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2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:33 pm
by Mike G
Extra-early look -- 3 or 4 games per team, or 5% of the short season -- the rookies off to the fastest starts:
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.8 Irving,Kyrie Cle 27 .435 19.6 5.8 8.1 1.8 3.2 .4 1.88
4.7 Brooks,Marshon NJN 22 .565 25.1 4.8 1.6 .8 1.6 .7 1.61
4.4 Pargo,Jeremy Mem 25 .531 16.8 3.6 7.1 1.9 3.3 .0 1.29
3.9 Rubio,Ricky Min 28 .706 9.8 5.7 8.6 1.7 3.3 .0 1.02
3.6 Walker,Kemba Cha 19 .446 17.6 5.4 5.4 1.2 2.3 .0 1.37
3.1 Knight,Brandon Det 24 .609 20.9 2.8 2.4 1.4 3.8 .0 .95
3.0 Leuer,Jon Mil 14 .692 15.6 9.6 1.7 3.1 .8 1.4 1.53
2.6 Cole,Norris Mia 25 .478 15.3 3.4 3.3 2.1 2.8 .0 .77
2.4 Leonard,Kawhi SAS 20 .348 10.0 11.3 .6 1.7 .6 .0 .90
2.3 Thompson,Tristan Cle 20 .619 16.1 6.7 .6 .6 2.9 2.1 .85
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.2 Kanter,Enes Uta 17 .351 8.3 15.2 .0 .0 .0 .6 .97
2.2 Parsons,Chandler Hou 17 .581 17.7 11.7 .9 1.0 2.0 .0 1.41
1.6 Morris,Markieff Phx 18 .727 11.7 7.0 1.8 1.3 1.9 1.1 .68
1.6 Williams,Derrick Min 21 .500 13.7 7.9 1.0 1.1 4.3 .0 .54
1.5 Burks,Alec Uta 8 .600 29.1 2.1 3.4 4.0 2.0 .0 2.07
1.3 Selby,Josh Mem 18 .462 11.8 2.1 8.5 .0 2.8 .0 .81
0.9 Thomas,Isaiah Sac 9 .458 13.6 3.9 3.3 .0 .0 .0 .78
0.9 Shumpert,Iman NYK 22 .355 17.5 7.2 1.3 .0 3.1 .0 .87
0.9 Fredette,Jimmer Sac 25 .508 14.0 1.5 3.3 .0 3.7 .0 .25
0.7 Vucevic,Nikola Phi 15 .429 7.1 9.1 2.4 2.3 2.3 .0 .52
Rookies projecting to 54 eWins; just over half are from PG's.
I always miss some and include some who aren't rookies, so suggestions are appreciated.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:12 pm
by EvanZ
For rookies having >100 poss, according to ezPM:
Code: Select all
NAME TEAM EZPM100
Kawhi Leonard SAS 5.06
Ricky Rubio MIN 4.54
Marshon Brooks NJN 3.27
Kemba Walker CHA 2.82
Jeremy Pargo MEM -0.15
Chris Singleton WAS -1.72
Brandon Knight DET -2.57
Derrick Williams MIN -3.49
Tristan Thompson CLE -3.51
Kyrie Irving CLE -3.61
Jimmer Fredette SAC -4.80
Norris Cole MIA -6.31
Pure offense (O100):
Code: Select all
NAME TEAM O100
Ricky Rubio MIN 4.87
Marshon Brooks NJN 3.03
Jeremy Pargo MEM 1.25
Brandon Knight DET -0.80
Chris Singleton WAS -0.81
Kyrie Irving CLE -1.09
Kemba Walker CHA -1.12
Jimmer Fredette SAC -2.82
Tristan Thompson CLE -3.42
Norris Cole MIA -3.68
Derrick Williams MIN -6.58
Kawhi Leonard SAS -6.69
Pure defense (D100):
Code: Select all
NAME TEAM D100
Kawhi Leonard SAS 5.74
Chris Singleton WAS 5.02
Tristan Thompson CLE 2.97
Kemba Walker CHA 2.63
Derrick Williams MIN 2.39
Jimmer Fredette SAC 0.19
Marshon Brooks NJN -0.13
Norris Cole MIA -0.91
Ricky Rubio MIN -1.01
Brandon Knight DET -1.44
Jeremy Pargo MEM -2.08
Kyrie Irving CLE -2.70
Pure rebounding (REB100):
Code: Select all
NAME TEAM REB100
Kawhi Leonard SAS 6.01
Kemba Walker CHA 1.31
Derrick Williams MIN 0.69
Ricky Rubio MIN 0.68
Jeremy Pargo MEM 0.67
Marshon Brooks NJN 0.37
Kyrie Irving CLE 0.18
Brandon Knight DET -0.33
Norris Cole MIA -1.72
Jimmer Fredette SAC -2.17
Tristan Thompson CLE -3.06
Chris Singleton WAS -5.94
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:16 pm
by Crow
Rubio has (some combination of these): picked his shots better, or is hot, or lucky so far, or has been underrated / guarded poorly.
Brooks strong on offense, Leonard on defense and rebounding.
Leuer, Thompson, Chandler and Burks also have pretty good early overall boscore numbers.
Leonard , Brooks, Rubio, Pargo and Walker are estimated as having a positive impact on 2 of the 3 parts of EZPM (O, D and R) but only a couple of other rookies do so on any part of it.
Still the rookie class will probably end up rating fairly high on boxscore stats compared to other rookie classes.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:17 pm
by Mike G
Kyrie Irving ranks on top of my list, with 1.88 eW/484 min.
But I'm not getting much correlation with wins and shooting% -- his is .435 .
When I jack up the exponent and the standard Eff% to normal levels, his Sco rating drops from 19.6 to 17.8, and his e484 to 1.72 .
With this, he's still the best looking rook, a shade better than Marshon Brooks.
He'll probably shoot better, and/or he'll shoot less. The rest of the team is .096 better.
Odd: Irving's total Reb% (8.7) is better than Jamison's, 13th among all guards >50 min. But well behind both Sessions and Gibson (#2 and 3 in the league).
http://bkref.com/tiny/8xEOq
Cavs are a below-avg rebounding team.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:06 pm
by EvanZ
I finally figured out how to embed a Google Spreadsheet on my blog. Here I will update rookie ratings continuously:
http://thecity2.com/roy-watch/
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:05 pm
by Mike G
With the season .066 finished, rookies are projecting to 57 total eWins.
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
6.7 Irving,Kyrie Cle 27 .465 19.5 6.0 7.5 2.7 1.3 3.7 .9 1.83
5.0 Rubio,Ricky Min 28 .704 13.4 5.2 9.4 3.2 1.3 3.8 .0 1.33
4.2 Cole,Norris Mia 24 .531 17.9 3.1 5.7 3.4 2.6 2.9 .0 1.28
3.7 Brooks,Marshon NJN 20 .535 21.6 5.5 1.5 2.8 .7 1.4 .6 1.40
3.6 Walker,Kemba Cha 21 .479 17.9 5.0 4.3 1.7 1.2 2.1 .0 1.30
3.3 Thompson,Tristan Cle 19 .603 17.7 8.4 .5 4.0 .4 2.2 2.9 1.26
3.2 Leuer,Jon Mil 14 .692 16.2 9.6 1.6 3.1 3.1 .8 1.4 1.62
3.0 Morris,Markieff Phx 17 .756 17.4 8.4 1.8 5.8 1.0 1.9 1.4 1.27
3.0 Knight,Brandon Det 24 .565 18.9 3.3 3.6 3.2 1.1 4.0 .0 .92
2.5 Leonard,Kawhi SAS 19 .404 10.7 11.5 .5 1.8 1.8 .9 .4 .98
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
2.2 Kanter,Enes Uta 16 .426 9.5 12.8 .4 3.7 1.1 .0 1.0 1.01
2.1 Pargo,Jeremy Mem 26 .422 13.0 3.2 4.6 3.5 1.4 3.1 .0 .60
2.0 Williams,Derrick Min 20 .484 13.0 9.1 .9 2.5 2.1 3.4 .0 .74
1.7 Parsons,Chandler Hou 17 .581 18.6 11.6 .9 3.9 1.0 2.0 .0 1.48
1.4 Vucevic,Nikola Phi 12 .611 11.2 8.8 3.9 4.5 2.7 1.8 .8 1.14
1.3 Burks,Alec Uta 6 .655 31.8 1.7 2.7 3.3 3.3 3.3 .0 2.07
1.0 Harrellson,Josh NYK 17 .447 8.5 9.6 .6 2.5 .5 2.0 .9 .44
1.0 Thomas,Isaiah Sac 8 .474 14.5 3.9 3.0 1.6 .8 .8 .8 .91
0.9 Fredette,Jimmer Sac 24 .454 12.3 1.4 3.8 2.0 .6 2.8 .0 .28
0.8 Stiemsma,Greg Bos 16 .571 5.7 8.3 1.3 6.9 .7 1.4 6.5 .64
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:04 am
by Mike G
Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson are #1 and 2 in PER for the Cavs, 1st and 4th in WS/48.
Jon Leuer leads the Bucks in ws/48 by a wide margin, is strong 2nd in PER; getting just 13 mpg.
Marshon Brooks leads the Nets in both, by wide margins.
Markieff Morris leads the Suns in PER, narrowly over another non-starter (Hakim Warrick), and in ws/48 by a lot.
Isaiah Thomas, going just 9 mpg, is way ahead of other Kings in both metrics.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 11:49 am
by Mike G
Last year, 4 rookies ended up with eW/484 above 1.10 -- Griffin, Cousins, Wall, and Monroe.
These same 4 were those who wound up with 5+ eWins. Equivalent to 4+ eW in this short season.
Nobody else was above .81 e484 or 4.3 eW (Landry Fields on both counts).
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9
After 10-12 games per team last year, there were 5 rookies over 1.00 e/484, and soon just 3. Monroe had a late surge. A couple more low-minute guys popped in briefly.
In another thread, I mentioned that only draft picks 1 thru 3 are expected to hit 1.00 (NBA average) as rookies; and last year there were two #1's rookie-ing.
This year, the top
8 in eWins are also above 1.20 eW/484; and another 7 are over .90
Still very early.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:33 pm
by Mike G
This early, one good or bad game can shift things quite a bit. A number of rookies have hit rough spots, such that the whole crop projects to about 53 eWins on the year (down from 57).
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
7.5 Irving,Kyrie Cle 26 .506 22.7 5.7 7.9 3.4 1.0 3.1 1.1 2.10
4.2 Rubio,Ricky Min 28 .622 12.5 4.8 8.8 2.7 1.2 3.7 .2 1.12
4.0 Brooks,Marshon NJN 23 .527 20.9 5.3 .9 2.5 1.2 1.2 .4 1.25
3.5 Cole,Norris Mia 23 .523 18.0 2.7 5.7 2.9 2.3 3.6 .0 1.14
3.1 Thompson,Tristan Cle 19 .481 15.8 8.9 .6 4.0 .3 1.7 2.6 1.17
2.9 Morris,Markieff Phx 20 .662 15.5 8.6 1.8 5.3 .6 1.1 .8 1.07
2.5 Walker,Kemba Cha 19 .444 15.0 4.3 4.5 1.2 1.2 2.1 .0 .98
2.1 Leonard,Kawhi SAS 17 .408 10.3 10.4 1.0 1.6 2.0 .7 .3 .93
2.0 Kanter,Enes Uta 15 .468 10.6 12.2 .6 2.5 .7 .7 1.0 1.01
1.9 Stiemsma,Greg Bos 16 .647 10.1 10.7 1.7 6.7 .4 1.3 5.0 1.19
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.9 Leuer,Jon Mil 13 .591 14.1 7.4 .9 3.9 1.9 .5 1.3 1.04
1.9 Knight,Brandon Det 23 .513 16.0 2.8 3.4 2.4 1.0 3.6 .0 .59
1.7 Pargo,Jeremy Mem 23 .435 12.7 3.4 4.6 3.1 1.0 2.9 .0 .56
1.6 Williams,Derrick Min 18 .551 13.8 7.7 .9 3.3 1.5 2.7 .0 .65
1.5 Shumpert,Iman NYK 26 .547 19.2 6.4 2.7 2.6 1.3 2.6 .6 1.30
1.5 Burks,Alec Uta 12 .559 19.4 3.4 3.9 2.2 1.1 2.7 .5 1.16
1.3 Thomas,Isaiah Sac 12 .468 13.8 4.9 2.7 .8 1.9 2.7 .7 .82
1.3 Parsons,Chandler Hou 15 .569 15.2 11.5 .9 3.7 .5 3.2 .0 .96
1.1 Fredette,Jimmer Sac 25 .456 12.4 2.1 3.1 1.7 .8 2.3 .0 .32
1.0 Vucevic,Nikola Phi 12 .611 10.9 8.8 3.8 4.4 2.7 1.8 .8 1.07
0.9 Harris,Terrel Mia 6 .778 27.0 9.3 3.8 1.7 3.4 3.4 .0 2.43
Effective shooting % = Pts/(2*FGA+FTA) have gravitated toward the normal range.
Miami's Harris has played entirely in garbage time. Still, nice numbers.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:11 pm
by mystic
Using all players in their first season according to b-r.com.
Code: Select all
Name Team Q SPM W48 W484
Ricky Rubio MIN 1 3.43 0.212 2.14
Kyrie Irving CLE 1 3.29 0.207 2.09
Jon Leuer MIL 1 2.02 0.170 1.71
Iman Shumpert NYK 1 2.01 0.166 1.67
Alec Burks UTA 1 1.87 0.162 1.64
Norris Cole MIA 1 1.62 0.154 1.55
Markieff Morris PHO 1 1.45 0.149 1.50
Kawhi Leonard SAS 1 0.75 0.125 1.26
Enes Kanter UTA 1 0.70 0.123 1.24
Isaiah Thomas SAC 1 0.54 0.117 1.18
Chandler Parsons HOU 1 0.49 0.116 1.17
Derrick Williams MIN 1 0.49 0.116 1.17
Tristan Thompson CLE 1 -0.18 0.093 0.94
Kemba Walker CHA 1 -0.59 0.080 0.80
Greg Stiemsma BOS 1 -0.77 0.073 0.74
Marshon Brooks NJN 1 -1.03 0.065 0.65
Brandon Knight DET 1 -1.48 0.050 0.50
Josh Selby MEM 1 -2.87 0.003 0.03
Jeremy Pargo MEM 1 -3.30 -0.010 -0.10
Jimmer Fredette SAC 1 -3.47 -0.015 -0.15
Josh Harrellson NYK 1 -4.61 -0.053 -0.53
Bismack Biyombo CHA 1 -5.82 -0.086 -0.87
Klay Thompson GSW 1 -6.35 -0.105 -1.06
Chris Singleton WAS 1 -7.17 -0.129 -1.30
Terrel Harris MIA 0 12.89 0.448 4.51
Jimmy Butler CHI 0 12.57 0.448 4.52
Tyler Honeycutt SAC 0 10.56 0.402 4.06
Travis Leslie LAC 0 5.33 0.266 2.68
Kenneth Faried DEN 0 5.26 0.273 2.76
Nolan Smith POR 0 3.41 0.212 2.14
Mickell Gladness MIA 0 2.36 0.179 1.80
Mychel Thompson CLE 0 2.32 0.177 1.79
Jordan Williams NJN 0 2.18 0.172 1.74
Nikola Vucevic PHI 0 2.17 0.172 1.74
Ivan Johnson ATL 0 1.65 0.155 1.56
Cardell Johnson NOH 0 -1.93 0.035 0.35
Trey Thompkins LAC 0 -2.14 0.030 0.31
Vernon Macklin DET 0 -2.49 0.016 0.16
Cory Higgins CHA 0 -3.79 -0.025 -0.25
Chris Wright GSW 0 -4.03 -0.035 -0.35
JaJuan Johnson BOS 0 -4.16 -0.038 -0.38
Reggie Jackson OKC 0 -4.17 -0.036 -0.36
Charles Jenkins GSW 0 -4.22 -0.040 -0.41
Andrew Goudelock LAL 0 -4.39 -0.041 -0.41
Cory Joseph SAS 0 -4.39 -0.046 -0.47
Jerome Jordan NYK 0 -4.54 -0.048 -0.48
Dennis Horner NJN 0 -4.59 -0.051 -0.51
Shelvin Mack WAS 0 -5.21 -0.071 -0.71
E'Twaun Moore BOS 0 -6.80 -0.116 -1.17
Elliot Williams POR 0 -7.08 -0.120 -1.21
Justin Harper ORL 0 -7.65 -0.140 -1.41
Jeremy Tyler GSW 0 -8.24 -0.155 -1.57
Marcus Morris HOU 0 -8.47 -0.152 -1.53
Gustavo Ayon NOH 0 -9.54 -0.191 -1.93
Lance Thomas NOH 0-11.46 -0.233 -2.35
I can convert the SPM via league average ORtg/DRtg to wins per minute, per 48 minute or whatever minute value is desirable. To make it comparable to your, Mike G, e484 value, I included a wins per 484 minutes.
With 12 qualified rookies being above average, the current rookie class is performing pretty well.
For comparison the rookie class in 2010-11:
Code: Select all
Name Team Q SPM W48 W484
Blake Griffin LAC 1 4.41 0.236 2.38
John Wall WAS 1 0.74 0.123 1.24
Tiago Splitter SAS 1 0.54 0.117 1.18
DeMarcus Cousins SAC 1 0.51 0.116 1.17
Jeremy Evans UTA 1 0.28 0.108 1.09
Tyler Hansbrough IND 1 -0.04 0.098 0.98
Greg Monroe DET 1 -0.10 0.096 0.97
Gary Neal SAS 1 -0.39 0.087 0.87
Patrick Patterson HOU 1 -0.49 0.083 0.84
Landry Fields NYK 1 -0.59 0.080 0.81
Paul George IND 1 -0.89 0.070 0.71
Evan Turner PHI 1 -1.22 0.059 0.60
Gary Forbes DEN 1 -1.34 0.056 0.57
Ben Uzoh NJN 1 -1.45 0.052 0.53
Greivis Vasquez MEM 1 -1.47 0.052 0.53
Omer Asik CHI 1 -1.55 0.049 0.49
Jordan Crawford TOT 1 -1.56 0.049 0.49
Ed Davis TOR 1 -1.57 0.049 0.49
Trevor Booker WAS 1 -1.87 0.039 0.39
Eric Bledsoe LAC 1 -1.94 0.036 0.37
Damion James NJN 1 -2.33 0.024 0.24
Derrick Favors TOT 1 -2.38 0.022 0.23
Eugene Jeter SAC 1 -2.46 0.020 0.20
Al-Farouq Aminu LAC 1 -2.51 0.018 0.18
Larry Sanders MIL 1 -2.70 0.010 0.10
Ishmael Smith TOT 1 -2.77 0.011 0.11
Gordon Hayward UTA 1 -2.78 0.010 0.10
Manny Harris CLE 1 -2.91 0.006 0.06
Semih Erden TOT 1 -2.92 0.004 0.04
Lazar Hayward MIN 1 -2.94 0.005 0.05
Timofey Mozgov TOT 1 -3.25 -0.003 -0.03
Wesley Johnson MIN 1 -3.37 -0.009 -0.09
Samardo Samuels CLE 1 -3.49 -0.012 -0.12
Quincy Pondexter NOH 1 -3.66 -0.019 -0.19
Nikola Pekovic MIN 1 -4.08 -0.030 -0.30
Xavier Henry MEM 1 -4.29 -0.038 -0.38
Christian Eyenga CLE 1 -4.37 -0.039 -0.40
Ekpe Udoh GSW 1 -4.89 -0.055 -0.55
Kevin Seraphin WAS 1 -6.10 -0.090 -0.91
Devin Ebanks LAL 0 1.76 0.156 1.57
Pape Sy ATL 0 0.72 0.122 1.24
Dominique Jones DAL 0 -0.31 0.089 0.90
Armon Johnson POR 0 -1.34 0.056 0.57
Jeremy Lin GSW 0 -1.70 0.044 0.45
Zabian Dowdell PHO 0 -1.88 0.040 0.40
Chris Johnson TOT 0 -2.11 0.030 0.31
Lance Stephenson IND 0 -2.16 0.029 0.29
Patrick Ewing NOH 0 -2.23 0.027 0.27
Willie Warren LAC 0 -2.59 0.016 0.16
Garret Siler PHO 0 -2.75 0.013 0.13
Jeff Adrien GSW 0 -2.81 0.010 0.10
James Anderson SAS 0 -2.85 0.008 0.08
Derrick Caracter LAL 0 -3.00 0.003 0.03
Marcus Cousin UTA 0 -3.06 0.002 0.02
Andy Rautins NYK 0 -3.22 -0.002 -0.02
Larry Owens TOT 0 -3.31 -0.007 -0.07
Luke Babbitt POR 0 -3.36 -0.009 -0.09
Mustafa Shakur WAS 0 -3.67 -0.018 -0.18
Avery Bradley BOS 0 -4.05 -0.032 -0.32
Sherron Collins CHA 0 -4.19 -0.035 -0.35
Cole Aldrich OKC 0 -5.09 -0.063 -0.63
Dexter Pittman MIA 0 -5.93 -0.085 -0.85
Solomon Alabi TOR 0 -6.19 -0.089 -0.90
Craig Brackins PHI 0 -6.40 -0.100 -1.01
Hamady Ndiaye WAS 0 -7.99 -0.141 -1.42
Gani Lawal PHO 0-17.41 -0.296 -2.98
Hassan Whiteside SAC 0-26.79 -0.371 -3.75
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:17 pm
by Mike G
mystic, when you add all the "wins" from these rates, do teams sum close to their pythagorean wins?
I see your metric likes Leuer a lot more than Stiemsma at this point (1.71 to .74 w/484).
PER and WS/48 both have them pretty close (edge to Leuer), as do I (edge Stiemsma)
http://bkref.com/tiny/ILvYi
PER likes Irving by a lot over Rubio, and WS/48 favors Rubio (not by a lot).
You tend toward WS on this one, and I agree more with PER.
http://bkref.com/tiny/dTaH0
20 pts/36 vs 12, and they look about equal otherwise.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:39 pm
by mystic
The rates are adjusted for strength of schedule. If we adjust the pythogorean wins in a similar fashion, they should be about as equal as it gets. The rating is based upon a regression on the scoring margin. If I sum up all SPM for the regular season I get pretty much the SRS of a team.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:46 pm
by EvanZ
Mystic, is USG in your formula? If so, how is it weighted? I have Irving way down on my list, but he would obviously move up if USG was accounted for (which it's not in ezPM).
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:50 pm
by Mike G
mystic wrote:The rates are adjusted for strength of schedule. ..
Aha and OK. The Wolves' schedule has been some 13 ppg tougher than the Cavs', and the Bucks' about 8 ppg harder than the Celts'.
I haven't accounted for that.
I do try to account for a player's % of opponents who are starters and reserves; and I estimate the % of his points that are unassisted.
Irving has gone against 82% starters, by my formula, while Rubio has had just 52%.
Irving's rates are bumped up about 5%, and Rubio's are knocked down about the same amount.
They're similar in unassisted scoring, guessing 63-65%.
For this, they get just about a 2% boost in their scoring rates.
Re: 2011-12 Rookies
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:59 pm
by mystic
Mike G wrote:
I see your metric likes Leuer a lot more than Stiemsma at this point (1.71 to .74 w/484).
PER and WS/48 both have them pretty close (edge to Leuer), as do I (edge Stiemsma)
http://bkref.com/tiny/ILvYi
PER likes Irving by a lot over Rubio, and WS/48 favors Rubio (not by a lot).
You tend toward WS on this one, and I agree more with PER.
http://bkref.com/tiny/dTaH0
20 pts/36 vs 12, and they look about equal otherwise.
As I said before, the rating is adjusted for the strength of schedule. That adjustment is made under the assumption that it is easier to accumulate stats against weaker opponents. The Bucks played so far a much tougher schedule than the Celtics for example. The Timberwolves a tougher schedule than the Cavs. Even if players have the exact same boxscore stats, they will likely differ in SPM due to the adjustment for the strength of schedule.
Evan, USG is bascially included via points created. I calculate a value I call OFEF, which are the created points per 100 offensive possessions. Irving has 32.98 right now and is listed 10th in the league so far. That value is multiplied by EF%, which is just the combination of TS% and To-R. Irving has 0.461 and is listed 143th in the league. The combined value goes into the formula as offensive value, for Irving it is 15.21, 25th in the league (32.98*0.461 ~ 15.21). The leader in offensive value right now is Manu Ginobili with 24.78. The highest value for a whole season since 1985 has LeBron James in 2010 with 23.26. He has also the 2nd highest with 22.99 in 2009. After that Chris Paul in 2009 with 22.58 and Dwyane Wade in 2009 with 22.38. Followed by Michael Jordan with 21.95 in 1990.