2019-20 team win projection contest

[Mike G]

A contest suddenly tight

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.  avg err   rmse
lisp   5.45   7.6
Crow   5.61   8.0
avg.   5.78   7.9
bbst   5.90   7.8
cali   5.92   7.6
trzu   6.00   7.6
emin   6.02   9.7
sndi   6.09   8.5
gold   6.12   7.9
RyRi   6.13   8.1
shad   6.30   8.5
KPel   6.33   8.4
.538   6.70   8.8
vegas  6.72   8.3
dtka   6.75   8.9
ncs.   7.48   9.3
Rd11   7.58   9.6
Mike   8.45  10.2
19re   8.58  10.8

Up to exponent 2.23, liminal space is in 1st; from 2.24 to 4.5 it's tarrazu; 4.6 to 11.9 is caliban
At the 2.2 power, I am out of last place; at e=12 and up, I am the leader: My biggest error is on GS, and everyone else's is bigger.

Current performance projects the Bucks to win 68 games -- 19-3 record with 12.0 SRS -- while the regressed b-r.com system says merely 63.
Dubs looking at 17 or 21 respectively.

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LAL   60      Mil   65
LAC   57      Tor   59
Dal   57      Bos   55
Hou   52      Mia   53
Den   51      Phl   50
Uta   44      Ind   49
Phx   41      Orl   41
Min   38      Brk   38

OKC   38      Det   37
Por   37      Was   33
Sac   34      Chi   31
NOP   32      Cha   28
SAS   32      Cle   26
Mem   26      Atl   24
GSW   19      NYK   22

[Crow]

I might be able to beat lisp. Cavs going 1 - 10 recently is helping with perhaps my biggest gamble.

[Mike G]

Going just by performance to date, with no accounting for future strength of schedule, Crow is in 1st.
But with half of the weight going to b-r.com's projections, which are regressed toward .500 and include coming SOS, it's like this:

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.  avg err   rmse
lisp   5.79   7.8
Crow   5.88   8.2
cali   5.95   7.9
bbst   6.07   8.0
avg.   6.12   8.3
trzu   6.20   7.8
emin   6.32   9.9
RyRi   6.35   8.4
sndi   6.37   8.8
gold   6.38   8.2
shad   6.48   8.7
vegas  6.74   8.4
KPel   6.87   8.7
.538   6.88   8.9
dtka   7.12   9.2
ncs.   7.79   9.8
Rd11   8.15  10.0
Mike   8.62  10.6
19re   8.88  11.1

In the last 3 weeks, average errors have worsened by a full 1.0 . The bottom 5 individuals are at or very near worst of the season.

As b-r.com relaxes their regression to the mean, teams look like they really are that good or bad:

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LAL   62      Mil   67
Dal   57      Bos   56
LAC   57      Tor   56
Hou   53      Mia   54
Den   50      Phl   53
Uta   43      Ind   47
Phx   43      Orl   40
OKC   41      Brk   40

Por   37      Det   38
Sac   37      Was   32
Min   35      Chi   30
SAS   33      Cha   27
NOP   29      Atl   26
Mem   26      Cle   23
GSW   20      NYK   19

With Griffin back, the Pistons look serious.
Kings and Blazers move up as Wolves sink. Thunder seem to be real.

[Crow]

I like my numbers in the East compared to lisp. He might do better in West but I think my edge in the East will be bigger. Someone might pass us both. I haven't looked close at others yet.

[Mike G]

Crow picks up by .23 overnight

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.  avg err   rmse
Crow   5.65   8.1
lisp   5.69   7.7
cali   5.87   7.8
avg.   6.02   8.2
bbst   6.05   8.0
trzu   6.14   7.7
sndi   6.15   8.7
emin   6.22   9.8
gold   6.24   8.1
RyRi   6.34   8.3
shad   6.43   8.7
vegas  6.69   8.3
KPel   6.76   8.7
.538   6.83   8.9
dtka   7.04   9.1
ncs.   7.67   9.7
Rd11   8.04   9.9
Mike   8.65  10.5
19re   8.85  11.1

Others lead with different exponents:

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. exponent    leader
0.01 - 0.34  eminence
0.35 - 1.10   Crow
1.11 - 2.11 liminal space
2.12 - 7.1   tarrazu
7.2 - 11.2   caliban
11.3 -        Mike

emin is worst at e > 2.28, and I am worst below that point.
emin also has 7 guesses which are within 1.0 of current projections. Crow is within 2 on an astonishing 15 of 30.
emin within 5 on 19 teams.

EDIT Dec.16
With Sunday's games, lisp avg error jumps by 0.17, while Crow diminishes by the same amount.

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.  avg err   rmse
Crow   5.53   8.2
lisp   5.86   7.9
cali   5.91   8.0
avg.   6.10   8.3
bbst   6.27   8.2
trzu   6.30   8.0
gold   6.31   8.3
sndi   6.31   8.9
shad   6.36   8.8
RyRi   6.36   8.5
emin   6.52  10.0
KPel   6.55   8.8
vegas  6.61   8.4
.538   7.07   9.1
dtka   7.28   9.4
ncs.   7.83   9.8
Rd11   8.12   9.9
Mike   8.64  10.5
19re   8.82  11.1

Crow's error is his best of the season; worst mark so far for bbstats, dtkavana, and 538.
Separation between top and bottom is almost a season high.

These are currently projected team wins:

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LAL   63      Mil   67
LAC   57      Bos   54
Dal   56      Tor   54
Hou   53      Mia   54
Den   52      Phl   52
Uta   44      Ind   50
Phx   40      Brk   41
OKC   40      Orl   39

Sac   37      Det   39
Por   36      Chi   33
Min   34      Was   30
SAS   32      Cha   29
Mem   29      Cle   24
NOP   28      Atl   24
GSW   18      NYK   21

EDIT Dec 24
It's turning into a rout. Crow's lead over #2 is the largest of the season, as is the difference between top and bottom.

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.   avg err   rmse
Crow   5.37   7.72
lisp   5.84   7.70
bbst   6.02   8.02
cali   6.07   7.75
avg.   6.23   8.14
emin   6.25   9.76
gold   6.26   7.91
RyRi   6.26   8.18
trzu   6.45   7.73
sndi   6.47   8.66
shad   6.54   8.58
.538   6.71   8.91
vegas  6.75   8.22
KPel   6.84   8.81
dtka   7.22   9.13
ncs.   7.77   9.61
Rd11   8.64   10.0
Mike   8.88   10.6
19re   8.99   10.9

Crow had some pretty radical predictions on a number of teams: highest on 7 and low on 6. How has that worked out?
Ranking the teams by how much over their expectations -- defined as the avg of our guesses -- and Crow's departure from that avg:

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over  tm  Cro
14   Dal   -1
12   Mil    5
10   LAL    1
10   Mia    9
10   Bos    6
9    Tor    7
8    Ind    7
6    LAC   -5
5    OKC   -5
3    Den    6
2    Cle   -9
2    Phx   -2
1    Brk    1
1    Cha    1
.3   Phl   .4
-1   Hou   -4
-1   Was   -1
-2   Mem   -3
-2   Sac    4
-3   Det   -1
-4   Chi   -3
-4   Por    4
-5   Orl   -2
-5   NYK    3
-5   Uta   -4
-7   SAS    2
-8   Min   -9
-9   Atl   -4
-12  NOP   -4
-26  GSW   .2

Crow's on the right side on 10 of 15 overachieving teams, and all but 4 of the unders.

[jgoldstein34]

FYI to all, I replicated the sheet someone put together last year to track the contest:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

[Mike G]

FYI to all, I replicated the sheet someone put together last year to track the contest:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Very cool. Does it update daily? What is the source of current projections?

[jgoldstein34]

Updates daily. Used the sources the sheet last year did so an average of TeamRank, 538 and BBR as well as current wins + average of our preseason projection pace for remaining games.

[Crow]

Every unit of error being equal in weight is how I approached the contest and see the scoring.

[Mike G]

Updates daily. Used the sources the sheet last year did so an average of TeamRank, 538 and BBR as well as current wins + average of our preseason projection pace for remaining games.

Does it enhance the accuracy of win projections to suppose the Dubs are gonna win 46 games? or the Mavs should win 42?
Or does this factor diminish over time? At what point in the season is the Celtics' remaining win% more likely to be 75% than 58% ?

[jgoldstein34]

Honestly didn't put any thought into it haha. Someone built this last year and used this method, just copied it over to this year and automated it.

Also want to be clear what I mean. So using the Warriors for example, this is how the sites included have them:

538 - 25 wins
BBall Ref - 22.3
TeamRankings - 24.7

The 4th method (current wins + average preseason win projection pace for remaining games) has them at 30.4.

It's not just straight preseason win projection being included. I haven't done any work into if it makes sense to include in the average with the other 3 but it's relatively similar to the more sophisticated methods.

[Mike G]

Crow keeps seeing reduced error, now the lowest anyone's had all year.

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.  avg err	rmse
Crow	5.16	7.30
lisp	5.57	7.26
bbst	5.70	7.61
cali	5.80	7.26
avg.	5.85	7.66
gold	5.89	7.42
RyRi	5.99	7.69
sndi	6.06	8.18
emin	6.06	9.28
trzu	6.08	7.29
shad	6.16	8.12
.538	6.47	8.47
vegas	6.51	7.78
KPel	6.65	8.40
dtka	6.81	8.64
ncs.	7.41	9.17
Rd11	8.22	9.61
Mike	8.58	10.2
19re	8.69	10.5

... relative to these projected wins:

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LAL   59      Mil   67
LAC   57      Bos   59
Dal   57      Mia   54
Hou   53      Tor   54
Den   53      Phl   52
Uta   46      Ind   50
OKC   42      Brk   39
Por   38      Orl   39

Phx   35      Det   35
SAS   34      Chi   33
Sac   34      Was   30
Min   31      Cha   28
Mem   30      Cle   26
NOP   30      NYK   24
GSW   23      Atl   20

By performance to date, East teams are projected to avg 40.6 wins, vs 41.4 for the West. This is about 1/5 of the disparity we/avg predicted.
There's a .37 correlation between our E/W ratios and our avg error size.

[Crow]

Thanks for the updates.

[Mike G]

new year, new/old leader

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.  avg err   rmse
lisp   5.49   7.1
Crow   5.51   7.4
gold   5.71   7.3
bbst   5.72   7.4
cali   5.82   7.1
avg.   5.84   7.5
emin   5.87   9.1
RyRi   6.11   7.6
trzu   6.11   7.2
sndi   6.11   8.1
.538   6.19   8.2
shad   6.32   8.1
vegas  6.62   7.8
KPel   6.65   8.4
dtka   6.71   8.4
ncs.   7.05   8.8
Rd11   8.05   9.4
Mike   8.54  10.2
19re   8.69  10.5

Over and under-achieving teams relative to the avg of our predictions:

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over   tm   pre  pro
12.7   Dal   42   55
11.6   Mil   56   67
10.8   LAL   49   60
+9.7   Bos   48   58
+9.1   Mia   44   53
+8.7   Tor   46   55
+6.5   Ind   43   49
+6.4   LAC   51   57
+6.4   OKC   38   44
+2.4   Cle   24   26
+2.2   Phx   34   36
+0.5   Den   51   52
+0.5   Mem   30   31
-0.6   Cha   28   27
-1.1   Phl   52   51
-1.3   Brk   39   38
-1.9   Hou   55   53
-1.9   Uta   50   48
-2.2   Was   32   30
-2.8   NYK   27   24
-3.1   Chi   37   34
-4.0   Sac   36   32
-4.5   Det   37   33
-5.5   Orl   43   37
-5.5   SAS   42   36
-5.8   Por   42   37
-7.1   Min   39   32
-8.1   NOP   41   33
-9.2   Atl   29   20
-23.1  GSW   46   23

Final column is projected wins.

Roughly every 9th day rankings:

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date: N7  16  25  D5  14  23  J1
lisp   1   4   1   1   1   2   1
Crow  14  12   6   2   2   1   2
gold   6   7   2   9  10   6   3
bbst   -   -   3   4   5   3   4
cali   5   3   7   5   3   4   5

avg.   4   2   4   3   4   5   6
emin   3   5  10   7   8   8   7
RyRi  10   9   8  10   9   7   8
trzu   2   6   5   6   6  10   9
sndi   9   8   9   8   7   9  10

date: N7  16  25  D5  14  23  J1

.538   8  11  14  13  14  13  11
shad   7  10  11  11  11  11  12
vegas 12  14  13  14  12  14  13
KPel   -   -  12  12  13  12  14
dtka   -   -  15  15  15  15  15

ncs.  13  13  17  16  16  16  16
Rd11  11   1  16  17  17  17  17
Mike  15  15  18  18  18  18  18

Jan.2 quick update:

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.  avg err   rmse
Crow   5.50   7.4
lisp   5.57   7.1
gold   5.68   7.3
bbst   5.80   7.5
cali   5.81   7.1
avg.   5.82   7.5
emin   5.96   9.2
RyRi   6.01   7.6
sndi   6.09   8.1
trzu   6.12   7.2
shad   6.26   8.1
.538   6.31   8.3
vegas  6.59   7.8
KPel   6.65   8.4
dtka   6.79   8.4
ncs.   7.05   8.8
Rd11   8.07   9.4
Mike   8.47  10.1
19re   8.68  10.6

And the Spurs somehow find their way back to playoff ranking:

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LAL   60      Mil   67
LAC   57      Bos   58
Dal   55      Tor   55
Hou   53      Mia   53
Den   52      Phl   51
Uta   48      Ind   49
OKC   44      Orl   38
SAS   36      Brk   38

Phx   35      Chi   34
Por   35      Det   33
NOP   33      Was   29
Sac   32      Cha   27
Min   32      Cle   26
Mem   31      NYK   26
GSW   23      Atl   20

SA didn't play last night, but Phx and Por both lost.
Mavs now have the best SRS in the West.

Jan.4 update:
The online table linked by jgoldstein is broke due to Dal having #REF! projected wins and losses. This gives them a .667 chance of making the playoffs and puts me in 1st place!

Meanwhile, back on planet earth:

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.  avg err   rmse
lisp   5.56   7.1
Crow   5.59   7.5
gold   5.67   7.3
bbst   5.73   7.4
cali   5.75   7.2
emin   5.76   9.1
avg.   5.77   7.5
RyRi   5.93   7.6
trzu   6.03   7.1
sndi   6.06   8.1
shad   6.12   8.1
.538   6.17   8.2
vegas  6.42   7.8
KPel   6.57   8.4
dtka   6.82   8.4
ncs.   6.94   8.8
Rd11   8.05   9.4
Mike   8.44  10.1
19re   8.65  10.6

These are lowest MAE of the season for 538, vegas, and eminence.
Spurs back to #10 seed, Blazers #8

[eminence]

Primary goal is always to beat vegas, secondary is to beat the average, so feeling great about how things are going so far

Entertaining season to date as well, think the race for the 2-6 seeds in each conference will be quite interesting.