2016 stars and historic similars

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Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Mike G »

Scoring, rebounding, and assists are scaled to team and opponent averages.
Early Stl, Blk, TO are historic averages relative to known rates.
Nine players are shown with their closest rates to the 2015-16 player being compared. That player's difference from himself is zero.

Code: Select all

diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Stephen Curry   2016   35.1   5.5   7.8   2.2   2.3   3.5   .2
.32 Russell Westbrook 2015   32.0   7.4   8.8   2.8   2.2   4.3   .2
.35   LeBron James    2014   33.5   7.2   6.6   1.6   1.5   3.6   .3
.47   James Harden    2015   30.5   5.9   7.2   2.5   1.9   4.0   .8
.52   Kobe Bryant     2011   30.5   6.0   5.5   2.3   1.3   3.3   .2

.52   Michael Jordan  1990   34.6   7.2   5.7   2.9   2.7   2.9   .6
.54   Dwyane Wade     2006   29.5   6.0   6.9   2.7   1.8   3.4   .7
.56   Allen Iverson   2002   29.9   4.3   5.4   1.5   2.5   3.5   .2
.69   Tracy Mcgrady   2003   32.5   6.3   5.4   2.0   1.6   2.5   .8
.69   Manu Ginobili   2008   30.4   6.1   5.0   2.7   1.7   3.1   .5


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00 Russell Westbrook 2016   26.7   8.1  11.1   2.6   2.6   4.6   .3
.17   Magic Johnson   1989   24.3   8.0  11.6   2.2   1.8   4.0   .3
.40   Oscar Robertson 1964   26.5   6.5   9.4   3.1   2.7   4.1   .9
.68   Jason Kidd      2003   20.7   6.7   9.6   1.6   2.2   3.7   .3
.72   LeBron James    2011   29.4   7.9   7.6   2.0   1.5   3.5   .6

.77   Grant Hill      1997   23.9   9.8   7.7   2.2   1.7   3.1   .6
.77   Stephen Curry   2015   30.1   4.7   9.1   2.2   2.3   3.4   .3
.89   Tracy Mcgrady   2007   27.5   6.0   7.7   2.0   1.3   3.1   .5
.93   Jeremy Lin      2012   21.8   4.4   9.3   3.0   2.1   4.9   .4
.94   James Harden    2015   30.5   5.9   7.2   2.5   1.9   4.0   .8


diff   per-36 rates   yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   LeBron James   2016   28.4   7.7   6.8   2.0   1.4   3.3   .7
.10   Larry Bird     1987   28.4   8.9   6.6   2.4   1.7   3.1   .9
.16   Tracy Mcgrady  2007   27.5   6.0   7.7   2.0   1.3   3.1   .5
.18   Grant Hill     1999   24.6   8.0   6.8   2.3   1.6   3.7   .5
.21   Kobe Bryant    2003   28.9   6.7   5.5   2.5   2.0   3.3   .8

.21   Dwyane Wade    2006   29.5   6.0   6.9   2.7   1.8   3.4   .7
.27   Kevin Durant   2013   30.2   7.8   4.9   1.7   1.4   3.3  1.2
.28   James Harden   2015   30.5   5.9   7.2   2.5   1.9   4.0   .8
.29   Clyde Drexler  1992   25.8   6.7   6.4   3.1   1.9   3.2   .9
.30   Manu Ginobili  2007   26.0   6.3   6.0   2.7   1.9   2.7   .5


diff   per-36 rates   yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00   Kevin Durant   2016   29.5   8.4   4.8   1.7   1.0   3.1   1.2
.16   LeBron James   2008   30.5   7.9   5.8   2.0   1.6   3.0   1.0
.21   Dwyane Wade    2011   29.0   7.1   5.2   2.6   1.5   3.1   1.1
.22   Larry Bird     1988   30.7   9.7   5.4   2.0   1.6   2.7    .7
.24   Tracy Mcgrady  2006   26.3   6.9   5.1   1.8   1.2   2.5    .9

.24   Karl Malone    2001   27.5   9.7   4.9   2.8   1.2   3.1    .8
.29   Dirk Nowitzki  2007   29.2  10.5   4.3   2.3    .7   2.2    .8
.37   Elgin Baylor   1963   26.8  10.1   4.2   2.6   1.7   3.6   1.6
.38   Grant Hill     2000   26.4   7.0   5.1   2.6   1.4   3.2    .6
.41   Paul Pierce    2003   27.0   6.9   4.6   2.8   1.7   3.5    .8


diff   per-36 rates   yr    Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00  Andre Drummond 2016   19.2   17.2    .9   3.3   1.9   2.4   1.6
.36   Roy Tarpley   1989   20.3   13.3   1.0   4.2   1.7   2.7   1.8
.41  Kenneth Faried 2012   17.8   13.6   1.3   4.2   1.2   2.0   1.6
.47   Buck Williams 1983   19.2   13.3   1.5   3.4   1.1   3.1   1.4
.53   Moses Malone  1978   19.3   15.1    .5   3.1    .8   3.9   1.3

.56   Robert Parish 1991   19.7   12.5    .9   2.9   1.0   2.2   1.5
.56   Dwight Howard 2006   17.1   14.0   1.6   3.4    .8   2.6   1.4
.63   Ray Felix     1954   18.8   13.0   1.3   3.5    .7   2.7   2.0
.64 Demarcus Cousins 2012  21.1   13.6   1.8   4.9   1.8   3.3   1.4
.67   Shawn Kemp    1992   19.2   13.4   1.6   5.0   1.4   3.0   2.4


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   James Harden    2016   27.0   5.9   6.6   2.7   1.4   4.5   .7
.08   Kobe Bryant     2005   27.5   5.7   5.6   2.5   1.2   3.8   .8
.08   Dwyane Wade     2005   26.6   5.3   6.7   2.9   1.5   4.1  1.0
.13   LeBron James    2015   29.2   6.0   7.5   2.0   1.6   4.3   .7
.17 Russell Westbrook 2012   26.3   5.0   6.5   2.3   1.8   3.8   .3

.21   Clyde Drexler   1992   25.8   6.7   6.4   3.1   1.9   3.2   .9
.22   Tracy Mcgrady   2007   27.5   6.0   7.7   2.0   1.3   3.1   .5
.24   Kyrie Irving    2012   23.4   4.8   6.0   2.6   1.3   3.9   .5
.25   Grant Hill      2000   26.4   7.0   5.1   2.6   1.4   3.2   .6
.26   Jerry West      1966   26.8   4.9   5.2   2.9   1.9   3.3   .6


diff   per-36 rates   yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO    Blk
.00   Kawhi Leonard  2016   26.8   8.0   3.1   2.0   2.1   1.5   1.0
.16  Marques Johnson 1979   25.8   7.8   2.8   2.5   1.5   2.3   1.2
.18   Dirk Nowitzki  2003   26.9   9.3   2.9   2.5   1.3   1.8   1.0
.24 Dominique Wilkins 1990  26.5   7.1   2.4   1.8   1.6   2.2    .6
.36   Paul Pierce    2002   27.1   6.3   3.2   2.7   1.8   2.8   1.0

.37   Tracy McGrady  2001   25.7   7.2   4.5   2.0   1.4   2.4   1.5
.40   Kevin Durant   2011   28.4   7.0   2.7   1.9   1.1   2.7    .9
.42  Carmelo Anthony 2014   29.0   8.1   2.9   2.7   1.2   2.6    .6
.45   Chris Bosh     2008   26.3   9.3   2.2   2.4    .9   2.3   1.0
.45   Tracy McGrady  2002   25.4   7.5   5.2   1.8   1.5   2.4    .9


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Kyle Lowry      2016   23.0   5.2   6.8   2.7   2.2   3.0   .5
.05   Manu Ginobili   2011   23.7   4.9   6.4   2.5   1.9   2.7   .4
.10   Rick Barry      1974   23.0   6.0   5.8   3.4   2.2   3.2   .5
.11   Oscar Robertson 1970   20.9   4.8   6.0   2.3   2.0   2.9   .6
.12   Eric Bledsoe    2014   21.8   5.4   6.5   2.6   1.8   3.8   .3

.12   Walt Frazier    1970   20.2   5.0   7.5   2.5   2.3   3.2   .6
.13 Anfernee Hardaway 1996   25.0   4.6   7.1   2.0   2.1   2.8   .5
.13   Terrell Brandon 1997   22.7   4.6   7.4   2.3   1.8   2.3   .4
.14   Jerry West      1968   24.8   4.5   5.6   3.0   2.0   3.1   .5
.14   Dave Bing       1970   20.7   4.1   6.9   3.1   2.2   3.0   .4


diff   per-36 rates   yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00   Draymond Green 2016   16.1   9.7   8.8   3.1   1.5   3.1   1.4
.36   Magic Johnson  1983   17.4   8.9   9.5   2.6   2.3   3.9    .6
.45   Larry Bird     1991   18.1   8.4   6.5   1.9   1.8   3.1   1.0
.51   Alvan Adams    1976   18.9   9.8   6.2   3.7   1.7   4.4   1.6
.52   Scottie Pippen 1993   17.6   7.9   6.0   2.6   2.1   3.0    .9

.55   Joakim Noah    2014   15.7  12.5   5.7   3.2   1.3   2.7   1.5
.57   Grant Hill     1996   20.3  10.1   6.8   2.8   1.2   3.1    .6
.58   Lamar Odom     2001   18.0   8.1   5.5   3.1   1.0   3.5   1.6
.63 Billy Cunningham 1972   18.7   9.9   5.3   3.8   1.9   3.1   1.5
.66   Boris Diaw     2006   14.2   6.9   6.6   3.3    .7   2.4   1.1


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Paul George     2016   25.9   7.1   3.9   3.0   2.0   3.9   .3
.09   Walter Davis    1978   27.0   6.3   3.5   3.4   1.6   3.9   .3
.13   Paul Pierce     2005   24.9   7.2   4.3   3.2   1.7   2.9   .5
.19   Chris Webber    1996   25.6   8.2   4.9   3.4   1.8   3.3   .6
.20   Carmelo Anthony 2009   24.4   7.8   3.2   3.2   1.2   3.2   .4

.21   Sidney Moncrief 1983   25.5   6.0   3.9   2.5   1.5   2.7   .3
.22   Grant Hill      2000   26.4   7.0   5.1   2.6   1.4   3.2   .6
.24   Billy Knight    1976   22.6   7.7   3.3   2.8   1.3   4.1   .3
.24   Manu Ginobili   2009   23.5   6.3   4.2   2.6   1.9   2.6   .5
.24   Bernard King    1983   26.3   5.7   3.2   3.8   1.5   3.2   .2
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Mike G »

Code: Select all

diff   per-36 rates   yr     Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00 DeMarcus Cousins 2016   28.3   11.7   2.9   4.2   1.4   3.9   1.4
.12   Shawn Kemp     1999   25.9   11.3   2.9   4.0   1.2   3.2   1.1
.12  Charles Barkley 1988   30.9   12.0   2.9   3.3   1.2   3.6   1.2
.19   Bob McAdoo     1976   26.7   10.7   3.6   3.5   1.1   3.5   1.9
.20   Karl Malone    1995   29.3   11.9   3.3   3.2   1.6   2.8   1.0

.21   Bob Pettit     1963   24.7   11.3   3.0   3.5   1.3   3.3   1.8
.22   George Mikan   1952   24.2   11.4   3.2   4.2   1.4   3.3   1.8
.23   Patrick Ewing  1995   26.2   11.9   2.8   3.5    .9   3.3   2.0
.25  Arvydas Sabonis 1996   24.1   11.7   2.6   4.1   1.2   3.0   1.5
.25   Elgin Baylor   1962   26.5   11.5   3.7   2.8   1.5   3.6   1.8


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00   Paul Millsap    2016   21.8   9.2   3.9   3.3   2.1   2.6   1.5
.06   Julius Erving   1977   21.6   8.0   3.7   3.2   2.0   2.9   1.4
.07   Chris Webber    1998   21.3   9.5   3.8   3.6   1.5   2.5   1.7
.08   Elgin Baylor    1968   20.4   9.1   4.1   2.9   1.6   3.0   1.4
.12   Connie Hawkins  1970   19.8   8.3   4.0   3.3   1.6   2.8   1.3

.14   Kevin Garnett   1999   20.6  10.6   4.6   3.2   1.6   2.8   1.8
.15   Danny Manning   1992   21.2   7.3   3.5   3.7   1.7   2.7   1.6
.16  Billy Cunningham 1970   21.5  10.7   3.8   3.9   1.5   3.1   1.7
.16   Dolph Schayes   1958   21.0   9.8   3.0   3.2   1.3   2.9   1.5
.17   Cliff Hagan     1959   21.6   7.8   3.5   3.8   1.5   2.8   1.2


diff  per-36 rates    yr     Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO    Blk
.00  Anthony Davis   2016   23.6   10.2   1.7   2.5   1.3   2.2   2.5
.13  David Robinson  2000   23.4   11.2   2.1   3.5   1.4   2.3   2.6
.15  Hakeem Olajuwon 1999   22.2   10.5   2.0   3.3   1.7   2.9   2.6
.16  Elton Brand     2006   25.4   10.0   2.6   2.7   1.0   2.0   2.4
.16  Robert Parish   1983   22.4   11.8   1.9   3.2   1.2   2.7   2.2

.17  Patrick Ewing   1992   25.3   11.5   1.9   3.3   1.1   2.5   2.9
.20  Derrick Favors  2015   21.2   10.1   1.9   3.2   1.0   1.8   1.9
.20  Jermaine O'Neal 2003   22.6   10.8   2.1   3.6    .9   2.3   2.3
.20  Spencer Haywood 1973   24.2   10.2   2.2   2.5   1.1   3.0   1.6
.22  Tim Duncan      1999   24.8   11.3   2.6   2.8    .9   2.8   2.4


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Chris Paul      2016   22.0   4.0  11.5   3.1   2.3   3.2   .2
.16   John Stockton   1997   19.5   3.3  11.1   2.5   2.1   3.2   .2
.20   Isiah Thomas    1986   19.6   3.6   9.7   3.3   2.3   3.8   .3
.23   Kevin Johnson   1991   23.8   3.6   9.4   2.3   2.2   3.6   .1
.29   Tim Hardaway    1998   20.8   4.0   9.0   2.5   1.7   2.8   .2

.29   Baron Davis     2005   20.2   4.1   8.7   2.9   1.9   3.0   .3
.30   Jerry West      1972   23.5   3.4   8.6   2.7   2.5   3.4   .2
.31   Michael Adams   1991   20.8   3.5   8.7   2.6   2.3   3.8   .1
.32   Deron Williams  2011   20.7   4.3   9.6   2.9   1.2   3.5   .2
.35   Jeremy Lin      2012   21.8   4.4   9.3   3.0   2.1   4.9   .4


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   DeMar DeRozan   2016   24.9   4.8   4.5   2.0   1.0   2.3   .3
.05   Ray Allen       2002   24.1   4.8   4.1   2.3   1.3   2.3   .3
.06   Alex English    1988   23.3   4.7   4.3   2.5    .9   2.4   .3
.09   Pete Maravich   1977   24.6   4.2   4.9   2.4   1.1   2.9   .3
.11  Chauncey Billups 2003   22.1   4.5   4.9   2.1   1.0   2.1   .2

.12   Reggie Miller   1997   26.1   3.9   3.6   2.2    .9   2.1   .3
.14   Gordon Hayward  2015   23.0   5.4   4.4   2.0   1.4   2.9   .4
.15   Paul Pierce     2008   26.0   5.8   4.6   2.5   1.3   2.8   .4
.15   Mitch Richmond  1995   23.1   4.5   3.7   2.7   1.1   2.8   .3
.15  Jerry Stackhouse 2003   22.5   3.8   4.7   1.8    .9   2.7   .4


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Chris Bosh      2016   23.3   8.4   2.6   1.9    .8   1.6   .8
.10   Dan Issel       1980   23.1   8.6   2.3   2.4   1.1   2.1   .7
.10   Dirk Nowitzki   2013   20.6   7.8   2.8   2.0    .8   1.5   .8
.14 Lamarcus Aldridge 2012   23.4   8.8   2.6   2.8    .9   2.1   .8
.18   Josh Howard     2007   21.4   8.2   2.4   2.7   1.2   1.9   .8

.19   Pau Gasol       2009   21.0   9.9   3.0   2.1    .6   1.9  1.0
.22 Dominique Wilkins 1997   20.6   8.1   2.3   1.8    .7   2.5   .6
.23   David West      2011   22.6   9.1   2.5   3.1   1.0   2.2   .9
.23   Calvin Natt     1985   23.9   8.1   2.8   2.5   1.0   2.6   .5
.25   Carmelo Anthony 2015   25.7   7.1   2.7   2.2   1.0   2.3   .4


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Kevin Love      2016   19.4   13.0   2.8   2.3   1.1   2.3   .6
.06   Greg Monroe     2015   19.8   12.1   2.2   2.4   1.2   2.6   .5
.11   Carlos Boozer   2004   17.8   12.7   2.2   2.8   1.0   1.9   .8
.16   Zach Randolph   2015   20.9   13.4   2.1   2.7   1.1   2.4   .3
.17   Brad Daugherty  1994   18.5   10.9   3.0   2.9    .8   2.2   .7

.17   Charles Barkley 1998   17.6   13.8   3.5   3.0   1.1   2.4   .5
.17   Kevin Willis    1994   20.7   12.5   2.0   3.2   1.0   2.4   .5
.18   Kevin Garnett   2011   21.2   11.7   3.1   2.5   1.6   2.0   .9
.21   Larry Johnson   1992   17.4   10.7   3.2   2.8   1.0   2.0   .6
.22   Cliff Robinson  1984   16.8   11.8   2.7   2.9    .8   2.8   .5


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Jimmy Butler    2016   22.4   4.6   3.7   1.9   1.6   2.0   .7
.10   Grant Hill      2005   22.1   5.1   3.4   2.3   1.5   2.5   .4
.11   Chris Mullin    1992   22.7   5.1   2.8   2.0   2.0   2.3   .7
.12   James Worthy    1991   21.0   4.7   3.4   1.5   1.3   1.6   .4
.13   Hersey Hawkins  1993   20.6   4.3   3.7   2.4   1.7   2.3   .4

.13   Byron Scott     1988   22.3   4.2   3.7   2.5   1.9   2.0   .3
.14  Jason Richardson 2005   20.9   5.7   3.9   2.1   1.4   2.3   .4
.14   Lou Hudson      1973   22.5   5.1   3.0   2.5   1.3   2.6   .7
.14   Michael Finley  2001   20.1   4.9   4.1   1.9   1.3   2.1   .4
.16   Sam Jones       1963   20.0   4.4   3.5   2.5   1.5   2.4   .5


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco    Reb   Ast   PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00   Pau Gasol       2016   19.9   11.6   3.6   2.3   .6   2.3   2.5
.08   Tim Duncan      2011   18.8   12.8   3.8   2.1   .9   2.2   2.4
.12   Derrick Coleman 1994   20.4   11.1   3.4   2.8   .9   2.8   1.9
.16   Elton Brand     2004   20.3   10.7   3.3   3.2   .9   2.7   2.2
.23   Pervis Ellison  1992   19.9   11.0   2.7   3.3   .9   2.9   2.6

.26   Larry Nance     1991   19.9    9.2   2.9   2.8   .8   1.7   2.5
.27   Kevin Garnett   2007   21.3   12.7   2.9   2.3  1.1   2.5   1.6
.27   Spencer Haywood 1974   19.3   11.2   2.9   2.5   .8   2.8   1.3
.28   Artis Gilmore   1977   20.9   13.0   2.7   3.4   .6   3.1   2.6
.30   Elvin Hayes     1972   18.2   11.0   2.8   2.6  1.3   2.7   1.7


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Isaiah Thomas   2016   25.6   3.1   7.5   2.2   1.3   3.1   .1
.03   Stephon Marbury 2001   24.4   3.2   7.9   2.2   1.2   2.9   .1
.05   Tony Parker     2006   25.7   3.8   7.6   2.2   1.1   3.4   .1
.07   Nate Archibald  1975   25.2   2.5   6.6   2.2   1.4   3.1   .1
.14  Chauncey Billups 2008   26.3   3.5   7.4   1.9   1.5   2.3   .2

.16   Dana Barros     1995   22.6   3.3   7.3   1.8   1.7   2.8   .0
.18   Goran Dragic    2014   24.0   3.5   6.6   2.8   1.4   3.0   .3
.18   Mark Price      1993   23.1   3.2   8.7   1.6   1.3   3.0   .2
.19   Stephen Curry   2013   23.1   3.9   6.2   2.4   1.5   2.9   .1
.21   Jerry West      1969   23.8   3.2   6.5   2.5   2.1   3.1   .2
Closest Isiah is #211
bchaikin
Posts: 307
Joined: Thu May 12, 2011 2:09 am

Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by bchaikin »

cousins 1516 and barkey 8788 aren't very similar in terms of wins generated on a per minute basis...

cousins now shoots less than 47% on 2s, barkley that year 63%. per 40 minutes that's on average about 15 zero point possessions for cousins but just 9-10 for barkley. simulation shows that on a 40 min/g and 82 game basis barkley generates 7-8 more wins than cousins. considering the difference between the best and worst starters at a specific position in any particular season on a 40 min/g and 82 game basis is generally 15-16 wins, you can see 7-8 wins is huge...
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Mike G »

Sometimes 'most similar' in each category does not translate to 'most effective'. In the Barkley/Cousins example, it's true that Charles has better numbers overall, but they're close in every department.

Code: Select all

.  per-36 rates   yr     Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
DeMarcus Cousins 2016   28.3   11.7   2.9   4.2   1.4   3.9   1.4
Charles Barkley  1988   30.9   12.0   2.9   3.3   1.2   3.6   1.2
Barkley's big edge is in scoring; after that, it's pretty even.
In 1987-88, he led the NBA in 2FG% (.630), eFG% (.604), and TS% (.665), when league ORtg and DRtg were 108.0
Cousins doesn't shoot that well, but it's vs a league with 105.4 O- and D-Rtg.
The Kings are +2.8 per 100 poss with him on the court, -8.8 when he's off, for a net difference of 11.6
Last year it was +9.5; so it may not be a fluke.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ide01.html

Just 6 players have averaged 35 points and 15 rebounds per 100 possessions in a season. Shaq did this 11 times, Cousins is in his 3rd such season, and others have done it once: Moses, Yao, Zach, and Love.
In these 18 player-seasons, Cousins has the 3 highest steals rates, the 2 best rebound rates, the 2nd highest assist rate (after Love'14).

I see Cousins' RPM (at ESPN site) is 6.56, tied for 8th in the league.
This is considerably better than his BPM, 2.1
If his RPM is 4.5 pts better than his BPM -- and Barkley'88 is really as much worse than his 9.0 BPM ...

What I have always wondered is why a Barkley, shooting .150 better than the rest of his team, doesn't get more shots?
Does Cousins improve the shooting of his teammates? Did Barkley have the opposite effect?

Now, in the usage/efficiency tradeoff, it turns out these 2 are on the continuum of extremes.
Among F and C, from highest Usg% to highest ORtg, players with the best ORtg at a given Usg%
Minimum 30 mpg.

Code: Select all

player             yr    Usg%   ORtg   TS%
Jermaine O'Neal   2005   36.2   102   .520
DeMarcus Cousins  2016   35.8   103   .538
Carmelo Anthony   2013   35.6   112   .560
Bernard King      1985   35.1   113   .585
Kevin Durant      2014   33.0   123   .635
Charles Barkley   1991   29.1   123   .635
Amar'e Stoudemire 2008   28.2   124   .656
Charles Barkley   1988   26.7   126   .665
Barkley           1989   24.4   127   .653
Barkley           1990   24.0   128   .661
Horace Grant      1992   15.5   132   .618
Tyson Chandler    2013   13.0   133   .671
So Barkley's usage dropped further, even as his efficiency improved.
Cousins is going the other way, sinking ORtg and rising Usg% over 3 seasons.
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Mike G »

Another batch.

Code: Select all

diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   John Wall       2016   19.7   4.2   9.6   2.1   2.1   4.5   .8
.22   Kevin Johnson   1989   19.6   3.9  10.3   2.7   1.6   3.8   .3
.22   Jeremy Lin      2012   21.8   4.4   9.3   3.0   2.1   4.9   .4
.25   Oscar Robertson 1969   20.3   4.4   8.0   2.6   2.4   3.2   .5
.25   Isiah Thomas    1990   17.7   4.0   9.4   2.6   1.7   4.0   .2

.27   Rod Strickland  1996   18.6   4.6   9.7   2.0   1.4   3.8   .2
.30   Deron Williams  2012   21.9   3.6   8.6   2.3   1.2   4.1   .4
.32   Walt Frazier    1970   20.2   5.0   7.5   2.5   2.3   3.2   .6
.33   Baron Davis     2005   20.2   4.1   8.7   2.9   1.9   3.0   .3
.33   Terrell Brandon 1998   17.8   4.0   8.4   2.5   2.3   3.0   .4


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Kemba Walker    2016   21.5   4.2   5.1   1.4   1.8   2.3   .7
.12 Anfernee Hardaway 1997   22.3   4.7   5.9   2.1   1.6   2.4   .6
.13  Brandon Jennings 2012   20.4   3.6   5.4   1.8   1.7   2.3   .3
.16   Michael Finley  1998   20.0   5.0   4.9   1.8   1.5   2.5   .3
.18   Rick Barry      1978   21.1   5.1   5.3   2.3   1.9   2.8   .6

.19   Gus Williams    1980   21.6   3.3   4.7   2.0   2.5   2.3   .5
.20   Jerry West      1967   23.3   4.1   5.3   2.3   1.9   2.9   .4
.21   Chris Mullin    1988   20.5   3.7   4.7   2.4   2.0   2.8   .6
.22   Oscar Robertson 1970   20.9   4.8   6.0   2.3   2.0   2.9   .6
.22   Tracy Mcgrady   2008   21.2   5.4   5.4   1.4   1.0   2.4   .4


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco    Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO    Blk
.00   K-Anthony Towns 2016   20.7   12.5   1.8   3.8   .8   2.6   2.2
.04   Willis Reed     1970   20.8   11.9   1.9   3.5  1.0   2.8   1.8
.08   Elvin Hayes     1977   21.4   11.0   1.8   3.6  1.0   2.9   2.5
.08  Clyde Lovellette 1956   20.2   12.0   2.3   3.6  1.1   2.9   1.9
.10   Robert Parish   1983   22.4   11.8   1.9   3.2  1.2   2.7   2.2

.11   Ray Felix       1954   18.8   13.0   1.3   3.5   .7   2.7   2.0
.11   Walt Bellamy    1964   22.2   11.5   1.4   3.4   .8   2.8   1.8
.11   Artis Gilmore   1976   21.9   12.5   2.3   3.9   .7   3.4   2.4
.12   Jermaine O'Neal 2002   19.4   10.6   1.7   3.7   .6   2.4   2.3
.12  Shaquille O'Neal 2009   22.8   11.2   1.7   4.2   .8   2.8   1.8


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Reggie Jackson  2016   24.1   4.5   7.7   2.6   1.0   3.3   .1
.08   Tony Parker     2006   25.7   3.8   7.6   2.2   1.1   3.4   .1
.15   Stephon Marbury 2001   24.4   3.2   7.9   2.2   1.2   2.9   .1
.19   Isaiah Thomas   2014   23.4   3.3   6.4   2.7   1.4   3.2   .1
.19   Stephen Curry   2013   23.1   3.9   6.2   2.4   1.5   2.9   .1

.19   Sam Cassell     2002   21.4   4.6   7.2   2.9   1.3   2.5   .2
.20   Kevin Johnson   1997   22.7   3.8   9.0   2.0   1.4   3.1   .2
.20  Chauncey Billups 2005   22.5   3.7   6.6   2.5   1.0   2.3   .1
.21   Damian Lillard  2015   24.2   4.7   6.3   2.0   1.4   2.7   .3
.23   Goran Dragic    2014   24.0   3.5   6.6   2.8   1.4   3.0   .3


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb    Ast   PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00   DeAndre Jordan  2016   13.9   13.6   1.1   3.0   .5   1.2   2.4
.14   Dikembe Mutombo 1999   14.1   13.2   1.4   3.0   .3   1.9   3.0
.14   Tyson Chandler  2013   13.1   12.6   1.2   3.1   .7   1.5   1.6
.15   Erick Dampier   2004   15.2   13.7   1.0   3.4   .5   2.0   2.1
.17   Emeka Okafor    2007   15.1   12.8   1.0   3.4   .9   1.8   2.7

.21   Marcus Camby    2001   15.7   13.6   1.0   3.5  1.1   1.1   2.3
.23   Dale Davis      2000   12.7   12.3   1.1   3.3   .9   1.5   1.5
.24   Kris Humphries  2011   13.6   14.7   1.4   3.0   .6   1.8   1.4
.24   Will Perdue     1997   11.4   12.9    .7   3.4   .6   1.6   1.9
.25   Elmore Smith    1972   12.9   12.6   1.3   3.7   .7   2.1   1.9


diff   per-36 rates     yr     Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO    Blk
.00   Brook Lopez      2016   21.7   9.3   1.5   3.3   .8   2.5   2.1
.07   Zelmo Beaty      1972   21.4  10.1   1.4   3.8   .8   2.6   1.6
.09   Dan Issel        1971   20.6   9.0   1.5   3.7   .8   2.5   1.4
.11   Derrick Favors   2015   21.2  10.1   1.9   3.2  1.0   1.8   1.9
.12   Amare Stoudemire 2004   21.5   9.2   1.5   3.5  1.2   3.3   1.6

.12   Artis Gilmore    1986   19.4   9.5   1.4   3.6   .6   2.8   1.6
.12   Spencer Haywood  1972   21.2   9.9   1.7   2.6   .9   2.6   1.5
.12 Zydrunas Ilgauskas 2005   20.2  10.0   1.4   4.4   .7   2.7   2.3
.12   Rik Smits        1998   22.6   9.3   1.8   4.1   .7   2.2   1.5
.13   Bill Cartwright  1984   21.7  10.4   1.5   3.8   .6   2.9   1.4


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Damian Lillard  2016   25.0   4.5   6.7   2.4    .9   3.4   .3
.07  Jerry Stackhouse 2002   23.8   4.5   5.9   2.2   1.1   3.7   .5
.11   Kyrie Irving    2012   23.4   4.8   6.0   2.6   1.3   3.9   .5
.15   Kobe Bryant     2013   26.6   5.3   5.6   2.1   1.3   3.5   .3
.17   Goran Dragic    2014   24.0   3.5   6.6   2.8   1.4   3.0   .3

.17   James Harden    2014   27.8   4.7   6.2   2.3   1.5   3.7   .4
.18   Manu Ginobili   2014   22.6   4.7   6.6   2.9   1.6   3.2   .4
.18   Pete Maravich   1977   24.6   4.2   4.9   2.4   1.1   2.9   .3
.19 Russell Westbrook 2012   26.3   5.0   6.5   2.3   1.8   3.8   .3
.19   Tony Parker     2006   25.7   3.8   7.6   2.2   1.1   3.4   .1


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00   Greg Monroe     2016   19.9   11.7   2.6   2.7   1.2   2.1   1.1
.06   Marques Johnson 1978   19.2   10.7   2.3   2.9   1.2   2.3   1.4
.07   Kevin Garnett   2009   21.4   11.4   2.9   2.7   1.3   1.9   1.4
.08   Al Jefferson    2013   20.4   10.9   2.4   2.4   1.1   1.5   1.1
.11   Shawn Marion    2001   19.3   11.4   2.2   2.7   1.7   1.7   1.4

.11   Spencer Haywood 1974   19.3   11.2   2.9   2.5    .8   2.8   1.3
.12   Vin Baker       1996   19.4   10.4   2.5   3.1    .8   2.5   1.0
.12   Drew Gooden     2005   18.3   11.4   1.9   3.3   1.1   1.9   1.1
.12   Carlos Boozer   2004   17.8   12.7   2.2   2.8   1.0   1.9    .8
.13  Donyell Marshall 2002   18.8   10.3   2.1   3.0   1.0   2.5   1.4


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Gordon Hayward  2016   22.5   5.6   3.8   2.2   1.2   2.7   .3
.05   Grant Hill      2005   22.1   5.1   3.4   2.3   1.5   2.5   .4
.06 Richard Jefferson 2004   21.6   6.0   4.2   2.7   1.1   2.4   .3
.07   Paul Pierce     2009   23.2   6.2   3.4   2.6   1.0   2.8   .3
.07  Jason Richardson 2005   20.9   5.7   3.9   2.1   1.4   2.3   .4

.07   Rudy Gay        2015   21.6   6.4   3.9   2.4   1.1   2.8   .5
.07   Sidney Moncrief 1984   21.9   6.7   4.2   2.5   1.3   2.7   .3
.08   Ray Allen       2002   24.1   4.8   4.1   2.3   1.3   2.3   .3
.09   Mitch Richmond  1995   23.1   4.5   3.7   2.7   1.1   2.8   .3
.10   Billy Knight    1977   23.7   6.3   3.1   2.4   1.4   2.7   .2


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Carmelo Anthony 2016   23.1   7.7   4.0   2. 5   .9   2.6   .6
.08   Marques Johnson 1983   22.1   7.3   4.5   2.7   1.3   2.5   .7
.09   Glenn Robinson  2001   22.6   7.2   3.4   2.5   1.1   2.9   .8
.10   Rudy Gay        2015   21.6   6.4   3.9   2.4   1.1   2.8   .5
.10   Detlef Schrempf 1995   23.3   7.0   3.7   3.2   1.2   2.2   .4

.11   Paul Pierce     2013   22.1   7.3   4.7   2.9   1.2   3.0   .4
.12   Sidney Moncrief 1984   21.9   6.7   4.2   2.5   1.3   2.7   .3
.13 Richard Jefferson 2005   22.8   7.4   4.1   3.1    .9   3.7   .5
.15   Calvin Natt     1985   23.9   8.1   2.8   2.5   1.0   2.6   .5
.15   David West      2013   21.4   8.6   3.6   2.2   1.1   2.3   .9
Crow
Posts: 10536
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Crow »

This works pretty well but could be even better.

Is your difference finding sum of squared differences equally weighted? Weighting the criteria by relative game impact would make sense to me. Breaking scoring into several parts would as well.

Basketball-Reference's player similarity comparison by winshares trend best to worst is not very helpful in my opinion.
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Mike G »

diff = (sqrt(Sco1)-sqrt(Sco2))^2 + (sqrt(Reb1)-sqrt(Reb2))^2 + ...
I took the sqrt of the whole mess, but that's just an aesthetic preference.

You could break scoring into various styles, but points is points.
Could break rebounding into OReb and DReb.
These things might weaken the overall productivity estimate, which is what it's about.

I'd love to see someone else's version of this. When b-r.com had one, only players the same age were considered. Height was a factor. Maybe players had to be the same 'position'? Such things really limit the possibilities.
Crow
Posts: 10536
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Crow »

If BR used height or position in past I don't think they are now or at least not very strongly. That is another reason I find their results not that helpful. E.g. a PG similar in winshares trend to a forward. So what? If you are looking for similarity, height and position are very prominent reasons for similarity. Run it with and without height or position as factors to find similars within traditional groupings and outside of it for the few that vary a lot from the norm.


Schoene based similarity was (is?) another approach, using details instead of global ratings.
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Mike G »

Well, if you have to replace LaMarcus Aldridge's points and rebounds, a low turnover guy who blocks some shots, any of these will do. If a taller or shorter guy does the job as well, who cares?

Code: Select all

diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco    Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO    Blk
.00 LaMarcus Aldridge 2016   22.7   11.6   2.0   2.7   .4   1.8   1.1
.12   Chris Bosh      2007   22.7   10.7   2.2   2.3   .5   2.5   1.3
.14   Antonio McDyess 2001   21.5   12.3   2.2   3.2   .6   2.4   1.5
.14   Nikola Vucevic  2015   22.3   12.4   1.8   3.2   .7   2.2    .8
.17   Kevin McHale    1985   22.8    9.9   1.7   3.2   .4   2.2   1.6

.21   Pau Gasol       2010   20.1   11.5   2.6   2.3   .5   2.2   1.6
.22   Robert Parish   1990   20.0   11.9   1.4   2.8   .6   2.5   1.0
.23   Al Jefferson    2014   25.5   11.7   2.3   2.5  1.0   1.9   1.0
.25   Tim Duncan      2010   22.8   12.9   2.9   2.3   .7   2.1   1.7
.27   Mehmet Okur     2006   19.4   10.6   2.5   3.6   .5   2.0    .9


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco    Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO    Blk
.00   Nikola Vucevic  2016   20.5   10.2   3.1   3.0   .9   2.1   1.3
.07   Kevin Garnett   2012   22.2   10.7   3.6   2.8  1.1   2.1   1.3
.09   Elton Brand     2001   19.6   10.4   3.4   3.2   .9   2.9   1.5
.09   Vin Baker       1996   19.4   10.4   2.5   3.1   .8   2.5   1.0
.09 Shareef AbdurRahim 2000  20.0   10.6   3.3   2.9  1.0   2.9   1.0

.10 Lamarcus Aldridge 2013   20.7    9.3   2.5   2.4   .8   1.9   1.1
.11   Elgin Baylor    1967   19.8    9.3   2.5   2.9  1.2   2.6   1.4
.12   Spencer Haywood 1974   19.3   11.2   2.9   2.5   .8   2.8   1.3
.12   Marques Johnson 1978   19.2   10.7   2.3   2.9  1.2   2.3   1.4
.12   Dolph Schayes   1958   21.0    9.8   3.0   3.2  1.3   2.9   1.5


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco    Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO    Blk
.00  Hassan Whiteside 2016   17.7   14.5    .4   3.1   .7   2.7   4.9
.42   Dikembe Mutombo 1998   16.3   12.6   1.1   3.2   .4   2.1   3.5
.43   Javale Mcgee    2012   17.1   12.0    .7   4.0   .8   2.1   3.2
.63   Alonzo Mourning 2006   15.5   10.8    .3   4.8   .4   2.1   4.7
.67   Emeka Okafor    2007   15.1   12.8   1.0   3.4   .9   1.8   2.7

.68   Serge Ibaka     2012   13.6   11.0    .7   3.8   .7   1.7   4.9
.70  Gheorghe Muresan 1996   19.1   12.3    .9   4.7   .8   2.2   2.7
.74   Elmore Smith    1976   15.8   11.2   1.3   3.5  1.0   2.4   3.1
.78   Moses Malone    1977   14.8   15.3   1.3   3.9  1.0   2.6   2.6
.81   Patrick Ewing   1999   19.8   11.4   1.4   3.0   .8   2.8   2.8


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00   Al Horford      2016   18.6   7.7   3.6   2.2   1.0   1.5   1.7
.14   Rasheed Wallace 2004   18.4   7.7   2.7   2.9    .9   1.8   1.9
.17   Marc Gasol      2014   18.2   8.9   3.8   2.8   1.1   2.2   1.3
.19   Kevin Garnett   1997   17.0   8.4   3.1   2.5   1.3   2.2   2.1
.20   David West      2014   19.7   8.5   3.6   2.8    .9   2.1   1.0

.23   Tracy McGrady   2000   17.2   7.4   3.9   2.9   1.3   2.3   2.2
.23   Vince Carter    1999   19.8   6.3   3.4   2.9   1.2   2.3   1.6
.25   Brad Miller     2005   17.8   9.4   3.8   3.2   1.2   1.5   1.2
.26   Larry Nance     1991   19.9   9.2   2.9   2.8    .8   1.7   2.5
.27   Dirk Nowitzki   2013   20.6   7.8   2.8   2.0    .8   1.5    .8


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00   Marc Gasol      2016   18.1   7.6   3.9   2.9   1.0   2.4   1.4
.09   Bob Houbregs    1956   17.7   7.3   3.4   3.1   1.4   2.5   1.1
.10   Connie Hawkins  1972   18.9   7.2   3.6   3.1   1.5   2.6   1.1
.11   David West      2014   19.7   8.5   3.6   2.8    .9   2.1   1.0
.11   Sidney Wicks    1974   18.7   8.4   4.0   2.8   1.2   2.7    .8

.12   Alex English    1979   16.1   8.3   3.4   2.9    .9   2.6   1.1
.12   Willie Wise     1972   18.6   7.8   3.0   3.4   1.3   2.5   1.2
.13   Tracy McGrady   2000   17.2   7.4   3.9   2.9   1.3   2.3   2.2
.14   Bob Lanier      1982   18.7   7.0   3.6   3.7   1.2   2.9   1.0
.14   Vince Carter    1999   19.8   6.3   3.4   2.9   1.2   2.3   1.6


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb    Ast   PF    Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Rajon Rondo     2016   11.5   6.6   12.3   2.3   1.8   4.1   .2
.31   Mark Jackson    1997    9.7   5.1   11.6   2.0   1.2   3.4   .1
.31   Jason Kidd      2000   13.8   7.1   10.2   2.1   1.9   3.3   .4
.42   Gary Grant      1990   12.3   4.9   10.1   2.9   2.6   5.0   .1
.42   Ricky Rubio     2014   10.7   4.9   10.3   3.0   2.6   3.2   .2

.46   Brevin Knight   1999   11.6   4.6   10.4   3.4   2.1   3.1   .2
.49   Rod Strickland  1999   15.4   5.2   10.8   2.1   1.7   3.3   .1
.51   John Bagley     1986   10.6   4.0    9.8   2.4   1.8   3.5   .1
.57   Johnny Moore    1985   11.9   5.3    9.6   3.3   3.1   3.2   .2
.65  M Ray Richardson 1980   12.9   6.5    8.9   3.2   3.2   4.4   .4


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Blake Griffin   2016   25.3   8.3   5.7   3.0    .7   2.5   .6
.22   Carmelo Anthony 2012   26.7   7.3   4.5   3.1   1.3   2.9   .5
.24   Karl Malone     2001   27.5   9.7   4.9   2.8   1.2   3.1   .8
.26   Grant Hill      2000   26.4   7.0   5.1   2.6   1.4   3.2   .6
.29   Vince Carter    2006   26.8   6.2   4.7   3.0   1.2   2.7   .7

.30   Paul Pierce     2013   22.1   7.3   4.7   2.9   1.2   3.0   .4
.30   Marques Johnson 1983   22.1   7.3   4.5   2.7   1.3   2.5   .7
.31   Michael Jordan  1995   24.6   7.1   5.2   2.7   1.7   2.0   .7
.32   Tracy McGrady   2006   26.3   6.9   5.1   1.8   1.2   2.5   .9
.33   LeBron James    2007   27.3   7.0   5.8   2.0   1.4   2.9   .6


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Dwyane Wade     2016   24.5   5.1   5.6   1.7   1.2   3.2   .6
.08  Jerry Stackhouse 2002   23.8   4.5   5.9   2.2   1.1   3.7   .5
.10   Tracy McGrady   2004   26.4   5.7   5.4   1.8   1.3   2.5   .6
.10  Latrell Sprewell 1997   22.6   4.5   5.7   1.8   1.5   3.7   .5
.12   Damian Lillard  2015   24.2   4.7   6.3   2.0   1.4   2.7   .3

.13   James Harden    2013   25.6   4.8   5.7   2.2   1.7   3.6   .4
.13   Kobe Bryant     2013   26.6   5.3   5.6   2.1   1.3   3.5   .3
.15   Michael Jordan  2002   24.1   6.4   5.8   2.1   1.5   2.8   .5
.15   Jerry West      1962   23.9   5.2   4.5   2.1   1.7   3.0   .7
.16 Anfernee Hardaway 1997   22.3   4.7   5.9   2.1   1.6   2.4   .6


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast   PF    Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Klay Thompson   2016   24.4   4.2   3.0   2.2    .5   2.1   .9
.15   David Thompson  1979   24.2   3.6   2.9   2.5   1.0   2.6  1.1
.19  Rolando Blackman 1984   22.7   4.8   3.2   1.6    .7   2.1   .5
.23   Kiki Vandeweghe 1984   28.5   4.8   2.6   2.5    .7   2.1   .7
.27   Reggie Miller   1997   26.1   3.9   3.6   2.2    .9   2.1   .3

.27   Sean Elliott    1996   22.3   5.2   2.7   2.3    .9   2.6   .4
.29  Richard Hamilton 2002   21.8   3.9   3.1   2.3    .6   2.2   .2
.29   Chet Walker     1973   23.0   5.2   2.6   2.4   1.2   2.6   .7
.29   Demar Derozan   2014   23.9   4.5   4.0   2.4   1.0   2.3   .3
.31   Glen Rice       1998   23.6   4.5   2.2   2.3    .9   2.1   .3


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   C.J. McCollum   2016   21.8   3.8   4.4   2.4   1.2   2.3   .2
.03  Chauncey Billups 2010   22.3   3.5   4.6   2.2   1.2   2.6   .1
.03   World B Free    1985   22.6   3.3   4.6   2.6   1.2   2.2   .3
.03  Richard Hamilton 2008   22.6   4.0   4.4   2.6   1.1   2.0   .2
.05   Steve Smith     1997   22.2   3.5   4.4   2.3    .8   2.4   .3

.05   James Silas     1981   21.1   3.9   4.3   2.2    .9   2.7   .2
.06   Mitch Richmond  1994   22.6   3.7   3.9   2.7   1.3   2.8   .2
.06   Joe Johnson     2009   20.7   4.4   4.8   2.1   1.0   2.3   .2
.08   Alex English    1989   23.2   3.8   4.1   2.2    .8   2.5   .1
.08   Eric Gordon     2011   22.7   3.2   4.0   2.0   1.3   2.7   .3
Crow
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Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Crow »

I am not hung up on rigid positions designations or minor height differences but for this similarity example you have to get to the 35th guy on the similarity rank for it not to be a "big man" and it happens to be a very big / fairly heavy wing Tracy McGrady. Size seems to matter a heck of lot in this similarity case.
Mike G
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Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Mike G »

In the previous table, 10 current players are each compared to 9 statistically similar players from earlier seasons.
The 2016 player being compared has .00 in the diff column, since he is not different from himself.

Note that many players are virtually interchangeable with CJ McCollum.
By contrast, nobody has ever shown up with Hassan Whiteside's skill set.

A diff of 1.00 is roughly one position different. At .50, it may be F vs F-G
A C or PG, though -- Whiteside, Rondo -- can hardly be anything else, since they're at the position extremes.
Mike G
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Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Mike G »

Code: Select all

diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00  Dirk Nowitzki    2016   21.9   7.5   2.2   2.2    .7   1.3   .7
.08   Josh Howard     2008   21.2   7.6   2.0   2.7    .8   1.5   .4
.14   Rashard Lewis   2007   21.1   6.7   1.7   2.3   1.1   1.9   .6
.15   Antawn Jamison  2012   19.2   7.4   2.1   2.9    .9   1.6   .7
.16   Chris Bosh      2011   21.4   9.4   2.2   2.3    .8   1.8   .6

.19 Lamarcus Aldridge 2009   19.2   8.5   1.8   2.5   1.0   1.5  1.0
.19   Dan Issel       1980   23.1   8.6   2.3   2.4   1.1   2.1   .7
.22   Calvin Natt     1982   19.8   8.8   1.9   2.5    .9   2.0   .5
.25 Dominique Wilkins 1997   20.6   8.1   2.3   1.8    .7   2.5   .6
.25   Cedric Ceballos 1994   22.9   7.8   1.9   2.7   1.3   2.1   .5


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00  Thaddeus Young   2016   17.2   10.2   1.5   2.8   1.7   2.1   .4
.04   Loy Vaught      1995   16.9   10.4   1.7   3.1   1.3   2.1   .4
.04   Reggie King     1981   16.3   10.6   1.5   3.0   1.4   2.2   .5
.09   Larry Kenon     1975   16.2    9.3   1.4   2.7   1.3   2.4   .4
.12   Greg Monroe     2014   17.2   10.9   2.1   2.8   1.2   2.4   .6

.13   John Shumate    1976   15.9    9.4   2.2   2.8   1.4   2.3   .6
.13   Troy Murphy     2010   16.5   11.2   1.8   2.7   1.1   1.6   .5
.14   A.C. Green      1989   15.9   10.6   1.3   2.4   1.3   1.7   .8
.14   Kenny Thomas    2004   15.3   11.0   1.7   3.0   1.1   2.4   .5
.17   Greg Ballard    1980   16.9    8.4   2.1   2.9   1.3   1.9   .5


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00  Kris. Porzingis  2016   18.6   9.8   1.5   3.8   1.0   2.3   2.5
.04   Elvin Hayes     1980   18.6   9.7   1.4   3.7    .7   2.6   2.3
.05   Elden Campbell  2002   19.0   9.2   1.8   4.3   1.0   2.2   2.2
.08   Zydr. Ilgauskas 2004   18.5   9.6   1.6   3.9    .6   2.3   2.8
.08   Jermaine O'Neal 2002   19.4  10.6   1.7   3.7    .6   2.4   2.3

.09   Mike Green      1975   17.0   9.7   1.3   3.8   1.2   2.8   2.4
.12   Charles Smith   1991   19.0   8.2   1.8   3.7   1.1   2.3   2.0
.13   Antonio McDyess 1999   19.8  11.1   1.7   3.4   1.4   2.7   2.2
.14   David Robinson  2001   20.0  10.7   1.9   3.2   1.2   1.8   2.9
.14  Clyde Lovellette 1955   19.2  10.1   1.5   4.0    .8   2.5   1.6


diff   per-36 rates   yr     Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00  Dwight Howard   2016   16.5   13.2   1.8   3.6   1.1   2.8   1.8
.02   Mel Daniels    1971   16.0   12.9   1.8   3.5    .9   2.5   2.0
.02   Harry Gallatin 1953   16.2   12.8   2.1   3.5   1.1   2.6   2.0
.07   Jerry Lucas    1964   16.1   12.1   2.4   3.5   1.1   2.6   1.9
.07   Buck Williams  1984   15.0   12.9   1.5   3.7   1.0   2.9   1.6

.09   Elvin Hayes    1978   15.6   11.4   1.6   3.7   1.1   2.7   1.9
.11   Rony Seikaly   1991   15.8   12.2   1.5   3.6    .9   3.4   1.4
.12   Arnie Risen    1952   16.6   11.7   2.5   4.0   1.2   2.6   1.8
.13   Roy Tarpley    1990   15.4   13.7   1.5   3.6   1.8   2.6   1.6
.13   Johnny Green   1963   16.0   10.9   2.0   3.4   1.0   2.4   1.7


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00  Danilo Gallinari 2016   20.7   6.2   2.4   1.8    .7   1.4   .5
.08   Jamal Mashburn  2004   20.7   6.3   2.6   2.2    .7   1.9   .3
.10   Luol Deng       2011   18.9   6.2   2.9   1.9    .9   1.8   .5
.14   Michael Finley  2003   19.7   5.5   2.9   1.5   1.1   1.6   .3
.16  Wally Szczerbiak 2003   19.8   5.1   2.8   2.5    .9   1.7   .4

.16   Cuttino Mobley  2001   20.4   5.3   2.5   2.1   1.1   2.1   .3
.16   Glen Rice       1992   21.3   5.0   2.1   2.1   1.1   1.8   .4
.16   Peja Stojakovic 2006   19.4   6.2   2.1   2.4    .6   1.4   .1
.16   Antawn Jamison  2002   19.0   7.0   2.0   2.3    .9   2.0   .6
.16   Dirk Nowitzki   2015   23.0   7.4   2.4   2.4    .6   1.3   .5


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Tony Parker     2016   20.3   3.8   7.9   2.3   1.2   2.2   .2
.01  Chauncey Billups 2007   20.3   3.7   8.1   2.4   1.2   2.1   .2
.04   Gary Payton     2003   20.1   4.2   8.4   2.1   1.6   2.2   .2
.05   Jason Terry     2007   20.0   3.5   6.9   2.2   1.1   2.0   .2
.07   Tim Hardaway    1999   20.1   3.5   8.6   2.1   1.2   2.8   .1

.11   Deron Williams  2013   21.1   3.2   8.1   2.5   1.0   2.8   .4
.12   Sam Cassell     2006   20.6   4.3   7.2   3.1   1.0   2.4   .2
.12   Mike Bibby      2005   19.6   4.1   6.4   2.3   1.5   2.5   .4
.14   Steve Nash      2003   21.4   3.0   8.1   1.8   1.1   2.6   .1
.14   John Lucas      1987   18.8   3.4   7.1   2.2   1.9   2.4   .2


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Will Barton     2016   18.9   7.5   2.9   2.1   1.1   1.9   .5
.06 Richard Jefferson 2003   18.3   7.0   2.8   2.8   1.0   2.0   .6
.06  Jason Richardson 2004   19.4   6.9   3.1   2.3   1.1   2.5   .5
.08   Luol Deng       2011   18.9   6.2   2.9   1.9    .9   1.8   .5
.09   Nick Anderson   1998   20.0   6.6   2.7   2.0   1.5   1.8   .5

.09   Lamond Murray   2002   18.6   6.3   2.5   2.3   1.1   2.2   .7
.10  Danilo Gallinari 2013   18.6   6.0   2.7   2.0   1.0   1.7   .5
.10   Calvin Natt     1986   19.7   7.3   2.5   2.5   1.0   2.3   .2
.11   Antawn Jamison  2002   19.0   7.0   2.0   2.3    .9   2.0   .6
.12   Steve Mix       1981   18.7   6.2   2.5   2.5   1.4   2.1   .4


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00  Antetokounmpo    2016   17.3   7.6   2.6   3.8   1.0   2.7   1.2
.02   James Worthy    1984   17.1   7.8   2.7   3.6   1.1   2.6   1.0
.04   Tom Heinsohn    1960   18.1   7.7   2.3   4.1   1.1   2.4   1.2
.05   Don Nelson      1970   17.6   7.8   2.1   3.7   1.0   2.3   1.2
.05   Don Kojis       1969   17.5   7.0   2.4   3.7   1.1   2.2   1.0

.05   Bailey Howell   1965   17.9   8.2   2.5   4.3   1.2   2.4   1.3
.05   Danny Manning   1997   17.8   8.1   2.7   4.4   1.3   2.6   1.2
.06   Willie Naulls   1962   17.6   8.2   2.2   3.3   1.1   2.3   1.3
.06   Xavier McDaniel 1993   17.0   7.9   2.5   3.9   1.1   2.7    .8
.06   Derrick McKey   1990   16.3   6.9   2.3   3.3   1.2   2.6   1.1


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00  Tobias Harris    2016   16.1   7.8   2.2   2.1   1.1   1.8   .7
.04   Dan Issel       1975   15.6   7.8   2.3   2.5   1.0   2.0   .6
.04   Ken Norman      1993   15.5   8.4   2.2   2.3    .8   1.8   .8
.05   Luol Deng       2006   15.3   7.5   2.1   1.8   1.0   1.5   .7
.08   Shawn Marion    2011   16.6   9.0   1.8   2.2   1.0   2.0   .7

.08   Gerald Wallace  2011   16.3   8.8   2.3   2.5   1.4   2.1   .8
.09   Rashard Lewis   2001   17.6   7.7   1.7   2.6   1.2   1.7   .6
.10   Greg Ballard    1980   16.9   8.4   2.1   2.9   1.3   1.9   .5
.11 Cla. Weatherspoon 1993   15.3   7.9   1.9   2.6   1.2   2.4   .9
.11   Kenny Thomas    2002   15.2   7.7   2.1   2.9   1.3   2.1  1.0


diff   per-36 rates    yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00  Mike Conley      2016   18.0   3.5   6.6   2.1   1.5   1.7   .4
.13   George Hill     2013   17.3   4.1   5.4   1.8   1.1   1.6   .3
.13   Jason Terry     2007   20.0   3.5   6.9   2.2   1.1   2.0   .2
.13   Danny Ainge     1988   16.4   3.3   5.6   2.5   1.4   1.9   .2
.14   Mike Bibby      2005   19.6   4.1   6.4   2.3   1.5   2.5   .4

.14  Chauncey Billups 2009   19.9   3.4   6.0   2.1   1.2   2.4   .2
.14   John Lucas      1987   18.8   3.4   7.1   2.2   1.9   2.4   .2
.15   Jeff Hornacek   1999   17.9   4.3   5.3   2.3   1.3   2.0   .3
.15   Darren Collison 2014   17.8   3.3   5.7   2.6   1.6   2.4   .2
.16   Raymond Felton  2013   15.8   3.3   6.6   2.0   1.5   2.4   .3
Crow
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Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Crow »

Sorry Mike. In middle of night in poor light I thought you were offering a single new example of Aldridge in the last table since he was all you mentioned in the header comments. My mistake. So it was 9 of 9 most similar to him were big men. If you actually carried it out to 35 it is likely to still be almost all big men.


Cases where players have similars of different size or position are most likely for PGs who rebound highly, big men who pass a lot or wings that are usually high on one or both of these. If you had more stat criteria in play like steals, blocks, 3 ptrs there probably be even fewer guys with more than a few similars of a different size / main positional designation (PG, WING, BIG). Size is not absolutely directing but it remains hugely important in NBA for who does what a lot and not so much.
Mike G
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Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Mike G »

Is Steve Novak a 'big'? He's 6-10, and that has been handy for shooting over people; that's all he has used his height for, though. With 9 closest stats:

Code: Select all

per-36 rates      yr     Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO  Blk   ht 
Steve Novak      2013   12.2   3.4    .8   2.0   .6   .3   .2  6-10
Matt Bullard     2001   12.2   4.2   1.3   2.3   .3   .4   .3  6-10
James Jones      2011   11.8   3.7   1.0   2.7   .6   .4   .4   6-8
Anthony Tolliver 2014   12.5   4.7   1.1   2.2   .5   .7   .4   6-8
Jason Kapono     2005   13.1   3.6   1.3   2.8   .8  1.0   .1   6-8

Daequan Cook     2012   11.5   4.5    .6   2.4   .8   .6   .4   6-5
Maurice Evans    2011   10.2   3.7    .9   2.9   .8   .7   .3   6-5
Michael Curry    1997    9.6   3.3   1.2   3.1   .8   .7   .3   6-5
Jodie Meeks      2012   14.5   3.7   1.0   1.8   .9   .7   .1   6-4
Wayne Ellington  2012   10.5   3.4   1.2   1.9   .9   .9   .4   6-4
No very short guys fit this stat profile, and half are 6-8 or taller.
Is Novak more similar to the normal 6-10 player than to these guys?
Note that several of these are 3-point specialists, even though 3-pt shooting is not one of the stats compared.
This is a stat line that is almost not found anywhere before the 3-pt era.
Statman
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Re: 2016 stars and historic similars

Post by Statman »

Mike G wrote:Is Steve Novak a 'big'? He's 6-10, and that has been handy for shooting over people; that's all he has used his height for, though. With 9 closest stats:

Code: Select all

per-36 rates      yr     Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO  Blk   ht 
Steve Novak      2013   12.2   3.4    .8   2.0   .6   .3   .2  6-10
Matt Bullard     2001   12.2   4.2   1.3   2.3   .3   .4   .3  6-10
James Jones      2011   11.8   3.7   1.0   2.7   .6   .4   .4   6-8
Anthony Tolliver 2014   12.5   4.7   1.1   2.2   .5   .7   .4   6-8
Jason Kapono     2005   13.1   3.6   1.3   2.8   .8  1.0   .1   6-8

Daequan Cook     2012   11.5   4.5    .6   2.4   .8   .6   .4   6-5
Maurice Evans    2011   10.2   3.7    .9   2.9   .8   .7   .3   6-5
Michael Curry    1997    9.6   3.3   1.2   3.1   .8   .7   .3   6-5
Jodie Meeks      2012   14.5   3.7   1.0   1.8   .9   .7   .1   6-4
Wayne Ellington  2012   10.5   3.4   1.2   1.9   .9   .9   .4   6-4
No very short guys fit this stat profile, and half are 6-8 or taller.
Is Novak more similar to the normal 6-10 player than to these guys?
Note that several of these are 3-point specialists, even though 3-pt shooting is not one of the stats compared.
This is a stat line that is almost not found anywhere before the 3-pt era.
I think it's the very low steal & turnover rate (& possibly assist rate) - that seems more reserved for the tall 3 point specialist, who never puts the ball on the floor to dribble drive. The shorter guys, even the 3pt specialists, just produce more TOs & steals than the bigs.
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