Warriors playoff performances compared to SRS differentials
Warriors playoff performances compared to SRS differentials
In 2015 playoffs the Warriors outperformed the simple regular season SRS differential with their series opponents in 3 of 4 series, albeit by only an average of plus 1.1 pts per game. In 2016 they underperformed in 3 of 4 series by an average of -2.2 pts per game. Two playoffs doesn't make for a "trend" necessarily. But neither playoffs on average showed much elevation of play compared to regular season. 4 over performances, 4 underperformances doesn't seem that great, though I haven't checked it for other titlewinners. It is wins that matter, not margins; but average differentials hint at expected win outcomes. With home court advantage they probably should have been expected to do a little better than simple SRS differential. The yr to yr performance changes could be taken down to 4 factors level or even greater detail. How much was decline by Warriors, better fight by and less injuries for other teams vs. "luck" / "randomness" / referee "influence"? Would have to study harder to attempt a serious answer.