2017-18 quick observations

[sideshowbob]

Sure, no problem. It's not that it's a huge effort to calculate it more often, but the numbers are not going to change a lot on a daily basis, so I figured every couple weeks should be sufficient.

I agree. Even once a month, I think would be reasonable.

[Crow]

Defining bench play isn't clearcut but by a simple measure the Cavs & Wizards have two of the worst. TWolves may be worst. Orlando in the group too.

[Crow]

Some have asked Lillard or McCollum in the long-run? Some say McCollum. They aren't using RPM. Lillard with a big lead on that last season and this even somewhat bigger lead this season.

[Crow]

26 players averaging 20 plus points per game this season. Worst by far in group on Winshares per 48 minutes, D Russell with only Schroeder and Booker in sight. On BPM, Russell is better at bottom third with the other two still at absolute bottom. On PER, all are still in bottom 20% but some bigger names take the 3 lowest marks. On RPM, all three escape the very bottom, with Booker at a decent -0.6 and the other two still bottom third.

2/3rds of teams have a 20 plus point scorer. A few have multiple, including the Warriors with 3. The best teams without one are the Pistons and Nuggets.

Westbrook with the clearcut lowest efg% and ts% in group at below 45% and 50% respectively. The 3 young guards first mentioned were pretty low on efg% for group but near league average; Russell and Booker were in mix at very bottom on ts%.

Will Brooklyn, Atlanta or Phoenix win a playoff series anytime soon with these guys as the #1 scorer? Seems pretty unlikely? Ever? That is a long time. They'll need to get more efficient and / or get lots more help.

The playoff future of Westbrook? Could go almost anywhere from strong to really not.

[Crow]

Checking back on guys with 10 plus fgas per game (and a minimum of games), Ball is now least efficient on ts% in history amongst qualifiers. 3rd lowest on efg%, 6th lowest on overall offensive rating. Winslow just slightly better on these. Kris Dunn slips right behind Ball on Offensive Rating.

[Rd11490]

Cumulative difference in expected points per 100 shots and actual points per 100 shots by game
https://imgur.com/a/ApX0r

Cumulative expected points per 100 shots by game
https://imgur.com/a/N1iwi

Cumulative points per 100 shots by game
https://imgur.com/a/Il1aB

[Crow]

Danny Ainge: "…we have adjusted plus-minuses that are much more complex that we put a lot more stock into ..."

Yay, a public acknowledgement.

[shadow]

Vanilla RAPM (zero prior) update through games played on 12/6:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

[Crow]

Heard Winslow comment recently and it is all about shooting. Coach Spo talked and it was mostly about shooting.

I might be wrong, haven't dug deep on him, but the stats in mid year 3 all make him look like a meh sub who doesn't do anything well but defensive rebound and should probably get less minutes and even less shots.

I'd push hard to trade him. Yeah it won't be for much but he isn't much either.

[shadow]

Winslow currently at 432 out of 455 in ORAPM. Yikes.

[Crow]

Spotlight on Luke Walton? Bound to happen but I saw no mention of 28th rated offense or really weak 3 point game (23rd on makes and dead last on 3pt fg%). Getting the ball inside a lot is something but comes with 3rd highest TO%. Defensive efg% is the only factor level strength. 2nd lowest 3pt fg%. How much is luck vs. performance? Is that available at player level?

Ball is mostly horrible on overall metrics because of his historic shooting / scoring inefficiency but also because of high TO%. Ingram is up to around "bad" on boxscore metrics and still fairly near bottom for SFs on RPM. Boxscore stats up a bit in last 10 games but team results while on the court down considerably. Kuzma, Clarkson, Randle and Lopez are average but that won't get you very far. Nance is probably the best performer but he is just a role player.

[Crow]

By RPM Juan Hernangomez is a touch better than last season, while Willie is modestly worse. Both below mean RPM but probably around the median. That's ok for backups but will either ever be more than that? Willy is a good rebounder, ok scorer but with really high TO%. Juan is much less of a rebounder, ok scorer but with a really low TO%. They might be better on another team. Willy seems like the one with a more clear cut skill / role and better potential.

[Crow]

Long-term, big contract for Ibaka. Dips below neutral on RPM estimate this season. Recovers? Possibly, temporarily; but probably not and especially in long run.

Chriss and Bender still horrible on overal RPM.

Labissiere really weak on RPM (-2.9, 3rd lowest for PFs). Under used and misused and / or not delivering?

Kings overall for season, near absolute bottom on offense, Moreyball, defense. But I guess they have played better in last 10 games, aided by strong 3pt fg%, better passing & rebounding. What comes next?

Markannen, really hideous shooting. Dunn, shooting well, even better but not passing much and team performance with him on court sliding from bad to even worse.

Simmons, doing well overall, but A/TO has dipped to 1.9 to 1.

D Fox's A/TO is not much over 1.1.

[Crow]

There are 6 current playoffs seeded teams with efg% in bottom half. Spurs probably win first round. Sketchy for the other 5, though one or two others might overcome this weakness.

The Thunder are 27th. It would be dramatic if they overcome it. Westbrook's efg% is the 5th worst of 139 guys taking 20 plus fgas per game since 1980. Only Iverson, Kobe and Wizards version Jordan were less efficient chuckers.

[Mike G]

Yeah the thunders are shooting .494, which would have been average just a few years ago.
They're also getting out-shot, their opponents hitting at .516, which is actually below avg in this season's hot shooting climate.
And yet their MOV is over +2, and it's a very short list of such teams who win while being outshot by even .010 in eFG%.
In this century, just 3 previously; showing advantages in 4 Factors:

Code: Select all

yr   tm     eFG%   TO%  ORb%  FT/FGA
18   OKC   -.022   3.1   4.1   -.015
14   Min   -.032   2.6   1.8    .072
12   Mem   -.012   2.7   2.5   -.016
03   Phl   -.022   2.5   3.0    .020

http://bkref.com/tiny/30iXa

In spite of Westbrook's shooting, the team shoots .029 better when he's on court, and the ORtg is 10.0 better
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... 18/on-off/