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The Matchup Matrix
Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:49 pm
by Eternal
My work with power ratings raises a nice idea - we can build a 30x30 matrix with home team down, away team across. The value of the matrix would indicate if the home or away team was favored. The Knicks, for example, would be favored over everyone away except the Grizzles, Clippers and Heat. The matrix could be populated with the most likely winner or the estimated win probability (using the power ratings, adjusting for home court, and applying Pythagorean W/L).
-Chris
Re: The Matchup Matrix
Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:53 pm
by Crow
That would increase convenience.
Re: The Matchup Matrix
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:08 am
by Eternal
With two evenly matched teams the home team is expected to win about 63% of the time.
Estimates include results of games from 11/19.
Code: Select all
H/A | ATL | BOS | CHA | CHI | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GSW | HOU | IND | LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN | NJN | NOH | NYK | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHO | POR | SAC | SAS | TOR | UTA | WAS
ATL | .63 | .62 | .96 | .41 | .88 | .65 | .61 | .85 | .79 | .68 | .63 | .62 | .64 | .63 | .49 | .72 | .76 | .88 | .80 | .62 | .48 | .71 | .56 | .70 | .71 | .84 | .45 | .82 | .69 | .85
BOS | .64 | .63 | .96 | .42 | .89 | .66 | .62 | .86 | .80 | .69 | .64 | .63 | .65 | .64 | .50 | .73 | .77 | .88 | .81 | .63 | .50 | .72 | .58 | .71 | .72 | .85 | .47 | .83 | .70 | .85
CHA | .11 | .10 | .63 | .05 | .35 | .12 | .10 | .29 | .21 | .13 | .11 | .10 | .11 | .11 | .06 | .16 | .18 | .34 | .22 | .11 | .06 | .15 | .09 | .14 | .15 | .28 | .06 | .25 | .14 | .28
CHI | .81 | .80 | .98 | .63 | .95 | .82 | .79 | .93 | .90 | .84 | .81 | .80 | .81 | .81 | .70 | .86 | .88 | .95 | .91 | .80 | .70 | .86 | .76 | .85 | .86 | .93 | .67 | .92 | .84 | .93
CLE | .28 | .27 | .84 | .14 | .63 | .29 | .26 | .57 | .46 | .32 | .28 | .27 | .29 | .28 | .18 | .37 | .42 | .62 | .47 | .27 | .18 | .36 | .23 | .35 | .36 | .55 | .16 | .51 | .33 | .56
DAL | .61 | .60 | .96 | .39 | .87 | .63 | .59 | .84 | .78 | .66 | .61 | .60 | .63 | .61 | .47 | .71 | .74 | .87 | .79 | .61 | .47 | .69 | .55 | .68 | .69 | .83 | .44 | .81 | .67 | .84
DEN | .65 | .64 | .96 | .44 | .89 | .67 | .63 | .86 | .80 | .70 | .65 | .64 | .67 | .65 | .52 | .74 | .78 | .89 | .81 | .65 | .51 | .73 | .59 | .72 | .73 | .85 | .48 | .84 | .71 | .86
DET | .34 | .32 | .87 | .17 | .69 | .35 | .31 | .63 | .52 | .38 | .33 | .32 | .35 | .34 | .22 | .44 | .48 | .68 | .54 | .33 | .22 | .42 | .28 | .41 | .42 | .61 | .20 | .57 | .39 | .62
GSW | .44 | .43 | .92 | .24 | .77 | .46 | .41 | .73 | .63 | .49 | .44 | .42 | .45 | .44 | .31 | .55 | .59 | .77 | .64 | .43 | .30 | .53 | .37 | .52 | .53 | .71 | .28 | .68 | .50 | .72
HOU | .58 | .57 | .95 | .36 | .86 | .60 | .56 | .82 | .75 | .63 | .58 | .57 | .59 | .58 | .44 | .68 | .72 | .85 | .76 | .57 | .43 | .66 | .51 | .66 | .67 | .81 | .40 | .79 | .64 | .82
IND | .63 | .62 | .96 | .41 | .88 | .65 | .61 | .85 | .79 | .68 | .63 | .62 | .64 | .63 | .49 | .72 | .76 | .88 | .80 | .62 | .49 | .71 | .57 | .70 | .71 | .84 | .45 | .82 | .69 | .85
LAC | .65 | .63 | .96 | .43 | .89 | .66 | .62 | .86 | .80 | .69 | .64 | .63 | .66 | .64 | .51 | .74 | .77 | .88 | .81 | .64 | .50 | .72 | .58 | .71 | .72 | .85 | .47 | .83 | .70 | .85
LAL | .62 | .61 | .96 | .40 | .88 | .64 | .59 | .85 | .78 | .67 | .62 | .60 | .63 | .62 | .48 | .71 | .75 | .87 | .79 | .61 | .47 | .70 | .55 | .69 | .70 | .83 | .44 | .81 | .68 | .84
MEM | .63 | .62 | .96 | .41 | .88 | .65 | .61 | .85 | .79 | .68 | .63 | .62 | .64 | .63 | .49 | .72 | .76 | .88 | .80 | .62 | .48 | .71 | .56 | .70 | .71 | .84 | .45 | .82 | .69 | .85
MIA | .75 | .74 | .98 | .55 | .93 | .76 | .73 | .91 | .87 | .79 | .75 | .74 | .76 | .75 | .63 | .82 | .85 | .93 | .87 | .75 | .62 | .81 | .70 | .81 | .81 | .90 | .59 | .89 | .80 | .91
MIL | .53 | .51 | .94 | .31 | .83 | .54 | .50 | .79 | .71 | .58 | .52 | .51 | .54 | .53 | .39 | .63 | .67 | .82 | .72 | .52 | .38 | .61 | .46 | .60 | .61 | .77 | .35 | .75 | .59 | .78
MIN | .48 | .47 | .93 | .28 | .80 | .50 | .46 | .76 | .67 | .53 | .48 | .47 | .50 | .48 | .34 | .59 | .63 | .80 | .68 | .47 | .34 | .57 | .41 | .56 | .57 | .74 | .31 | .71 | .55 | .75
NJN | .29 | .28 | .85 | .14 | .64 | .30 | .27 | .58 | .47 | .33 | .29 | .28 | .30 | .29 | .19 | .38 | .43 | .63 | .48 | .28 | .18 | .37 | .24 | .36 | .37 | .56 | .16 | .52 | .34 | .57
NOH | .43 | .41 | .91 | .23 | .76 | .44 | .40 | .71 | .62 | .48 | .42 | .41 | .44 | .43 | .29 | .53 | .57 | .76 | .63 | .42 | .29 | .51 | .36 | .50 | .51 | .70 | .26 | .66 | .49 | .71
NYK | .64 | .63 | .96 | .42 | .89 | .65 | .61 | .86 | .79 | .68 | .64 | .62 | .65 | .64 | .50 | .73 | .76 | .88 | .80 | .63 | .49 | .71 | .57 | .71 | .72 | .84 | .46 | .83 | .70 | .85
OKC | .76 | .75 | .98 | .56 | .93 | .77 | .74 | .91 | .87 | .79 | .75 | .74 | .77 | .76 | .64 | .83 | .85 | .93 | .88 | .75 | .63 | .81 | .70 | .81 | .82 | .91 | .60 | .89 | .80 | .91
ORL | .55 | .53 | .94 | .33 | .84 | .56 | .52 | .80 | .72 | .60 | .54 | .53 | .56 | .55 | .40 | .65 | .69 | .84 | .74 | .54 | .40 | .63 | .48 | .62 | .63 | .79 | .37 | .76 | .61 | .80
PHI | .69 | .68 | .97 | .48 | .91 | .71 | .67 | .88 | .83 | .73 | .69 | .68 | .70 | .69 | .56 | .78 | .80 | .90 | .84 | .68 | .55 | .76 | .63 | .75 | .76 | .87 | .52 | .86 | .74 | .88
PHO | .56 | .54 | .95 | .34 | .85 | .57 | .53 | .81 | .73 | .60 | .55 | .54 | .57 | .56 | .41 | .66 | .70 | .84 | .74 | .55 | .41 | .64 | .49 | .63 | .64 | .79 | .38 | .77 | .62 | .80
POR | .55 | .53 | .94 | .33 | .84 | .56 | .52 | .80 | .72 | .59 | .54 | .53 | .56 | .54 | .40 | .65 | .69 | .83 | .73 | .54 | .40 | .63 | .48 | .62 | .63 | .79 | .37 | .76 | .61 | .79
SAC | .36 | .34 | .88 | .18 | .71 | .37 | .33 | .65 | .55 | .40 | .35 | .34 | .37 | .36 | .24 | .46 | .50 | .70 | .56 | .35 | .23 | .44 | .30 | .43 | .44 | .63 | .21 | .60 | .42 | .64
SAS | .78 | .77 | .98 | .59 | .94 | .79 | .76 | .92 | .88 | .81 | .78 | .77 | .79 | .78 | .66 | .84 | .87 | .94 | .89 | .77 | .66 | .83 | .73 | .83 | .83 | .92 | .63 | .90 | .82 | .92
TOR | .39 | .38 | .90 | .21 | .74 | .41 | .36 | .68 | .58 | .44 | .39 | .37 | .40 | .39 | .26 | .49 | .54 | .73 | .59 | .38 | .26 | .47 | .33 | .47 | .48 | .66 | .24 | .63 | .45 | .67
UTA | .57 | .56 | .95 | .35 | .85 | .59 | .54 | .82 | .74 | .62 | .57 | .55 | .58 | .57 | .43 | .67 | .71 | .85 | .75 | .56 | .42 | .65 | .50 | .64 | .65 | .80 | .39 | .78 | .63 | .81
WAS | .35 | .33 | .88 | .18 | .70 | .36 | .32 | .64 | .53 | .39 | .34 | .33 | .36 | .35 | .23 | .45 | .49 | .69 | .55 | .34 | .22 | .43 | .29 | .42 | .43 | .62 | .20 | .59 | .41 | .63
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Re: The Matchup Matrix
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:24 am
by Eternal
Note that Basketball Reference is still using the old team ID for the Brooklyn Nets (NJN).
76ers (home) over Raptors - 86%
Knicks over Hornets (home) - 58%
Lakers (home) over Nets - 70%
-Chris