Western Conference commentary
Re: Western Conference commentary
Deep rosters have some appeal, looking long-term, providing options. But in playoffs, especially in later, more competitive games, it is still almost all about your best 9.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Kings didn't ask that much of Keegan Murray in yr 1. Just shooting, not passing or rebounding. Let's see what happens in year 2 & beyond, overall and on those secondary stats.
Imo he needs to be the clear number 3 on team for scoring, at minimum. And higher up on passing and rebounding.
Imo he needs to be the clear number 3 on team for scoring, at minimum. And higher up on passing and rebounding.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Popovich gets biggest coaching contract ever. Expect average, below average or above average results? I don't expect above average coaching performance or team performance.
Re: Western Conference commentary
What did Western Conference first round winners this spring do at factor level in that round? Every one was a clear winner on efg% and on average one other factor.
Thunder on efg% last season? 24th.
The Heat were 25th in regular season but rose to win efg% in 2 of first 3 series, aided by low turnovers. They got hot for stretches. But they lost efg% to Knicks but somehow barely got by. In finals they were crushed overhemingly by the Nuggets on efg%. I'd sure make shooting efficiency a top priority in team design.
Who in West has / is doing that? Nuggets, Kings, Warriors. 1, 2, 3 in league on efg%.
Mavs 5th, Timberwolves 8th, Clippers 11th.
Lakers were 18th, Memphis 21st, Suns 22nd. 2 got past first round but didn't have enough shooting strength to go all the way.
Will be interesting where the Suns end up on efg% next season with (hopefully for them) full seasons by Durant and Beal.
How much will the Thunder improve on efg%? Lineup management has / will have impact on that. Does lineup chaos lead to good shots or making them? It didn't at all on making shots the last 3 seasons.
If you aren't greatat shooting, you should be strong on defense. Lakers, Griz and Warriors were4th, 5th and 6th on playoff defensive efficiency. Helpful but not quite enough.
Timberwolves 12th, Suns 14th, Clippers 16th.
Two main ways to blow it.
Thunder on efg% last season? 24th.
The Heat were 25th in regular season but rose to win efg% in 2 of first 3 series, aided by low turnovers. They got hot for stretches. But they lost efg% to Knicks but somehow barely got by. In finals they were crushed overhemingly by the Nuggets on efg%. I'd sure make shooting efficiency a top priority in team design.
Who in West has / is doing that? Nuggets, Kings, Warriors. 1, 2, 3 in league on efg%.
Mavs 5th, Timberwolves 8th, Clippers 11th.
Lakers were 18th, Memphis 21st, Suns 22nd. 2 got past first round but didn't have enough shooting strength to go all the way.
Will be interesting where the Suns end up on efg% next season with (hopefully for them) full seasons by Durant and Beal.
How much will the Thunder improve on efg%? Lineup management has / will have impact on that. Does lineup chaos lead to good shots or making them? It didn't at all on making shots the last 3 seasons.
If you aren't greatat shooting, you should be strong on defense. Lakers, Griz and Warriors were4th, 5th and 6th on playoff defensive efficiency. Helpful but not quite enough.
Timberwolves 12th, Suns 14th, Clippers 16th.
Two main ways to blow it.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Sports books have Warriors and Lakers fairly high on win projections for next season.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Somebody in top 11 last season will not be top 10 this season. Mavs chose to be 11th then. Who will fall out or opt out this time? Will any of the bottom 4 rise and force another out?
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The position of greatest weakness for the Jazz was SG. They did stuff there- giving a new contract to one incumbent, retainf another, drafting some new rookies on top of ones draftednext season. But did they improve? I am skeptical.
Re: Western Conference commentary
At factor level, Spurs were only good at offensive rebounding and lower rate of fouling last season. Will they maintain those strengths and / or get considerably better at anything else next season? I am skeptical
Should they maintain the league's fastest pace? Probably not. Will they anyways? Good chance. One 9f the weakest in league at PG and did not get better.
Should they maintain the league's fastest pace? Probably not. Will they anyways? Good chance. One 9f the weakest in league at PG and did not get better.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Pelicans, only 1 lineup much over 1.5 minutes per game last season. 4 of 5 most used were positive, but not the by far biggest one.
Two distinct mostly moderately strong sets of player pairs:
Ingram, Jones, Murphy.
McCollum, Nance, Marshall, Alvarado.
Strongest pairs in second group... which played less.
Some mixes of the groups worked as trios, most especially with Nance involved.
So stuff to work with but also big things to change.
Why do they need changing? Why was low lineup concentration and under-utilization of the better pairs chosen / tolerated / maintained?
Coulda / probably shoulda been better. -4 actual wins - expected.
Top 11 had 6 below or very much below league average on efg%. Probably got to improve that to improve.
Two distinct mostly moderately strong sets of player pairs:
Ingram, Jones, Murphy.
McCollum, Nance, Marshall, Alvarado.
Strongest pairs in second group... which played less.
Some mixes of the groups worked as trios, most especially with Nance involved.
So stuff to work with but also big things to change.
Why do they need changing? Why was low lineup concentration and under-utilization of the better pairs chosen / tolerated / maintained?
Coulda / probably shoulda been better. -4 actual wins - expected.
Top 11 had 6 below or very much below league average on efg%. Probably got to improve that to improve.
Re: Western Conference commentary
A recent article featuring John Hollinger's answers about the Pelicans only briefly mentioned Larry Nance as a possible trade candidate. Nothing about him as a substitute for Valančiūnas or playing beside Zion Williamson.
Nothing about his recovery to +2 BPM (5th time in career) or pulling the 32nd best Darko projection in the league, including 14th best on Defensive DPM. His DPM improvement last season was about top 15% and took him to his career best projection. But not actively discussed.
Vastly better raw on / off than JVal. 17 of his 22 most used lineups positive. Positive pairs with all but a few players. And... +14.3 pts / 100p with Zion in 349 minutes.
Career best TS% last season at almost 65%.
Trading Nance would be among the last things I would consider for a team trying to get over the hump now.
That is what needs to be said about Larry Nance.
Nothing about his recovery to +2 BPM (5th time in career) or pulling the 32nd best Darko projection in the league, including 14th best on Defensive DPM. His DPM improvement last season was about top 15% and took him to his career best projection. But not actively discussed.
Vastly better raw on / off than JVal. 17 of his 22 most used lineups positive. Positive pairs with all but a few players. And... +14.3 pts / 100p with Zion in 349 minutes.
Career best TS% last season at almost 65%.
Trading Nance would be among the last things I would consider for a team trying to get over the hump now.
That is what needs to be said about Larry Nance.
Re: Western Conference commentary
4 teams in east had best winning percentages against the west, followed by Nuggets, Kings, Griz, Warriors and Suns with at least 30 wins. Those 5 western teams probably will have an edge again in the next western conference playoffs.
Thunder took 11th place in west on this.
Only 5 western teams were better than .500 against the east, with Griz and Nuggets as leaders.
Clippers and Kings were only western teams with winning records for both home and away.
Griz, Nuggets and Warriors lead on home wins. Warriors really needed that with 4th worst road record overall.
Thunder took 11th place in west on this.
Only 5 western teams were better than .500 against the east, with Griz and Nuggets as leaders.
Clippers and Kings were only western teams with winning records for both home and away.
Griz, Nuggets and Warriors lead on home wins. Warriors really needed that with 4th worst road record overall.
Re: Western Conference commentary
It is too early to jockey for specific seeds, but I assume that most would prefer not to play the defending champs, moreso than other rivals. Who is second least wanted is up in the air imo.
Re: Western Conference commentary
On a small part of Lakers lineup management
https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 33301?s=20
Another case of lack of discipline / great chaos / limited systematic learning.
https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 33301?s=20
Another case of lack of discipline / great chaos / limited systematic learning.
Re: Western Conference commentary
Pelicans:
Williamson - Nance, +14.3 / 100p in 349 minutes. 2nd best raw pair on team over 250 minutes out of 52 qualifying pairs. 38th in that group on utilization.
Alvarado - Nance about +10 in 600 minutes. 20th in utilization.
Trio of them together? Almost +25 in a bit over 150 minutes. 62nd in trio utilization.
Very best trio over 150 minutes.
Every combination of 2 on court of the 3 (overall 900 minutes total) is at least +5/100p, with the trio being massively the best.
Adding McCollum into a quad with these guys is great. Trios with 3 of 4 generally strong too. Adding JVal into these groups is often a buzzkill.
Ingram with these 3 tend to be fairly meh though some work when not with JVal.
JVal in only 2 of 7 best 5 mans in 20 most used and in none of the 8 best 20 most used trios (with bigger sample sizes).
Williamson - Nance, +14.3 / 100p in 349 minutes. 2nd best raw pair on team over 250 minutes out of 52 qualifying pairs. 38th in that group on utilization.
Alvarado - Nance about +10 in 600 minutes. 20th in utilization.
Trio of them together? Almost +25 in a bit over 150 minutes. 62nd in trio utilization.
Very best trio over 150 minutes.
Every combination of 2 on court of the 3 (overall 900 minutes total) is at least +5/100p, with the trio being massively the best.
Adding McCollum into a quad with these guys is great. Trios with 3 of 4 generally strong too. Adding JVal into these groups is often a buzzkill.
Ingram with these 3 tend to be fairly meh though some work when not with JVal.
JVal in only 2 of 7 best 5 mans in 20 most used and in none of the 8 best 20 most used trios (with bigger sample sizes).
Re: Western Conference commentary
If Wembanyama gets / takes high usage , Jones and Sochan will probably decline and should at least moderately. Perhaps even Johnson and Vassell a bit Almost everybody else with probably be feel some pressure to reduce. Will they? Collins probably shouldn't cut back on usage but might.
Playing the "best 5" will especially cause a usage crunch. Might be a way to check Wembanyama's usage... but he might not accept it.
The last cut isn't obvious but will probably be a player worse or older than Cam Payne.
Playing the "best 5" will especially cause a usage crunch. Might be a way to check Wembanyama's usage... but he might not accept it.
The last cut isn't obvious but will probably be a player worse or older than Cam Payne.