VORP and the Hall of Fame
Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2025 7:45 pm
I went thru the top 100 Win Shares careers and found none that started before the late '70s who were not already in the Hall. In other words, none before the BPM/VORP era. So did the same with VORP and found a total of 54 players, active or retired, not in the Hall; and in the top 100 of one list or the other.
Looking up the b-r.com Hall of Fame Probabilities, I got a much higher correlation with the VORP totals than with Win Shares: Over 60% vs just 30%.
I also found no improvement in correlation by weighting toward the playoff portion of VORP. So these are just RS+PO VORP:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... eer_c.html
Players 51-54 were far off the VORP pace, having made the list on nice WS totals: Buck Williams, AC Green, Otis Thorpe, and Tyson Chandler -- none with more than 1% HOF chance.
Looking up the b-r.com Hall of Fame Probabilities, I got a much higher correlation with the VORP totals than with Win Shares: Over 60% vs just 30%.
I also found no improvement in correlation by weighting toward the playoff portion of VORP. So these are just RS+PO VORP:
Code: Select all
VORP player hof% RS PO
193.3 LeBron 1.00 156.6 36.7
110.8 Paul 1.00 98.9 11.9
102.7 Durant 1.00 87.6 15.1
97.1 Harden 1.00 84.3 12.9
87.8 Curry 1.00 74.7 13.1
84.8 Jokic .996 73.3 11.6
70.4 Giannis .996 62.4 8.0
65.5 Westbrook .999 58.4 7.2
63.1 Kawhi .913 49.9 13.2
60.1 Butler .730 50.5 9.5
VORP 11-20 hof% RS PO
59.2 A Davis .999 54.2 5.1
58.6 Lillard .995 54.5 4.1
53.4 Horford .238 44.2 9.2
51.5 Marion .756 47.6 3.9
50.4 George .979 44.1 6.2
48.9 T Porter .053 43.3 5.5
48.8 Irving .975 43.7 5.1
48.2 Hornacek .006 42.1 6.2
47.7 Lowry .857 43.3 4.3
47.4 Iguodala .127 41.3 6.1
VORP 21-30 hof% RS PO
46.7 Nance .048 43.5 3.2
46.0 E Jones .035 42.3 3.6
44.9 'Sheed .075 38.3 6.6
44.9 Conley .008 40.7 4.2
43.9 Doncic .447 38.2 5.7
43.6 Kirilenko .004 41.7 2.0
42.3 K Johnson .190 37.3 5.1
42.0 M Jackson .006 37.5 4.5
42.0 Blaylock .060 39.2 2.8
41.6 M Gasol .042 36.5 5.1
VORP 31-40 hof% RS PO
41.1 Terry .005 37.4 3.7
39.9 Ho Grant .152 33.0 6.9
39.0 D Harper .001 35.7 3.2
38.9 Brand .063 37.3 1.6
38.5 K Love .735 36.3 2.1
38.2 Strickland .002 36.6 1.6
37.2 Gus Williams .113 31.8 5.4
37.1 Tatum .596 29.4 7.7
36.8 Ba Davis .023 33.1 3.8
36.7 Towns .480 35.4 1.3
VORP 41-50 hof% RS PO
36.6 Gobert .272 34.1 2.5
36.3 H Hawkins .006 32.6 3.7
36.3 Horry .034 26.4 9.9
36.2 Draymond .768 27.6 8.5
36.2 Griffin .548 32.8 3.3
35.7 Aldridge .509 33.4 2.3
34.6 Schrempf .033 32.4 2.2
33.3 Perkins .000 29.1 4.3
32.7 Laimbeer .261 29.3 3.5
30.6 DeRozan .483 29.4 1.2
2699 totals 2377 321
Players 51-54 were far off the VORP pace, having made the list on nice WS totals: Buck Williams, AC Green, Otis Thorpe, and Tyson Chandler -- none with more than 1% HOF chance.