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2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:19 pm
by Mike G
GSW 4, NOP 0
Code: Select all
. Warriors mpg e484 eW WS ws/48 PER
Draymond Green 41.5 1.76 .59 .70 .203 21.0
Stephen Curry 39.8 2.62 .85 .87 .263 28.0
Klay Thompson 37.8 1.48 .45 .55 .176 21.1
Harrison Barnes 31.5 .72 .18 .35 .133 14.5
Andre Iguodala 28.0 .11 .03 .11 .047 7.5
Andrew Bogut 27.8 1.11 .25 .32 .137 15.6
Shaun Livingston 15.8 .27 .03 .15 .117 12.0
Leandro Barbosa 12.3 .23 .02 .02 .015 10.8
Marreese Speights 7.0 .80 .05 -.06 -.096 6.8
Festus Ezeli 4.8 .34 .01 -.03 -.065 5.4
. totals 246 1.23 2.47 2.99 .146 17.4
. Pelicans mpg e484 eW WS ws/48 PER
Anthony Davis 43.0 2.13 .74 .65 .180 28.1
Eric Gordon 35.8 .69 .20 .02 .008 14.3
Tyreke Evans 31.3 .62 .16 -.09 -.036 10.6
Quincy Pondexter 31.0 .42 .11 .16 .063 11.5
Norris Cole 26.5 -.36 -.08 -.26 -.119 3.6
Ryan Anderson 23.8 .69 .13 .15 .078 15.9
Omer Asik 19.8 .31 .05 .00 .001 9.3
Dante Cunningham 18.8 .78 .12 .30 .194 19.7
Jrue Holiday 13.8 .44 .05 -.03 -.027 13.4
Alexis Ajinca 2.5 2.45 .05 .08 .364 41.7
. totals 246 .77 1.53 .98 .048 15.1
Cle 4, Bos 0
Code: Select all
. Celtics mpg e484 eWins WS ws/48 PER
Avery Bradley 33.3 .17 .05 -.04 -.015 8.1
Isaiah Thomas 29.8 1.40 .35 .10 .042 17.6
Evan Turner 29.5 1.03 .25 -.05 -.020 11.0
Jae Crowder 25.0 1.22 .25 .32 .152 18.9
Marcus Smart 22.5 .62 .12 .09 .047 12.5
Tyler Zeller 22.5 .67 .13 .06 .034 12.3
Brandon Bass 21.5 .28 .05 -.04 -.020 8.9
Jared Sullinger 20.0 1.62 .27 .19 .116 21.4
Jonas Jerebko 17.0 -.24 -.03 -.10 -.069 3.2
Kelly Olynyk 13.3 .26 .03 .04 .032 9.6
Luigi Datome 3.5 -.33 -.01 -.04 -.121 -.7
Phil Pressey 1.3 .15 .00 -.06 -.532 -6.9
. totals 239.0 .73 1.45 .49 .024 12.3
. Cavs mpg e484 eWins WS ws/48 PER
LeBron James 43.0 2.30 .82 .55 .154 22.4
Kyrie Irving 40.5 1.79 .60 .84 .248 21.7
Iman Shumpert 29.0 .51 .12 .50 .206 13.9
Kevin Love 26.8 1.87 .42 .48 .214 19.5
J.R. Smith 26.8 .69 .15 .26 .115 12.0
Tristan Thompson 25.5 .75 .16 .48 .227 17.1
Timofey Mozgov 24.5 1.50 .31 .36 .175 18.7
James Jones 11.5 -.36 -.03 .00 .002 1.8
Matt Dellavedova 10.8 -.15 -.01 -.03 -.037 1.1
Kendrick Perkins 1.5 -.52 -.01 -.01 -.043 6.6
. totals 239.8 1.28 2.55 3.42 .171 16.8
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Sun May 03, 2015 11:45 am
by Mike G
Stars of the first round
Code: Select all
eW/G per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.212 Stephen Curry GSW 40 .603 35.3 5.1 6.7 2.8 1.2 3.8 .0 2.62
.206 LeBron James Cle 43 .522 25.1 7.6 6.8 1.7 1.9 4.1 1.3 2.30
.192 Blake Griffin LAC 41 .515 20.9 11.2 7.1 2.3 1.3 2.6 1.3 2.28
.186 Anthony Davis NOP 43 .600 27.2 9.1 1.5 2.5 1.1 2.9 2.5 2.13
.177 Jimmy Butler Chi 42 .589 27.1 4.7 4.1 1.3 2.2 2.2 .7 2.09
.174 James Harden Hou 36 .634 31.4 3.6 7.9 3.1 1.2 4.0 .2 2.33
.165 Marc Gasol Mem 38 .510 21.0 8.6 5.1 2.3 .4 1.2 2.3 2.06
.157 Chris Paul LAC 39 .624 23.4 4.1 7.6 2.9 1.9 2.3 .4 1.94
.154 Marcin Gortat Was 31 .726 26.6 12.1 3.4 3.5 .9 2.8 2.3 2.43
.151 Kyrie Irving Cle 41 .567 23.1 4.5 4.6 2.9 .9 1.1 .9 1.79
eW/G per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.149 Pau Gasol Chi 35 .530 20.4 12.4 4.9 2.3 .5 3.0 2.5 2.14
.149 Draymond Green GSW 42 .558 14.5 11.9 5.6 3.5 2.2 2.2 1.1 1.76
.142 Tim Duncan SAS 36 .584 19.2 11.4 3.5 3.8 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.94
.135 Dwight Howard Hou 33 .550 17.8 14.5 1.4 4.3 1.8 2.8 3.4 1.98
.128 Derrick Rose Chi 37 .521 22.7 4.3 8.6 1.8 1.5 4.6 .5 1.73
.127 John Wall Was 38 .507 17.0 4.0 11.7 1.9 .7 3.3 1.0 1.65
.121 Paul Millsap Atl 37 .522 15.9 9.6 3.6 2.8 2.2 1.2 1.2 1.57
.114 LaMarcus Aldridge Por 42 .419 16.3 9.7 1.6 2.8 .3 1.4 2.1 1.32
.114 Klay Thompson GSW 38 .610 25.3 3.3 2.0 2.2 .7 1.7 1.2 1.48
.112 DeMarre Carroll Atl 35 .665 21.8 7.5 3.1 3.2 .9 1.3 .2 1.54
eW/G per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.109 Al Horford Atl 33 .494 16.1 11.2 4.7 2.8 1.1 2.4 1.3 1.59
.109 Monta Ellis Dal 39 .537 21.9 3.0 4.5 3.3 1.9 3.1 .6 1.33
.108 Kawhi Leonard SAS 36 .561 21.4 7.6 2.7 2.6 1.2 2.3 .6 1.47
.106 Brook Lopez Brk 39 .556 18.2 8.3 .8 2.8 .6 1.0 2.0 1.30
.104 Courtney Lee Mem 34 .761 26.3 2.8 1.6 2.4 1.3 .9 .0 1.49
.104 Kevin Love Cle 27 .564 22.3 9.7 4.1 4.2 .3 2.1 .7 1.87
.100 Dirk Nowitzki Dal 36 .541 19.0 9.8 2.2 3.2 .4 2.1 .4 1.33
.098 Kyle Korver Atl 38 .620 16.3 5.7 3.1 1.0 1.6 .9 1.0 1.23
.097 Josh Smith Hou 26 .561 23.6 8.1 5.5 4.3 1.1 4.2 1.1 1.82
.093 Bradley Beal Was 42 .497 18.0 4.7 3.4 1.7 1.3 2.1 .6 1.10
These are not adjusted for strength of opponent.
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Sun May 03, 2015 12:32 pm
by Mike G
Series by series, some summary stats for comparison.
Code: Select all
. Hou Min e484 PER WS/48 Dal Min e484 PER WS/48
Ariza 183 .20 6.8 .022 Ellis 197 1.33 19.3 .093
Harden 180 2.33 27.0 .266 Nowitzki 181 1.33 17.8 .113
Howard 163 1.98 22.6 .166 Chandler 160 .84 17.3 .146
Brewer 129 .70 14.8 .092 Barea 154 .85 13.5 .040
Smith 128 1.82 21.6 .118 Aminu 150 1.16 20.3 .199
Jones 127 1.10 15.8 .108 Stoudemire 75 .52 11.1 -.010
Terry 124 .41 11.2 .090 Harris 74 -.13 5.7 -.030
Prigioni 107 -.12 5.9 .023 Jefferson 51 -.43 3.4 -.030
Capela 44 1.57 22.1 .215 Villanueva 43 1.62 24.4 .257
. Rondo 37 .66 11.4 .010
. Parsons 37 -.09 2.8 -.116
. Felton 36 .38 7.4 -.037
. Mem Min e484 PER WS/48 Por Min e484 PER WS/48
Gasol 192 2.06 23.1 .206 Batum 209 .71 11.0 .021
Randolph 176 .65 8.2 -.044 Aldridge 208 1.32 16.5 .031
Lee 168 1.49 21.9 .267 Lillard 201 1.01 14.7 .038
Allen 150 .92 15.8 .187 McCollum 166 .86 15.9 .103
Green 126 .71 8.7 -.017 Lopez 117 .36 11.5 .111
Calathes 83 .93 12.2 .057 Leonard 106 1.41 19.5 .232
Udrih 82 1.68 22.4 .212 Afflalo 60 -.79 -5.1 -.183
Conley 79 1.89 23.3 .192 Blake 43 -.20 2.8 -.090
Carter 76 .83 16.3 .163 Crabbe 39 .63 14.9 .146
Koufos 62 .75 17.5 .226 Kaman 37 .55 11.6 .056
. GSW Min e484 PER WS/48 NOP Min e484 PER WS/48
Green 166 1.76 21.0 .204 Davis 172 2.13 28.2 .181
Curry 159 2.62 28.1 .265 Gordon 143 .69 14.4 .008
Thompson 151 1.48 21.1 .177 Evans 125 .62 10.6 -.036
Barnes 126 .72 14.5 .133 Pondexter 124 .42 11.6 .062
Iguodala 112 .11 7.5 .047 Cole 106 -.36 3.6 -.120
Bogut 111 1.11 15.6 .136 Anderson 95 .69 16.0 .078
Livingston 63 .27 12.1 .117 Asik 79 .31 9.4 .000
Barbosa 49 .23 10.9 .015 Cunningham 75 .78 19.8 .194
Speights 28 .80 6.9 -.096 Holiday 55 .44 13.4 -.027
Ezeli 19 .34 5.4 -.065 Ajinca 10 2.45 41.9 .365
. LAC Min e484 PER WS/48 SAS Min e484 PER WS/48
Griffin 288 2.28 26.0 .186 Duncan 250 1.94 24.0 .228
Paul 275 1.94 25.4 .233 Leonard 250 1.47 19.7 .141
Redick 274 .12 9.4 .034 Parker 210 .38 6.3 -.066
Jordan 252 1.23 18.2 .137 Green 204 .43 10.4 .054
Barnes 197 .40 10.8 .060 Diaw 198 1.05 16.3 .126
Crawford 181 .26 8.8 -.040 Ginobili 131 1.30 16.9 .116
Rivers 99 .13 9.4 -.005 Splitter 123 .25 6.9 -.003
Davis 85 .11 7.5 -.003 Belinelli 116 1.21 20.5 .214
Turkoglu 24 -.47 1.0 -.073 Mills 112 1.54 23.2 .261
. Baynes 40 -.33 1.2 -.054
. Bonner 36 -.45 -2.4 -.086
. Joseph 22 .60 17.1 .123
. Chi Min e484 PER WS/48 Mil Min e484 PER WS/48
Butler 253 2.09 22.3 .270 Middleton 232 .59 12.6 .040
Rose 220 1.73 15.3 .127 Antetok'po 201 .64 10.8 -.002
Gasol 208 2.14 19.5 .213 C-Williams 191 .81 11.3 -.032
Noah 201 1.22 13.8 .182 Mayo 156 .44 10.1 .016
Dunleavy 181 1.17 14.2 .224 Henson 153 .90 17.3 .087
Gibson 130 .87 14.1 .152 Ilyasova 142 .30 7.8 -.045
Snell 99 -.15 4.0 .052 Pachulia 129 1.08 15.3 .087
Mirotic 82 .45 6.8 .051 Bayless 120 .48 12.0 .060
Brooks 70 .63 8.4 .072 Dudley 110 .78 17.0 .143
Hinrich 29 -.16 5.2 .094
. Atl Min e484 PER WS/48 Brk Min e484 PER WS/48
Korver 229 1.23 17.8 .188 Johnson 249 .95 14.0 .089
Millsap 221 1.57 19.4 .183 Lopez 234 1.30 20.9 .181
Carroll 210 1.54 20.8 .238 Bogdanovic 206 .14 8.1 .016
Horford 198 1.59 18.0 .125 Williams 192 .99 12.7 .039
Teague 189 1.40 16.3 .096 Young 190 .55 10.4 -.011
Schroder 112 .56 8.9 -.066 Jack 153 1.18 17.4 .089
Bazemore 106 -.07 4.7 .000 Anderson 142 .93 17.6 .145
Antic 95 .54 13.3 .182 Plumlee 49 .24 10.4 .073
Scott 66 .41 12.1 .077
Mack 24 1.05 18.2 .170
. Was Min e484 PER WS/48 Tor Min e484 PER WS/48
Beal 167 1.10 15.3 .143 DeRozan 159 1.02 15.4 -.008
Wall 152 1.65 19.9 .223 Lowry 131 .49 7.9 -.114
Porter 128 .84 15.3 .191 Johnson 112 .98 15.9 .089
Gortat 125 2.43 27.8 .318 Ross 107 .08 7.6 -.015
Pierce 114 1.57 19.6 .244 Patterson 106 .73 16.6 .126
Hilario 97 .88 11.7 .108 Valanciunas 106 1.20 17.2 .079
Gooden 82 1.32 15.7 .140 Williams 102 .57 11.4 -.044
Sessions 66 .77 12.2 .162 Vasquez 101 .15 7.8 -.008
Seraphin 33 1.48 15.9 .125 Hansbrough 48 -.21 3.4 -.039
. Cle Min e484 PER WS/48 Bos Min e484 PER WS/48
James 172 2.30 22.4 .155 Bradley 133 .17 8.1 -.016
Irving 162 1.79 21.8 .249 Thomas 119 1.40 17.6 .043
Shumpert 116 .51 14.0 .206 Turner 118 1.03 11.0 -.020
Love 107 1.87 19.5 .215 Crowder 100 1.22 19.0 .153
Smith 107 .69 12.0 .115 Smart 90 .62 12.6 .047
Thompson 102 .75 17.2 .227 Zeller 90 .67 12.3 .033
Mozgov 98 1.50 18.8 .176 Bass 86 .28 8.9 -.021
Jones 46 -.36 1.8 .001 Sullinger 80 1.62 21.5 .117
Dellavedova 43 -.15 1.2 -.038 Jerebko 68 -.24 3.2 -.071
. Olynyk 53 .26 9.7 .032
Some first round correlations between MPG and other stats:
Code: Select all
corr rate corr rate
.55 e484 .19 Reb
.48 PER .15 TO
.42 Pts .14 TS%
.30 Ast .13 Blk
.30 WS/48 .03 3s
.20 Stl -.47 PF
These are per minute rates.
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 8:53 pm
by Mike G
Now that BPM is on the board, here are playoff leaders ranked by the product of 6 summary stats.
After 2 games of round 2.
Code: Select all
'15 playoffs tm Min PER e480 eWins WS WS/48 BPM
Blake Griffin LAC 369 25.8 2.38 1.83 1.53 .199 8.4
Jimmy Butler Chi 332 21.8 1.83 1.27 1.62 .234 6.9
Chris Paul LAC 275 24.5 1.94 1.10 1.32 .231 7.2
James Harden Hou 252 25.4 2.14 1.12 1.20 .229 6.5
Stephen Curry GSW 238 24.4 2.28 1.13 1.07 .216 7.4
Tim Duncan SAS 250 24.0 1.94 .99 1.19 .228 7.7
Marc Gasol Mem 261 22.5 1.97 1.07 1.10 .203 6.2
Kyrie Irving Cle 241 22.9 1.75 .88 1.22 .242 5.4
LeBron James Cle 248 23.8 2.45 1.26 .76 .147 7.3
DeMarre Carroll Atl 287 21.2 1.56 .93 1.40 .234 5.2
'15 playoffs tm Min PER e480 eWins WS WS/48 BPM
Pau Gasol Chi 271 20.4 2.01 1.13 1.12 .199 4.3
Marcin Gortat Was 194 22.6 1.75 .71 .97 .240 7.4
Dwight Howard Hou 238 23.6 2.05 1.02 .90 .181 4.7
Anthony Davis NOP 172 28.3 2.13 .74 .65 .182 5.3
Paul Millsap Atl 298 19.5 1.56 .97 1.05 .169 5.2
Draymond Green GSW 232 19.3 1.61 .78 .91 .189 7.3
DeAndre Jordan LAC 311 20.2 1.47 .95 1.19 .183 3.9
Al Horford Atl 262 20.0 1.73 .94 .81 .149 4.2
John Wall Was 191 21.5 1.67 .66 .82 .205 3.7
Patrick Mills SAS 112 23.2 1.54 .35 .61 .261 6.8
'15 playoffs tm Min PER e480 eWins WS WS/48 BPM
Kawhi Leonard SAS 250 19.7 1.47 .76 .74 .142 3.6
Courtney Lee Mem 236 18.1 1.05 .52 .98 .199 4.8
Brook Lopez Brk 234 20.9 1.30 .64 .88 .181 1.9
Al-Farouq Aminu Dal 150 20.3 1.16 .36 .62 .199 8.3
Kyle Korver Atl 307 15.6 1.03 .66 .99 .155 4.1
Iman Shumpert Cle 186 16.9 .96 .37 .84 .218 5.5
Otto Porter Was 193 16.8 .98 .40 .80 .198 6.1
Mike Dunleavy Chi 249 14.0 .95 .49 .95 .184 4.5
Tony Allen Mem 225 16.1 .79 .37 .83 .176 8.6
Derrick Rose Chi 296 15.3 1.60 .99 .60 .097 2.0
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Sun May 10, 2015 2:34 pm
by Mike G
Zach Randolph's 5 GameScores vs Portland ranged from 0.4 to 11.6
In 3 games vs GS, they've been 14.7 to 17.9
[His median GmSc in the season was 13.0]
Courtney Lee had 4 games vs the Blazers in the 15-17.4 range. These rank among his 11 best games all year.
In the RS, his median was 6.5 to 7; vs GS he's about his normal self.
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Tue May 12, 2015 9:45 pm
by Mike G
I think there are just 10 players who are in their first-ever 2nd-round playoff series, and who have gone at least 60 minutes thru 4 games.
Code: Select all
Player tm G MP GmSc e480
Austin Rivers LAC 4 101 11.9 1.53
Terrence Jones Hou 4 93 5.3 .43
Tristan Thompson Cle 4 143 9.6 .71
Matt Dellavedova Cle 4 87 5.2 .56
Kyrie Irving Cle 4 157 13.0 .97
Timofey Mozgov Cle 4 106 9.2 1.32
Mike Dunleavy Chi 4 140 8.0 .40
Dennis Schroder Atl 4 78 11.3 2.09
Pero Antic Atl 4 69 2.0 .04
DeMarre Carroll Atl 4 138 12.4 .96
There's a shortage of 'advanced stats' for ongoing or individual playoff series. One could extract them from their playoff totals if 1st round numbers were known.
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Tue May 12, 2015 10:02 pm
by Mike G
Leaders of the 2nd round, after 4 games by all teams.
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.85 LeBron James Cle 41 .437 23.2 10.8 10.3 1.6 5.6 1.0 2.52
.73 Blake Griffin LAC 36 .572 27.6 12.7 7.8 .5 4.6 .4 2.40
.70 Stephen Curry GSW 39 .533 25.6 4.2 7.1 1.6 3.5 .2 2.14
.61 Derrick Rose Chi 39 .483 24.1 5.0 6.6 .5 2.6 .4 1.87
.58 Marc Gasol Mem 36 .521 20.7 10.6 3.6 1.8 2.1 .2 1.96
.58 DeAndre Jordan LAC 31 .598 18.3 16.6 3.5 2.1 1.6 1.7 2.21
.54 Al Horford Atl 33 .485 17.7 11.6 6.0 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.98
.49 Bradley Beal Was 42 .513 21.2 4.6 5.2 1.8 2.9 .2 1.39
.48 Zach Randolph Mem 35 .583 21.9 9.5 3.2 .5 2.8 .0 1.66
.45 James Harden Hou 35 .645 25.4 4.8 7.8 1.3 6.1 .5 1.54
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.45 Jimmy Butler Chi 42 .497 17.4 4.4 2.5 2.8 1.1 .6 1.26
.41 Dwight Howard Hou 33 .511 15.8 12.4 1.7 1.1 1.5 2.8 1.52
.41 Paul Millsap Atl 32 .488 16.9 8.6 6.1 2.6 3.2 .9 1.56
.41 Jeff Teague Atl 33 .444 16.0 5.0 8.7 1.7 2.0 .3 1.47
.34 Draymond Green GSW 35 .510 15.2 9.0 4.9 2.3 4.7 .8 1.17
.34 Paul Pierce Was 31 .663 23.4 6.0 .9 .0 .6 .9 1.31
.34 Dennis Schroder Atl 20 .575 24.2 6.0 8.9 .4 1.3 .0 2.09
.32 Austin Rivers LAC 26 .681 25.7 4.2 3.1 2.1 3.0 .9 1.53
.32 Kyrie Irving Cle 40 .525 18.7 2.5 2.8 1.6 2.0 .4 .97
.31 Klay Thompson GSW 37 .541 18.1 4.4 3.8 1.2 3.7 1.0 1.01
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.31 Chris Paul LAC 12 .574 21.8 5.3 16.7 2.3 1.6 .0 3.00
.30 Jamal Crawford LAC 30 .481 17.5 4.8 5.0 2.6 2.8 .2 1.17
.29 Timofey Mozgov Cle 27 .528 14.0 10.2 1.9 1.0 1.5 2.5 1.32
.29 Pau Gasol Chi 21 .551 17.7 7.8 3.5 .9 1.6 2.5 1.64
.28 Demarre Carroll Atl 35 .602 19.4 5.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 .0 .96
.28 Otto Porter Was 34 .548 12.0 8.6 3.5 1.0 .3 .0 .98
.26 Andrew Bogut GSW 25 .600 7.6 13.2 4.0 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.24
.23 Harrison Barnes GSW 34 .625 15.1 5.4 1.7 .5 1.4 .8 .82
.22 J.J. Redick LAC 38 .722 21.4 .9 2.1 .5 2.1 .0 .69
.21 Tristan Thompson Cle 36 .620 9.2 10.8 .6 .0 .3 1.2 .71
.21 Mike Conley Mem 23 .524 17.8 1.2 6.2 1.2 2.0 .0 1.07
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Fri May 22, 2015 12:02 am
by Mike G
A couple of days late: leaders of the 2nd round
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.50 LeBron James Cle 41 .454 24.5 10.4 10.2 1.5 4.4 1.4 2.95
1.20 Blake Griffin LAC 38 .577 25.4 11.3 4.9 .5 3.7 .5 2.15
1.18 Stephen Curry GSW 38 .553 28.8 5.0 8.0 2.1 3.9 .2 2.49
.98 James Harden Hou 37 .576 24.9 5.2 8.1 1.4 5.3 .4 1.83
.90 DeAndre Jordan LAC 33 .586 15.0 14.4 1.9 2.2 1.2 2.0 1.89
.90 Dwight Howard Hou 34 .519 16.8 14.1 1.6 1.2 1.5 2.1 1.84
.89 Marc Gasol Mem 37 .464 18.3 11.2 3.8 1.3 1.7 1.0 1.91
.88 Al Horford Atl 35 .526 19.7 10.0 4.6 1.1 2.0 2.5 2.03
.86 Chris Paul LAC 24 .609 23.6 4.4 11.3 1.7 2.2 .0 2.42
.85 Bradley Beal Was 42 .517 23.7 4.8 4.2 1.5 2.7 .6 1.62
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.80 Derrick Rose Chi 39 .448 19.6 5.2 6.4 .8 2.3 .4 1.65
.69 Jimmy Butler Chi 42 .514 18.6 5.2 2.1 2.0 1.2 .5 1.30
.62 Jeff Teague Atl 33 .495 19.4 4.2 7.8 1.3 3.3 .4 1.48
.61 Demarre Carroll Atl 35 .606 20.7 6.5 1.5 1.4 1.1 .3 1.38
.59 Klay Thompson GSW 37 .572 20.9 4.9 4.1 .8 3.3 .7 1.26
.58 Draymond Green GSW 34 .510 15.4 9.2 5.8 2.0 3.6 .7 1.37
.57 Paul Millsap Atl 34 .468 17.2 8.5 4.5 1.6 3.7 1.1 1.34
.57 Kyrie Irving Cle 35 .571 21.5 2.4 3.2 1.4 2.1 .7 1.30
.53 Zach Randolph Mem 34 .551 19.4 9.3 2.4 .7 2.8 .0 1.23
.51 Trevor Ariza Hou 39 .609 15.2 6.0 2.4 2.0 1.8 .1 .90
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 11:27 am
by Mike G
Last night, LeBron again dragged his team to victory. Along with 18 boards, 13 Ast, and 3 Stl, he had 6 TO and needed 42 shots (TSA) to net 37 Pts.
After 13 games, his playoff rates vs his career PO avgs before:
Code: Select all
LeBron PER TS% FTr TRb% Ast% Stl% Blk% TO% Usg% WS/48 BPM
06-14 27.7 .578 .48 12.2 31.9 2.2 1.7 12.4 31.4 .242 10.4
2015 24.3 .490 .29 14.1 43.2 2.3 2.5 13.9 36.6 .168 9.3
Those are career low TS%, FTr; worst TO% and WS rate since first postseason.
Also career high Usg%, Ast%, and TReb%.
While his WS/48 takes a beating due to poor shooting and high TO, his BPM is largely unruffled -- thanks to massive Ast and Reb rates, we guess.
So missing his 2 co-stars, Love and Irving, he still has the East #1 seed on the brink of being swept.
Is he having a great postseason? or a terrible one (by his standards)?
His eWins/480 in 3 series have been 2.30 (vs Bos), 2.95 (Chi) and now 3.42 vs Atl -- all hella better than his WS rates. And getting stronger as needed.
In WS/48, the Cavs are led by Love (for 4 G), Irving, Smith, and Thompson; then LeBron, just ahead of Shumpert, James Jones, and Mozgov.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2015.html
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Tue May 26, 2015 12:37 pm
by Mike G
For his RS career, 70% of LeBron's Win Shares are attributed to his offense. And about 80% of his BPM is OBPM.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... sle01.html
In playoffs it's been about .68 and .72, respectively.
This postseason, his DWS are more than 50% of his total; BPM is 50/50 O/ D.
Cavs' playoff opponents' have seen sharp drops in their shooting from the RS:
Code: Select all
eff% RS vs Cle diff
Bos .516 .496 -.020
Chi .528 .485 -.043
Atl .556 .507 -.049
avg .533 .496
Effective shooting% = Pts/(2*fga + fta)
LeBron's shooting just .483 thru 13 games. Teammates are shooting .553
In the season, Cavs' opponents shot the league avg .535
Did losing Love make them this much better defensively?
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 2:25 pm
by Mike G
Can't seem to find it now, but a couple days ago I saw somewhere on b-r.com the Warriors given about 90% chance of winning the title.
Given their 10.0 SRS vs the 4.1 Cavs (regular season), that would indeed suggest a series expected to go 4 or 5 games.
But after 14 playoff games, we are seeing a different Cleveland team.
Here are their opponents' RS SRS, the series MOV, and the apparent SRS (opponent SRS + MOV) of the Cavs and Warriors in each series:
Code: Select all
Cleveland Golden State
opp mov srs Cle opp mov srs GSW
Bos 9.2 -.40 8.8 NOP 8.0 1.13 9.1
Chi 5.5 2.54 8.0 Mem 8.0 3.62 11.6
Atl 13.3 4.75 18.1 Hou 6.8 3.82 10.6
avg 9.3 2.30 11.6 avg 7.6 2.86 10.5
(Averages not weighted by games)
The Cavs have dominated each opposing team by several more points than expected by RS SRS.
The Warriors have mostly overachieved, but not by much.
Thompson and Mozgov have dominated inside, vs bigs who were not as healthy as Bogut and Ezeli.
EDIT -- weighted by games in each series, the imputed SRS are: Cle 11.12 - 10.62 GSW
-- Cavs' advantage is < half that seen in the table above (0.5 vs 1.1)
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Thu May 28, 2015 1:14 pm
by Mike G
Summary of each series' team stat category; listing the series winner's
advantage in each category: positive turnover differential is a good thing.
Code: Select all
rd Win Lose Pts Reb TS% TO
1 Hou Dal 4.2 -1.4 .022 -0.2
1 Mem Por 6.8 .4 .018 3.4
1 GSW NOP 8.0 4.1 .013 1.3
1 LAC SAS -.4 -1.5 .001 .3
1 Cle Bos 9.2 6.2 .047 -1.0
1 Was Tor 14.0 9.5 .086 -2.5
1 Atl Brk 5.5 1.2 .015 1.0
1 Chi Mil 12.3 6.1 .082 -4.3
rd Win Lose Pts Reb TS% TO
2 Atl Was 2.8 -1.8 .016 .3
2 Cle Chi 5.5 2.7 .045 -1.3
2 GSW Mem 8.0 .7 .082 -3.8
2 Hou LAC -3.2 3.7 -.017 -2.1
3 GSW Hou 8.2 7.6 .028 .4
3 Cle Atl 13.3 12.4 .036 -3.3
avg 6.7 3.6 .034 -0.9
In this sample of 14 series, point differential can be estimated by these other 3 differentials as:
Pts = Reb*0.67 + TS*152 + TO*0.95
Avg absolute error from this is 1.25, and the biggest one is Was vs Tor -- Wiz "should have" won by about 17 ppg, rather than 14, with that shooting and rebounding advantage.
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Thu May 28, 2015 4:42 pm
by Crow
The Cavs playoff defense is something I need to catch up on.
Every first round series loser got too little out of their guards and not even close to enough with possible exception with Spurs, but only their backups. In almost every case losing teams had 2 front line players who were alright or good. Part of this maybe the reliability of getting a good amount of defensive rebounds and more offensive rebound and putback opportunities.
So by some of Mike's other interesting stats that I am late in seeing, only half of first round winners won the boards and turnover battles. They also won ts% every time, though barely in Clips vs. Spurs, the best first round loser. In 2nd round, winner won 3 board and turnover battles. Rockets lost ts% to Clips. Boards and timing of production keyed their win. Conference finals had dominance. Hawks win of turnover battle hardly mattered against the rest.
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Thu May 28, 2015 5:06 pm
by Mike G
There's a minus-.63 correlation between TO and TS% (differentials)
Re: 2015 playoff summaries / notes
Posted: Thu May 28, 2015 5:10 pm
by Crow
One thing I haven't seen here or elsewhere is playoff ts% (or offensive rating) and usage by position, overall and winners and losers. I have a feeling there is a large gap between the ts% of guards / front line but perhaps a smaller one on offensive rating? How much of this is guard selfishness vs. the defense just makes it harder to get the ball to bigs or harder for them to actually use the possession? Are the winning teams tending to do better at this positional allocation of offense?