Careers that derailed

[Mike G]

Here are All-NBA selections from 1990 onward who, before the age of 30, became less than half of their peak selves.
This is defined as less than half their peak season Win Shares. And they (have) never returned to even half their peak.
Sometimes their peak WS does not coincide with an all-NBA season. Oh well.
Showing last season with at least half of peak WS; if peak is also last, the space is blank.

Code: Select all

all-NBA  tm  pos  peak   age   WS     half   WS
B King    1   F   1984   27   12.1    1985   7.1
Worthy    3   F   1990   28   10.6    1991   9.0
Price     1   G   1989   24   11.3    1994  10.0
Daugherty 3   C   1993   27   12.7    1994   6.4
Baker     2   F   1998   26   10.4      

L Johnson 2   F   1996   26   10.1    1998   6.9
Kemp      2   F   1996   26   11.2    1999   6.3
Hill      1   F   1997   24   14.6    2000  10.7
Penny     1   G   1996   24   14.4    2000   7.8
Webber    1   F   2001   27   11.0    2003   6.9

all-NBA  tm  pos  peak   age   WS     half   WS
Arenas    2   G   2006   24   13.6    2007  10.8
McGrady   1  Gf   2003   23   16.1    2007   8.6
Marbury   3   G   2005   27   11.7    2007   5.9
Yao       2   C   2004   23   11.4    2009  10.6
Roy       2   G   2009   24   13.5    2010   9.1

Amar`e    1  Cf   2008   25   14.6    2011   8.0
Rondo     2   G   2009   22    9.9    2011   6.6
Rose      1   G   2011   22   13.1       
Bynum     2   C   2012   24    8.0       
Dwight    1   C   2011   25   14.4    2012   7.7

all-NBA  tm  pos  peak   age   WS     half   WS
D Lee     3   F   2010   26   10.3    2013   9.1
D Will    2   G   2013   28   10.9       
Noah      1   C   2014   28   11.2       

Some of these later entries have a decent chance of returning to >half their peak selves; they're just candidates, for now.
All last/half ages are 29 or less.

[Mike G]

If we include mere All Stars, we have also: Fat Lever, Kevin Duckworth, Jayson Williams, Alvin Robertson, Josh Howard, Antoine Walker, Glenn Robinson, Cedric Ceballos, Jameer Nelson, BJ Armstrong, Danny Granger, Steve Francis, Michael Redd, Gerald Wallace, Kenny Anderson, Baron Davis, Sharif Abdur-Rahim, Mookie Blaylock, Rashard Lewis.

Between these 19, and the 21 or so who were also all-NBA -- it looks like 178 players have been named to All-Star teams, 1990-2014 -- Almost 1/4 of them don't make it to age 30 with even half of their peak productivity.
http://bkref.com/tiny/YR0eo
Other guys are actually peaking at 30 or later.

[J.E.]

A lot of (microfracture) surgery on that list

[Mike G]

I'd meant to take Bernard King out, since he was almost an earlier era -- he snuck in by making all-NBA in 1991, culminating his comeback.
In the '80s, and '70s, we'd see a lot of careers derailed by drug abuse.
Meanwhile, I did not list Reggie Lewis and Drazen Petrovic, though they fit the definitions in some sense.

Several of those All Stars were marginally so. All-NBA implies some level of greatness, so it's more expected that you'll still be at least semi-great at age 30. Besides physical breakdown, we have cases of just getting out of shape; head cases; lack of focus or learning new skills? Perhaps starting too young is a harbinger of early decline.

[Crow]

A lot of players who played / went inside a lot. None of them were predominant or solely stand outside shooters. Going inside causes wear... and tear.

[Mike G]

That's true. It's also likely that stand-around shooters will not tend to be all-Stars, and esp. not all-NBA.

Fans and commentators and analysts often point out how effective it is to take the ball inside: Get high% shots and free throws! It's amazing sometimes when a player bounces up after being taken down in the act of shooting. We readily forget the punishment he just got. Nobody is indestructible, and it was a conversation here about all-time rankings of players, when I suggested, "Careers end suddenly all the time". People assume LeBron will go on as ever for another 8 or 10 years; the next logical leap is to give him another umpteen thousand points, 4 to 6 more Finals, etc.

Anyway, it looks as if roughly one all-NBA career per year is either ended or seriously curtailed before the age of 30; an additional mere /former all-star has a similar fater.
After 30, of course, you're on borrowed time. Serious injuries are even more likely to be permanent.