VORP and the Hall of Fame

Mike G · Post by **Mike G** » Thu Sep 18, 2025 7:45 pm

I went thru the top 100 Win Shares careers and found none that started before the late '70s who were not already in the Hall. In other words, none before the BPM/VORP era. So did the same with VORP and found a total of 54 players, active or retired, not in the Hall; and in the top 100 of one list or the other.

Looking up the b-r.com Hall of Fame Probabilities, I got a much higher correlation with the VORP totals than with Win Shares: Over 60% vs just 30%.
I also found no improvement in correlation by weighting toward the playoff portion of VORP. So these are just RS+PO VORP:

Code: Select all

VORP    player     hof%     RS     PO
193.3   LeBron     1.00   156.6   36.7
110.8   Paul       1.00    98.9   11.9
102.7   Durant     1.00    87.6   15.1
97.1    Harden     1.00    84.3   12.9
87.8    Curry      1.00    74.7   13.1

84.8    Jokic      .996    73.3   11.6
70.4    Giannis    .996    62.4    8.0
65.5    Westbrook  .999    58.4    7.2
63.1    Kawhi      .913    49.9   13.2
60.1    Butler     .730    50.5    9.5

VORP     11-20     hof%     RS     PO
59.2    A Davis    .999    54.2    5.1
58.6    Lillard    .995    54.5    4.1
53.4    Horford    .238    44.2    9.2
51.5    Marion     .756    47.6    3.9
50.4    George     .979    44.1    6.2

48.9    T Porter   .053    43.3    5.5
48.8    Irving     .975    43.7    5.1
48.2    Hornacek   .006    42.1    6.2
47.7    Lowry      .857    43.3    4.3
47.4    Iguodala   .127    41.3    6.1

VORP     21-30     hof%     RS     PO
46.7    Nance      .048    43.5    3.2
46.0    E Jones    .035    42.3    3.6
44.9   'Sheed      .075    38.3    6.6
44.9    Conley     .008    40.7    4.2
43.9    Doncic     .447    38.2    5.7

43.6    Kirilenko  .004    41.7    2.0
42.3    K Johnson  .190    37.3    5.1
42.0    M Jackson  .006    37.5    4.5
42.0    Blaylock   .060    39.2    2.8
41.6    M Gasol    .042    36.5    5.1

VORP     31-40     hof%     RS     PO
41.1    Terry      .005    37.4    3.7
39.9    Ho Grant   .152    33.0    6.9
39.0    D Harper   .001    35.7    3.2
38.9    Brand      .063    37.3    1.6
38.5    K Love     .735    36.3    2.1

38.2   Strickland  .002    36.6    1.6
37.2  Gus Williams .113    31.8    5.4
37.1    Tatum      .596    29.4    7.7
36.8    Ba Davis   .023    33.1    3.8
36.7    Towns      .480    35.4    1.3

VORP     41-50     hof%     RS     PO
36.6    Gobert     .272    34.1    2.5
36.3    H Hawkins  .006    32.6    3.7
36.3    Horry      .034    26.4    9.9
36.2    Draymond   .768    27.6    8.5
36.2    Griffin    .548    32.8    3.3

35.7    Aldridge   .509    33.4    2.3
34.6    Schrempf   .033    32.4    2.2
33.3    Perkins    .000    29.1    4.3
32.7    Laimbeer   .261    29.3    3.5
30.6    DeRozan    .483    29.4    1.2

2699    totals             2377    321

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... eer_c.html
Players 51-54 were far off the VORP pace, having made the list on nice WS totals: Buck Williams, AC Green, Otis Thorpe, and Tyson Chandler -- none with more than 1% HOF chance.