Hollinger's PER

[ching]

Looking at the missed free throw component of PER: VOP * 0.44 * (0.44 + (0.56 * DRB%)) * (FTA - FT)
It assumes that 56% of the free throws will give the team a chance for the offensive rebound.
I don't see it.
Here is the explanation: There are five different types of free throws: And-one, technical/flagrant, first shot of two free throws, first two shots of three free throws, and last shot of two or three free throws.
Given the study that one free throw is about 0.44 possessions, we can know that 44% of all free throws are the last shots of two or three free throws.
The only free throws that a team can grab an offensive rebound is and-one shots and the last shots of two or three free throws.
Looking at hoopdata.com and1% and free throw rate, and1 free throws are about 10% or less of all free throws.
As a result, only about 54% or less of free throws give the team a chance for the offensive rebound.

Does anyone agree with me?
If I understand the formula incorrectly, please tell me how.

[bbstats]

Hm, this is indeed confusing.

FWIW, I think I found something like a 14 or 17% offensive rebound rate for all reboundable FTs last year.

[EvanZ]

Looking at the missed free throw component of PER: VOP * 0.44 * (0.44 + (0.56 * DRB%)) * (FTA - FT)
It assumes that 56% of the free throws will give the team a chance for the offensive rebound.
I don't see it.
.
.
.
As a result, only about 54% or less of free throws give the team a chance for the offensive rebound.

Does anyone agree with me?

If you're making a big deal about 2%, maybe you should do more than a back-of-the-envelope calculation.