Nets' new starters

[xkonk]

Brad Doolittle has an Insider piece on the Celtics-Nets trade focusing on the Nets side of the deal: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/ ... -14-season . He points out that the likely starting five (Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett, and Lopez) have a total usage of nearly 130% and seems bearish on their ability to figure out how to share the ball properly. Specifically, he says " It's pretty to think that everyone will sacrifice and become more efficient, but this exact problem is why super teams of the past have failed (See: 2012-13 Los Angeles Lakers). And the Nets are banking on a first-year coach with zero experience on the bench at any level to figure this out."

Of course, this reminds me of Eli's usage research. If I did my math right, those five have a projected O Rating of about 110, but when you factor in their high individual usages the regression predicts an actual ORtg of more like 115-116. That would be a solid 4th on the default bball-reference best offensive line-up list: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... der_by=pts .

Opinions on how this turns out?

[DSMok1]

Starting lineup will be great when healthy, probably top 3 in the league.

Bench = bad. Health = bad. Outlook = bad.

Does that sound familiar?

[Neil Paine]

Here were last year's top teams in terms of the sum of their top 5 minute-earners' ASPMs:

Code: Select all

Year    Tm      totASPM Players
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2013    OKC     +16.8   Kevin Durant (+6.8); Russell Westbrook (+5.9); Serge Ibaka (+1.7); Thabo Sefolosha (+2.1); Kevin Martin (+0.3)
2013    SAS     +16.3   Danny Green (+1.5); Tony Parker (+4.9); Tim Duncan (+4.3); Tiago Splitter (+2.3); Kawhi Leonard (+3.4)
2013    MIA     +15.9   LeBron James (+9.6); Chris Bosh (+1.6); Dwyane Wade (+4.7); Mario Chalmers (+0.5); Ray Allen (-0.5)
2013    LAC     +14.5   Blake Griffin (+3.7); Chris Paul (+7.4); Jamal Crawford (+0.3); Matt Barnes (+1.4); DeAndre Jordan (+1.7)
2013    IND     +10.2   Paul George (+3.2); George Hill (+2.5); David West (+3.0); Lance Stephenson (+0.9); Roy Hibbert (+0.5)
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Year    Tm      totASPM Players
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2013    NYK     +10.0   J.R. Smith (+1.2); Carmelo Anthony (+3.6); Raymond Felton (+0.1); Tyson Chandler (+2.9); Jason Kidd (+2.1)
2013    MEM     +9.5    Marc Gasol (+3.5); Mike Conley (+3.9); Zach Randolph (+1.0); Tony Allen (+1.4); Jerryd Bayless (-0.2)
2013    HOU     +7.5    James Harden (+4.8); Chandler Parsons (+1.2); Jeremy Lin (+0.8); Omer Asik (+0.4); Carlos Delfino (+0.2)
2013    DEN     +6.6    Andre Iguodala (+1.3); Ty Lawson (+1.9); Danilo Gallinari (+1.0); Kenneth Faried (+2.4); Andre Miller (+0.0)
2013    CHI     +6.4    Luol Deng (+0.2); Carlos Boozer (+0.6); Joakim Noah (+2.2); Jimmy Butler (+1.3); Nate Robinson (+2.1)
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Year    Tm      totASPM Players
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2013    BRK     +6.2    Deron Williams (+3.1); Joe Johnson (-0.6); Brook Lopez (+2.1); Gerald Wallace (+0.2); Reggie Evans (+1.4)
2013    LAL     +5.7    Kobe Bryant (+4.7); Dwight Howard (+1.9); Metta World Peace (+0.5); Jodie Meeks (-1.3); Pau Gasol (-0.1)
2013    ATL     +5.6    Al Horford (+2.2); Josh Smith (+1.1); Jeff Teague (+1.1); Kyle Korver (+1.3); Devin Harris (-0.1)
2013    DAL     +5.6    O.J. Mayo (-0.2); Darren Collison (+0.7); Vince Carter (+1.5); Shawn Marion (+1.6); Dirk Nowitzki (+2.0)
2013    UTA     +5.4    Al Jefferson (+2.5); Paul Millsap (+2.5); Randy Foye (-1.0); Gordon Hayward (+0.4); Derrick Favors (+0.9)
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Year    Tm      totASPM Players
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2013    POR     +4.2    Damian Lillard (+0.4); Nicolas Batum (+0.8); LaMarcus Aldridge (+1.6); Wesley Matthews (+0.4); J.J. Hickson (+0.9)
2013    MIL     +4.1    Monta Ellis (+1.2); Brandon Jennings (+0.8); Ersan Ilyasova (+1.2); Mike Dunleavy (-0.9); Larry Sanders (+1.8)
2013    GSW     +4.1    Stephen Curry (+4.3); Klay Thompson (-0.5); David Lee (+1.8); Jarrett Jack (+0.2); Harrison Barnes (-1.7)
2013    NOH     +3.7    Greivis Vasquez (+0.4); Ryan Anderson (-0.0); Robin Lopez (-0.0); Al-Farouq Aminu (+0.6); Anthony Davis (+2.8)
2013    BOS     +1.0    Paul Pierce (+2.1); Jeff Green (-0.9); Brandon Bass (-1.1); Jason Terry (-1.1); Kevin Garnett (+1.9)
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Year    Tm      totASPM Players
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2013    TOR     +0.8    DeMar DeRozan (-0.7); Amir Johnson (+2.0); Kyle Lowry (+2.0); Alan Anderson (-2.1); Jonas Valanciunas (-0.3)
2013    PHO     +0.8    Goran Dragic (+1.6); Luis Scola (-0.1); Jared Dudley (-0.0); P.J. Tucker (-0.8); Marcin Gortat (+0.1)
2013    MIN     +0.5    Luke Ridnour (-0.5); Andrei Kirilenko (+2.1); Dante Cunningham (-0.2); Nikola Pekovic (+0.9); Derrick Williams (-1.7)
2013    PHI     +0.2    Jrue Holiday (+0.9); Evan Turner (-1.8); Thaddeus Young (+2.2); Spencer Hawes (-1.2); Dorell Wright (+0.1)
2013    SAC     -0.5    DeMarcus Cousins (+1.3); Jason Thompson (-1.0); John Salmons (-2.0); Isaiah Thomas (+0.1); Tyreke Evans (+1.1)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year    Tm      totASPM Players
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2013    CLE     -3.2    Tristan Thompson (-0.5); Alonzo Gee (-1.6); Kyrie Irving (+3.5); Tyler Zeller (-2.4); Dion Waiters (-2.1)
2013    WAS     -4.1    Martell Webster (+0.3); Emeka Okafor (-0.3); Bradley Beal (-0.6); Kevin Seraphin (-4.1); Nene Hilario (+0.6)
2013    CHA     -5.1    Kemba Walker (+1.4); Bismack Biyombo (-1.9); Gerald Henderson (-1.2); Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (-2.3); Ramon Sessions (-1.2)
2013    ORL     -6.1    Nikola Vucevic (+0.5); Arron Afflalo (-2.1); Jameer Nelson (-0.3); Maurice Harkless (-0.7); E'Twaun Moore (-3.4)
2013    DET     -7.4    Greg Monroe (+1.2); Brandon Knight (-2.5); Kyle Singler (-2.0); Rodney Stuckey (-2.2); Jason Maxiell (-2.0)
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BRK was +6.2, good for 11th. A Deron Williams (+3.1)-Joe Johnson (-0.6)-Paul Pierce (+2.1)-Kevin Garnett (+1.9)-Brook Lopez (+2.1) core would have been +8.6, 7th best in the league, but some distance from Memphis at #6 w/ +9.5 and nowhere near the elite cores. Also, it goes without saying that at least 3 of those guys (if not 4 w/ Williams being 29 next year) figure to suffer some kind of age-related decline, and like Daniel said -- injuries are a concern (who says that 5 is even their top 5 in MP?) and their bench won't be very good.

[AcrossTheCourt]

Well, I updated Eli's study with a few complete seasons. For usage I looked at the average usage of the lineup. I found coefficients that ranged from 0.8 to 1 points per 100 possessions for every 1 unit increase of average lineup usage.

Looking at the trade, you basically have three low usage guys in Gerald Wallace, Humphries, and Bogans being traded for Pierce and Garnett. (I'm basically assuming Brooks and Terry cancel each other out since they're both shoot-first gunners.) This works well strangely well: the sum of Pierce and Garnett's minutes is 4597, and the sum of those other three guys is 4675.

For the pre-trade Nets, you have Deron/Johnson/Wallace/Bogans/Humphries/Lopez. The average usage of that group weighted by minutes is 20.66 (without the weighting it's 19.45.) The average offensive efficiency (via b-ref) weighted by usage is 110.7.

Post-trade, you have Deron/Johnson/Pierce/Garnett/Lopez. Average usage is now 25.23. Offensive efficiency (projected) is 110.2, so it actually goes down. However, the usage increases by 4.57 (yes, only looking at those players, but this is more of a thought experiment....) An increase of that magnitude has huge effects: from 3.8 to 4.6 points per 100 possessions. That's the degree of separation between the league leading Heat and Thunder and ... the Nets as well as teams like the Lakers.

However, this is only looking at part of their roster, so the overall effect on the team will be like half that (I think.)

Additionally, those coefficients are for the *average* increase in efficiency, and they assume the players will have the same numbers as last season. For the latter point, this will not be true given their ages. For the former, there are a number of factors that change this, and a lot these have to do with "fit." But Garnett and Pierce proved they could fit well with other stars very quickly, and I think fit is largely determined by, basically, passing and spacing. This team will do very well in that regard, as even Lopez has an outside jumper and the center is the only one who doesn't pass well.

[Statman]

Well, I updated Eli's study with a few complete seasons. For usage I looked at the average usage of the lineup. I found coefficients that ranged from 0.8 to 1 points per 100 possessions for every 1 unit increase of average lineup usage.

Looking at the trade, you basically have three low usage guys in Gerald Wallace, Humphries, and Bogans being traded for Pierce and Garnett. (I'm basically assuming Brooks and Terry cancel each other out since they're both shoot-first gunners.) This works well strangely well: the sum of Pierce and Garnett's minutes is 4597, and the sum of those other three guys is 4675.

For the pre-trade Nets, you have Deron/Johnson/Wallace/Bogans/Humphries/Lopez. The average usage of that group weighted by minutes is 20.66 (without the weighting it's 19.45.) The average offensive efficiency (via b-ref) weighted by usage is 110.7.

Post-trade, you have Deron/Johnson/Pierce/Garnett/Lopez. Average usage is now 25.23. Offensive efficiency (projected) is 110.2, so it actually goes down. However, the usage increases by 4.57 (yes, only looking at those players, but this is more of a thought experiment....) An increase of that magnitude has huge effects: from 3.8 to 4.6 points per 100 possessions. That's the degree of separation between the league leading Heat and Thunder and ... the Nets as well as teams like the Lakers.

However, this is only looking at part of their roster, so the overall effect on the team will be like half that (I think.)

Additionally, those coefficients are for the *average* increase in efficiency, and they assume the players will have the same numbers as last season. For the latter point, this will not be true given their ages. For the former, there are a number of factors that change this, and a lot these have to do with "fit." But Garnett and Pierce proved they could fit well with other stars very quickly, and I think fit is largely determined by, basically, passing and spacing. This team will do very well in that regard, as even Lopez has an outside jumper and the center is the only one who doesn't pass well.

They'll be coached by Jason Kidd - who doesn't have a great history of quality decisions off the court. I wouldn't trust him a ton as a "mentor" - let alone a coach. I think he'll do whatever KG tells him - even more so than his assistants. How long will it be before Williams stops listening to his buddy coach Kidd? Five minutes?

I don't have much faith in the Nets lineup - it feels like Lakers 2.0, and none of the players are as good as Kobe or Howard. Maybe KGs defense and toughness helps hold it together? Maybe a little of that rubs off on Lopez?

[JonCBK]

Setting aside the Kidd coach thing which I consider both a wild card and frankly a non-issue since he will do very little that is at odds with either Lawrence Frank or the various HoFers and All Stars on this team, I'm quite optimistic. This should work out much better than the Lakers since the Nets bench seems unlikely to be bad. It looks like Blatche is going to forgo the extra cash that he would have gotten elsewhere (offset is only 50% of payments over $800,000) and he will return. He and Reggie Evans create a formidable backup 4 and 5. Jason Terry can probably still be a serviceable backup 1 or 2. Finding another guard even at league minimum should be fairly easy. We are living in the "Age of PGs" where elite ones seem to grow on trees. Finally, I think Toko Shengalia is going to be fine as a backup SF. He absolutely dominated the D-league and since he played about 10 full games there we have a meaningful sample size. And he dominated the one NBA game where he got extended minutes (granted it was last game of the season, in garbage time against a Wizard team that was checked out). Mirza Teletovic might also find a way to adapt to NBA.

I'm optimistic.

[Crow]

Anyone know off-hand how many starters are on the court on average? I assume it is between 3 and 3.5 usually or even at most. The high sum of individual usage will mostly be an issue to think about / study when all 5 are on the court at the same time. They could do that a heck of a lot, a lot, or moderately or even lightly. There will probably be some impact on overall team season performance and playoff performance from this choice and how rigidly it is applied.

[JonCBK]

Nets Bench

If the rumors are true that the Nets are going to sign Kyle Korver, then their bench is going to be very good. A squad that features last year's new and improved A. Blatche, the unparalleled rebounding of Reggie Evans, and the elite three point shooting of Kyle Korver would be a solid squad. Add in Jason Terry to the mix and I think you have a pretty good four guys. Assuming another guard can be found (or Taylor develops) and I'd say this bench mob could easily give a number of NBA starting squads all they could handle.

[Mike G]

...how many starters are on the court on average? I assume it is between 3 and 3.5...

If the average starter plays 32 of 48 minutes, or 2/3 of the game, then there are 6.66 of 10 on the court, on avg. That's 3.33 per team.

[AcrossTheCourt]

I'm really surprised they retained Blatche for so cheap. He's another high usage guy, so now they have lots of lineups available with high usage guys (including Terry, I guess.) Of course, most of their usage rates will go down playing together, but Reggie Evans could serve as a nice contrast and for comparison (lineups with Evans substituted for Lopez, for example) since Evans is an extremely shot-averse player.

[Bobbofitos]

apparently korver deal was nixed

[AcrossTheCourt]

Well, now the Nets have Kirilenko. There's even more ammunition. This will be a really fun team to project. It'd be a nice little side contest.

[JonCBK]

AK gives them a great glue guy that doesn't need the ball or to be the focus of plays to contribute. Also he helps on the defensive side quite a bit. A team with Garnett and AK on the floor should be good at defense. Also a healthy (post All Star Break) DWill will be improved as well. And while Pierce, Garnett, Kirilenko and Johnson will be a year older and thereby worse, Lopez should still be getting better.

[Crow]

...how many starters are on the court on average? I assume it is between 3 and 3.5...

If the average starter plays 32 of 48 minutes, or 2/3 of the game, then there are 6.66 of 10 on the court, on avg. That's 3.33 per team.

Of guys who started 65+ games last season, only 56 averaged a full 32+ minutes per game. http://bkref.com/tiny/Q7pi0
Only 93 averaged 24+ minutes, barely 3 per team.

Relax the games started standard to 40+ and those averaging a full 32+ minutes per game barely budges to 63. Those who averaged 24+ minutes increased to 135 or barely 4 per team.

So the average number of long-term starters on the court will be less than the static abstract 3.33 calculated due to starter changes and injuries and many playing less than 32 minutes per game, often 25+% less minutes.


There was only about 10 pairs of players who played more than 30 minutes per game together for the whole season. http://bkref.com/tiny/Qc8yY On average teams had about 4 pairs who are on the court together for 20+ minutes per game.