First RPM estimates:
D Fox in last place. Josh Jackson in bottom 10. D Rose 6th lowest. H Barnes 11th lowest. D Wade 21st lowest.
38 over plus 2 (where "stars" should be). B Simmons, plus 1. Aldridge, barely positive.
Surprise negatives: Gobert, J Butler, Wall. D Waiters too but not that surprising. Wiggins, -1.6. D Booker up to neutral. Oubre still slightly below. Crowder, -1 in his new context. Also negative A Bradley and Amir Johnson.
In bottom third- Ingram, Saric, Ball, DeRozan, D. Smith, G Hill, D Russell, T Thompson.
Westbrook at about half on last season's estimate. LeBron down even more. Giannis still fine but down modestly and in 12th place. Horford way up from last season. Cousins 2nd to Harden.
2017-18 quick observations
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
Conley, negative raw on court plus minus, very modest RPM. Very expensive for that.
Blake Griffin barely positive raw on court plus minus. M Gasol negative. Both with star rather than true superstar RPM estimates.
Z Randolph and his well below average efg% and ts% playing more than Labissiere cuz that is the way to make the playoffs this season, right?
Forbes & Paul fitting in well with Spurs. For cheap.
Thornwell, not a strong start: but it is still early.
Winslow still clearly below average on overall metrics.
Blake Griffin barely positive raw on court plus minus. M Gasol negative. Both with star rather than true superstar RPM estimates.
Z Randolph and his well below average efg% and ts% playing more than Labissiere cuz that is the way to make the playoffs this season, right?
Forbes & Paul fitting in well with Spurs. For cheap.
Thornwell, not a strong start: but it is still early.
Winslow still clearly below average on overall metrics.
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
$23 million dollar man Redick, close to average on the easiest to find overall metrics.
Not the time to answer but eventually Sixers will have to decide whether to bring him back, at what price and for how many years.
Not the time to answer but eventually Sixers will have to decide whether to bring him back, at what price and for how many years.
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
Hawks over Kings by 46. Talent, coaching, management, analytics... what does Sac change?
Play bigger for rebounds or smaller for more 3 point shots? Older to up floor IQ or younger to get more development time? What will analytics staff recommend? What will coaching & management pick?
Fox-Hield-Jackson-Cauley Stein-Labissiere has played less than 5 minutes for season, if at all.The quads of these guys that have played have been (at least) mostly terrible.
2nd worst offense, 4th worst defense, probably least Morey ball team in league (near bottom in all 3 categories). Completely fail.
Play bigger for rebounds or smaller for more 3 point shots? Older to up floor IQ or younger to get more development time? What will analytics staff recommend? What will coaching & management pick?
Fox-Hield-Jackson-Cauley Stein-Labissiere has played less than 5 minutes for season, if at all.The quads of these guys that have played have been (at least) mostly terrible.
2nd worst offense, 4th worst defense, probably least Morey ball team in league (near bottom in all 3 categories). Completely fail.
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
For players shooting 10 plus fgas per game for season, Smart & Ball have one of the 10 worst efg% of the last 50 years right now. Probably improves, but wow.
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
That is impressive.
And if you ignore players with one or 2 games at that rate, they rank 2nd and 3rd worst, after only Kendall Gill at age 32.
http://bkref.com/tiny/O1Awi
Justise Winslow from last year makes #5 on that list for his 18 games; this year he's bounced back by .080
Kevin Love 2013 ranks 14th; he went just 18 G as well, and he's OK now.
(Gill never hit .500 eFG% for a season.)
Now reverse the order, and 7 of the top 11 are in the current season. Porter, Covington, and Horford -- joining Artis Gilmore'82 -- are hitting above .650; Klay Thompson, Aaron Gordon, LeBron, and Durant also over .615, for 15 games or less.
And if you ignore players with one or 2 games at that rate, they rank 2nd and 3rd worst, after only Kendall Gill at age 32.
http://bkref.com/tiny/O1Awi
Justise Winslow from last year makes #5 on that list for his 18 games; this year he's bounced back by .080
Kevin Love 2013 ranks 14th; he went just 18 G as well, and he's OK now.
(Gill never hit .500 eFG% for a season.)
Now reverse the order, and 7 of the top 11 are in the current season. Porter, Covington, and Horford -- joining Artis Gilmore'82 -- are hitting above .650; Klay Thompson, Aaron Gordon, LeBron, and Durant also over .615, for 15 games or less.
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
Yeah I saw the low game guys then forgot to remove them. Last minute, late night post. But it still made the point. League average efg% is over 50% higher than what these 2 guys are shooting.
Nuggets talking about moves they didn't do. Questionable practice, questionable decisions. They still sit with very questionable PGs. Murray & Mudiay replacement value on WS/48 and BPM. Murray -1 on RPM, Mudiay -3. I wonder what they think the future will be. Probably brighter than the evidence so far or what I guess.
Meh offense, meh defense, meh Moreyball level. Meh Milsap results, looking like a huge long-term overpay. That doesn't seem good enough to me to feel justified in not doing change. They need big change to go anywhere significant.
ESPN and BRef estimate 30some% chance of missing playoffs. I'd say at least 40%, maybe 50% or more.
Outside 3 guys, I'd be very open to exploring trades on everybody else.
More on Milsap: worst ts% of career, same for d reb rate, almost OR rate, WS/48 and BPM. Lowest assist rate and steal rates in long time. 2nd lowest ft rate. Still some D value. But basically big production losses due to too much overlap in skills / role with Jokic. Good player, not that good a value. Probably will get worse, just question of how much, how fast. Very fast start on the decline. Hard to imagine much worse with him.
Nuggets talking about moves they didn't do. Questionable practice, questionable decisions. They still sit with very questionable PGs. Murray & Mudiay replacement value on WS/48 and BPM. Murray -1 on RPM, Mudiay -3. I wonder what they think the future will be. Probably brighter than the evidence so far or what I guess.
Meh offense, meh defense, meh Moreyball level. Meh Milsap results, looking like a huge long-term overpay. That doesn't seem good enough to me to feel justified in not doing change. They need big change to go anywhere significant.
ESPN and BRef estimate 30some% chance of missing playoffs. I'd say at least 40%, maybe 50% or more.
Outside 3 guys, I'd be very open to exploring trades on everybody else.
More on Milsap: worst ts% of career, same for d reb rate, almost OR rate, WS/48 and BPM. Lowest assist rate and steal rates in long time. 2nd lowest ft rate. Still some D value. But basically big production losses due to too much overlap in skills / role with Jokic. Good player, not that good a value. Probably will get worse, just question of how much, how fast. Very fast start on the decline. Hard to imagine much worse with him.
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
I support Ph.D. data scientists, large analytic staffs, cutting edge research, etc. but when you have some or all of that and have meh or terrible shot distribution, glaring factor issues, terrible vet values, way too much hope invested in over hyped youth and / or clunky lineup design & results I have to wonder about focus, influence & capacity to use.
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
Here's pure RAPM for 2017-18 so far:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true
LeBron is 4th in ORAPM and 435th (3rd worst) in DRAPM.
I'll update it periodically throughout the season, probably once every few weeks.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true
LeBron is 4th in ORAPM and 435th (3rd worst) in DRAPM.
I'll update it periodically throughout the season, probably once every few weeks.
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
Thanks. Lots of layers to study / compare. I want to compare with RPM, other things, (not that it makes much difference). Wonder how much insiders do, care.
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
TWolves "up" to 4th worst defensive efficiency. Cavs still last.
If you use +4 on SRS as a cutoff for contenders or potential contenders, there are currently 7. In that group Celtics have the weakest offense. Raptors the weakest defense. Warriors the toughest schedule to date, Thunder the easiest.
East still holds inter-division lead.
RPM estimates over plus 2 down to just 29. Last season, at end of season, there were 54. Could be sample size related. 8 of the 29 are PGs, 3 SGs, 6 SFs, 7 PFs and 5 Cs.
If you use +4 on SRS as a cutoff for contenders or potential contenders, there are currently 7. In that group Celtics have the weakest offense. Raptors the weakest defense. Warriors the toughest schedule to date, Thunder the easiest.
East still holds inter-division lead.
RPM estimates over plus 2 down to just 29. Last season, at end of season, there were 54. Could be sample size related. 8 of the 29 are PGs, 3 SGs, 6 SFs, 7 PFs and 5 Cs.
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
Points per shot and expected points per shot based on shooter career average at shot location so far this season.
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
Would you have ability to do this for last season at same point and end of season and guesstimate how much the numbers will regress vs. sustain themselves because of changes in efficiency of players & teams on both sides of ball? Will the explanation of the variance be near half n half or lean strongly one way or another?
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
At the time I had collected the data (173 games into the season) the correlation for previous years is:
Defense:
expectedPPS Correlation:
0.661172059134
actualPPS Correlation:
0.662636548591
diff Correlation:
0.616285796997
Below is the link to the points per shot data
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yFv079 ... sp=sharing
Offense:
expectedPPS Correlation:
0.906240887351
actualPPS Correlation:
0.756370439223
diff Corr:
0.478861209479
data
https://drive.google.com/file/d/176wSCG ... sp=sharing
Defense:
expectedPPS Correlation:
0.661172059134
actualPPS Correlation:
0.662636548591
diff Correlation:
0.616285796997
Below is the link to the points per shot data
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yFv079 ... sp=sharing
Offense:
expectedPPS Correlation:
0.906240887351
actualPPS Correlation:
0.756370439223
diff Corr:
0.478861209479
data
https://drive.google.com/file/d/176wSCG ... sp=sharing
Re: 2017-18 quick observations
Clippers: Fire Doc or ride on? How far? Make trade(s)?