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Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 2:57 pm
by Mike G
Here are imputed SRS for first-round exiters: SRS = oppSRS + MOV
Code: Select all
tm opp srs mov bpm SRS 5bpm
Bos Cle 4.1 -9.3 -.73 -5.2 -3.7
Mil Chi 2.5 -12.3 -1.80 -9.8 -9.0
Tor Was .2 -14.0 -3.01 -13.8 -15.1
Brk Atl 4.8 -5.5 .28 -.8 1.4
Dal Hou 3.8 -4.2 .26 -.4 1.3
Por Mem 3.6 -6.8 -.38 -3.2 -1.9
NOP GSW 10.0 -8.0 1.18 2.0 5.9
SAS LAC 6.8 .4 2.16 7.2 10.8
The last 2 columns should be close. Multiplying or dividing by pace/100 doesn't give much consistency.
Those last 2 -- Pels and Spurs -- are especially perplexing. Both teams have way-high BPM at b-r.com, relative to their teams' playoff SRS.
Raps' BPM*5 is lower than their team SRS. This is at least consistent with their near-zero WS rates.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2015.html
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 3:47 pm
by Crow
Spurs and Pelicans were among the highest on playoff assists per game despite average and below average pace. Raptors were below average on assists. Spurs best on defensive rebounding rate. Pelicans worst. Raptors worst on offensive rebounding. Is the way BPM handles assists and rebounds the reason or part of the reason for your noted discrepancy? I wonder about that but there are other possible answers.
Playoff SRS is jerky. And I guess it might be worth noting that pace is avg. team offensive possessions and it can vary a bit depending on end of quarter plays. Perhaps points off of fouls or technical fouls varied from expected? Or off steals or saved by blocks? I dunno. May not be worth sweating it.
Celtics and Blazers? Both below avg. on assists per game on slow pace, Blazers much lower. Both below average on offensive rebounds. Blazers high on defensive rebounds while Celtics were quite low. One overachieved, one underachieved in the comparison.
There may be other inaccuracies / distortions involved at least in these discrete cases, perhaps on the defensive side and perhaps for these same factors. Metric designed to do best possible on average across broad data set.
Boston and New Orleans very high on 3pt rate, Spurs low, Blazers by far lowest. Pelicans and Raptors
very high on 3pt assisted rate, Blazers, Spurs and Celtics low or very low.
I looked at 5 stats and these teams were almost always well away from average. Not such a surprise to me that their BPM estimates vary from playoff SRS. Also if playoff BPM is based on regular season BPM values there might be some regular season to playoff variance in those values?
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 12:46 am
by Mike G
LeBron is dominating his team to make them competitive in these Finals. After 5 games, his per game averages are heroic in scale.
Here are the top 10 Finalists since 1985 in per game Pts+Ast+Reb+Stl+Blk.
The final colum multiplies this Total by 100/pace. Every event is more frequent when there are more possessions.
Code: Select all
Finals yr Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk T pace adj
Magic 1987 26.2 8.0 13.0 2.3 .3 49.8 97.3 51.2
Jordan 1991 31.2 6.6 11.4 2.8 1.4 53.4 85.8 62.2
Jordan 1993 41.0 8.5 6.3 1.7 .7 58.2 89.7 64.8
Hakeem 1995 32.8 11.5 5.5 2.0 2.0 53.8 94.9 56.6
Shaq 2000 38.0 16.7 2.3 1.0 2.7 60.7 91.5 66.3
Shaq 2001 33.0 15.8 4.8 .4 3.4 57.4 89.6 64.1
Shaq 2002 36.3 12.3 3.8 .5 2.8 55.5 90.9 61.1
Duncan 2003 24.2 17.0 5.3 1.0 5.3 52.8 87.8 60.2
Wade 2006 34.7 7.8 3.8 2.7 1.0 50.0 90.3 55.4
LeBron 2015 35.8 13.3 8.8 1.3 .5 59.8 90.7 66.0
One could argue that LeBron's low TS% make his Pts/G less valuable.
One could also note that his 36.6 Pts are .367 of opponent points in the series.
Shaq in 2000 scored .356 of what the Pacers scored.
Jordan scored .384 of Suns' total points in '93.
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:20 pm
by Mike G
The above table has been edited to include the Finals' game 6.
LeBron increased his per-game averages total, on the strength of 18 rebounds in the finale.
But the avg pace of the series increased enough that he drops behind 2000 Shaq, ending up with just the 2nd most prolific Finals production in the last 31 years.
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2015 9:45 am
by Mike G
All-playoff teams.
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm G Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
4.99 LeBron James Cle 20 42 .479 26.9 10.1 8.3 1.4 3.9 .9 2.86
4.14 Stephen Curry GSW 21 39 .598 31.4 4.7 6.6 1.7 3.7 .1 2.42
2.68 James Harden Hou 17 37 .603 27.8 5.2 7.2 1.6 4.7 .4 2.04
2.55 Blake Griffin LAC 14 40 .546 23.1 11.3 6.0 .9 3.1 .9 2.21
2.43 Draymond Green GSW 21 37 .508 14.2 10.0 5.7 1.8 2.8 1.2 1.50
1.99 Dwight Howard Hou 17 34 .526 16.3 14.1 1.3 1.5 2.5 2.4 1.68
1.95 Chris Paul LAC 12 37 .618 23.5 4.2 9.0 1.8 2.3 .2 2.13
1.76 Klay Thompson GSW 21 36 .548 19.7 3.9 3.0 .8 2.0 .9 1.12
1.75 Jimmy Butler Chi 12 42 .552 22.8 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.7 .6 1.67
1.74 Al Horford Atl 16 33 .523 17.1 9.4 4.3 .9 1.9 1.6 1.62
eWins per36 rates tm G Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.72 Marc Gasol Mem 11 38 .484 19.6 10.0 4.4 .9 1.5 1.6 2.00
1.61 Jeff Teague Atl 16 33 .500 19.2 3.4 7.7 1.7 3.1 .5 1.47
1.59 Kyrie Irving Cle 13 36 .563 22.1 3.8 4.5 1.3 1.7 .8 1.66
1.57 Derrick Rose Chi 12 38 .479 21.1 4.8 7.4 1.1 3.4 .4 1.68
1.54 DeAndre Jordan LAC 14 34 .574 13.9 13.7 1.2 1.2 1.4 2.3 1.55
1.50 Paul Millsap Atl 16 35 .490 15.7 8.6 3.6 1.6 2.3 .9 1.28
1.40 Andre Iguodala GSW 21 30 .536 13.0 5.2 4.7 1.4 .8 .4 1.07
1.38 Timofey Mozgov Cle 20 26 .562 16.7 10.5 .9 .6 2.9 2.4 1.26
1.27 DeMarre Carroll Atl 16 35 .590 17.5 6.2 2.1 1.2 1.0 .3 1.10
1.22 Bradley Beal Was 10 42 .510 21.4 4.8 3.9 1.4 2.4 .6 1.41
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2015 9:34 pm
by Mike G
Was LeBron the best loser ever? Or relative to anyone on the winning team?
Last 10 years' top Finals participants in aggregate Game Score:
http://bkref.com/tiny/rZQzx
Code: Select all
2006
Heat GmSc GmSc Mavs
Wade 25.4 16.2 Nowitzki
Shaq 9.6 13.9 Terry
Walker 7.0 8.9 Howard
J Will 6.3 7.5 Stackhouse
. 6.3 Dampier
2007
Spurs GmSc GmSc Cavs
Parker 16.2 10.6 LeBron
Duncan 15.3 9.0 Gooden
Ginobili 11.6 8.5 Gibson
. 7.9 Varejao
. 6.9 Ilgauskas
2008
Celts GmSc GmSc Lakers
Allen 16.7 16.4 Kobe
Pierce 15.6 12.4 Gasol
Garnett 14.6 10.3 Odom
Rondo 9.5 8.3 Fisher
Posey 7.6 5.3 Farmar
2009
Lakers GmSc GmSc Magic
Kobe 22.8 15.6 Dwight
Gasol 17.6 12.7 Lewis
Odom 10.3 12.3 Turkoglu
Fisher 8.5 7.7 Ariza
. 6.2 Pietrus
. 5.4 Alston
2010
Lakers GmSc GmSc Celtics
Kobe 18.7 12.3 Garnett
Gasol 18.6 12.1 Rondo
Artest 6.2 11.6 Pierce
Odom 5.6 7.3 Allen
Bynum 5.6 5.6 Davis
2011
Mavs GmSc GmSc Heat
Nowitzki 16.6 22.7 Wade
Terry 13.4 13.7 LeBron
Chandler 11.0 10.9 Bosh
Marion 10.0 9.8 Chalmers
Kidd 8.0
Stevenson 5.8
2012
Heat GmSc GmSc Thunder
LeBron 23.6 20.7 Durant
Wade 16.4 18.9 Westbrook
Bosh 11.9 8.4 Harden
Battier 9.3 6.6 Ibaka
2013
Heat GmSc GmSc Spurs
LeBron 22.5 15.9 Duncan
Wade 14.9 14.2 Leonard
Bosh 12.1 11.2 Parker
Allen 7.1 10.2 Green
. 6.7 Ginobili
2014
Spurs GmSc GmSc Heat
Leonard 15.8 22.5 LeBron
Duncan 12.9 10.6 Bosh
Parker 11.6 7.9 Wade
Ginobili 10.9 6.9 Allen
Diaw 8.5 5.4 Lewis
Mills 8.2
Green 7.6
Splitter 6.4
2015
Warriors GmSc GmSc Cavs
Curry 17.9 24.6 LeBron
Iguodala 13.6 11.8 Mozgov
Green 12.1 11.2 Thompson
Thompson 11.2
Barnes 6.9
LeBron's margin over Curry is the same as last year's over Kawhi.
Wade vs Dirk in 2011 also is in that stratum.
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2015 10:29 am
by Mike G
Well, this is actually kind of fun. Game Score obviously misses some of the smaller stuff, but it might be ideal for this kind of exercise; showing who was in the games and contributing at what level.
Previous 10 years:
Code: Select all
1996
Bulls GmSc GmSc Sonics
Jordan 18.5 18.9 Kemp
Pippen 13.4 14.4 Payton
Rodman 10.2 9.9 Schrempf
Kukoc 9.6 8.6 Hawkins
Longley 8.5 6.7 Perkins
Harper 5.5
1997
Bulls GmSc GmSc Jazz
Jordan 23.4 16.8 Malone
Pippen 15.1 14.9 Stockton
Kukoc 6.3 7.2 Russell
Longley 4.9 7.1 Hornacek
Dele 4.4
1998
Bulls GmSc GmSc Jazz
Jordan 21.4 18.5 Malone
Pippen 13.0 10.0 Stockton
Kukoc 11.5 6.1 Hornacek
. 6.1 Russell
1999
Spurs GmSc GmSc Knicks
Duncan 22.6 15.4 Sprewell
Robinson 15.7 11.9 Houston
Elie 9.1 8.4 Camby
Johnson 6.6
Elliott 4.9
2000
Lakers GmSc GmSc Pacers
Shaq 30.6 17.6 Miller
Kobe 9.7 14.0 Rose
Harper 9.0 12.8 Croshere
Horry 7.7 10.7 Jackson
Rice 6.6 9.3 D Davis
Fisher 6.1 5.2 Smits
Fox 5.1 5.0 Best
2001
Lakers GmSc GmSc Sixers
Shaq 27.4 20.5 Iverson
Kobe 17.2 15.7 Mutombo
Horry 9.2 10.5 Snow
Fox 8.0 6.5 McKie
Fisher 6.4
2002
Lakers GmSc GmSc Nets
Shaq 30.1 19.0 Kidd
Kobe 20.3 13.2 Martin
Fisher 9.6 9.9 Kittles
Fox 9.4 6.3 Van Horn
2003
Spurs GmSc GmSc Nets
Duncan 24.1 13.8 Kidd
Robinson 11.9 8.7 Kittles
Parker 7.9 8.2 Jefferson
Ginobili 7.1 7.5 Martin
Claxton 5.2
2004
Pistons GmSc GmSc Lakers
Billups 17.9 18.7 Shaq
Hamilton 11.9 11.6 Kobe
BWallace 10.9
RWallace 10.3
Prince 9.2
2005
Spurs GmSc GmSc Pistons
Duncan 15.9 17.3 Billups
Ginobili 14.1 13.2 B Wallace
Horry 9.5 9.4 R Wallace
Parker 5.4 8.2 McDyess
Bowen 4.1 7.9 Prince
. 7.7 Hamilton
. 4.9 Hunter
How did the Spurs win that series? Outscored by 2 ppg with blowouts both ways -- and the Horry Game.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 90DET.html
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2015 10:46 am
by Mike G
Aggregate best Finals GmSc since 1985:
Code: Select all
GmSc Finals W/T
24.5 Jordan 6/6
23.4 Barkley 0/1
22.8 Magic (2/4)
22.6 Shaq 4/6
21.7 Bird (1/2)
21.6 Olajuwon 2/3
20.0 LeBron 2/6
19.8 Drexler 1/3
18.1 McHale (1/2)
17.9 Curry 1/1
17.8 Duncan 5/6
17.7 Wade 3/5
17.6 Isiah 2/3
17.6 Billups 1/2
17.0 Majerle 0/1
16.7 Kobe 5/7
16.4 Nowitzki 1/2
16.4 DJ 1/2
16.2 Gasol 2/3
15.4 Pippen 6/6
15.4 Worthy (2/4)
Karl Malone ranks #24 on the list, and Stockton ranks 33. I guess there's no accounting for low pace or tight defense in a game. Oh well.
Wins and Trips (w/T) are from memory, so please point out errors.