9), last in Stl% (1 so far). These ranks include seasons with <200 minutes.

[Crow]

Too early to conclude anything but Russell having a lot of difficulty at Staples, much better on road. Randle strongly the opposite.

[Mike G]

Just 6 rookies have had a debut season with PER>20, WS/48>.180, and BPM>3.5
... since 1978, in at least 200 minutes:

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player    yr   age   PER   WS/48   BPM   xyz
Magic    1980   20   20.6   .180   5.5   3.09
Bird     1980   23   20.5   .182   5.3   3.07
Jordan   1985   21   25.8   .213   8.2   3.88

Robinson 1990   24   26.3   .241   6.5   3.89
Sabonis  1996   31   24.7   .233   5.6   3.65
Duncan   1998   21   22.6   .192   5.5   3.29

Towns    2016   20   22.1   .197   4.0   3.12

http://bkref.com/tiny/q8006
xyz = ((PER-5)*ws/48*(BPM+5)^(1/3)
Besides the old guys, DRob and Sabo, only Jordan was clearly better as a rookie.
Chris Paul '06 just misses, with WS/48 = .178

[Dr Positivity]

Rookies over 50 MP in VEDS per minute

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Nemanja Bjelica	MIN	0.761
Frank Kaminsky	CHA	0.659
Karl-Anthony Towns	MIN	0.652
Justin Anderson	DAL	0.586
Willie Cauley-Stein	SAC	0.567
Lamar Patterson	ATL	0.541
Richaun Holmes	PHI	0.494
Myles Turner	IND	0.484
Kristaps Porzingis	NYK	0.48
Montrezl Harrell	HOU	0.463
Justise Winslow	MIA	0.418
Nikola Jokic	DEN	0.411
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	BKN	0.393
Jerian Grant	NYK	0.374
Raul Neto	UTA	0.335
Stanley Johnson	DET	0.293
T.J. McConnell	PHI	0.235
Jahlil Okafor	PHI	0.231
Marcelo Huertas	LAL	0.197
D'Angelo Russell	LAL	0.194
Christian Wood	PHI	0.164
Rashad Vaughn	MIL	0.095
Emmanuel Mudiay	DEN	0.082
Mario Hezonja	ORL	0.063
Trey Lyles	UTA	-0.003

VEDS per game

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Nemanja Bjelica	MIN	22.387
Karl-Anthony Towns	MIN	18.97
Willie Cauley-Stein	SAC	12.019
Justise Winslow	MIA	11.87
Kristaps Porzingis	NYK	11.853
Josh Richardson	MIA	8.556
Jerian Grant	NYK	8.009
Jahlil Okafor	PHI	7.801
Larry Nance Jr.	LAL	7.745
Myles Turner	IND	7.695
Richaun Holmes	PHI	7.114
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	BKN	6.874
Lamar Patterson	ATL	6.872
T.J. McConnell	PHI	6.817
Nikola Jokic	DEN	6.542
Stanley Johnson	DET	6.243
Frank Kaminsky	CHA	5.93
Jordan Mickey	BOS	5.8
Raul Neto	UTA	5.695
Devin Booker	PHX	5.118
Montrezl Harrell	HOU	5.049
D'Angelo Russell	LAL	4.862
Bobby Portis	CHI	4.808
R.J. Hunter	BOS	4.714
Justin Anderson	DAL	4.69
Emmanuel Mudiay	DEN	2.521
Marcelo Huertas	LAL	2.499
Kelly Oubre	WAS	1.43
Boban Marjanovic	SAS	1.269
Christian Wood	PHI	1.267
Salah Mejri	DAL	1.119
Tibor Pleiss	UTA	1.078
Mario Hezonja	ORL	0.952
Rashad Vaughn	MIL	0.808
Sam Dekker	HOU	0.744
Walter Tavares	ATL	0.479
Trey Lyles	UTA	-0.026
Erick Green	DEN	-0.16
Pat Connaughton	POR	-0.229
Cameron Payne	OKC	-0.448
Luis Montero	POR	-0.625
Joseph Young	IND	-1.001
Norman Powell	TOR	-1.115
Terry Rozier	BOS	-3.667
Delon Wright	TOR	-4.172
Tyus Jones	MIN	-4.227

Bjelica's number is 21st in the whole NBA in VEDS per game, Towns is 47th. If Bjelica's 3pt is for real what a drool worthy FC going forward, with Towns as the future defender and interior scorer superstar and Bjelica as the perfect compliment opening up space for him. Winslow, Cauley-Stein and Porzingis have been asked to play a lot of minutes and overall done admirably. Mudiay has a lot of buzz right now but his numbers are at least the moment terrible, as a high usage player at 83 ORTG. His last 2 games have been his best though. Okafor is putting up the worst kind of 20ppg as it gets (inefficient, poor D and non floor spacing), with that and Noel and Stauskas having bad seasons and no Covington, the 76ers have no liferaft atm. Encouraging starts by three under the radar lower picks in Patterson, Holmes and Harrell

[Mike G]

At .133 of the season, some cross-metric comparisons. Ranked by minutes, rookies w >70 min.

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rookies '15-16     tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484   e82  ws82
Jahlil Okafor      Phl   34   16.0   .008   -3.5  1.12   6.4    .5
Emmanuel Mudiay    Den   31    8.3  -.108   -5.3   .72   3.7  -5.7
T.J. McConnell     Phl   30   13.7   .057   -1.2   .69   3.5   2.9
Karl-Anthony Towns Min   29   20.9   .148    1.0  1.84   9.0   7.3
Kristaps Porzingis NYK   25   18.0   .126   -1.4  1.62   7.0   5.5

Nemanja Bjelica    Min   27   11.8   .112    3.3   .81   3.7   5.2
Justise Winslow    Mia   29    8.1   .066   -0.1   .34   1.6   3.2
D'Angelo Russell   LAL   25   12.4   .011   -1.3   .78   3.3    .5
Jerian Grant       NYK   21   10.9   .064   -2.7   .61   2.1   2.3
Stanley Johnson    Det   20    8.6   .025   -2.6   .56   1.9    .9

rookies '15-16     tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484   e82  ws82
Willie Cauley-Stein Sac  20   16.2   .149    2.4  1.08   3.6   5.0
Rondae H-Jefferson Brk   19   13.2   .069    0.5   .79   2.6   2.3
Raul Neto          Uta   17    7.0   .018   -2.8   .34   1.0    .5
Mario Hezonja      Orl   15    5.0  -.035   -6.5  -.08   -.2   -.9
Nikola Jokic       Den   14   18.0   .124    0.5   .96   2.0   2.6

Myles Turner       Ind   16   13.8   .116   -2.7   .71   1.4   2.3
Larry Nance Jr.    LAL   18   10.2   .057   -5.0   .30    .6   1.1
Frank Kaminsky     Cha   12   11.2   .074   -1.1   .50    .9   1.3
Montrezl Harrell   Hou   11   17.6   .130   -3.0   .75   1.3   2.2
Richaun Holmes     Phl   14   15.3   .105    0.3   .64   1.0   1.6

rookies '15-16     tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484   e82  ws82
Marcelo Huertas    LAL   13   11.5   .022   -3.3   .51    .7    .3
Lamar Patterson    Atl   13    6.8   .061   -4.1   .03    .0    .7
Christian Wood     Phl   10   19.7   .145   -1.9  1.14   1.5   1.9
Trey Lyles         Uta    9    2.5  -.073   -7.9   .23    .3  -1.0
Justin Anderson    Dal    7   13.8   .079   -2.2   .67    .8    .9
R.J. Hunter        Bos   12    3.2   .018   -5.9   .01    .0    .2

all rookies        NBA        12.0   .050   -2.2   .73  61.3  41.9

Okafor is either very good, or he's very, very bad.

[Statman]

[/code]Okafor is either very good, or he's very, very bad.

Funny, going into last night, his HnI was 100, which is completely average.

He has 0 WAR (my WAR), but that's because Philly hasn't won a game yet.

Philly outscored by 149 w/ Okafor on the court, by far the worst in the NBA.

Of course, Wiggins & Lavine were by far the worst last season in overall minus, & fans tell me Wiggins is a small step away from being a superstar.

[Mike G]

At .163 of the season, rookies now project to 63 eWins on the season.

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e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl    TO   Blk  e484
9.5 Karl-Anthony Towns Min   29  .570   21.1  13.1   1.4    .9   2.9   3.0  1.91
7.5 Kristaps Porzingis NYK   26  .512   19.9  12.3   1.1   1.0   2.4   2.1  1.69
5.7   Jahlil Okafor    Phl   33  .485   19.3   7.9   1.1    .3   3.3   1.8  1.01
4.1   Emmanuel Mudiay  Den   30  .399   14.4   4.6   7.3   1.4   5.2   1.1   .80
3.6   D'Angelo Russell LAL   26  .480   14.1   5.6   3.9   1.3   2.4    .4   .81

3.5   Nikola Jokic     Den   16  .573   15.4  10.6   1.5   2.1   1.8   1.0  1.35
3.3   T.J. McConnell   Phl   29  .544    9.0   6.0   6.3   1.5   3.5    .5   .67
3.1   Wi Cauley-Stein  Sac   19  .607    9.5  10.5    .5   1.5   1.6   2.0   .94
3.1   Nemanja Bjelica  Min   27  .554    9.9   7.8   2.8    .7   1.2    .5   .75
3.1 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk   21  .511    8.5   9.9   2.4   2.7   2.3    .7   .85

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl    TO   Blk  e484
2.0   Jerian Grant     NYK   20  .471   11.5   3.9   5.2   1.0   2.2    .0   .61
1.8   Stanley Johnson  Det   20  .439   13.1   6.5   1.9   1.0   2.1    .0   .53
1.6   Frank Kaminsky   Cha   13  .554   11.4   4.8   2.6   1.1    .6   1.3   .76
1.4   Justise Winslow  Mia   28  .508   10.4   5.9   1.8    .8   2.3    .2   .30
1.3   Christian Wood   Phl    9  .494   13.8   8.5    .7   1.3    .7   1.6  1.05

1.3   Myles Turner     Ind   16  .570   14.7   5.9    .3    .8   1.6   1.9   .76
1.1   Raul Neto        Uta   17  .421    9.5   2.6   5.3   2.2   2.6    .2   .38
0.9   Devin Booker     Phx   10  .653   17.5   3.0   1.1   1.0   1.7   1.0   .72
0.9   Montrezl Harrell Hou   10  .658   13.5   5.6    .5    .8   2.0   1.3   .56
0.8   Richaun Holmes   Phl   14  .537   12.2   5.1   1.0    .3   1.0   2.0   .64

West now in front, 32-31.

[Mike G]

While it seems certain this year's crop of rookies is better than last year's, we can speculate on how much better. Are they already doing more than current 2nd-year players?
Totals and averages for: last year's rookies thru the whole season, the same group this year; and current rookies.

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season    yr   Min    mpg    PER   WS/48    WS     BPM    VORP
2014-15   1   51506   17.5   11.2   .045   48.6   -2.44  -5.71
2015-16   2   11096   18.5   13.3   .075   17.4   -1.41   1.64

2015-16   1    8083   16.1   12.1   .051    8.6   -2.13   -.26

Minutes and per-minute rates will certainly pick up during the season, for both classes.
mpg are minutes per appearance, i.e. (all Min)/(all G)
The season is just about 1/5 completed. I'd guess rookies get about twice as many total minutes in the final 1/5.

[Mike G]

At .224 of this season, rookies are on pace for 59 eWins. This is a bit of a slowdown in 2 weeks, and it seems to be in the West.

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e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
8.28  Kris Porzingis  NYK   28  .517   19.2  11.7   1.2   4.0    .9   2.3  2.6  1.74
8.24  Karl-A Towns    Min   27  .549   19.5  12.1   1.1   3.7   1.0   2.7  2.9  1.77
6.0   Jahlil Okafor   Phl   33  .483   19.3   8.3   1.3   3.2    .4   3.2  1.8  1.13
3.5  D'Angelo Russell LAL   28  .476   13.5   5.4   3.7   2.2   1.3   2.4   .3   .75
3.5   Emmanuel Mudiay Den   30  .379   13.3   4.2   6.6   2.7   1.3   4.7   .9   .68

3.4   Nikola Jokic    Den   17  .582   16.0   9.6   1.4   3.6   1.5   2.1  1.0  1.26
3.4   T.J. McConnell  Phl   27  .533    9.3   5.6   6.6   2.6   1.7   3.3   .5   .74
3.4   R H-Jefferson   Brk   22  .527    8.8  10.0   2.0   3.5   2.4   1.9   .7   .89
2.6   Nemanja Bjelica Min   26  .571   10.0   7.6   2.7   4.4    .7   1.0   .6   .74
2.4   W Cauley-Stein  Sac   19  .575    8.4   9.4    .5   4.4   1.2   1.3  2.0   .76

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
2.1   Stanley Johnson Det   21  .456   13.9   6.2   1.7   3.8   1.1   2.1   .2   .59
1.5   Jerian Grant    NYK   18  .489   11.6   3.5   4.8   3.0    .8   2.4   .1   .50
1.4   Justise Winslow Mia   29  .504    9.5   6.2   2.0   3.3    .7   2.0   .2   .30
1.3   Raul Neto       Uta   18  .407    8.9   2.7   5.3   3.6   2.2   2.1   .1   .43
1.3   Frank Kaminsky  Cha   15  .521   11.0   4.4   1.9   2.5    .7    .7  1.0   .52

0.8   Myles Turner    Ind   16  .570   13.9   5.5    .3   4.0    .8   1.5  1.8   .67
0.8   Christian Wood  Phl    9  .494   12.9   7.8    .7   2.6   1.2    .6  1.5   .94
0.8   Devin Booker    Phx   13  .651   14.3   2.8   1.1   3.5   1.0   1.3   .5   .46
0.7   Richaun Holmes  Phl   14  .548   11.8   4.7    .7   3.8    .2   1.1  2.2   .54
0.6  Montrezl Harrell Hou   10  .675   12.7   5.4    .4   4.5    .6   1.8  1.1   .46

[Mike G]

At .254 of the season, rookies project to total ~58 eWins.
These top 2 look awfully similar in production.

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e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF    Stl   TO   Blk  e484
8.8 Karl-Anthony Towns Min   28  .571   20.2  11.9   1.3   4.0    .9   2.8  2.8  1.86
8.6 Kristaps Porzingis NYK   28  .543   20.3  11.1   1.2   4.0    .9   2.5  2.6  1.80
5.4   Jahlil Okafor    Phl   33  .474   18.4   8.1   1.2   3.1    .3   3.2  1.7  1.08
3.4   Emmanuel Mudiay  Den   30  .376   12.6   4.3   6.9   2.6   1.3   4.8   .9   .67
3.3   Nikola Jokic     Den   17  .581   16.0   9.9   1.4   3.5   1.5   2.0  1.0  1.29

3.3   D'Angelo Russell LAL   27  .478   13.7   5.6   3.7   2.2   1.3   2.9   .2   .71
3.2   T.J. McConnell   Phl   27  .512    9.0   5.8   6.4   2.5   1.7   3.2   .4   .71
2.9 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk   22  .516    8.4   9.8   1.9   3.5   2.3   1.8   .6   .81
2.4   Nemanja Bjelica  Min   25  .587   10.0   7.8   2.6   4.3    .6   1.1   .5   .73
2.4   W Cauley-Stein   Sac   19  .589    8.6   9.3    .6   4.5   1.1   1.3  2.2   .83

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF    Stl   TO   Blk  e484
2.0   Stanley Johnson  Det   22  .445   13.1   5.9   1.7   3.6   1.0   1.9   .2   .55
1.4   Raul Neto        Uta   18  .445   10.0   3.0   5.0   3.7   2.1   2.4   .1   .47
1.3   Jerian Grant     NYK   18  .483   11.1   3.6   4.8   3.0    .8   2.6   .1   .44
1.1   Frank Kaminsky   Cha   16  .508   10.5   4.5   1.8   2.7    .6    .9   .7   .43
1.0   Devin Booker     Phx   14  .641   14.3   2.9   1.6   3.2   1.0   1.3   .4   .52

0.8   Justise Winslow  Mia   29  .476    8.3   6.0   1.8   3.5    .8   2.0   .2   .16
0.8   Myles Turner     Ind   16  .570   13.4   5.5    .3   4.0    .8   1.5  1.8   .66
0.7   Christian Wood   Phl    9  .494   12.7   7.8    .7   2.6   1.2    .6  1.5   .94
0.7   Boban Marjanovic SAS    5  .600   23.5  10.2   1.6   6.3   1.1   3.2   .5  1.66
0.7   Richaun Holmes   Phl   15  .563   11.6   5.2    .6   4.3    .2   1.4  2.0   .49

[Statman]

I actually just ran my WAR rankings - here's how my results so far compare to what you have, just for fun:

Code: Select all

+------+---------+-------------------------+-----+---------+------+--------+------+-----+------+
| Rank | eWinRnk |         Player          | Tm  | WARpace | Rank | WAR/48 | Rank | HnI | Rank |
+------+---------+-------------------------+-----+---------+------+--------+------+-----+------+
|    1 |       2 | Kristaps Porzingis      | NYK | 8.99    |   36 | 15.45  |   36 | 121 |   31 |
|    2 |       1 | Karl-Anthony Towns      | MIN | 7.86    |   45 | 13.72  |   44 | 123 |   27 |
|    3 |       5 | Nikola Jokic            | DEN | 3.07    |  140 | 9.72   |   86 | 105 |   89 |
|    4 |       9 | Nemanja Bjelica         | MIN | 2.17    |  173 | 5.33   |  175 |  97 |  156 |
|    5 |       8 | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | BRK | 1.53    |  196 | 3.51   |  208 |  94 |  184 |
|    6 |      10 | Willie Cauley-Stein     | SAC | 1.26    |  208 | 3.53   |  207 |  92 |  200 |
|    7 |      15 | Devin Booker            | PHO | 1.18    |  216 | 4.96   |  183 |  96 |  165 |
|    8 |      16 | Justise Winslow         | MIA | 1.10    |  217 | 1.84   |  237 |  84 |  248 |
|    9 |       6 | D'Angelo Russell        | LAL | 1.08    |  220 | 1.89   |  235 |  89 |  221 |
|   10 |      14 | Frank Kaminsky          | CHO | 0.81    |  231 | 2.61   |  225 |  87 |  231 |
|   11 |      19 | Boban Marjanovic        | SAS | 0.77    |  237 | 14.82  |      | 117 |      |
|   12 |       7 | T.J. McConnell          | PHI | 0.76    |  239 | 1.35   |  250 |  96 |  164 |
|   13 |      17 | Myles Turner            | IND | 0.72    |  244 | 5.19   |      |  93 |      |
|   14 |       4 | Emmanuel Mudiay         | DEN | 0.68    |  247 | 1.08   |  255 |  83 |  261 |
|   15 |       3 | Jahlil Okafor           | PHI | 0.61    |  253 | 0.98   |  257 |  91 |  204 |
|   16 |      13 | Jerian Grant            | NYK | 0.61    |  254 | 1.63   |  243 |  84 |  251 |
|   17 |      11 | Stanley Johnson         | DET | 0.58    |  256 | 1.31   |  252 |  83 |  259 |
|   18 |         | Jonathon Simmons        | SAS | 0.43    |  268 | 4.36   |      |  91 |      |
|   19 |         | Montrezl Harrell        | HOU | 0.39    |  273 | 2.55   |  227 |  86 |  236 |
|   20 |         | Marcelo Huertas         | LAL | 0.34    |  274 | 2.74   |      |  93 |      |
|   21 |         | Bobby Portis            | CHI | 0.26    |  277 | 10.49  |      | 102 |      |
|   22 |      12 | Raul Neto               | UTA | 0.19    |  282 | 0.53   |  262 |  81 |  264 |
|   23 |         | Willie Reed             | BRK | 0.15    |  291 | 6.74   |      | 107 |      |
|   24 |         | Cliff Alexander         | POR | 0.14    |  292 | 5.06   |      |  96 |      |
|   25 |      20 | Richaun Holmes          | PHI | 0.14    |  293 | 0.83   |  259 |  90 |  219 |
|   26 |      18 | Christian Wood          | PHI | 0.12    |  296 | 1.26   |      |  95 |      |
+------+---------+-------------------------+-----+---------+------+--------+------+-----+------+

The three metrics on the right are the three general ones I throw out there all the time. Wins Above Replacement over an 82 game schedule, WAR if the guy played EVERY available minute of the season at the current WAR rate (WAR/48, 8.2 would be league average), and Hoops Nerd Impact - a single number rating with 100 being league average.

The rankings are the right are NBA rankings - 430 players ranked in WAR, 317 in WAR/48 & HnI (dropping off players < than 142 minutes).

The Sixers are underrated overall in terms of WAR - since I convert current exact team win % over 82 games. They'll win more than 4 games. But, while eWins has Okafor as a strong #3 overall - my WAR currently has him second to TJ McConnell on his own team. In HnI (my per minute production rating not tied to team wins but team efficiencies) among >142 minute rookies - Okafor is 9th, TJ McConnell 5th.

In terms of the rank, looks like Okafor & Mudiay are the biggest outliers that eWins favors more - Booker & Winslow & Bjelica my WAR favors more. Marjanovic also, but his minutes are still pretty low.

One may think my ratings are big man heavy by the rankings above - but they are not in general, it's just how this group of players worked out.

It would make sense big men in general should be better out the gate - since college to NBA conversions see big efficiency issues on high usage guys their first year, with big improvements the following years (tied to how young they are obviously). 2pt usage & efficiency translates better than three or FT from college to pro, with smaller career curve peak than the latter two. Rebounding & shot blocks translate best 1st year, with no real career curve improvement per minute on average.

Now, while the big's (especially low usage ones) tend to have a smaller career peak peak from their rookie year - the better ones improve in playing time quite a bit, as they improve & their foul rate drops.

[Mike G]

... looks like Okafor & Mudiay are the biggest outliers that eWins favors more ...

Okafor has hit just 38% of his shots since you said he was 'average' in your system. Mudiay has shot badly all year.

My interactive spreadsheet isn't giving a normal strong relationship between TS% and team wins, so these guys are getting the benefit of that in eWins. I suspect the Warriors' ridiculous shooting is messing with things, and most likely it evens out before long.

Even so, we see a couple of teams that really need what these guys bring.
Saying the Nuggets' guard corps is shaky would be an understatement. Their only other distributor, Jameer Nelson, has shot almost as badly as Mudiay (.427 v .376), while the rookie has just been more productive in Reb, Ast, Stl, and even scoring. Nelson hasn't historically been an ironman, and he's 33. He's been waived, traded for Nate Robinson ...

Okafor is the only Sixer with >14.5 FGA/100 (23.8) and >.440 FG%
He and Noel are their best rebounders. He and J Grant are their shotblockers -- Noel has abdicated.
McConnell and Pressey aren't the greatest PG. Okafor is unassisted on 61% of his FG. He might not help a great team, but this team is severely lacking.