2011-12 Rookies

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:33 pm

Extra-early look -- 3 or 4 games per team, or 5% of the short season -- the rookies off to the fastest starts:

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.8   Irving,Kyrie    Cle   27   .435   19.6   5.8   8.1   1.8   3.2   .4   1.88
4.7   Brooks,Marshon  NJN   22   .565   25.1   4.8   1.6    .8   1.6   .7   1.61
4.4   Pargo,Jeremy    Mem   25   .531   16.8   3.6   7.1   1.9   3.3   .0   1.29
3.9   Rubio,Ricky     Min   28   .706    9.8   5.7   8.6   1.7   3.3   .0   1.02
3.6   Walker,Kemba    Cha   19   .446   17.6   5.4   5.4   1.2   2.3   .0   1.37

3.1   Knight,Brandon  Det   24   .609   20.9   2.8   2.4   1.4   3.8   .0    .95
3.0   Leuer,Jon       Mil   14   .692   15.6   9.6   1.7   3.1    .8  1.4   1.53
2.6   Cole,Norris     Mia   25   .478   15.3   3.4   3.3   2.1   2.8   .0    .77
2.4   Leonard,Kawhi   SAS   20   .348   10.0  11.3    .6   1.7    .6   .0    .90
2.3  Thompson,Tristan Cle   20   .619   16.1   6.7    .6    .6   2.9  2.1    .85

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.2   Kanter,Enes     Uta   17   .351    8.3  15.2    .0    .0    .0   .6    .97
2.2  Parsons,Chandler Hou   17   .581   17.7  11.7    .9   1.0   2.0   .0   1.41
1.6   Morris,Markieff Phx   18   .727   11.7   7.0   1.8   1.3   1.9  1.1    .68
1.6  Williams,Derrick Min   21   .500   13.7   7.9   1.0   1.1   4.3   .0    .54
1.5   Burks,Alec      Uta    8   .600   29.1   2.1   3.4   4.0   2.0   .0   2.07

1.3   Selby,Josh      Mem   18   .462   11.8   2.1   8.5    .0   2.8   .0    .81
0.9   Thomas,Isaiah   Sac    9   .458   13.6   3.9   3.3    .0    .0   .0    .78
0.9   Shumpert,Iman   NYK   22   .355   17.5   7.2   1.3    .0   3.1   .0    .87
0.9   Fredette,Jimmer Sac   25   .508   14.0   1.5   3.3    .0   3.7   .0    .25
0.7   Vucevic,Nikola  Phi   15   .429    7.1   9.1   2.4   2.3   2.3   .0    .52

Rookies projecting to 54 eWins; just over half are from PG's.
I always miss some and include some who aren't rookies, so suggestions are appreciated.

EvanZ · Post by **EvanZ** » Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:12 pm

For rookies having >100 poss, according to ezPM:

Code: Select all

NAME	TEAM	EZPM100
 Kawhi Leonard	SAS	5.06
 Ricky Rubio	MIN	4.54
 Marshon Brooks	NJN	3.27
 Kemba Walker	CHA	2.82
 Jeremy Pargo	MEM	-0.15
 Chris Singleton	WAS	-1.72
 Brandon Knight	DET	-2.57
 Derrick Williams	MIN	-3.49
 Tristan Thompson	CLE	-3.51
 Kyrie Irving	CLE	-3.61
 Jimmer Fredette	SAC	-4.80
 Norris Cole	MIA	-6.31

Pure offense (O100):

Code: Select all

NAME	TEAM	O100
 Ricky Rubio	MIN	4.87
 Marshon Brooks	NJN	3.03
 Jeremy Pargo	MEM	1.25
 Brandon Knight	DET	-0.80
 Chris Singleton	WAS	-0.81
 Kyrie Irving	CLE	-1.09
 Kemba Walker	CHA	-1.12
 Jimmer Fredette	SAC	-2.82
 Tristan Thompson	CLE	-3.42
 Norris Cole	MIA	-3.68
 Derrick Williams	MIN	-6.58
 Kawhi Leonard	SAS	-6.69

Pure defense (D100):

Code: Select all

NAME	TEAM	D100
 Kawhi Leonard	SAS	5.74
 Chris Singleton	WAS	5.02
 Tristan Thompson	CLE	2.97
 Kemba Walker	CHA	2.63
 Derrick Williams	MIN	2.39
 Jimmer Fredette	SAC	0.19
 Marshon Brooks	NJN	-0.13
 Norris Cole	MIA	-0.91
 Ricky Rubio	MIN	-1.01
 Brandon Knight	DET	-1.44
 Jeremy Pargo	MEM	-2.08
 Kyrie Irving	CLE	-2.70

Pure rebounding (REB100):

Code: Select all

NAME	TEAM	REB100
 Kawhi Leonard	SAS	6.01
 Kemba Walker	CHA	1.31
 Derrick Williams	MIN	0.69
 Ricky Rubio	MIN	0.68
 Jeremy Pargo	MEM	0.67
 Marshon Brooks	NJN	0.37
 Kyrie Irving	CLE	0.18
 Brandon Knight	DET	-0.33
 Norris Cole	MIA	-1.72
 Jimmer Fredette	SAC	-2.17
 Tristan Thompson	CLE	-3.06
 Chris Singleton	WAS	-5.94

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:16 pm

Rubio has (some combination of these): picked his shots better, or is hot, or lucky so far, or has been underrated / guarded poorly.

Brooks strong on offense, Leonard on defense and rebounding.

Leuer, Thompson, Chandler and Burks also have pretty good early overall boscore numbers.

Leonard , Brooks, Rubio, Pargo and Walker are estimated as having a positive impact on 2 of the 3 parts of EZPM (O, D and R) but only a couple of other rookies do so on any part of it.

Still the rookie class will probably end up rating fairly high on boxscore stats compared to other rookie classes.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:17 pm

Kyrie Irving ranks on top of my list, with 1.88 eW/484 min.
But I'm not getting much correlation with wins and shooting% -- his is .435 .
When I jack up the exponent and the standard Eff% to normal levels, his Sco rating drops from 19.6 to 17.8, and his e484 to 1.72 .

With this, he's still the best looking rook, a shade better than Marshon Brooks.
He'll probably shoot better, and/or he'll shoot less. The rest of the team is .096 better.

Odd: Irving's total Reb% (8.7) is better than Jamison's, 13th among all guards >50 min. But well behind both Sessions and Gibson (#2 and 3 in the league).
http://bkref.com/tiny/8xEOq
Cavs are a below-avg rebounding team.

EvanZ · Post by **EvanZ** » Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:06 pm

I finally figured out how to embed a Google Spreadsheet on my blog. Here I will update rookie ratings continuously:

http://thecity2.com/roy-watch/

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:05 pm

With the season .066 finished, rookies are projecting to 57 total eWins.

Code: Select all

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.7   Irving,Kyrie   Cle   27   .465   19.5   6.0   7.5   2.7   1.3   3.7   .9   1.83
5.0   Rubio,Ricky    Min   28   .704   13.4   5.2   9.4   3.2   1.3   3.8   .0   1.33
4.2   Cole,Norris    Mia   24   .531   17.9   3.1   5.7   3.4   2.6   2.9   .0   1.28
3.7   Brooks,Marshon NJN   20   .535   21.6   5.5   1.5   2.8    .7   1.4   .6   1.40
3.6   Walker,Kemba   Cha   21   .479   17.9   5.0   4.3   1.7   1.2   2.1   .0   1.30

3.3 Thompson,Tristan Cle   19   .603   17.7   8.4    .5   4.0    .4   2.2  2.9   1.26
3.2   Leuer,Jon      Mil   14   .692   16.2   9.6   1.6   3.1   3.1    .8  1.4   1.62
3.0  Morris,Markieff Phx   17   .756   17.4   8.4   1.8   5.8   1.0   1.9  1.4   1.27
3.0   Knight,Brandon Det   24   .565   18.9   3.3   3.6   3.2   1.1   4.0   .0    .92
2.5   Leonard,Kawhi  SAS   19   .404   10.7  11.5    .5   1.8   1.8    .9   .4    .98

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.2   Kanter,Enes    Uta   16   .426    9.5  12.8    .4   3.7   1.1    .0  1.0   1.01
2.1   Pargo,Jeremy   Mem   26   .422   13.0   3.2   4.6   3.5   1.4   3.1   .0    .60
2.0 Williams,Derrick Min   20   .484   13.0   9.1    .9   2.5   2.1   3.4   .0    .74
1.7 Parsons,Chandler Hou   17   .581   18.6  11.6    .9   3.9   1.0   2.0   .0   1.48
1.4  Vucevic,Nikola  Phi   12   .611   11.2   8.8   3.9   4.5   2.7   1.8   .8   1.14

1.3   Burks,Alec     Uta    6   .655   31.8   1.7   2.7   3.3   3.3   3.3   .0   2.07
1.0  Harrellson,Josh NYK   17   .447    8.5   9.6    .6   2.5    .5   2.0   .9    .44
1.0   Thomas,Isaiah  Sac    8   .474   14.5   3.9   3.0   1.6    .8    .8   .8    .91
0.9  Fredette,Jimmer Sac   24   .454   12.3   1.4   3.8   2.0    .6   2.8   .0    .28
0.8   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos   16   .571    5.7   8.3   1.3   6.9    .7   1.4  6.5    .64

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:04 am

Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson are #1 and 2 in PER for the Cavs, 1st and 4th in WS/48.
Jon Leuer leads the Bucks in ws/48 by a wide margin, is strong 2nd in PER; getting just 13 mpg.
Marshon Brooks leads the Nets in both, by wide margins.
Markieff Morris leads the Suns in PER, narrowly over another non-starter (Hakim Warrick), and in ws/48 by a lot.
Isaiah Thomas, going just 9 mpg, is way ahead of other Kings in both metrics.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 11:49 am

Last year, 4 rookies ended up with eW/484 above 1.10 -- Griffin, Cousins, Wall, and Monroe.
These same 4 were those who wound up with 5+ eWins. Equivalent to 4+ eW in this short season.
Nobody else was above .81 e484 or 4.3 eW (Landry Fields on both counts).

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9
After 10-12 games per team last year, there were 5 rookies over 1.00 e/484, and soon just 3. Monroe had a late surge. A couple more low-minute guys popped in briefly.

In another thread, I mentioned that only draft picks 1 thru 3 are expected to hit 1.00 (NBA average) as rookies; and last year there were two #1's rookie-ing.
This year, the top 8 in eWins are also above 1.20 eW/484; and another 7 are over .90
Still very early.

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:33 pm

This early, one good or bad game can shift things quite a bit. A number of rookies have hit rough spots, such that the whole crop projects to about 53 eWins on the year (down from 57).

Code: Select all

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.5   Irving,Kyrie   Cle   26   .506   22.7   5.7   7.9   3.4   1.0   3.1  1.1   2.10
4.2   Rubio,Ricky    Min   28   .622   12.5   4.8   8.8   2.7   1.2   3.7   .2   1.12
4.0   Brooks,Marshon NJN   23   .527   20.9   5.3    .9   2.5   1.2   1.2   .4   1.25
3.5   Cole,Norris    Mia   23   .523   18.0   2.7   5.7   2.9   2.3   3.6   .0   1.14
3.1 Thompson,Tristan Cle   19   .481   15.8   8.9    .6   4.0    .3   1.7  2.6   1.17

2.9  Morris,Markieff Phx   20   .662   15.5   8.6   1.8   5.3    .6   1.1   .8   1.07
2.5   Walker,Kemba   Cha   19   .444   15.0   4.3   4.5   1.2   1.2   2.1   .0    .98
2.1   Leonard,Kawhi  SAS   17   .408   10.3  10.4   1.0   1.6   2.0    .7   .3    .93
2.0   Kanter,Enes    Uta   15   .468   10.6  12.2    .6   2.5    .7    .7  1.0   1.01
1.9   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos   16   .647   10.1  10.7   1.7   6.7    .4   1.3  5.0   1.19

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.9   Leuer,Jon      Mil   13   .591   14.1   7.4    .9   3.9   1.9    .5  1.3   1.04
1.9   Knight,Brandon Det   23   .513   16.0   2.8   3.4   2.4   1.0   3.6   .0    .59
1.7   Pargo,Jeremy   Mem   23   .435   12.7   3.4   4.6   3.1   1.0   2.9   .0    .56
1.6 Williams,Derrick Min   18   .551   13.8   7.7    .9   3.3   1.5   2.7   .0    .65
1.5   Shumpert,Iman  NYK   26   .547   19.2   6.4   2.7   2.6   1.3   2.6   .6   1.30

1.5   Burks,Alec     Uta   12   .559   19.4   3.4   3.9   2.2   1.1   2.7   .5   1.16
1.3   Thomas,Isaiah  Sac   12   .468   13.8   4.9   2.7    .8   1.9   2.7   .7    .82
1.3 Parsons,Chandler Hou   15   .569   15.2  11.5    .9   3.7    .5   3.2   .0    .96
1.1  Fredette,Jimmer Sac   25   .456   12.4   2.1   3.1   1.7    .8   2.3   .0    .32
1.0   Vucevic,Nikola Phi   12   .611   10.9   8.8   3.8   4.4   2.7   1.8   .8   1.07
0.9   Harris,Terrel  Mia    6   .778   27.0   9.3   3.8   1.7   3.4   3.4   .0   2.43

Effective shooting % = Pts/(2*FGA+FTA) have gravitated toward the normal range.
Miami's Harris has played entirely in garbage time. Still, nice numbers.

mystic · Post by **mystic** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:11 pm

Using all players in their first season according to b-r.com.

Code: Select all

       Name         Team Q  SPM    W48    W484
Ricky Rubio        MIN    1  3.43   0.212   2.14
Kyrie Irving       CLE    1  3.29   0.207   2.09
Jon Leuer          MIL    1  2.02   0.170   1.71
Iman Shumpert      NYK    1  2.01   0.166   1.67
Alec Burks         UTA    1  1.87   0.162   1.64
Norris Cole        MIA    1  1.62   0.154   1.55
Markieff Morris    PHO    1  1.45   0.149   1.50
Kawhi Leonard      SAS    1  0.75   0.125   1.26
Enes Kanter        UTA    1  0.70   0.123   1.24
Isaiah Thomas      SAC    1  0.54   0.117   1.18
Chandler Parsons   HOU    1  0.49   0.116   1.17
Derrick Williams   MIN    1  0.49   0.116   1.17
Tristan Thompson   CLE    1 -0.18   0.093   0.94
Kemba Walker       CHA    1 -0.59   0.080   0.80
Greg Stiemsma      BOS    1 -0.77   0.073   0.74
Marshon Brooks     NJN    1 -1.03   0.065   0.65
Brandon Knight     DET    1 -1.48   0.050   0.50
Josh Selby         MEM    1 -2.87   0.003   0.03
Jeremy Pargo       MEM    1 -3.30  -0.010  -0.10
Jimmer Fredette    SAC    1 -3.47  -0.015  -0.15
Josh Harrellson    NYK    1 -4.61  -0.053  -0.53
Bismack Biyombo    CHA    1 -5.82  -0.086  -0.87
Klay Thompson      GSW    1 -6.35  -0.105  -1.06
Chris Singleton    WAS    1 -7.17  -0.129  -1.30
Terrel Harris      MIA    0 12.89   0.448   4.51
Jimmy Butler       CHI    0 12.57   0.448   4.52
Tyler Honeycutt    SAC    0 10.56   0.402   4.06
Travis Leslie      LAC    0  5.33   0.266   2.68
Kenneth Faried     DEN    0  5.26   0.273   2.76
Nolan Smith        POR    0  3.41   0.212   2.14
Mickell Gladness   MIA    0  2.36   0.179   1.80
Mychel Thompson    CLE    0  2.32   0.177   1.79
Jordan Williams    NJN    0  2.18   0.172   1.74
Nikola Vucevic     PHI    0  2.17   0.172   1.74
Ivan Johnson       ATL    0  1.65   0.155   1.56
Cardell Johnson    NOH    0 -1.93   0.035   0.35
Trey Thompkins     LAC    0 -2.14   0.030   0.31
Vernon Macklin     DET    0 -2.49   0.016   0.16
Cory Higgins       CHA    0 -3.79  -0.025  -0.25
Chris Wright       GSW    0 -4.03  -0.035  -0.35
JaJuan Johnson     BOS    0 -4.16  -0.038  -0.38
Reggie Jackson     OKC    0 -4.17  -0.036  -0.36
Charles Jenkins    GSW    0 -4.22  -0.040  -0.41
Andrew Goudelock   LAL    0 -4.39  -0.041  -0.41
Cory Joseph        SAS    0 -4.39  -0.046  -0.47
Jerome Jordan      NYK    0 -4.54  -0.048  -0.48
Dennis Horner      NJN    0 -4.59  -0.051  -0.51
Shelvin Mack       WAS    0 -5.21  -0.071  -0.71
E'Twaun Moore      BOS    0 -6.80  -0.116  -1.17
Elliot Williams    POR    0 -7.08  -0.120  -1.21
Justin Harper      ORL    0 -7.65  -0.140  -1.41
Jeremy Tyler       GSW    0 -8.24  -0.155  -1.57
Marcus Morris      HOU    0 -8.47  -0.152  -1.53
Gustavo Ayon       NOH    0 -9.54  -0.191  -1.93
Lance Thomas       NOH    0-11.46  -0.233  -2.35

I can convert the SPM via league average ORtg/DRtg to wins per minute, per 48 minute or whatever minute value is desirable. To make it comparable to your, Mike G, e484 value, I included a wins per 484 minutes.

With 12 qualified rookies being above average, the current rookie class is performing pretty well.

For comparison the rookie class in 2010-11:

Code: Select all

       Name         Team Q  SPM    W48    W484
Blake Griffin      LAC    1  4.41   0.236   2.38
John Wall          WAS    1  0.74   0.123   1.24
Tiago Splitter     SAS    1  0.54   0.117   1.18
DeMarcus Cousins   SAC    1  0.51   0.116   1.17
Jeremy Evans       UTA    1  0.28   0.108   1.09
Tyler Hansbrough   IND    1 -0.04   0.098   0.98
Greg Monroe        DET    1 -0.10   0.096   0.97
Gary Neal          SAS    1 -0.39   0.087   0.87
Patrick Patterson  HOU    1 -0.49   0.083   0.84
Landry Fields      NYK    1 -0.59   0.080   0.81
Paul George        IND    1 -0.89   0.070   0.71
Evan Turner        PHI    1 -1.22   0.059   0.60
Gary Forbes        DEN    1 -1.34   0.056   0.57
Ben Uzoh           NJN    1 -1.45   0.052   0.53
Greivis Vasquez    MEM    1 -1.47   0.052   0.53
Omer Asik          CHI    1 -1.55   0.049   0.49
Jordan Crawford    TOT    1 -1.56   0.049   0.49
Ed Davis           TOR    1 -1.57   0.049   0.49
Trevor Booker      WAS    1 -1.87   0.039   0.39
Eric Bledsoe       LAC    1 -1.94   0.036   0.37
Damion James       NJN    1 -2.33   0.024   0.24
Derrick Favors     TOT    1 -2.38   0.022   0.23
Eugene Jeter       SAC    1 -2.46   0.020   0.20
Al-Farouq Aminu    LAC    1 -2.51   0.018   0.18
Larry Sanders      MIL    1 -2.70   0.010   0.10
Ishmael Smith      TOT    1 -2.77   0.011   0.11
Gordon Hayward     UTA    1 -2.78   0.010   0.10
Manny Harris       CLE    1 -2.91   0.006   0.06
Semih Erden        TOT    1 -2.92   0.004   0.04
Lazar Hayward      MIN    1 -2.94   0.005   0.05
Timofey Mozgov     TOT    1 -3.25  -0.003  -0.03
Wesley Johnson     MIN    1 -3.37  -0.009  -0.09
Samardo Samuels    CLE    1 -3.49  -0.012  -0.12
Quincy Pondexter   NOH    1 -3.66  -0.019  -0.19
Nikola Pekovic     MIN    1 -4.08  -0.030  -0.30
Xavier Henry       MEM    1 -4.29  -0.038  -0.38
Christian Eyenga   CLE    1 -4.37  -0.039  -0.40
Ekpe Udoh          GSW    1 -4.89  -0.055  -0.55
Kevin Seraphin     WAS    1 -6.10  -0.090  -0.91
Devin Ebanks       LAL    0  1.76   0.156   1.57
Pape Sy            ATL    0  0.72   0.122   1.24
Dominique Jones    DAL    0 -0.31   0.089   0.90
Armon Johnson      POR    0 -1.34   0.056   0.57
Jeremy Lin         GSW    0 -1.70   0.044   0.45
Zabian Dowdell     PHO    0 -1.88   0.040   0.40
Chris Johnson      TOT    0 -2.11   0.030   0.31
Lance Stephenson   IND    0 -2.16   0.029   0.29
Patrick Ewing      NOH    0 -2.23   0.027   0.27
Willie Warren      LAC    0 -2.59   0.016   0.16
Garret Siler       PHO    0 -2.75   0.013   0.13
Jeff Adrien        GSW    0 -2.81   0.010   0.10
James Anderson     SAS    0 -2.85   0.008   0.08
Derrick Caracter   LAL    0 -3.00   0.003   0.03
Marcus Cousin      UTA    0 -3.06   0.002   0.02
Andy Rautins       NYK    0 -3.22  -0.002  -0.02
Larry Owens        TOT    0 -3.31  -0.007  -0.07
Luke Babbitt       POR    0 -3.36  -0.009  -0.09
Mustafa Shakur     WAS    0 -3.67  -0.018  -0.18
Avery Bradley      BOS    0 -4.05  -0.032  -0.32
Sherron Collins    CHA    0 -4.19  -0.035  -0.35
Cole Aldrich       OKC    0 -5.09  -0.063  -0.63
Dexter Pittman     MIA    0 -5.93  -0.085  -0.85
Solomon Alabi      TOR    0 -6.19  -0.089  -0.90
Craig Brackins     PHI    0 -6.40  -0.100  -1.01
Hamady Ndiaye      WAS    0 -7.99  -0.141  -1.42
Gani Lawal         PHO    0-17.41  -0.296  -2.98
Hassan Whiteside   SAC    0-26.79  -0.371  -3.75

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:17 pm

mystic, when you add all the "wins" from these rates, do teams sum close to their pythagorean wins?

I see your metric likes Leuer a lot more than Stiemsma at this point (1.71 to .74 w/484).
PER and WS/48 both have them pretty close (edge to Leuer), as do I (edge Stiemsma)
http://bkref.com/tiny/ILvYi

PER likes Irving by a lot over Rubio, and WS/48 favors Rubio (not by a lot).
You tend toward WS on this one, and I agree more with PER.
http://bkref.com/tiny/dTaH0
20 pts/36 vs 12, and they look about equal otherwise.

mystic · Post by **mystic** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:39 pm

The rates are adjusted for strength of schedule. If we adjust the pythogorean wins in a similar fashion, they should be about as equal as it gets. The rating is based upon a regression on the scoring margin. If I sum up all SPM for the regular season I get pretty much the SRS of a team.

EvanZ · Post by **EvanZ** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:46 pm

Mystic, is USG in your formula? If so, how is it weighted? I have Irving way down on my list, but he would obviously move up if USG was accounted for (which it's not in ezPM).

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:50 pm

mystic wrote:The rates are adjusted for strength of schedule. ..

Aha and OK. The Wolves' schedule has been some 13 ppg tougher than the Cavs', and the Bucks' about 8 ppg harder than the Celts'.
I haven't accounted for that.

I do try to account for a player's % of opponents who are starters and reserves; and I estimate the % of his points that are unassisted.
Irving has gone against 82% starters, by my formula, while Rubio has had just 52%.
Irving's rates are bumped up about 5%, and Rubio's are knocked down about the same amount.

They're similar in unassisted scoring, guessing 63-65%.
For this, they get just about a 2% boost in their scoring rates.

mystic · Post by **mystic** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:59 pm

Mike G wrote: I see your metric likes Leuer a lot more than Stiemsma at this point (1.71 to .74 w/484).
PER and WS/48 both have them pretty close (edge to Leuer), as do I (edge Stiemsma)
http://bkref.com/tiny/ILvYi

PER likes Irving by a lot over Rubio, and WS/48 favors Rubio (not by a lot).
You tend toward WS on this one, and I agree more with PER.
http://bkref.com/tiny/dTaH0
20 pts/36 vs 12, and they look about equal otherwise.

As I said before, the rating is adjusted for the strength of schedule. That adjustment is made under the assumption that it is easier to accumulate stats against weaker opponents. The Bucks played so far a much tougher schedule than the Celtics for example. The Timberwolves a tougher schedule than the Cavs. Even if players have the exact same boxscore stats, they will likely differ in SPM due to the adjustment for the strength of schedule.

Evan, USG is bascially included via points created. I calculate a value I call OFEF, which are the created points per 100 offensive possessions. Irving has 32.98 right now and is listed 10th in the league so far. That value is multiplied by EF%, which is just the combination of TS% and To-R. Irving has 0.461 and is listed 143th in the league. The combined value goes into the formula as offensive value, for Irving it is 15.21, 25th in the league (32.98*0.461 ~ 15.21). The leader in offensive value right now is Manu Ginobili with 24.78. The highest value for a whole season since 1985 has LeBron James in 2010 with 23.26. He has also the 2nd highest with 22.99 in 2009. After that Chris Paul in 2009 with 22.58 and Dwyane Wade in 2009 with 22.38. Followed by Michael Jordan with 21.95 in 1990.

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