The Matchup Matrix

[Eternal]

My work with power ratings raises a nice idea - we can build a 30x30 matrix with home team down, away team across. The value of the matrix would indicate if the home or away team was favored. The Knicks, for example, would be favored over everyone away except the Grizzles, Clippers and Heat. The matrix could be populated with the most likely winner or the estimated win probability (using the power ratings, adjusting for home court, and applying Pythagorean W/L).

-Chris

[Crow]

That would increase convenience.

[Eternal]

With two evenly matched teams the home team is expected to win about 63% of the time.

Estimates include results of games from 11/19.

Code: Select all

 H/A | ATL | BOS | CHA | CHI | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GSW | HOU | IND | LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN | NJN | NOH | NYK | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHO | POR | SAC | SAS | TOR | UTA | WAS
 ATL | .63 | .62 | .96 | .41 | .88 | .65 | .61 | .85 | .79 | .68 | .63 | .62 | .64 | .63 | .49 | .72 | .76 | .88 | .80 | .62 | .48 | .71 | .56 | .70 | .71 | .84 | .45 | .82 | .69 | .85
 BOS | .64 | .63 | .96 | .42 | .89 | .66 | .62 | .86 | .80 | .69 | .64 | .63 | .65 | .64 | .50 | .73 | .77 | .88 | .81 | .63 | .50 | .72 | .58 | .71 | .72 | .85 | .47 | .83 | .70 | .85
 CHA | .11 | .10 | .63 | .05 | .35 | .12 | .10 | .29 | .21 | .13 | .11 | .10 | .11 | .11 | .06 | .16 | .18 | .34 | .22 | .11 | .06 | .15 | .09 | .14 | .15 | .28 | .06 | .25 | .14 | .28
 CHI | .81 | .80 | .98 | .63 | .95 | .82 | .79 | .93 | .90 | .84 | .81 | .80 | .81 | .81 | .70 | .86 | .88 | .95 | .91 | .80 | .70 | .86 | .76 | .85 | .86 | .93 | .67 | .92 | .84 | .93
 CLE | .28 | .27 | .84 | .14 | .63 | .29 | .26 | .57 | .46 | .32 | .28 | .27 | .29 | .28 | .18 | .37 | .42 | .62 | .47 | .27 | .18 | .36 | .23 | .35 | .36 | .55 | .16 | .51 | .33 | .56
 DAL | .61 | .60 | .96 | .39 | .87 | .63 | .59 | .84 | .78 | .66 | .61 | .60 | .63 | .61 | .47 | .71 | .74 | .87 | .79 | .61 | .47 | .69 | .55 | .68 | .69 | .83 | .44 | .81 | .67 | .84
 DEN | .65 | .64 | .96 | .44 | .89 | .67 | .63 | .86 | .80 | .70 | .65 | .64 | .67 | .65 | .52 | .74 | .78 | .89 | .81 | .65 | .51 | .73 | .59 | .72 | .73 | .85 | .48 | .84 | .71 | .86
 DET | .34 | .32 | .87 | .17 | .69 | .35 | .31 | .63 | .52 | .38 | .33 | .32 | .35 | .34 | .22 | .44 | .48 | .68 | .54 | .33 | .22 | .42 | .28 | .41 | .42 | .61 | .20 | .57 | .39 | .62
 GSW | .44 | .43 | .92 | .24 | .77 | .46 | .41 | .73 | .63 | .49 | .44 | .42 | .45 | .44 | .31 | .55 | .59 | .77 | .64 | .43 | .30 | .53 | .37 | .52 | .53 | .71 | .28 | .68 | .50 | .72
 HOU | .58 | .57 | .95 | .36 | .86 | .60 | .56 | .82 | .75 | .63 | .58 | .57 | .59 | .58 | .44 | .68 | .72 | .85 | .76 | .57 | .43 | .66 | .51 | .66 | .67 | .81 | .40 | .79 | .64 | .82
 IND | .63 | .62 | .96 | .41 | .88 | .65 | .61 | .85 | .79 | .68 | .63 | .62 | .64 | .63 | .49 | .72 | .76 | .88 | .80 | .62 | .49 | .71 | .57 | .70 | .71 | .84 | .45 | .82 | .69 | .85
 LAC | .65 | .63 | .96 | .43 | .89 | .66 | .62 | .86 | .80 | .69 | .64 | .63 | .66 | .64 | .51 | .74 | .77 | .88 | .81 | .64 | .50 | .72 | .58 | .71 | .72 | .85 | .47 | .83 | .70 | .85
 LAL | .62 | .61 | .96 | .40 | .88 | .64 | .59 | .85 | .78 | .67 | .62 | .60 | .63 | .62 | .48 | .71 | .75 | .87 | .79 | .61 | .47 | .70 | .55 | .69 | .70 | .83 | .44 | .81 | .68 | .84
 MEM | .63 | .62 | .96 | .41 | .88 | .65 | .61 | .85 | .79 | .68 | .63 | .62 | .64 | .63 | .49 | .72 | .76 | .88 | .80 | .62 | .48 | .71 | .56 | .70 | .71 | .84 | .45 | .82 | .69 | .85
 MIA | .75 | .74 | .98 | .55 | .93 | .76 | .73 | .91 | .87 | .79 | .75 | .74 | .76 | .75 | .63 | .82 | .85 | .93 | .87 | .75 | .62 | .81 | .70 | .81 | .81 | .90 | .59 | .89 | .80 | .91
 MIL | .53 | .51 | .94 | .31 | .83 | .54 | .50 | .79 | .71 | .58 | .52 | .51 | .54 | .53 | .39 | .63 | .67 | .82 | .72 | .52 | .38 | .61 | .46 | .60 | .61 | .77 | .35 | .75 | .59 | .78
 MIN | .48 | .47 | .93 | .28 | .80 | .50 | .46 | .76 | .67 | .53 | .48 | .47 | .50 | .48 | .34 | .59 | .63 | .80 | .68 | .47 | .34 | .57 | .41 | .56 | .57 | .74 | .31 | .71 | .55 | .75
 NJN | .29 | .28 | .85 | .14 | .64 | .30 | .27 | .58 | .47 | .33 | .29 | .28 | .30 | .29 | .19 | .38 | .43 | .63 | .48 | .28 | .18 | .37 | .24 | .36 | .37 | .56 | .16 | .52 | .34 | .57
 NOH | .43 | .41 | .91 | .23 | .76 | .44 | .40 | .71 | .62 | .48 | .42 | .41 | .44 | .43 | .29 | .53 | .57 | .76 | .63 | .42 | .29 | .51 | .36 | .50 | .51 | .70 | .26 | .66 | .49 | .71
 NYK | .64 | .63 | .96 | .42 | .89 | .65 | .61 | .86 | .79 | .68 | .64 | .62 | .65 | .64 | .50 | .73 | .76 | .88 | .80 | .63 | .49 | .71 | .57 | .71 | .72 | .84 | .46 | .83 | .70 | .85
 OKC | .76 | .75 | .98 | .56 | .93 | .77 | .74 | .91 | .87 | .79 | .75 | .74 | .77 | .76 | .64 | .83 | .85 | .93 | .88 | .75 | .63 | .81 | .70 | .81 | .82 | .91 | .60 | .89 | .80 | .91
 ORL | .55 | .53 | .94 | .33 | .84 | .56 | .52 | .80 | .72 | .60 | .54 | .53 | .56 | .55 | .40 | .65 | .69 | .84 | .74 | .54 | .40 | .63 | .48 | .62 | .63 | .79 | .37 | .76 | .61 | .80
 PHI | .69 | .68 | .97 | .48 | .91 | .71 | .67 | .88 | .83 | .73 | .69 | .68 | .70 | .69 | .56 | .78 | .80 | .90 | .84 | .68 | .55 | .76 | .63 | .75 | .76 | .87 | .52 | .86 | .74 | .88
 PHO | .56 | .54 | .95 | .34 | .85 | .57 | .53 | .81 | .73 | .60 | .55 | .54 | .57 | .56 | .41 | .66 | .70 | .84 | .74 | .55 | .41 | .64 | .49 | .63 | .64 | .79 | .38 | .77 | .62 | .80
 POR | .55 | .53 | .94 | .33 | .84 | .56 | .52 | .80 | .72 | .59 | .54 | .53 | .56 | .54 | .40 | .65 | .69 | .83 | .73 | .54 | .40 | .63 | .48 | .62 | .63 | .79 | .37 | .76 | .61 | .79
 SAC | .36 | .34 | .88 | .18 | .71 | .37 | .33 | .65 | .55 | .40 | .35 | .34 | .37 | .36 | .24 | .46 | .50 | .70 | .56 | .35 | .23 | .44 | .30 | .43 | .44 | .63 | .21 | .60 | .42 | .64
 SAS | .78 | .77 | .98 | .59 | .94 | .79 | .76 | .92 | .88 | .81 | .78 | .77 | .79 | .78 | .66 | .84 | .87 | .94 | .89 | .77 | .66 | .83 | .73 | .83 | .83 | .92 | .63 | .90 | .82 | .92
 TOR | .39 | .38 | .90 | .21 | .74 | .41 | .36 | .68 | .58 | .44 | .39 | .37 | .40 | .39 | .26 | .49 | .54 | .73 | .59 | .38 | .26 | .47 | .33 | .47 | .48 | .66 | .24 | .63 | .45 | .67
 UTA | .57 | .56 | .95 | .35 | .85 | .59 | .54 | .82 | .74 | .62 | .57 | .55 | .58 | .57 | .43 | .67 | .71 | .85 | .75 | .56 | .42 | .65 | .50 | .64 | .65 | .80 | .39 | .78 | .63 | .81
 WAS | .35 | .33 | .88 | .18 | .70 | .36 | .32 | .64 | .53 | .39 | .34 | .33 | .36 | .35 | .23 | .45 | .49 | .69 | .55 | .34 | .22 | .43 | .29 | .42 | .43 | .62 | .20 | .59 | .41 | .63

[/size]

[Eternal]

Note that Basketball Reference is still using the old team ID for the Brooklyn Nets (NJN).

76ers (home) over Raptors - 86%
Knicks over Hornets (home) - 58%
Lakers (home) over Nets - 70%

-Chris