2015 playoff summaries / notes

[Mike G]

GSW 4, NOP 0

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. Warriors         mpg   e484    eW    WS   ws/48   PER
Draymond Green    41.5   1.76   .59   .70   .203   21.0
Stephen Curry     39.8   2.62   .85   .87   .263   28.0
Klay Thompson     37.8   1.48   .45   .55   .176   21.1
Harrison Barnes   31.5    .72   .18   .35   .133   14.5
Andre Iguodala    28.0    .11   .03   .11   .047    7.5
Andrew Bogut      27.8   1.11   .25   .32   .137   15.6
Shaun Livingston  15.8    .27   .03   .15   .117   12.0
Leandro Barbosa   12.3    .23   .02   .02   .015   10.8
Marreese Speights  7.0    .80   .05  -.06  -.096    6.8
Festus Ezeli       4.8    .34   .01  -.03  -.065    5.4
. totals           246   1.23  2.47  2.99   .146   17.4
                  
. Pelicans         mpg   e484    eW    WS   ws/48   PER
Anthony Davis     43.0   2.13   .74   .65   .180   28.1
Eric Gordon       35.8    .69   .20   .02   .008   14.3
Tyreke Evans      31.3    .62   .16  -.09  -.036   10.6
Quincy Pondexter  31.0    .42   .11   .16   .063   11.5
Norris Cole       26.5   -.36  -.08  -.26  -.119    3.6
Ryan Anderson     23.8    .69   .13   .15   .078   15.9
Omer Asik         19.8    .31   .05   .00   .001    9.3
Dante Cunningham  18.8    .78   .12   .30   .194   19.7
Jrue Holiday      13.8    .44   .05  -.03  -.027   13.4
Alexis Ajinca      2.5   2.45   .05   .08   .364   41.7
. totals           246    .77  1.53   .98   .048   15.1

Cle 4, Bos 0

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. Celtics         mpg   e484   eWins   WS   ws/48   PER
Avery Bradley    33.3    .17    .05   -.04  -.015    8.1
Isaiah Thomas    29.8   1.40    .35    .10   .042   17.6
Evan Turner      29.5   1.03    .25   -.05  -.020   11.0
Jae Crowder      25.0   1.22    .25    .32   .152   18.9
Marcus Smart     22.5    .62    .12    .09   .047   12.5
Tyler Zeller     22.5    .67    .13    .06   .034   12.3
Brandon Bass     21.5    .28    .05   -.04  -.020    8.9
Jared Sullinger  20.0   1.62    .27    .19   .116   21.4
Jonas Jerebko    17.0   -.24   -.03   -.10  -.069    3.2
Kelly Olynyk     13.3    .26    .03    .04   .032    9.6
Luigi Datome      3.5   -.33   -.01   -.04  -.121    -.7
Phil Pressey      1.3    .15    .00   -.06  -.532   -6.9
. totals        239.0    .73   1.45    .49   .024   12.3
                  
. Cavs            mpg   e484   eWins    WS   ws/48   PER
LeBron James     43.0   2.30    .82    .55   .154   22.4
Kyrie Irving     40.5   1.79    .60    .84   .248   21.7
Iman Shumpert    29.0    .51    .12    .50   .206   13.9
Kevin Love       26.8   1.87    .42    .48   .214   19.5
J.R. Smith       26.8    .69    .15    .26   .115   12.0
Tristan Thompson 25.5    .75    .16    .48   .227   17.1
Timofey Mozgov   24.5   1.50    .31    .36   .175   18.7
James Jones      11.5   -.36   -.03    .00   .002    1.8
Matt Dellavedova 10.8   -.15   -.01   -.03  -.037    1.1
Kendrick Perkins  1.5   -.52   -.01   -.01  -.043    6.6
. totals        239.8   1.28   2.55   3.42   .171   16.8

[Mike G]

Stars of the first round

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eW/G    per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk   e480
.212   Stephen Curry   GSW   40  .603   35.3   5.1   6.7   2.8   1.2   3.8    .0   2.62
.206   LeBron James    Cle   43  .522   25.1   7.6   6.8   1.7   1.9   4.1   1.3   2.30
.192   Blake Griffin   LAC   41  .515   20.9  11.2   7.1   2.3   1.3   2.6   1.3   2.28
.186   Anthony Davis   NOP   43  .600   27.2   9.1   1.5   2.5   1.1   2.9   2.5   2.13
.177   Jimmy Butler    Chi   42  .589   27.1   4.7   4.1   1.3   2.2   2.2    .7   2.09

.174   James Harden    Hou   36  .634   31.4   3.6   7.9   3.1   1.2   4.0    .2   2.33
.165   Marc Gasol      Mem   38  .510   21.0   8.6   5.1   2.3    .4   1.2   2.3   2.06
.157   Chris Paul      LAC   39  .624   23.4   4.1   7.6   2.9   1.9   2.3    .4   1.94
.154   Marcin Gortat   Was   31  .726   26.6  12.1   3.4   3.5    .9   2.8   2.3   2.43
.151   Kyrie Irving    Cle   41  .567   23.1   4.5   4.6   2.9    .9   1.1    .9   1.79

eW/G    per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk   e480
.149   Pau Gasol       Chi   35  .530   20.4  12.4   4.9   2.3    .5   3.0   2.5   2.14
.149   Draymond Green  GSW   42  .558   14.5  11.9   5.6   3.5   2.2   2.2   1.1   1.76
.142   Tim Duncan      SAS   36  .584   19.2  11.4   3.5   3.8   1.3   1.1   1.5   1.94
.135   Dwight Howard   Hou   33  .550   17.8  14.5   1.4   4.3   1.8   2.8   3.4   1.98
.128   Derrick Rose    Chi   37  .521   22.7   4.3   8.6   1.8   1.5   4.6    .5   1.73

.127   John Wall       Was   38  .507   17.0   4.0  11.7   1.9    .7   3.3   1.0   1.65
.121   Paul Millsap    Atl   37  .522   15.9   9.6   3.6   2.8   2.2   1.2   1.2   1.57
.114 LaMarcus Aldridge Por   42  .419   16.3   9.7   1.6   2.8    .3   1.4   2.1   1.32
.114   Klay Thompson   GSW   38  .610   25.3   3.3   2.0   2.2    .7   1.7   1.2   1.48
.112   DeMarre Carroll Atl   35  .665   21.8   7.5   3.1   3.2    .9   1.3    .2   1.54

eW/G    per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk   e480
.109   Al Horford      Atl   33  .494   16.1  11.2   4.7   2.8   1.1   2.4   1.3   1.59
.109   Monta Ellis     Dal   39  .537   21.9   3.0   4.5   3.3   1.9   3.1    .6   1.33
.108   Kawhi Leonard   SAS   36  .561   21.4   7.6   2.7   2.6   1.2   2.3    .6   1.47
.106   Brook Lopez     Brk   39  .556   18.2   8.3    .8   2.8    .6   1.0   2.0   1.30
.104   Courtney Lee    Mem   34  .761   26.3   2.8   1.6   2.4   1.3    .9    .0   1.49

.104   Kevin Love      Cle   27  .564   22.3   9.7   4.1   4.2    .3   2.1    .7   1.87
.100   Dirk Nowitzki   Dal   36  .541   19.0   9.8   2.2   3.2    .4   2.1    .4   1.33
.098   Kyle Korver     Atl   38  .620   16.3   5.7   3.1   1.0   1.6    .9   1.0   1.23
.097   Josh Smith      Hou   26  .561   23.6   8.1   5.5   4.3   1.1   4.2   1.1   1.82
.093   Bradley Beal    Was   42  .497   18.0   4.7   3.4   1.7   1.3   2.1    .6   1.10

These are not adjusted for strength of opponent.

[Mike G]

Series by series, some summary stats for comparison.

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. Hou     Min   e484   PER   WS/48       Dal     Min   e484   PER   WS/48
Ariza     183    .20    6.8   .022      Ellis    197   1.33   19.3   .093
Harden    180   2.33   27.0   .266      Nowitzki 181   1.33   17.8   .113
Howard    163   1.98   22.6   .166      Chandler 160    .84   17.3   .146
Brewer    129    .70   14.8   .092      Barea    154    .85   13.5   .040
Smith     128   1.82   21.6   .118      Aminu    150   1.16   20.3   .199
Jones     127   1.10   15.8   .108     Stoudemire 75    .52   11.1  -.010
Terry     124    .41   11.2   .090      Harris    74   -.13    5.7  -.030
Prigioni  107   -.12    5.9   .023      Jefferson 51   -.43    3.4  -.030
Capela     44   1.57   22.1   .215     Villanueva 43   1.62   24.4   .257
.                                       Rondo     37    .66   11.4   .010
.                                       Parsons   37   -.09    2.8  -.116
.                                       Felton    36    .38    7.4  -.037
                              
                              
. Mem     Min   e484   PER   WS/48       Por     Min   e484   PER   WS/48
Gasol     192   2.06   23.1   .206      Batum    209    .71   11.0   .021
Randolph  176    .65    8.2  -.044      Aldridge 208   1.32   16.5   .031
Lee       168   1.49   21.9   .267      Lillard  201   1.01   14.7   .038
Allen     150    .92   15.8   .187      McCollum 166    .86   15.9   .103
Green     126    .71    8.7  -.017      Lopez    117    .36   11.5   .111
Calathes   83    .93   12.2   .057      Leonard  106   1.41   19.5   .232
Udrih      82   1.68   22.4   .212      Afflalo   60   -.79   -5.1  -.183
Conley     79   1.89   23.3   .192      Blake     43   -.20    2.8  -.090
Carter     76    .83   16.3   .163      Crabbe    39    .63   14.9   .146
Koufos     62    .75   17.5   .226      Kaman     37    .55   11.6   .056
                              
                              
. GSW     Min   e484   PER   WS/48       NOP     Min   e484   PER   WS/48
Green     166   1.76   21.0   .204      Davis    172   2.13   28.2   .181
Curry     159   2.62   28.1   .265      Gordon   143    .69   14.4   .008
Thompson  151   1.48   21.1   .177      Evans    125    .62   10.6  -.036
Barnes    126    .72   14.5   .133     Pondexter 124    .42   11.6   .062
Iguodala  112    .11    7.5   .047      Cole     106   -.36    3.6  -.120
Bogut     111   1.11   15.6   .136      Anderson  95    .69   16.0   .078
Livingston 63    .27   12.1   .117      Asik      79    .31    9.4   .000
Barbosa    49    .23   10.9   .015     Cunningham 75    .78   19.8   .194
Speights   28    .80    6.9  -.096      Holiday   55    .44   13.4  -.027
Ezeli      19    .34    5.4  -.065      Ajinca    10   2.45   41.9   .365
                              
                              
. LAC     Min   e484   PER   WS/48       SAS     Min   e484   PER   WS/48
Griffin   288   2.28   26.0   .186      Duncan   250   1.94   24.0   .228
Paul      275   1.94   25.4   .233      Leonard  250   1.47   19.7   .141
Redick    274    .12    9.4   .034      Parker   210    .38    6.3  -.066
Jordan    252   1.23   18.2   .137      Green    204    .43   10.4   .054
Barnes    197    .40   10.8   .060      Diaw     198   1.05   16.3   .126
Crawford  181    .26    8.8  -.040      Ginobili 131   1.30   16.9   .116
Rivers     99    .13    9.4  -.005      Splitter 123    .25    6.9  -.003
Davis      85    .11    7.5  -.003     Belinelli 116   1.21   20.5   .214
Turkoglu   24   -.47    1.0  -.073      Mills    112   1.54   23.2   .261
.                                       Baynes    40   -.33    1.2  -.054
.                                       Bonner    36   -.45   -2.4  -.086
.                                       Joseph    22    .60   17.1   .123
                              
                              
. Chi     Min   e484   PER   WS/48       Mil     Min   e484   PER   WS/48
Butler    253   2.09   22.3   .270     Middleton 232    .59   12.6   .040
Rose      220   1.73   15.3   .127    Antetok'po 201    .64   10.8  -.002
Gasol     208   2.14   19.5   .213    C-Williams 191    .81   11.3  -.032
Noah      201   1.22   13.8   .182      Mayo     156    .44   10.1   .016
Dunleavy  181   1.17   14.2   .224      Henson   153    .90   17.3   .087
Gibson    130    .87   14.1   .152      Ilyasova 142    .30    7.8  -.045
Snell      99   -.15    4.0   .052      Pachulia 129   1.08   15.3   .087
Mirotic    82    .45    6.8   .051      Bayless  120    .48   12.0   .060
Brooks     70    .63    8.4   .072      Dudley   110    .78   17.0   .143
Hinrich    29   -.16    5.2   .094                  
                              
                              
. Atl     Min   e484   PER   WS/48       Brk     Min   e484   PER   WS/48
Korver    229   1.23   17.8   .188      Johnson  249    .95   14.0   .089
Millsap   221   1.57   19.4   .183      Lopez    234   1.30   20.9   .181
Carroll   210   1.54   20.8   .238    Bogdanovic 206    .14    8.1   .016
Horford   198   1.59   18.0   .125      Williams 192    .99   12.7   .039
Teague    189   1.40   16.3   .096      Young    190    .55   10.4  -.011
Schroder  112    .56    8.9  -.066      Jack     153   1.18   17.4   .089
Bazemore  106   -.07    4.7   .000      Anderson 142    .93   17.6   .145
Antic      95    .54   13.3   .182      Plumlee   49    .24   10.4   .073
Scott      66    .41   12.1   .077                  
Mack       24   1.05   18.2   .170                  
                              
                              
. Was     Min   e484   PER   WS/48       Tor     Min   e484   PER   WS/48
Beal      167   1.10   15.3   .143      DeRozan  159   1.02   15.4  -.008
Wall      152   1.65   19.9   .223      Lowry    131    .49    7.9  -.114
Porter    128    .84   15.3   .191      Johnson  112    .98   15.9   .089
Gortat    125   2.43   27.8   .318      Ross     107    .08    7.6  -.015
Pierce    114   1.57   19.6   .244     Patterson 106    .73   16.6   .126
Hilario    97    .88   11.7   .108   Valanciunas 106   1.20   17.2   .079
Gooden     82   1.32   15.7   .140      Williams 102    .57   11.4  -.044
Sessions   66    .77   12.2   .162      Vasquez  101    .15    7.8  -.008
Seraphin   33   1.48   15.9   .125     Hansbrough 48   -.21    3.4  -.039
                              
                              
. Cle     Min   e484   PER   WS/48       Bos     Min   e484   PER   WS/48
James     172   2.30   22.4   .155      Bradley  133    .17    8.1  -.016
Irving    162   1.79   21.8   .249      Thomas   119   1.40   17.6   .043
Shumpert  116    .51   14.0   .206      Turner   118   1.03   11.0  -.020
Love      107   1.87   19.5   .215      Crowder  100   1.22   19.0   .153
Smith     107    .69   12.0   .115      Smart     90    .62   12.6   .047
Thompson  102    .75   17.2   .227      Zeller    90    .67   12.3   .033
Mozgov     98   1.50   18.8   .176      Bass      86    .28    8.9  -.021
Jones      46   -.36    1.8   .001      Sullinger 80   1.62   21.5   .117
Dellavedova 43  -.15    1.2  -.038      Jerebko   68   -.24    3.2  -.071
.                                       Olynyk    53    .26    9.7   .032

Some first round correlations between MPG and other stats:

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corr   rate      corr   rate
.55    e484       .19    Reb
.48    PER        .15    TO
.42    Pts        .14    TS%
.30    Ast        .13    Blk
.30    WS/48      .03    3s
.20    Stl       -.47    PF

These are per minute rates.

[Mike G]

Now that BPM is on the board, here are playoff leaders ranked by the product of 6 summary stats.
After 2 games of round 2.

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'15 playoffs     tm   Min    PER   e480   eWins   WS   WS/48   BPM
Blake Griffin   LAC   369   25.8   2.38   1.83   1.53   .199   8.4
Jimmy Butler    Chi   332   21.8   1.83   1.27   1.62   .234   6.9
Chris Paul      LAC   275   24.5   1.94   1.10   1.32   .231   7.2
James Harden    Hou   252   25.4   2.14   1.12   1.20   .229   6.5
Stephen Curry   GSW   238   24.4   2.28   1.13   1.07   .216   7.4

Tim Duncan      SAS   250   24.0   1.94    .99   1.19   .228   7.7
Marc Gasol      Mem   261   22.5   1.97   1.07   1.10   .203   6.2
Kyrie Irving    Cle   241   22.9   1.75    .88   1.22   .242   5.4
LeBron James    Cle   248   23.8   2.45   1.26    .76   .147   7.3
DeMarre Carroll Atl   287   21.2   1.56    .93   1.40   .234   5.2

'15 playoffs     tm   Min    PER   e480   eWins   WS   WS/48   BPM
Pau Gasol       Chi   271   20.4   2.01   1.13   1.12   .199   4.3
Marcin Gortat   Was   194   22.6   1.75    .71    .97   .240   7.4
Dwight Howard   Hou   238   23.6   2.05   1.02    .90   .181   4.7
Anthony Davis   NOP   172   28.3   2.13    .74    .65   .182   5.3
Paul Millsap    Atl   298   19.5   1.56    .97   1.05   .169   5.2

Draymond Green  GSW   232   19.3   1.61    .78    .91   .189   7.3
DeAndre Jordan  LAC   311   20.2   1.47    .95   1.19   .183   3.9
Al Horford      Atl   262   20.0   1.73    .94    .81   .149   4.2
John Wall       Was   191   21.5   1.67    .66    .82   .205   3.7
Patrick Mills   SAS   112   23.2   1.54    .35    .61   .261   6.8

'15 playoffs     tm   Min    PER   e480   eWins   WS   WS/48   BPM
Kawhi Leonard   SAS   250   19.7   1.47    .76    .74   .142   3.6
Courtney Lee    Mem   236   18.1   1.05    .52    .98   .199   4.8
Brook Lopez     Brk   234   20.9   1.30    .64    .88   .181   1.9
Al-Farouq Aminu Dal   150   20.3   1.16    .36    .62   .199   8.3
Kyle Korver     Atl   307   15.6   1.03    .66    .99   .155   4.1

Iman Shumpert   Cle   186   16.9    .96    .37    .84   .218   5.5
Otto Porter     Was   193   16.8    .98    .40    .80   .198   6.1
Mike Dunleavy   Chi   249   14.0    .95    .49    .95   .184   4.5
Tony Allen      Mem   225   16.1    .79    .37    .83   .176   8.6
Derrick Rose    Chi   296   15.3   1.60    .99    .60   .097   2.0

[Mike G]

Zach Randolph's 5 GameScores vs Portland ranged from 0.4 to 11.6
In 3 games vs GS, they've been 14.7 to 17.9
[His median GmSc in the season was 13.0]

Courtney Lee had 4 games vs the Blazers in the 15-17.4 range. These rank among his 11 best games all year.
In the RS, his median was 6.5 to 7; vs GS he's about his normal self.

[Mike G]

I think there are just 10 players who are in their first-ever 2nd-round playoff series, and who have gone at least 60 minutes thru 4 games.

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Player            tm    G    MP    GmSc    e480
Austin Rivers    LAC    4   101    11.9    1.53
Terrence Jones   Hou    4    93     5.3     .43
Tristan Thompson Cle    4   143     9.6     .71
Matt Dellavedova Cle    4    87     5.2     .56
Kyrie Irving     Cle    4   157    13.0     .97

Timofey Mozgov   Cle    4   106     9.2    1.32
Mike Dunleavy    Chi    4   140     8.0     .40
Dennis Schroder  Atl    4    78    11.3    2.09
Pero Antic       Atl    4    69     2.0     .04
DeMarre Carroll  Atl    4   138    12.4     .96

There's a shortage of 'advanced stats' for ongoing or individual playoff series. One could extract them from their playoff totals if 1st round numbers were known.

[Mike G]

Leaders of the 2nd round, after 4 games by all teams.

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eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.85   LeBron James   Cle   41  .437   23.2  10.8  10.3   1.6   5.6  1.0   2.52
.73   Blake Griffin  LAC   36  .572   27.6  12.7   7.8    .5   4.6   .4   2.40
.70   Stephen Curry  GSW   39  .533   25.6   4.2   7.1   1.6   3.5   .2   2.14
.61   Derrick Rose   Chi   39  .483   24.1   5.0   6.6    .5   2.6   .4   1.87
.58   Marc Gasol     Mem   36  .521   20.7  10.6   3.6   1.8   2.1   .2   1.96

.58   DeAndre Jordan LAC   31  .598   18.3  16.6   3.5   2.1   1.6  1.7   2.21
.54   Al Horford     Atl   33  .485   17.7  11.6   6.0   1.7   2.3  2.0   1.98
.49   Bradley Beal   Was   42  .513   21.2   4.6   5.2   1.8   2.9   .2   1.39
.48   Zach Randolph  Mem   35  .583   21.9   9.5   3.2    .5   2.8   .0   1.66
.45   James Harden   Hou   35  .645   25.4   4.8   7.8   1.3   6.1   .5   1.54

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.45   Jimmy Butler   Chi   42  .497   17.4   4.4   2.5   2.8   1.1   .6   1.26
.41   Dwight Howard  Hou   33  .511   15.8  12.4   1.7   1.1   1.5  2.8   1.52
.41   Paul Millsap   Atl   32  .488   16.9   8.6   6.1   2.6   3.2   .9   1.56
.41   Jeff Teague    Atl   33  .444   16.0   5.0   8.7   1.7   2.0   .3   1.47
.34   Draymond Green GSW   35  .510   15.2   9.0   4.9   2.3   4.7   .8   1.17

.34   Paul Pierce    Was   31  .663   23.4   6.0    .9    .0    .6   .9   1.31
.34  Dennis Schroder Atl   20  .575   24.2   6.0   8.9    .4   1.3   .0   2.09
.32   Austin Rivers  LAC   26  .681   25.7   4.2   3.1   2.1   3.0   .9   1.53
.32   Kyrie Irving   Cle   40  .525   18.7   2.5   2.8   1.6   2.0   .4    .97
.31   Klay Thompson  GSW   37  .541   18.1   4.4   3.8   1.2   3.7  1.0   1.01

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.31   Chris Paul     LAC   12  .574   21.8   5.3  16.7   2.3   1.6   .0   3.00
.30   Jamal Crawford LAC   30  .481   17.5   4.8   5.0   2.6   2.8   .2   1.17
.29   Timofey Mozgov Cle   27  .528   14.0  10.2   1.9   1.0   1.5  2.5   1.32
.29   Pau Gasol      Chi   21  .551   17.7   7.8   3.5    .9   1.6  2.5   1.64
.28  Demarre Carroll Atl   35  .602   19.4   5.1   1.0   1.1   1.1   .0    .96

.28   Otto Porter    Was   34  .548   12.0   8.6   3.5   1.0    .3   .0    .98
.26   Andrew Bogut   GSW   25  .600    7.6  13.2   4.0   2.2   2.2  1.8   1.24
.23  Harrison Barnes GSW   34  .625   15.1   5.4   1.7    .5   1.4   .8    .82
.22   J.J. Redick    LAC   38  .722   21.4    .9   2.1    .5   2.1   .0    .69
.21 Tristan Thompson Cle   36  .620    9.2  10.8    .6    .0    .3  1.2    .71
.21   Mike Conley    Mem   23  .524   17.8   1.2   6.2   1.2   2.0   .0   1.07

[Mike G]

A couple of days late: leaders of the 2nd round

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eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.50  LeBron James   Cle   41  .454   24.5  10.4  10.2   1.5   4.4  1.4   2.95
1.20  Blake Griffin  LAC   38  .577   25.4  11.3   4.9    .5   3.7   .5   2.15
1.18  Stephen Curry  GSW   38  .553   28.8   5.0   8.0   2.1   3.9   .2   2.49
.98   James Harden   Hou   37  .576   24.9   5.2   8.1   1.4   5.3   .4   1.83
.90   DeAndre Jordan LAC   33  .586   15.0  14.4   1.9   2.2   1.2  2.0   1.89

.90   Dwight Howard  Hou   34  .519   16.8  14.1   1.6   1.2   1.5  2.1   1.84
.89   Marc Gasol     Mem   37  .464   18.3  11.2   3.8   1.3   1.7  1.0   1.91
.88   Al Horford     Atl   35  .526   19.7  10.0   4.6   1.1   2.0  2.5   2.03
.86   Chris Paul     LAC   24  .609   23.6   4.4  11.3   1.7   2.2   .0   2.42
.85   Bradley Beal   Was   42  .517   23.7   4.8   4.2   1.5   2.7   .6   1.62

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.80   Derrick Rose   Chi   39  .448   19.6   5.2   6.4    .8   2.3   .4   1.65
.69   Jimmy Butler   Chi   42  .514   18.6   5.2   2.1   2.0   1.2   .5   1.30
.62   Jeff Teague    Atl   33  .495   19.4   4.2   7.8   1.3   3.3   .4   1.48
.61  Demarre Carroll Atl   35  .606   20.7   6.5   1.5   1.4   1.1   .3   1.38
.59   Klay Thompson  GSW   37  .572   20.9   4.9   4.1    .8   3.3   .7   1.26

.58   Draymond Green GSW   34  .510   15.4   9.2   5.8   2.0   3.6   .7   1.37
.57   Paul Millsap   Atl   34  .468   17.2   8.5   4.5   1.6   3.7  1.1   1.34
.57   Kyrie Irving   Cle   35  .571   21.5   2.4   3.2   1.4   2.1   .7   1.30
.53   Zach Randolph  Mem   34  .551   19.4   9.3   2.4    .7   2.8   .0   1.23
.51   Trevor Ariza   Hou   39  .609   15.2   6.0   2.4   2.0   1.8   .1    .90

[Mike G]

Last night, LeBron again dragged his team to victory. Along with 18 boards, 13 Ast, and 3 Stl, he had 6 TO and needed 42 shots (TSA) to net 37 Pts.
After 13 games, his playoff rates vs his career PO avgs before:

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LeBron  PER   TS%   FTr   TRb%   Ast%   Stl%  Blk%   TO%   Usg%  WS/48   BPM
06-14   27.7  .578  .48   12.2   31.9   2.2   1.7   12.4   31.4  .242   10.4
2015    24.3  .490  .29   14.1   43.2   2.3   2.5   13.9   36.6  .168    9.3

Those are career low TS%, FTr; worst TO% and WS rate since first postseason.
Also career high Usg%, Ast%, and TReb%.

While his WS/48 takes a beating due to poor shooting and high TO, his BPM is largely unruffled -- thanks to massive Ast and Reb rates, we guess.

So missing his 2 co-stars, Love and Irving, he still has the East #1 seed on the brink of being swept.
Is he having a great postseason? or a terrible one (by his standards)?

His eWins/480 in 3 series have been 2.30 (vs Bos), 2.95 (Chi) and now 3.42 vs Atl -- all hella better than his WS rates. And getting stronger as needed.
In WS/48, the Cavs are led by Love (for 4 G), Irving, Smith, and Thompson; then LeBron, just ahead of Shumpert, James Jones, and Mozgov.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2015.html

[Mike G]

For his RS career, 70% of LeBron's Win Shares are attributed to his offense. And about 80% of his BPM is OBPM.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... sle01.html

In playoffs it's been about .68 and .72, respectively.

This postseason, his DWS are more than 50% of his total; BPM is 50/50 O/ D.

Cavs' playoff opponents' have seen sharp drops in their shooting from the RS:

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eff%   RS   vs Cle   diff
Bos   .516   .496   -.020
Chi   .528   .485   -.043
Atl   .556   .507   -.049
avg   .533   .496   

Effective shooting% = Pts/(2*fga + fta)
LeBron's shooting just .483 thru 13 games. Teammates are shooting .553

In the season, Cavs' opponents shot the league avg .535
Did losing Love make them this much better defensively?

[Mike G]

Can't seem to find it now, but a couple days ago I saw somewhere on b-r.com the Warriors given about 90% chance of winning the title.
Given their 10.0 SRS vs the 4.1 Cavs (regular season), that would indeed suggest a series expected to go 4 or 5 games.

But after 14 playoff games, we are seeing a different Cleveland team.
Here are their opponents' RS SRS, the series MOV, and the apparent SRS (opponent SRS + MOV) of the Cavs and Warriors in each series:

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Cleveland                    Golden State
opp   mov    srs    Cle      opp   mov    srs    GSW
Bos   9.2   -.40    8.8      NOP   8.0   1.13    9.1
Chi   5.5   2.54    8.0      Mem   8.0   3.62   11.6
Atl  13.3   4.75   18.1      Hou   6.8   3.82   10.6

avg   9.3   2.30   11.6      avg   7.6   2.86   10.5

(Averages not weighted by games)
The Cavs have dominated each opposing team by several more points than expected by RS SRS.
The Warriors have mostly overachieved, but not by much.

Thompson and Mozgov have dominated inside, vs bigs who were not as healthy as Bogut and Ezeli.

EDIT -- weighted by games in each series, the imputed SRS are: Cle 11.12 - 10.62 GSW
-- Cavs' advantage is < half that seen in the table above (0.5 vs 1.1)

[Mike G]

Summary of each series' team stat category; listing the series winner's advantage in each category: positive turnover differential is a good thing.

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rd  Win   Lose   Pts    Reb    TS%    TO
1   Hou   Dal    4.2   -1.4   .022   -0.2
1   Mem   Por    6.8     .4   .018    3.4
1   GSW   NOP    8.0    4.1   .013    1.3
1   LAC   SAS    -.4   -1.5   .001     .3
1   Cle   Bos    9.2    6.2   .047   -1.0
1   Was   Tor   14.0    9.5   .086   -2.5
1   Atl   Brk    5.5    1.2   .015    1.0
1   Chi   Mil   12.3    6.1   .082   -4.3

rd  Win   Lose   Pts    Reb    TS%    TO
2   Atl   Was    2.8   -1.8   .016     .3
2   Cle   Chi    5.5    2.7   .045   -1.3
2   GSW   Mem    8.0     .7   .082   -3.8
2   Hou   LAC   -3.2    3.7  -.017   -2.1

3   GSW   Hou    8.2    7.6   .028     .4
3   Cle   Atl   13.3   12.4   .036   -3.3

avg              6.7    3.6   .034   -0.9

In this sample of 14 series, point differential can be estimated by these other 3 differentials as:
Pts = Reb*0.67 + TS*152 + TO*0.95
Avg absolute error from this is 1.25, and the biggest one is Was vs Tor -- Wiz "should have" won by about 17 ppg, rather than 14, with that shooting and rebounding advantage.

[Crow]

The Cavs playoff defense is something I need to catch up on.

Every first round series loser got too little out of their guards and not even close to enough with possible exception with Spurs, but only their backups. In almost every case losing teams had 2 front line players who were alright or good. Part of this maybe the reliability of getting a good amount of defensive rebounds and more offensive rebound and putback opportunities.

So by some of Mike's other interesting stats that I am late in seeing, only half of first round winners won the boards and turnover battles. They also won ts% every time, though barely in Clips vs. Spurs, the best first round loser. In 2nd round, winner won 3 board and turnover battles. Rockets lost ts% to Clips. Boards and timing of production keyed their win. Conference finals had dominance. Hawks win of turnover battle hardly mattered against the rest.

[Mike G]

There's a minus-.63 correlation between TO and TS% (differentials)

[Crow]

One thing I haven't seen here or elsewhere is playoff ts% (or offensive rating) and usage by position, overall and winners and losers. I have a feeling there is a large gap between the ts% of guards / front line but perhaps a smaller one on offensive rating? How much of this is guard selfishness vs. the defense just makes it harder to get the ball to bigs or harder for them to actually use the possession? Are the winning teams tending to do better at this positional allocation of offense?