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Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2012 2:39 pm
by Mike G
Another surge in rookie performance (and minutes) has them heading for 67 equivalent wins.
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
7.5 Irving,Kyrie Cle 28 .562 25.7 5.0 7.3 3.5 1.1 4.6 .8 1.93
6.2 Rubio,Ricky Min 32 .523 13.3 5.2 10.5 2.6 2.6 3.7 .2 1.44
4.5 Brooks,Marshon NJN 29 .561 19.0 6.1 2.1 2.8 1.3 1.7 .3 1.20
3.3 Walker,Kemba Cha 24 .470 16.4 4.4 3.7 1.8 1.7 2.4 .3 1.00
3.1 Parsons,Chandler Hou 24 .503 12.4 9.6 2.3 3.5 1.9 1.4 .9 1.09
3.1 Leonard,Kawhi SAS 24 .519 12.2 8.3 1.3 1.7 1.8 .9 .5 .92
2.8 Shumpert,Iman NYK 32 .470 15.0 4.2 4.1 3.3 2.9 3.1 .4 .91
2.7 Leuer,Jon Mil 19 .582 15.1 7.7 1.6 3.7 .7 1.1 1.1 1.02
2.6 Thompson,Tristan Cle 18 .468 15.3 10.3 .3 4.1 .4 2.6 2.2 1.04
2.6 Morris,Markieff Phx 21 .574 14.4 8.2 1.6 4.9 1.3 2.0 .8 .88
2.4 Cole,Norris Mia 22 .477 15.9 2.9 5.5 4.2 1.9 3.5 .0 .80
2.4 Knight,Brandon Det 31 .521 14.7 4.9 3.2 3.2 1.1 3.9 .2 .56
2.3 Williams,Derrick Min 19 .481 14.3 7.6 1.5 2.5 1.2 1.8 .6 .88
2.0 Kanter,Enes Uta 14 .512 12.6 13.1 .4 3.2 .7 1.9 1.0 1.06
1.8 Vucevic,Nikola Phi 13 .560 13.2 11.4 2.4 6.4 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.26
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.8 Harrellson,Josh NYK 19 .517 10.5 8.4 .9 2.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 .70
1.6 Burks,Alec Uta 12 .481 19.0 5.4 2.1 3.1 .9 1.9 .2 1.07
1.3 Thomas,Isaiah Sac 14 .500 15.1 3.4 3.5 1.2 1.7 3.0 .4 .75
1.2 Stiemsma,Greg Bos 11 .625 8.7 9.8 1.8 7.5 .6 1.8 5.6 .97
1.2 Ayon,Gustavo NOH 11 .681 15.4 10.4 3.2 3.6 1.6 2.8 1.7 1.42
1.0 Harris,Tobias Mil 17 .538 17.5 6.7 1.5 5.2 1.2 3.2 .5 .82
0.8 Johnson,Ivan Atl 14 .500 12.8 8.8 .7 5.8 1.6 2.4 .4 .61
0.7 Biyombo,Bismack Cha 12 .471 7.7 9.4 .3 5.8 .4 2.2 3.6 .46
0.7 Thompson,Klay GSW 18 .535 13.0 3.3 2.7 5.1 .8 2.6 .3 .28
0.7 Pargo,Jeremy Mem 17 .385 10.3 3.2 5.3 2.8 .9 2.4 .0 .39
0.7 Jenkins,Charles GSW 12 .521 10.1 2.2 5.4 5.7 1.6 .8 .3 .49
Fredette can't seem to stay on the radar, and he currently ranks 33rd, with eW/484 = .14
This is at 21.4% of the season.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 5:15 pm
by Mike G
Several rookies have hit a rough patch, if not a wall: T Thompson, D Williams, M Morris ...
dropping expected eWins to 62 for the year.
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
6.8 Irving,Kyrie Cle 28 .573 25.2 4.8 6.9 3.5 1.0 4.9 .7 1.78
6.2 Rubio,Ricky Min 33 .485 12.7 5.1 10.4 2.7 2.7 3.8 .2 1.36
4.2 Brooks,Marshon NJN 30 .545 19.2 6.2 2.0 2.9 1.3 1.6 .4 1.23
3.3 Parsons,Chandler Hou 25 .488 11.8 9.2 2.6 3.5 1.9 1.2 .9 1.07
3.1 Walker,Kemba Cha 26 .454 15.6 5.0 3.3 1.7 1.4 2.8 .5 .87
3.0 Shumpert,Iman NYK 31 .444 14.1 4.5 4.7 3.6 2.8 3.3 .5 .90
2.7 Leonard,Kawhi SAS 24 .495 11.4 8.5 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.0 .5 .82
2.7 Knight,Brandon Det 32 .519 15.5 4.6 3.3 3.2 1.0 3.6 .2 .61
2.3 Williams,Derrick Min 20 .493 14.2 7.6 1.6 2.3 1.0 1.8 .5 .84
2.2 Morris,Markieff Phx 21 .543 12.9 8.4 1.6 4.8 1.1 2.2 .8 .75
2.1 Leuer,Jon Mil 17 .569 14.3 7.7 1.8 3.8 .7 1.1 1.0 .97
2.0 Vucevic,Nikola Phi 15 .535 13.6 11.3 2.0 5.0 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.31
2.0 Thompson,Tristan Cle 18 .471 14.5 9.5 .2 3.4 .5 2.5 1.8 .89
1.8 Cole,Norris Mia 21 .468 14.4 2.8 4.8 3.5 1.6 3.0 .0 .63
1.6 Kanter,Enes Uta 14 .524 11.6 11.8 .3 3.1 .6 2.0 1.1 .83
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.3 Harrellson,Josh NYK 18 .512 9.9 8.1 .8 2.3 1.4 1.4 1.0 .58
1.2 Burks,Alec Uta 12 .481 16.6 4.9 1.6 2.7 .7 1.7 .2 .74
1.1 Ayon,Gustavo NOH 10 .696 16.4 8.0 2.3 3.5 2.0 2.3 1.6 1.32
1.0 Thomas,Isaiah Sac 16 .472 12.3 3.2 4.0 1.7 1.2 2.4 .2 .49
0.9 Stiemsma,Greg Bos 9 .587 7.9 9.3 1.5 7.7 .7 1.5 4.6 .82
0.9 Johnson,Ivan Atl 14 .524 12.8 7.4 1.1 5.2 1.3 2.1 .5 .59
0.8 Biyombo,Bismack Cha 13 .455 7.3 8.9 .4 5.1 .5 1.9 3.6 .49
0.8 Singleton,Chris Was 20 .503 8.2 5.8 .9 5.0 2.4 1.0 .6 .29
0.7 Harris,Tobias Mil 13 .534 16.1 5.9 1.3 4.8 1.0 2.6 .4 .67
0.7 Fredette,Jimmer Sac 23 .479 12.3 2.0 2.9 1.8 .8 2.2 .0 .22
36 eWins from rookies in the East, 26 from the West.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:29 pm
by Mike G
Mike G wrote:Kyrie Irving's eff% is tracked in this thread first at .435, then .465, .506, .517, and now .555 .
Make that .582, after a monster outing.
Rubio, meanwhile, broke a 16-67 FG run (.269 eFG%) over 6 games, with a nice game of his own.
His FG% had dropped from .461 to .373 in that span; 3FG% from .454 to .350.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2012/
Of players with 200+ minutes and 15+ FGA/36 min., the best TS% --
Code: Select all
> 15 FGA/36 FGA FTA TSA TS%
LeBron James 18.5 9.4 22.6 .618
Mo Williams 15.1 2.4 16.2 .612
Kevin Durant 18.0 7.2 21.2 .608
Al Harrington 16.0 3.4 17.5 .603
Ryan Anderson 15.2 3.2 16.6 .592
Kyrie Irving 17.0 4.9 19.2 .591
Chris Bosh 15.3 5.6 17.8 .590
Paul Millsap 15.5 4.0 17.3 .586
Stephen Curry 15.9 1.9 16.7 .577
Andrea Bargnani 17.6 6.4 20.4 .576
Only LeBron and Durant take as many shots as Irving, and with better accuracy.
Bargnani takes more shots and is close in TS%
LaMarcus shoots a bit more, at .543. Kobe a lot more at .539
Irving has hit 81% of his FT; last year at Duke, he was 90% (8.4 FTA/36)
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 3:09 pm
by Mike G
Quick update to note that erosion of both production and minutes continues, dropping projected eWins to just 58.6 (from 67 less than 2 weeks ago).
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
7.7 Irving,Kyrie Cle 28 .590 26.9 5.1 6.6 3.4 1.1 4.6 .6 1.98
6.3 Rubio,Ricky Min 34 .490 12.6 5.1 10.1 2.5 2.4 3.4 .2 1.35
3.8 Brooks,Marshon NJN 29 .535 18.9 5.9 2.0 3.0 1.3 1.7 .4 1.18
3.5 Walker,Kemba Cha 27 .457 15.6 5.6 3.6 1.5 1.4 2.9 .6 .96
2.9 Parsons,Chandler Hou 26 .460 10.8 8.2 2.6 3.3 2.0 1.2 .8 .91
2.8 Leonard,Kawhi SAS 25 .482 11.5 8.6 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.0 .5 .84
2.7 Shumpert,Iman NYK 30 .439 13.6 4.3 4.5 3.8 2.7 3.2 .5 .82
2.5 Knight,Brandon Det 33 .495 14.6 4.6 3.4 3.1 .9 3.4 .2 .56
2.2 Leuer,Jon Mil 16 .592 15.6 7.5 1.7 3.8 .7 .9 1.2 1.07
2.0 Morris,Markieff Phx 21 .519 12.4 8.6 1.4 4.9 1.0 2.1 .7 .69
1.8 Williams,Derrick Min 19 .491 13.7 7.1 1.4 2.2 .9 1.8 .4 .71
1.7 Cole,Norris Mia 22 .463 13.6 3.0 4.7 3.2 1.5 2.8 .0 .59
1.7 Vucevic,Nikola Phi 15 .535 13.9 11.1 2.0 4.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.30
1.7 Kanter,Enes Uta 14 .508 11.4 11.8 .4 2.7 .6 1.8 1.2 .84
1.6 Thompson,Tristan Cle 18 .456 13.3 9.1 .2 3.1 .5 2.5 1.9 .75
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.2 Ayon,Gustavo NOH 11 .639 13.9 7.9 2.2 3.1 1.9 1.5 2.0 1.19
1.1 Harrellson,Josh NYK 18 .512 9.8 8.0 .8 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 .54
0.9 Thomas,Isaiah Sac 16 .500 12.7 3.0 3.7 2.0 1.1 2.3 .2 .45
0.9 Johnson,Ivan Atl 14 .524 12.9 7.1 1.2 4.8 1.4 2.2 .6 .60
0.9 Burks,Alec Uta 11 .474 15.9 4.4 1.6 2.5 .6 1.8 .1 .62
0.7 Thompson,Klay GSW 17 .554 13.3 2.9 2.3 4.7 .8 2.3 .5 .30
0.6 Fredette,Jimmer Sac 23 .482 12.5 1.9 2.8 1.8 .9 2.2 .0 .21
0.6 Harris,Tobias Mil 11 .546 16.2 5.5 1.2 4.4 1.1 2.5 .4 .65
0.6 Stiemsma,Greg Bos 9 .540 6.7 8.5 1.7 7.9 .9 1.5 4.4 .58
0.6 Biyombo,Bismack Cha 13 .458 7.0 8.5 .4 4.7 .5 1.7 3.6 .37
EDIT: OK, I mis-stated that rookie minutes have recently declined: These 25 had averaged 19.9 mpg 12 days ago, and still through last night.
The biggest reason for overall dropoff may be in their shooting%. In 12 days, Eff% has improved for just 7 of 25.
Decliners on the left, improvers on the right:
Code: Select all
delta rookies tm T-12 T-0 delta rookies tm T-12 T-0
-.085 Stiemsma,Greg Bos .625 .540 .028 Irving,Kyrie Cle .562 .590
-.055 Morris,Markieff Phx .574 .519 .024 Johnson,Ivan Atl .500 .524
-.043 Parsons,Chandler Hou .503 .460 .019 Thompson,Klay GSW .535 .554
-.042 Ayon,Gustavo NOH .681 .639 .010 Leuer,Jon Mil .582 .592
-.037 Leonard,Kawhi SAS .519 .482 .010 Williams,Derrick Min .481 .491
-.033 Rubio,Ricky Min .523 .490 .008 Harris,Tobias Mil .538 .546
-.031 Shumpert,Iman NYK .470 .439 .000 Thomas,Isaiah Sac .500 .500
-.026 Knight,Brandon Det .521 .495
-.026 Brooks,Marshon NJN .561 .535
-.025 Vucevic,Nikola Phi .560 .535
-.014 Cole,Norris Mia .477 .463
-.013 Biyombo,Bismack Cha .471 .458
-.013 Walker,Kemba Cha .470 .457
-.012 Thompson,Tristan Cle .468 .456
-.007 Burks,Alec Uta .481 .474
-.005 Harrellson,Josh NYK .517 .512
-.004 Kanter,Enes Uta .512 .508
Not weighting by minutes or shots, the avg
season Eff% has dropped from .526 to .511 in 12 days.
Eff% = Pts/(2*FGA + FTA)
Edit #2: Jimmer Fredette had dropped off the Top25 list with an Eff% somewhere south of .450, as I recall.
He'd be atop the list of improved Eff%, one of the 7 mentioned.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 5:15 am
by Crow
On non-prior informed RAPM, Rubio is estimated at +2.1, Irving -0.4, Vucevic +1.1, Leuer +1.0, Parsons +1, Leonard -1.3, Brooks -1, Markieff -0.3, Ayon +0.7, Kanter
-0.3, Shumpert -1.1. Kemba Walker -3.1 and the 4th lowest estimate of those measured. Brandon Knight and Jimmer Fredette right with him at 5th and 6th worst. A pretty different sorting. Of course it will probably move this season and in thefuture season in some /many cases but how many of these early indicators will generally stay relatively high or low? I don't recall a survey of how well rookie RAPM predicts future performance, say 3rd, 4th, 5th year or career. But such a study could be done these days with Jerry's extensive and helpful prior-informed database.
Boxscore metrics miss much of player impact on teammate offense and much of player defensive impact, especially on shot defense but on their impact on thge other team defensive factors too.
Looking at rookie NBA boxscore stats, their college record and even their visual "style" I think I can often guess how their RAPM is going to look. I am not surprised that the 3 lowest performers are low for example.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 10:53 am
by Mike G
Crow wrote:On non-prior informed RAPM,.. Kemba Walker -3.1 and the 4th lowest estimate of those measured. Brandon Knight and Jimmer Fredette right with him at 5th and 6th worst. ...
Is RAPM of -3 actually pretty good, average, or poor on a team with -15 pt-diff?
Is 27 mpg a reasonable amount for such a player to play on such a weak team?
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 8:44 pm
by Crow
RAPM of -3 per 48 minutes is exactly average on a team with -15 pt-diff overall for its 48 minutes of 5 men on the court (-3 * 5 = -15). When you are bad, you are mainly left with giving minutes and hoping for player development and good lineup development or discovery. But a top draft pick performing comparable to the average on his poor team mates is still significant, if it lasts.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 3:29 pm
by Mike G
Kemba Walker, as a rookie #9 pick, can be expected to play 17.5 mpg and be worth .68 eWins per 484 minutes; this would create 1.62 eW in 66 games.
He's averaging 28 minutes, and I register his play as worth .97 eW/484; projecting to 3.7 eW for the year.
He's now started 12 of 24 games for a team that is chasing the '93 Mavs for the distinction of Worst team ever.
http://bkref.com/tiny/2cKXB
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 3:43 pm
by Mike G
A slight bounce-back in the last week has rookies projecting to 60 total eWins, at .37 of the season.
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
7.5 Irving,Kyrie Cle 30 .574 25.6 4.6 6.2 2.9 1.0 4.0 .5 1.86
6.5 Rubio,Ricky Min 35 .500 12.6 4.7 10.0 2.5 2.4 3.3 .2 1.36
3.7 Walker,Kemba Cha 28 .455 15.4 5.3 3.6 1.5 1.4 2.6 .5 .97
3.0 Brooks,Marshon NJN 29 .535 18.5 5.9 1.9 3.0 1.3 1.7 .4 1.14
2.8 Knight,Brandon Det 32 .490 15.2 4.4 3.4 3.1 .8 3.1 .2 .63
2.8 Parsons,Chandler Hou 25 .450 10.8 7.8 2.5 3.4 2.1 1.3 1.1 .87
2.7 Leonard,Kawhi SAS 24 .495 11.6 8.0 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.0 .5 .83
2.6 Shumpert,Iman NYK 31 .429 12.1 4.6 4.9 3.8 2.4 3.2 .4 .72
2.1 Morris,Markieff Phx 21 .492 12.4 8.6 1.6 4.6 1.0 1.9 .9 .74
1.9 Leuer,Jon Mil 15 .578 14.6 7.7 1.8 3.5 .6 .9 1.3 1.01
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.7 Williams,Derrick Min 18 .490 13.7 7.0 1.2 2.0 .8 1.8 .4 .70
1.7 Vucevic,Nikola Phi 16 .538 14.3 10.2 1.7 4.1 .8 .9 1.5 1.21
1.7 Cole,Norris Mia 21 .471 13.9 3.0 4.3 3.2 1.3 2.7 .0 .58
1.5 Kanter,Enes Uta 14 .518 11.5 11.1 .3 3.0 .7 1.8 1.0 .77
1.5 Thompson,Tristan Cle 17 .453 13.3 9.0 .2 3.0 .5 2.4 1.9 .75
1.4 Ayon,Gustavo NOH 13 .587 12.4 8.9 1.5 3.4 1.8 1.4 2.2 1.07
1.3 Thomas,Isaiah Sac 17 .524 13.5 3.3 4.0 2.3 1.0 2.3 .2 .60
1.3 Johnson,Ivan Atl 16 .506 13.4 8.6 1.1 4.3 1.0 2.2 .8 .74
1.1 Allen,Lavoy Phi 16 .580 14.2 8.0 2.5 4.3 1.0 .7 .3 1.03
0.9 Harris,Tobias Mil 12 .557 17.6 5.5 .9 3.5 1.0 2.0 .5 .83
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
0.9 Harrellson,Josh NYK 18 .512 9.8 8.2 .7 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 .56
0.8 Burks,Alec Uta 11 .474 15.7 4.5 1.6 2.5 .5 1.8 .1 .60
0.8 Thompson,Klay GSW 17 .553 13.5 2.9 2.2 4.5 .9 2.0 .5 .34
0.7 Fredette,Jimmer Sac 22 .486 12.8 1.8 2.8 1.9 .8 2.2 .0 .24
0.6 Biyombo,Bismack Cha 14 .490 7.3 8.5 .4 4.9 .6 2.0 3.3 .34
0.6 Stiemsma,Greg Bos 8 .537 6.7 9.1 1.8 7.6 1.2 1.4 4.1 .64
0.6 Faried,Kenneth Den 10 .549 15.8 15.0 .6 4.9 .0 1.6 4.4 1.79
0.6 Johnson,Jajuan Bos 5 .633 22.5 6.6 .5 1.5 .5 .5 1.5 1.59
0.6 Mack,Shelvin Was 11 .497 9.9 3.8 3.9 1.6 1.1 1.4 .0 .40
0.5 Jenkins,Charles GSW 10 .506 10.0 2.4 5.3 5.3 1.5 .8 .3 .48
The list has been extended to 30, to catch some guys who have lately gotten some minutes.
Minutes are per game played -- not per team game -- as these are relevant to adjustments in the rates shown.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 3:36 pm
by Mike G
Top rookies through .503 of the season.
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
6.6 Irving,Kyrie Cle 31 .561 23.3 4.4 6.0 2.9 1.0 3.8 .7 1.72
5.8 Rubio,Ricky Min 35 .484 12.5 4.5 9.3 2.4 2.5 3.6 .2 1.23
4.1 Walker,Kemba Cha 29 .469 16.0 4.9 3.6 1.5 1.3 2.2 .4 1.03
3.1 Knight,Brandon Det 32 .507 15.7 4.5 3.7 3.1 .8 3.0 .2 .72
3.1 Brooks,Marshon NJN 30 .520 17.7 5.6 2.3 3.0 1.3 2.2 .4 1.04
2.9 Parsons,Chandler Hou 27 .469 11.6 7.4 2.6 3.1 1.7 1.5 .8 .84
2.7 Leonard,Kawhi SAS 24 .514 11.2 7.8 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.0 .6 .81
2.4 Morris,Markieff Phx 21 .478 12.9 8.2 1.5 4.5 1.3 1.5 1.2 .86
2.4 Shumpert,Iman NYK 30 .446 13.1 4.3 4.4 3.8 2.4 3.0 .3 .71
2.3 Ayon,Gustavo NOH 18 .578 12.3 10.2 1.7 3.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.19
2.1 Vucevic,Nikola Phi 17 .552 14.8 9.6 1.1 4.3 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.20
1.9 Thomas,Isaiah Sac 20 .533 14.2 3.6 4.5 2.6 .9 2.1 .2 .73
1.8 Williams,Derrick Min 18 .496 13.2 7.3 1.0 2.0 .8 1.7 .7 .71
1.7 Thompson,Tristan Cle 19 .435 11.9 9.9 .3 3.2 .6 2.1 1.9 .82
1.6 Faried,Kenneth Den 17 .584 16.0 13.6 .5 4.0 1.0 1.6 2.5 1.73
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.6 Leuer,Jon Mil 14 .547 14.0 7.0 1.6 4.1 .7 .8 1.1 .89
1.5 Kanter,Enes Uta 14 .500 10.8 11.4 .2 2.5 .7 1.8 1.0 .78
1.5 Cole,Norris Mia 21 .482 13.9 2.7 4.3 3.5 1.2 2.4 .0 .51
1.5 Allen,Lavoy Phi 18 .502 12.2 9.9 2.1 4.6 .9 .9 .9 1.00
1.2 Biyombo,Bismack Cha 17 .474 7.3 9.4 .5 4.2 .6 1.9 3.3 .56
0.9 Johnson,Ivan Atl 14 .483 11.8 8.2 1.0 4.2 1.2 2.4 .6 .54
0.7 Thompson,Klay GSW 17 .560 13.5 3.2 2.2 4.1 .9 2.0 .4 .33
0.7 Burks,Alec Uta 12 .486 14.7 4.5 1.5 3.0 .8 1.5 .1 .53
0.7 Harris,Tobias Mil 11 .547 15.8 5.6 1.0 3.0 .9 1.8 .7 .76
0.7 Harrellson,Josh NYK 18 .512 9.8 7.9 .7 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 .56
Projection is for rookies to total just over 60 eWins; East 34, West 26
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Fri Mar 09, 2012 11:52 am
by Mike G
Rookie shooting and minutes have continued to improve/increase, leading them to total some 64 projected equivalent wins for the season, which is now 59% complete.
Rubio's shooting% is still in free fall.
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.4 Irving,Kyrie Cle 31 .566 22.8 4.2 5.8 1.1 3.5 .5 1.68
5.4 Rubio,Ricky Min 34 .465 11.5 4.5 9.3 2.4 3.4 .2 1.16
4.0 Walker,Kemba Cha 29 .470 15.9 4.6 3.8 1.4 2.3 .4 1.03
2.9 Knight,Brandon Det 32 .497 15.1 4.3 3.5 .7 2.8 .1 .68
2.8 Brooks,Marshon NJN 31 .528 16.6 5.0 2.4 1.3 2.4 .4 .91
2.7 Leonard,Kawhi SAS 23 .535 11.8 7.9 1.3 2.0 1.0 .6 .88
2.7 Parsons,Chandler Hou 27 .492 11.6 6.6 2.5 1.6 1.4 .8 .77
2.4 Williams,Derrick Min 20 .517 14.8 7.8 .9 .8 1.7 .7 .91
2.3 Morris,Markieff Phx 20 .457 12.5 8.2 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.2 .85
2.3 Vucevic,Nikola Phi 18 .518 15.1 9.8 1.1 .9 1.3 1.7 1.24
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.3 Thomas,Isaiah Sac 21 .536 14.8 3.7 4.8 1.2 2.6 .2 .83
2.3 Ayon,Gustavo NOH 20 .571 12.4 9.0 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.08
2.2 Faried,Kenneth Den 19 .609 16.3 13.2 .8 1.0 1.4 2.0 1.71
2.2 Shumpert,Iman NYK 30 .454 12.6 4.1 4.3 2.4 2.8 .3 .68
2.0 Thompson,Tristan Cle 20 .429 11.5 10.2 .5 .6 1.8 1.9 .87
1.7 Kanter,Enes Uta 14 .483 11.2 11.7 .2 .8 1.7 .9 .86
1.6 Cole,Norris Mia 21 .477 14.2 2.7 4.6 1.3 2.8 .0 .57
1.4 Allen,Lavoy Phi 17 .491 11.5 9.5 1.9 .9 1.3 1.0 .89
1.3 Biyombo,Bismack Cha 17 .470 7.5 10.0 .5 .6 2.2 3.4 .61
1.3 Leuer,Jon Mil 13 .532 13.4 7.0 1.5 .7 1.0 1.0 .80
1.3 Thompson,Klay GSW 17 .559 15.3 3.7 2.1 .9 2.2 .4 .54
Minutes are per game played, not per team game. Faried has appeared in just 20 of 40 games.
Faried is the only rookie ranking above Irving in eWins/484 min -- 1.71 to 1.68
In PER, it's Faried by 23.1 to 21.3; and in WS/48 the same order, .237 to .146 -- with Vucevic, Leonard, and Ayon in between.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Sat Mar 10, 2012 1:21 am
by Crow
Kevin Pelton's per game projections for Rubio were reasonably accurate as was his projected 2 pt FG%. Rubio is actually better than he projected from 3 pt land but he is moderately worse than projected on TS%, perhaps because the 3pt FGA / total FGA is different than projected or the FT rate is different and certainly the FT% is clearly a lot lower.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2012 8:38 pm
by Mike G
With the season .705 finished, rookies project to total 65 eWins.
Despite earlier rosy figures, it seems just a handful will end up >1.00 eW/484 min.
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
6.8 Irving,Kyrie Cle 31 .563 22.9 4.6 6.2 2.8 1.2 3.6 .5 1.76
4.5 Rubio,Ricky Min 34 .466 11.3 4.5 9.2 2.5 2.3 3.4 .2 1.12
3.7 Walker,Kemba Cha 27 .463 15.3 4.6 4.0 1.4 1.3 2.3 .4 .99
3.1 Parsons,Chandler Hou 28 .515 12.2 6.8 2.9 2.9 1.5 1.5 .7 .87
2.9 Knight,Brandon Det 32 .497 14.6 4.0 3.8 2.8 .8 2.8 .1 .66
2.8 Leonard,Kawhi SAS 24 .559 11.9 7.7 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.0 .5 .88
2.7 Thomas,Isaiah Sac 22 .562 15.4 3.7 4.8 2.4 1.2 2.6 .2 .91
2.7 Brooks,Marshon NJN 30 .505 15.8 4.7 2.8 2.6 1.2 2.4 .4 .84
2.7 Williams,Derrick Min 21 .517 14.3 8.1 1.1 2.1 .8 1.7 .7 .93
2.6 Faried,Kenneth Den 20 .606 16.4 13.2 .9 4.1 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.67
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
2.3 Ayon,Gustavo NOH 21 .572 11.9 8.3 1.9 3.6 1.8 1.6 1.4 .97
2.1 Shumpert,Iman NYK 28 .454 12.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 2.3 2.5 .3 .64
2.0 Morris,Markieff Phx 19 .454 12.2 8.0 1.6 4.9 1.3 1.8 1.2 .79
2.0 Thompson,Tristan Cle 21 .448 11.5 9.6 .6 3.1 .6 1.9 1.7 .80
2.0 Vucevic,Nikola Phi 17 .489 13.7 9.5 1.1 4.4 .8 1.4 1.5 1.08
2.0 Thompson,Klay GSW 20 .537 16.5 3.4 2.5 3.6 .9 2.0 .4 .72
1.6 Biyombo,Bismack Cha 19 .454 7.5 10.2 .5 3.9 .7 1.9 3.1 .66
1.6 Kanter,Enes Uta 14 .491 11.1 11.6 .3 2.9 .7 1.7 .8 .84
1.3 Cole,Norris Mia 20 .469 13.2 2.7 4.3 3.6 1.2 2.7 .0 .47
1.2 Allen,Lavoy Phi 16 .495 11.1 9.3 1.7 4.0 .8 1.2 1.0 .84
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.1 Leuer,Jon Mil 12 .534 13.1 6.8 1.6 3.7 .7 1.0 1.0 .80
1.0 Johnson,Ivan Atl 14 .500 12.4 8.1 1.2 4.4 1.5 2.5 .6 .66
1.0 Burks,Alec Uta 14 .497 14.8 4.5 1.6 2.8 .8 1.9 .2 .57
0.8 Harrellson,Josh NYK 16 .524 10.2 8.8 .7 2.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 .72
0.8 Stiemsma,Greg Bos 11 .470 6.5 8.3 1.4 6.2 1.4 1.7 3.9 .63
Rubio currently has 3.25 eWins, and that is apparently where he will actually end up.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Sat Mar 24, 2012 11:43 pm
by Crow
Which rookies do you think will get traded in the next 15 months? Who do you think are realistic trade opportunities and players you would offer sufficient exchange to actually get? Who do you think should be most active to try to get them given their system and needs?
Who would you be willing to sell or be motivated to sell and isn't entirely obvious a candidate for that?
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Sun Apr 01, 2012 10:35 pm
by Crow
I'd trade Kemba Walker is some GM was infatuated with the PG scorer thing and wouldn't need a huge return because Kemba is probably not going to provide a good return. On RAPM he is near the bottom. Take advantage of the boxscore - RAPM disparity, if you can, while you can.
I might trade Leonard too but it is a different case. WinShares likes him a lot. RAPM is lukewarm on him for non-prior informed. If someone made a great offer, I'd listen. Current starting lineup with him is performing very poorly in short trial so far. Probably not going anywhere though.
New York seems to really be invested in Shumpert. I think he was a bad pick for them and they should trade him if they got a decent offer.
Tristian Thompson really sucks on RAPM, for the Cavs. Like Hickson before him. And Eyenga. How long does it last for Thompson? And what does it say about their selection process and coaching usage of players? Does it mainly just say that the team sucks or is there more to it than that?
Does Biyombo improve greatly over his last place finish on non-prior informed RAPM? He probably will improve some but it is a big hill to climb to ok. much less lottery picked expected good. Sorry Rich.
Even if folks can't produce a good NCAA or foreign league RAPM or predict NBA RAPM directly from it, it probably would be worth trying to correlate and translate lower-level boxscore stats into APM predictions. Even if you can't predict for individual players there are probably some rough or more likely trends (by position and role) to glean with a little effort.