position dominance in NBA, historic

[Mike G]

In NBA history, Centers have accounted for about 300 player-seasons with at least 8.2 Win Shares. We can call these All-Star candidate seasons -- all-NBA in the earlier years. Forwards have had about 600 such seasons, Guards about 500.
Summing by position each year, here's the annual percentage of Win Shares (from these star players) attributed to each position, in the shot clock era:

Code: Select all

year     C     F     G         yr      C     F     G         yr      C     F     G
1955    52    48     0        1975    38    44    18        1995    24    42    35
1956    42    47    11        1976    39    24    37        1996    14    37    48
1957    23    57    20        1977    36    45    19        1997    10    37    53
1958    26    60    14        1978    47    30    23        1998    18    38    44
1959    18    60    21        1979    36    32    32        1999            
1960    31    55    14        1980    34    35    31        2000    18    38    44
1961    28    56    15        1981    34    40    26        2001    10    43    47
1962    32    34    34        1982    31    41    28        2002    12    48    40
1963    36    39    26        1983    37    38    25        2003     8    57    35
1964    38    33    29        1984    30    47    23        2004    12    55    33
1965    41    23    35        1985    31    36    33        2005    12    50    38
1966    42    15    43        1986    26    45    28        2006     9    49    42
1967    36    39    25        1987    20    50    31        2007     3    49    48
1968    35    31    34        1988    17    32    51        2008    11    45    45
1969    30    38    32        1989    20    35    45        2009     8    45    47
1970    20    43    38        1990    14    45    41        2010    11    55    34
1971    26    33    41        1991    18    39    44        2011    12    57    31
1972    29    39    33        1992    13    47    39        2012    19    58    23
1973    34    26    41        1993    25    40    35        2013    15    43    42
1974    31    54    15        1994    25    51    24        2014    17    45    38

A "normal" year would have a 20-40-40 distribution. But such years are rare.
Other than 1955, centers peaked in 1978 -- one year after the NBA-ABA merger: Kareem, Gilmore, Issel, McAdoo, Cowens, Lanier, Webster, Paultz, and Walton make the list.
I didn't scale up for 1999 and 2012. In '99, too few qualify to be meaningful, but there's obviously no watershed occurance.

[Mike G]

Here's a smoothed-out version. These are 3-year averages of the (above) table, of listed year plus previous and subsequent season.

Code: Select all

year     C     F     G        year     C     F     G        year     C     F     G
1948    34    29    37        1971    25    38    37        1993    21    46    33
1949    41    19    39        1972    29    32    38        1994    24    44    31
1950    53    24    23        1973    31    39    30        1995    21    43    36
1951    43    39    18        1974    34    41    25        1996    16    39    45
1952    41    42    17        1975    36    41    24        1997    14    37    48
1953    39    37    24        1976    38    38    25        1998    15    38    47
1954    47    33    20        1977    41    33    26       (1999)   25    44    31
1955    48    39    13        1978    40    36    25        2000    15    40    45
1956    39    51    10        1979    39    32    29        2001    13    43    44
1957    30    55    15        1980    34    36    30        2002    10    49    41
1958    22    59    19        1981    33    39    29        2003    11    53    36
1959    25    59    17        1982    34    40    27        2004    11    54    35
1960    26    57    17        1983    33    42    25        2005    11    52    37
1961    30    48    21        1984    33    40    27        2006     8    49    43
1962    32    43    25        1985    29    43    28        2007     8    48    45
1963    35    35    30        1986    26    44    31        2008     7    46    47
1964    38    32    30        1987    21    42    37        2009    10    48    42
1965    41    24    36        1988    19    39    42        2010    10    53    37
1966    40    26    34        1989    17    37    46        2011    14    57    29
1967    38    28    34        1990    17    39    43        2012    15    53    32
1968    34    36    30        1991    15    44    41        2013    17    49    34
1969    28    37    35        1992    19    42    39        2014    16    44    40
1970    25    38    37                                        

Now there are clear ebbs and flows in positional strength.
1999 is still an anomaly, as only 4 players made the cut: Shaq, Malone, Duncan and Robinson.
The balance of power shifted away from centers almost every season from 1977 to 1991. Then Shaq, Mutombo, and Mourning created a brief revival.

[Crow]

So by this aren't we in an era lead by the forwards, not the guards? Can / will you break out pgs? Are they running the league by this measure?

[Mike G]

Players in the 2014 group with 8.2 or more WS:

Code: Select all

guards                     forwards                 centers
Stephen Curry   13.4      Kevin Durant   19.2      Joakim Noah    11.2
James Harden    12.8      LeBron James   15.9      DeAndre Jordan 11.1
Chris Paul      12.2      Kevin Love     14.3      Andre Drummond  9.9
Kyle Lowry      11.7      Blake Griffin  12.2      Robin Lopez     9.5
Goran Dragic    10.3      Dirk Nowitzki  10.9         
Damian Lillard   9.6      Paul George    10.8         
DeMar DeRozan    8.8     Carmelo Anthony 10.7         
Mike Conley      8.2      Anthony Davis  10.4         
Wesley Matthews  8.2      Serge Ibaka     9.6   

There aren't more F than G here, but they're better.
Going down to 7 WS, we see another 6 C, 8 F, and just 4 G