2012 Finals: Miami vs Oklahoma

[Mike G]

Preview of the Finals.
Regular season and first 3 playoff series' standardized per 36 minute rates; eWins per game and per 480 minutes.

Miami Heat

Code: Select all

Anthony,Joel                                    
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb  Ast   PF   Stl    TO   Blk  3s  e480
R.S   .032   20   .584    6.6   7.3   .3   3.3  1.0   1.2   2.3   0   .73
NYK   .021   17   .667    4.7   7.6   .5   3.7   .8   1.2    .4   0   .59
Ind   .052   29   .660    8.7   5.6   .0   3.4   .6    .8   2.5   0   .87
Bos   .016   10   .611    6.0   6.8   .6   7.3   .0    .5   1.5   0   .56
                                    
Battier,Shane                                    
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%  Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s  e480
R.S   .020   23   .501   7.4   3.8   2.0   2.3   1.4    .8   .7   62   .42
NYK   .038   28   .526   8.9   4.5   2.6   3.8   1.3    .8   .8    7   .66
Ind  -.017   29   .329   3.4   4.3   1.1   3.6   1.2   1.0  1.0    6  -.28
Bos   .018   38   .500   6.5   3.4   2.3   2.6   1.0   1.0   .8   14   .23
                                    
Bosh,Chris                                    
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .111   30   .541   21.1   9.1   2.1   2.4   .9   2.2   .8   10   1.53
NYK   .112   33   .595   21.7   8.5   1.6   1.7   .4   1.7   .9    2   1.62
Ind   .053    3   .542   33.1   11.2   .0    .0   .0   6.3   .0    0   1.60
Bos   .080   10   .614   19.4   11.5   .6   1.4   .5   1.   1.9    3   1.57
                                    
Chalmers,Mario                                    
opp   eW/G   mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .059   28  .572   14.5   3.8   4.9   3.3   2.0   2.9   .2  101   1.00
NYK   .091   36  .551   14.8   4.4   5.6   2.6   1.6   2.0   .2   10   1.21
Ind   .067   32  .551   14.3   5.9   3.9   4.5    .6   1.9   .4    6   1.02
Bos   .074   38  .532   12.4   3.5   5.5   2.5   1.1   1.6   .1    9    .92
                                    
Cole,Norris                                    
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk  3s   e480
R.S   .010   19   .448  11.8   2.5   3.8   3.2   1.1   2.7   .1  21    .26
NYK  -.002    4   .500   8.0   2.0    .0   1.8   1.8   1.8   .0   0   -.18
Ind   .003   10   .455   5.1   2.2   3.9   4.6   1.5    .5   .0   0    .11
Bos   .000    7   .304   3.4   0.8   5.0   4.0   2.0   1.3   .0   0   -.01
                                    
Haslem,Udonis                                    
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco    Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk  3s   e480
R.S   .040   24   .472    8.6   11.0   1.0   3.0   .7   1.3   .5   0    .79
NYK   .035   19   .432    7.1   13.3   1.0   5.7   .4   1.1   .8   0    .90
Ind   .021   14   .577   14.2    9.3    .5   4.4   .0   2.4   .0   0    .60
Bos   .070   27   .494    8.2   14.1   1.9   4.3   .7   1.1   .4   0   1.23
                                    
James,Lebron                                    
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .206   35   .593   31.3   8.6   6.7   1.5   1.8   3.4   .8   54   2.65
NYK   .206   38   .586   36.1   6.5   6.6   2.7   2.1   4.0   .2    7   2.60
Ind   .296   42   .547   30.7  10.0   6.7    .7   2.3   2.5   .6    3   3.37
Bos   .224   46   .573   31.6  10.2   3.7   2.0    .9   2.7  1.0    9   2.34
                                    
Jones,James                                    
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF    Stl    TO  Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .006   10   .561    9.6   2.6   1.0   2.2    .8    .5   .4   46   .24
NYK   .010    4   .643   21.4   3.9    .0   3.5    .0    .0   .0    1   .98
Ind  -.001    7   .375    7.1   3.9   1.0    .7    .0    .0   .7    2  -.04
Bos   .003   10   .543    9.2   3.9    .6   1.9   1.0   1.0   .0    4   .17
                                    
Miller,Mike                                    
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO    Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .024   11   .560   11.4   6.0   2.0   2.5   .6   1.3   .3    53    .59
NYK   .047   23   .563   13.0   5.9   3.0   2.1   .6    .3   .0    11    .96
Ind  -.001   20   .524    6.8   4.5   1.8   3.4  1.4   2.0   .3     6   -.03
Bos   .006   13   .477   10.6   6.9    .9   4.8   .4   1.5   .0     7    .23
                                    
Wade,Dwyane                                    
opp   eW/G  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .148   25  .549   27.8   5.9   5.7   2.5   1.9   2.9   1.4   15   2.15
NYK   .139   36  .525   25.9   3.8   5.1   2.8   2.8   2.4   1.2    2   1.86
Ind   .178   38  .525   29.0   5.6   4.0   2.4   1.3   3.0   1.3    3   2.25
Bos   .127   42  .508   19.9   5.7   5.4   2.6   1.2   2.8   1.2    3   1.44

mpg are player minutes divided by team games.
eW/G are eWins per game in which the player appeared.
eW/G and eW/480min should both be expected to fall with greater competition in playoffs. Average e480 = 1.00, but this is relative to the competition at hand.

Oklahoma Thunder

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Collison,Nick                                    
opp   eW/G  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .028   20  .612    7.8   7.1   2.2   3.8    .8   1.5   .7    0    .65
Dal   .004   19  .500    3.7   3.9   4.1   7.7    .5   1.8   .9    0    .10
LAL   .031   18  .720    8.9   6.3   2.6   2.6    .7   1.1   .4    0    .80
SAS   .029   14  .694   11.6   8.7   1.3   5.2   2.4   1.2   .4    0   1.01
                                    
Cook,Daequan                                    
opp   eW/G  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO  Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .011   15  .507   10.5   4.3    .5   2.3    .7   .5   .4   79    .29
Dal   .011   11  .412    8.3   6.6   2.0   3.0   2.3   .0   .0    4    .51
LAL  -.004    7  .500    8.5   0.0   1.1   1.0    .0   .0   .0    2   -.31
SAS   .002    4  .714   13.9   1.5    .0   1.4    .0   .0   .0    2    .16
                                    
Durant,Kevin                                    
opp   eW/G  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .163   39  .598   29.8   8.0   3.5   1.9   1.3   3.6  1.1  133   2.04
Dal   .156   42  .567   26.5   7.1   4.1   2.4    .9   3.3  1.5    9   1.79
LAL   .196   40  .609   30.2   8.3   3.2    .9   1.4   2.5   .5    9   2.34
SAS   .191   43  .646   29.4   6.9   4.4   2.1   1.4   2.1  1.3   10   2.13
                                    
Fisher,Derek                                    
opp   eW/G  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
R.S  -.002   20  .426    7.4   2.4   2.4   2.5    .9   1.2   .1   11  -.04
Dal   .026   24  .688   13.9   3.1    .9   1.8   1.1   1.1   .4    5   .53
LAL   .006   18  .404    6.5   2.4   2.7   3.0   1.9    .4   .4    3   .15
SAS   .015   22  .467    9.7   2.8   3.6   3.6   1.0    .5   .0    5   .32
                                    
Harden,James                                    
opp   eW/G  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .093   29  .642   21.1   4.7   4.1   2.7   1.1   2.4   .3  114   1.44
Dal   .153   32  .658   25.4   6.4   5.5   3.3   2.7   2.4   .3    6   2.28
LAL   .095   29  .548   22.9   6.0   3.0   4.1   1.9   2.4   .2    5   1.58
SAS   .101   32  .627   23.1   6.5   4.1   3.6   1.3   2.0   .0   14   1.51
                                    
Ibaka,Serge                                    
opp   eW/G  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF  Stl   TO    Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .084   27  .549   13.0  10.7    .6   3.7   .7   1.6   4.7    1   1.51
Dal   .098   30  .667   15.5   8.9    .8   4.9   .6    .9   4.0    1   1.57
LAL   .068   27  .463    9.7   7.9   1.3   4.5   .5    .3   5.3    0   1.19
SAS   .074   31  .621   14.7   7.3    .4   2.4  1.0   1.2   3.1    0   1.16
                                    
Perkins,Kendrick                                    
opp   eW/G  mpg   Eff%  Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .038   26  .517   7.2    9.4   1.8   4.0   .5   2.5   1.5   0    .69
Dal   .031   23  .484   5.8   10.9   1.0   4.0   .4   1.6   1.2   0    .66
LAL   .029   29  .455   4.7    7.5   1.8   3.7   .5   1.7   2.7   0    .49
SAS   .020   28  .449   6.7    8.8   1.2   4.6   .7   2.6   1.7   0    .35
                                    
Sefolosha,Thabo                                    
opp   eW/G  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .027   14  .575    8.7   5.4   2.0   3.1   1.5   1.6   .6   31   .61
Dal   .022   17  .500    6.4   3.9   4.1   4.2   1.0    .0  1.0    3   .62
LAL   .029   19  .524    8.7   4.0   4.0   5.6   2.6   1.1   .4    4   .72
SAS   .047   26  .565   10.9   6.7   1.5   2.4   3.3    .9   .5    7   .88
                                    
Westbrook,Russell                                    
opp   eW/G  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480
R.S   .126   35  .529   26.1   5.0   6.2   2.3   1.8   3.8   .3   62   1.72
Dal   .115   37  .520   23.9   4.0   5.7   2.3   2.3   2.5   .0    4   1.51
LAL   .172   36  .545   29.4   5.9   5.5   2.0   1.6    .8   .0    3   2.31
SAS   .093   39  .445   15.8   6.0   7.8   2.8   1.4   3.1   .9    8   1.16

Fisher's regular season (R.S) line is for his Okl time only.

[Mike G]

Prediction (fanciful)

Using a straight-line extrapolation for a 5th point, based on the first 4 -- Regular season + rounds 1,2,3 (seen above) -- I've generated "expected" values in each category.
Minutes are then manually adjusted. For Okl, this is little more than to delete Cook and others; for Miami, Bosh was given 30 minutes/G, and others had theirs reduced.

Some of the extrapolated values are implausible or impossible, but I left them "as is". The key value is e480, which when multiplied by mpg/480 produces the eWins per game prediction.
Obviously, both teams cannot average .625 wins per game. All player rates, from Eff% to eW/480 can be expected to fall short of the numbers shown.

Code: Select all

Miami
eW/G   per36 rates   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.259   James,Lebron   46  .550   31.3  10.9   3.7   1.2   2.3   .9   2.70
.130   Wade,Dwyane    42  .497   20.5   5.6   4.6    .9   2.9  1.2   1.49
.101   Bosh,Chris     30  .614   25.4  12.6   -.5    .0   4.0  1.5   1.61
.074   Chalmers,Mario 38  .521   12.3   4.5   5.0    .4   1.2   .2    .93
.057   Haslem,Udonis  24  .547   11.0  13.3   1.6    .4   1.7   .1   1.14

.016   Anthony,Joel   12  .649    7.1   5.9    .5   -.2    .3  1.6    .63
.000   Jones,James     6  .450    7.9   4.6    .6    .6    .7   .2    .03
-.001  Cole,Norris     4  .308     .1    .6   5.1   2.2    .2   .0   -.08
-.002  Miller,Mike    10  .459    8.3   6.2    .9    .8   1.8   .0   -.08
-.007  Battier,Shane  28  .414    4.5   3.6   1.8    .8   1.1  1.0   -.12

.627     Miami       240     
                   
Oklahoma                             
eW/G   per36 rates   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.219   Durant,Kevin   46  .652   29.6   7.1   4.3   1.5   1.6  1.0   2.28
.121 Westbrook,Russel 40  .453   17.4   6.5   7.4   1.3   1.7   .8   1.45
.105   Harden,James   32  .580   24.1   7.2   3.5   1.7   2.0   .0   1.58
.064   Ibaka,Serge    31  .578   13.1   6.0    .7    .9    .5  3.5   1.00

.055  Sefolosha,Thabo 28  .539   10.9   6.0   2.5   3.9    .7   .3    .94
.029   Collison,Nick  13  .748   12.1   8.3   1.5   2.4   1.0   .3   1.08
.018   Fisher,Derek   21  .456    9.2   2.8   3.8   1.5    .1   .1    .41
.015 Perkins,Kendrick 29  .417    5.4   7.8   1.2    .6   2.2  2.4    .24

.626    Oklahoma     240                        

The Thunder have only 3 bigs in their rotation, and they total 73 mpg. Apparently Durant is PF for about half his minutes, and I guess Harden is SF for much of his time on the floor.

[Mike G]

Thunder 1, Heat 0
Score: 105-94
Pythagorean wins: .81 - .19; eWins: .66 - .34

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.23   Durant,Kevin   Okl   46  .735   36.1   7.5   3.6    .0   1.6   .8   2.36
.19 Westbrook,Russel Okl   42  .474   23.4   8.2  13.4    .9   1.7   .0   2.21
.13   James,Lebron   Mia   46  .526   23.4   7.6   3.2   3.1   3.1   .0   1.40
.09   Chalmers,Mario Mia   35  .857   15.6   2.2   6.2    .0   1.0  1.0   1.17
.08   Collison,Nick  Okl   21  .800   18.0  19.6    .0   1.7   3.3   .0   1.82

.07   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   42  .442   14.2   3.7   7.6    .9   2.6   .0    .75
.06   Battier,Shane  Mia   42  .850   15.5   3.7    .0    .9    .0   .0    .68
.05 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   25  1.00    8.8  12.1    .0    .0   2.9  1.5   1.01
.05  Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   29  .563   12.3   1.5   3.2   2.5   1.3  1.3    .87
.05   Ibaka,Serge    Okl   27  .476   11.4   9.6   1.8   1.3    .0   .0    .84

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.01   Fisher,Derek   Okl   25  .600    7.8   5.0   1.8    .0    .0   .0    .28
.01   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   29  .333    3.0  14.8    .0    .0   1.3   .0    .22
.01   Miller,Mike    Mia   10  .500    6.2   0.0   7.1    .0    .0   .0    .25
.00   Harden,James   Okl   22  .417    7.1   0.0   6.4    .0   1.6   .0   -.08
-.02  Bosh,Chris     Mia   34  .417    7.0   5.6    .0    .0   1.0   .0   -.21

Effective shooting: Okl .580 - .540 Mia
Rebounds: Okl 43 - 35 Mia
Turnovers: 10-10

[Mike G]

Thunder 1, Heat 1
Avg score: Okl 100.5 - 97.0 Mia
Pyth wins: 1.23 - .77; eWins 1.12 - .88

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.39   Durant,Kevin   Okl   43  .687   37.8   5.6   2.3    .9   1.7   .9   2.18
.32   James,Lebron   Mia   44  .549   27.1   8.0   4.3   2.1   2.5   .0   1.73
.31 Westbrook,Russel Okl   42  .466   21.6   8.2  10.2    .9   1.7   .0   1.76
.21   Battier,Shane  Mia   42  .944   22.4   2.5    .5    .4    .0   .0   1.21
.18   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   41  .483   18.0   5.1   7.4    .5   2.7   .5   1.07

.11   Ibaka,Serge    Okl   28  .486    9.6   7.6   1.6    .6    .0  3.2    .97
.11   Bosh,Chris     Mia   37  .473   10.8  11.0    .6    .5   1.5  1.0    .70
.10   Harden,James   Okl   29  .634   19.2   2.9   3.5    .6   1.8   .0    .88
.10   Collison,Nick  Okl   18  .800   10.9  14.0   1.1   1.8   1.8   .0   1.38
.07  Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   33  .462    5.8   3.9   2.6   2.2   1.1  1.6    .55

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.05   Chalmers,Mario Mia   38  .536    7.2   3.3   4.1   1.5   1.9   .5    .35
.05 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   23  .500    6.3  14.1    .0    .0   4.0  1.6    .49
.03   Miller,Mike    Mia    6  .667   13.8   3.1   6.5    .0    .0   .0   1.13
.01   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   23  .375    3.2  13.2    .0    .0   2.3   .8    .12
-.01  Fisher,Derek   Okl   25  .400    3.9   3.3    .8   1.4    .0   .0   -.14
-.03  Cole,Norris    Mia    7  .333    3.1   2.8    .0    .0   2.5   .0   -.98

shooting: Mia .553 - .551 Okl
rebounds: Okl 39.5 - 37.5 Mia
turnovers: Okl 10.0 - 11.5 Mia

[Mike G]

Heat 2, Thunder 1
Avg score: Okl 95.3 - 95.0 Mia
Pyth wins: 1.53 - 1.47; eWins 1.51 - 1.49

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.50   James,Lebron   Mia   44  .545   27.9   9.5   3.9   1.4   2.8   .0   1.83
.50   Durant,Kevin   Okl   41  .660   35.3   5.6   1.5    .9   2.7  1.2   1.95
.41 Westbrook,Russel Okl   41  .474   21.1   6.9   7.9    .6   1.8   .6   1.58
.33   Battier,Shane  Mia   40  1.000  21.4   2.7    .3    .6    .0   .0   1.34
.32   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   42  .472   19.3   5.5   7.3    .9   3.2   .3   1.21

.16 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   26  .563    9.1  13.9    .0    .0   2.3  1.4    .99
.16   Bosh,Chris     Mia   37  .434    9.9  11.3    .4    .3   1.3  1.3    .71
.16   Harden,James   Okl   30  .515   14.2   4.3   4.8   1.1   1.9   .0    .82
.15   Ibaka,Serge    Okl   26  .468    8.9   7.8   1.1    .5    .0  3.3    .93
.08  Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   31  .429    6.2   3.5   2.3   2.7   1.6  1.6    .43

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.08   Collison,Nick  Okl   16  .556    7.3  11.3    .8   2.0   1.4   .0    .77
.06   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   20  .545    7.5  11.8    .0    .0   2.4  1.2    .51
.06   Miller,Mike    Mia    6  .667   17.7   5.8   4.1    .0    .0  1.7   1.56
.06   Jones,James    Mia    6  .889   20.8   4.0    .0   1.8    .0   .0   1.51
.04   Chalmers,Mario Mia   38  .386    4.3   3.2   4.0   1.6   1.6   .6    .15

-.01  Fisher,Derek   Okl   26  .459    6.4   2.0    .5   1.8    .0   .0   -.06
-.05  Cole,Norris    Mia    6  .200    1.4   1.9    .0    .0   1.7   .0  -1.17

shooting: Mia .534 - .527 Okl
rebounds: Mia 40.0 - 39.0 Okl
turnovers: Okl 10.3 - 11.7 Mia

[Mike G]

Heat 3, Thunder 1
Avg score: 97.3 - 96.0
Pyth wins: 2.17 - 1.83; eWins: 2.09 - 1.91

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.75   James,Lebron   Mia   44  .544   26.4   9.4   5.9   1.4   2.7   .0   2.04
.64 Westbrook,Russel Okl   42  .525   25.9   6.8   6.9    .7   2.0   .4   1.82
.59   Durant,Kevin   Okl   43  .644   30.6   4.6   1.8   1.1   2.6   .9   1.66
.48   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   42  .487   20.5   5.4   6.3   1.1   2.8   .7   1.37
.25   Battier,Shane  Mia   40  .887   13.8   3.4    .3    .7    .0   .0    .75

.24   Bosh,Chris     Mia   37  .454   10.6  11.2    .3    .5   1.2  1.0    .77
.22   Ibaka,Serge    Okl   26  .473    8.1   8.6   1.6    .7    .3  2.8   1.01
.20   Chalmers,Mario Mia   37  .532   10.6   3.1   4.0   1.7   1.5   .5    .65
.17   Harden,James   Okl   32  .467   11.5   6.1   4.1   1.1   2.5   .0    .64
.16 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   24  .524    8.2  12.7    .0    .0   1.9  1.1    .78

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.14   Collison,Nick  Okl   17  .615    8.9  10.8   1.2   1.5   1.0   .5   1.00
.08   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   18  .545    6.3  11.8    .6    .0   2.5  1.0    .55
.06  Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   30  .411    5.9   3.4   1.8   2.1   1.2  1.2    .25
.05   Jones,James    Mia   10  .846   12.0   6.0    .0    .9    .9   .0    .68
.05   Miller,Mike    Mia    5  .571   13.0   6.9   3.7    .0    .0  1.5   1.21

-.01  Cole,Norris    Mia    7  .455   10.1   4.1    .0    .0   1.2   .0   -.24
-.05  Fisher,Derek   Okl   25  .436    4.8   1.6    .4   1.7    .0   .0   -.24

shooting: Mia .543 - .531 Okl
rebounds: Mia 40.0 - 38.0 Okl
turnovers: Okl 10.5 - 11.0 Mia

[Crow]

Harden and Ibaka fade dramatically from their per game eWin performance in the previous round.

Almost all of Miami's eWin advantage is coming from outside the top star duos.

[Mike G]

Through 4 Finals games, round-by-round performance by players still in their teams' rotations.
eWins per game refers to games in which the player has appeared. MPG is relative to team games.

Code: Select all

MIAMI HEAT

Battier,Shane                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
NYK   .038   28   .526    8.9   4.5   2.6   1.3    .8   .8    .66
Ind  -.017   29   .329    3.4   4.3   1.1   1.2   1.0  1.0   -.28
Bos   .018   38   .500    6.5   3.4   2.3   1.0   1.0   .8    .23
Okl   .062   40   .887   13.8   3.4    .3    .7    .0   .0    .75

Bosh,Chris                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
NYK   .112   33   .595   21.7   8.5   1.6    .4   1.7   .9   1.62
Ind   .053    3   .542   33.1  11.2    .0    .0   6.3   .0   1.60
Bos   .080   10   .614   19.4  11.5    .6    .5   1.9  1.9   1.57
Okl   .059   37   .454   10.6  11.2    .3    .5   1.2  1.0    .77

Chalmers,Mario                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
NYK   .091   36   .551   14.8   4.4   5.6   1.6   2.0   .2   1.21
Ind   .067   32   .551   14.3   5.9   3.9    .6   1.9   .4   1.02
Bos   .074   38   .532   12.4   3.5   5.5   1.1   1.6   .1    .92
Okl   .050   37   .532   10.6   3.1   4.0   1.7   1.5   .5    .65

Cole,Norris                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
NYK  -.002    4   .500    8.0   2.0    .0   1.8   1.8   .0   -.18
Ind   .003   10   .455    5.1   2.2   3.9   1.5    .5   .0    .11
Bos   .000    7   .304    3.4    .8   5.0   2.0   1.3   .0   -.01
Okl  -.003    7   .455   10.1   4.1    .0    .0   1.2   .0   -.24

Haslem,Udonis                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
NYK   .035   19   .432    7.1  13.3   1.0    .4   1.1   .8    .90
Ind   .021   14   .577   14.2   9.3    .5    .0   2.4   .0    .60
Bos   .070   27   .494    8.2  14.1   1.9    .7   1.1   .4   1.23
Okl   .020   18   .545    6.3  11.8    .6    .0   2.5  1.0    .55

James,Lebron                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
NYK   .206   38   .586   36.1   6.5   6.6   2.1   4.0   .2   2.60
Ind   .296   42   .547   30.7  10.0   6.7   2.3   2.5   .6   3.37
Bos   .224   46   .573   31.6  10.2   3.7    .9   2.7  1.0   2.34
Okl   .187   44   .544   26.4   9.4   5.9   1.4   2.7   .0   2.04

Jones,James                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
NYK   .010    4   .643   21.4   3.9    .0    .0    .0   .0    .98
Ind  -.001    7   .375    7.1   3.9   1.0    .0    .0   .7   -.04
Bos   .003   10   .543    9.2   3.9    .6   1.0   1.0   .0    .17
Okl   .014   10   .846   12.0   6.0    .0    .9    .9   .0    .68

Miller,Mike                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
NYK   .047   23   .563   13.0   5.9   3.0    .6    .3   .0    .96
Ind  -.001   20   .524    6.8   4.5   1.8   1.4   2.0   .3   -.03
Bos   .006   13   .477   10.6   6.9    .9    .4   1.5   .0    .23
Okl   .013    5   .571   13.0   6.9   3.7    .0    .0  1.5   1.21

Wade,Dwyane                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
NYK   .139   36   .525   25.9   3.8   5.1   2.8   2.4  1.2   1.86
Ind   .178   38   .525   29.0   5.6   4.0   1.3   3.0  1.3   2.25
Bos   .127   42   .508   19.9   5.7   5.4   1.2   2.8  1.2   1.44
Okl   .120   42   .487   20.5   5.4   6.3   1.1   2.8   .7   1.37
                
              
OKLAHOMA THUNDER 
                             
Collison,Nick                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Dal   .004   19   .500    3.7   3.9   4.1    .5   1.8   .9    .10
LAL   .031   18   .720    8.9   6.3   2.6    .7   1.1   .4    .80
SAS   .029   14   .694   11.6   8.7   1.3   2.4   1.2   .4   1.01
Mia   .034   17   .615    8.9  10.8   1.2   1.5   1.0   .5   1.00

Durant,Kevin                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Dal   .156   42   .567   26.5   7.1   4.1    .9   3.3  1.5   1.79
LAL   .196   40   .609   30.2   8.3   3.2   1.4   2.5   .5   2.34
SAS   .191   43   .646   29.4   6.9   4.4   1.4   2.1  1.3   2.13
Mia   .147   43   .644   30.6   4.6   1.8   1.1   2.6   .9   1.66

Fisher,Derek                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Dal   .026   24   .688   13.9   3.1    .9   1.1   1.1   .4    .53
LAL   .006   18   .404    6.5   2.4   2.7   1.9    .4   .4    .15
SAS   .015   22   .467    9.7   2.8   3.6   1.0    .5   .0    .32
Mia  -.012   25   .436    4.8   1.6    .4   1.7    .0   .0   -.24

Harden,James                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Dal   .153   32   .658   25.4   6.4   5.5   2.7   2.4   .3   2.28
LAL   .095   29   .548   22.9   6.0   3.0   1.9   2.4   .2   1.58
SAS   .101   32   .627   23.1   6.5   4.1   1.3   2.0   .0   1.51
Mia   .043   32   .467   11.5   6.1   4.1   1.1   2.5   .0    .64

Ibaka,Serge                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Dal   .098   30   .667   15.5   8.9    .8    .6    .9  4.0   1.57
LAL   .068   27   .463    9.7   7.9   1.3    .5    .3  5.3   1.19
SAS   .074   31   .621   14.7   7.3    .4   1.0   1.2  3.1   1.16
Mia   .055   26   .473    8.1   8.6   1.6    .7    .3  2.8   1.01

Perkins,Kendrick                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Dal   .031   23   .484    5.8  10.9   1.0    .4   1.6  1.2    .66
LAL   .029   29   .455    4.7   7.5   1.8    .5   1.7  2.7    .49
SAS   .020   28   .449    6.7   8.8   1.2    .7   2.6  1.7    .35
Mia   .039   24   .524    8.2  12.7    .0    .0   1.9  1.1    .78

Sefolosha,Thabo                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Dal   .022   17   .500    6.4   3.9   4.1   1.0    .0  1.0    .62
LAL   .029   19   .524    8.7   4.0   4.0   2.6   1.1   .4    .72
SAS   .047   26   .565   10.9   6.7   1.5   3.3    .9   .5    .88
Mia   .016   30   .411    5.9   3.4   1.8   2.1   1.2  1.2    .25

Westbrook,Russell                              
opp   eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Dal   .115   37   .520   23.9   4.0   5.7   2.3   2.5   .0   1.51
LAL   .172   36   .545   29.4   5.9   5.5   1.6    .8   .0   2.31
SAS   .093   39   .445   15.8   6.0   7.8   1.4   3.1   .9   1.16
Mia   .159   42   .525   25.9   6.8   6.9    .7   2.0   .4   1.82

Getting weaker (not adjusting for level of competition) in each successive round of playoffs: Bosh, Chalmers; Harden, Ibaka.
Now playing their best playoff basketball: Battier, Miller (for 5 mpg); Collison, Perkins.
Perk's productivity is almost inversely related to his MPG.

[bbstats]

Mike,

I'd love to appreciate these numbers, but I've never been able to track down any glossary, explanation of terms, or derivation/methods for your work. Is this available somewhere?

[J.E.]

Congratulations to the Miami Heat for winning the finals and to LeBron James for deservedly winning finals MVP

[Mike G]

Miami Heat 4, Oklahoma Thunder 1
Average score: 102-98
Pythagorean Wins: 3.15 - 1.85; eWins: 2.82 - 2.18

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.97   James,Lebron   Mia   44  .546   25.4   9.6   7.7   1.3   3.1   .3   2.12
.70   Durant,Kevin   Okl   43  .640   29.7   5.7   1.9   1.2   3.2   .9   1.58
.65 Westbrook,Russel Okl   42  .493   22.1   6.2   6.5    .9   1.9   .3   1.48
.64   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   41  .504   20.7   6.1   6.1   1.3   2.5  1.1   1.52
.38   Bosh,Chris     Mia   36  .518   13.6  10.6    .3    .6   1.0  1.2   1.00

.29   Chalmers,Mario Mia   37  .559   11.0   2.9   5.1   1.8   2.0   .4    .75
.27   Battier,Shane  Mia   38  .841   13.6   3.7    .5    .8    .2   .0    .70
.26   Harden,James   Okl   33  .517   13.2   5.7   4.2   1.3   2.6   .0    .76
.23   Ibaka,Serge    Okl   26  .455    8.1   8.1   1.2    .6    .3  2.8    .84
.19   Miller,Mike    Mia    9  .816   27.9   7.6   1.8    .7    .0   .7   2.04

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.13   Collison,Nick  Okl   17  .563    7.1  10.4   1.3   1.2    .8   .4    .76
.13 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   23  .480    6.7  11.9    .0    .3   1.9   .9    .53
.07   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   16  .500    5.3  10.6   1.1    .0   2.1   .9    .43
.02  Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   26  .383    5.0   3.2   1.6   2.0   1.1  1.1    .08
.02   Jones,James    Mia    9  .733    9.3   5.2    .0    .8   1.5   .0    .19

.01   Fisher,Derek   Okl   26  .528    6.6   2.4   1.2   1.3    .0   .0    .03
-.04  Cole,Norris    Mia    9  .433    7.7   3.4    .0    .0    .7   .0   -.39

Effective shooting: Mia .564 - .531 Okl
Rebounds per game: Mia 40.2 - 38.0 Okl
Turnovers per game: Okl 11.0 - 11.4 Mia

[Mike G]

Mike,

I'd love to appreciate these numbers, but I've never been able to track down any glossary, explanation of terms, or derivation/methods for your work. Is this available somewhere?

It's been done, and it's buried in the wreckage of the site meltdown. There's this "recovered" thread: http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=101

[huevonkiller]

What an amazing series.

It's time for Hollinger to give LeBron more credit too.

Wow LeBron probably has the two greatest post-seasons of all time. In 2012 he had 5.8 win shares, and a 284 WS/48. In 2009 he had the greatest post-season of all time. What a freak of nature.