2017-8 projection for 76ers

[Crow]

Just curious, how many wins do people project for them next season? I haven't tried to estimate yet. I know "the future" is the focus but how much progress do they make?

[jgoldstein34]

Right now, my model has them at 37-38 wins. It's pretty early though, so free agency and draft pics can and will make a huge different from this point. Projections from this early are normally an indicator, but not a good predictor. With the model saying 37-38 right now, I'd put a range for expectations from 30-42. I don't expect them to have any big free agent moves to really add to their win total, so not much room to go up from this point.

The biggest error for them will come from Embiid minutes projection and Simmons overall projection. My model gives Embiid 1300 minutes at this point and pegs Simmons to add about 4.5 wins. Those 2 factors will cause Philly to have a pretty large spread for wins next year.

[Crow]

Thanks for reply. I'll probably have something further to say later.

[Crow]

Low 30s would disappoint many. Playoffs would satisfy. 5 wins could make a big PR difference.

[jgoldstein34]

Let's say they have to win ~41 games to make the playoffs next year? I think it's possible, but very dependent on if Embiid can stay healthy. 25 mpg for 70 games would get them there. 25 mpg for 40 games might not be enough.

[Crow]

Team defensive efficiency ranking above or below 20th? Could make a case fir either. I lean toward it slipping back to 20th or worse from 16th this season. Embid really helped. I am thinking Simmons and his style of play going to hurt some or a lot.

[jgoldstein34]

I'd say better than 20th, probably in a similar 13-17th range as last year. The key is how much embiid plays. I agree that Simmons, plus whoever they draft this year, will probably hurt them defensively, but if Embiid is able to play 60 games at 25 mpg instead of 30, it should counteract it. The DRTG when he played was 102.1, which is fantastic. Even with him sharing a lot of those minutes with Simmons, should still be able to keep the team about average on D, if not a bit above.

[Crow]

"J.J. Redick has agreed upon a one-year, $23 million deal with the Philadelphia 76ers."

Ha, ha, ha.

[Crow]

Amir Johnson, good deal. Loss for Celtics.

[jgoldstein34]

I like both deals for the sixers so far. They had so much cap space that spending above market value on one year deals has virtually no opportunity costs.

[Crow]

Except in the case of the Redick deal for other, better "likely possible" deals.

[jgoldstein34]

I'm not sure I see a better possible deal out there. They had to overpay to make it a single year AND overpay to bring a useful player to a rebuilding team. Didn't hear rumors about anyone else wanting or being willing to go to the 76ers on a single year deal.

[Crow]

Nick Young might have. Dion might have wanted to come for less per season. Korver would have been cheaper.

[jgoldstein34]

I think I'd rather have JJ than any of those guys. It's a 1 year deal and they have virtually unlimited cap space.

[Crow]

I would have preferred Korver on what he got or 50% more or maybe 100%. I would have taken Young at the modest he is likely to get. Dion would have taken multi-year probably but we'll see where it lands.

Redick is getting one of the highest 1 yr deals ever, I think. His RPM will probably remain neutral or drop. He might win a few games with a few well timed baskets. Maybe even playoffs. If Colangelo is happy with his work, ok, whatever.