Have patience, we're good enough to win title wo big change?

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Crow
Posts: 10624
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Have patience, we're good enough to win title wo big change?

Post by Crow »

You hear that refrain a lot; so I thought some background analysis of recent title winners and teams that fell just short might be worth a try.

I looked at the number of fairly major and minor moves the last five (first time) title-winners made in the two years before the victory (draft, free agents, trades). I found they made almost 17 total moves, 8 of which I quickly and loosely called fairly major (had some impact, played 15+ minutes per game or so). So the teams that win titles make a lot of moves in the two years before the title.

Then I looked at OKC, Orlando and Cleveland (last three teams to get to finals but not win a title, yet). They made an average of about 14 moves, only 6 of which were fairly major. So the teams that fell short made fewer moves and fewer fairly major moves than the title-winners. But they still made a lot of moves. So there is not a good basis for saying they were standing pat, showing simple patience. They made moves. But maybe not enough and enough major ones.

Presti, is tied (for last 2 yrs) with Ferry and Kupchak for fewest major moves but nearly made as many minor moves as the titlewinners.
Crow
Posts: 10624
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Have patience, we're good enough?

Post by Crow »

After some feedback elsewhere and some further thinking prompted by the roster minutes, it might be good to redo this focused on moves affecting the top 6-7 guys and maybe weighting the score by player quality and minutes (using warp or another metric).
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