2011-12 Rookies

[Mike G]

Another surge in rookie performance (and minutes) has them heading for 67 equivalent wins.

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e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.5   Irving,Kyrie   Cle   28   .562   25.7   5.0   7.3   3.5   1.1   4.6   .8   1.93
6.2   Rubio,Ricky    Min   32   .523   13.3   5.2  10.5   2.6   2.6   3.7   .2   1.44
4.5   Brooks,Marshon NJN   29   .561   19.0   6.1   2.1   2.8   1.3   1.7   .3   1.20
3.3   Walker,Kemba   Cha   24   .470   16.4   4.4   3.7   1.8   1.7   2.4   .3   1.00
3.1 Parsons,Chandler Hou   24   .503   12.4   9.6   2.3   3.5   1.9   1.4   .9   1.09

3.1   Leonard,Kawhi  SAS   24   .519   12.2   8.3   1.3   1.7   1.8    .9   .5    .92
2.8   Shumpert,Iman  NYK   32   .470   15.0   4.2   4.1   3.3   2.9   3.1   .4    .91
2.7   Leuer,Jon      Mil   19   .582   15.1   7.7   1.6   3.7    .7   1.1  1.1   1.02
2.6 Thompson,Tristan Cle   18   .468   15.3  10.3    .3   4.1    .4   2.6  2.2   1.04
2.6  Morris,Markieff Phx   21   .574   14.4   8.2   1.6   4.9   1.3   2.0   .8    .88

2.4   Cole,Norris    Mia   22   .477   15.9   2.9   5.5   4.2   1.9   3.5   .0    .80
2.4   Knight,Brandon Det   31   .521   14.7   4.9   3.2   3.2   1.1   3.9   .2    .56
2.3 Williams,Derrick Min   19   .481   14.3   7.6   1.5   2.5   1.2   1.8   .6    .88
2.0   Kanter,Enes    Uta   14   .512   12.6  13.1    .4   3.2    .7   1.9  1.0   1.06
1.8   Vucevic,Nikola Phi   13   .560   13.2  11.4   2.4   6.4   1.2   1.4  1.8   1.26

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.8  Harrellson,Josh NYK   19   .517   10.5   8.4    .9   2.3   1.3   1.2  1.0    .70
1.6   Burks,Alec     Uta   12   .481   19.0   5.4   2.1   3.1    .9   1.9   .2   1.07
1.3   Thomas,Isaiah  Sac   14   .500   15.1   3.4   3.5   1.2   1.7   3.0   .4    .75
1.2   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos   11   .625    8.7   9.8   1.8   7.5    .6   1.8  5.6    .97
1.2   Ayon,Gustavo   NOH   11   .681   15.4  10.4   3.2   3.6   1.6   2.8  1.7   1.42

1.0   Harris,Tobias  Mil   17   .538   17.5   6.7   1.5   5.2   1.2   3.2   .5    .82
0.8   Johnson,Ivan   Atl   14   .500   12.8   8.8    .7   5.8   1.6   2.4   .4    .61
0.7  Biyombo,Bismack Cha   12   .471    7.7   9.4    .3   5.8    .4   2.2  3.6    .46
0.7   Thompson,Klay  GSW   18   .535   13.0   3.3   2.7   5.1    .8   2.6   .3    .28
0.7   Pargo,Jeremy   Mem   17   .385   10.3   3.2   5.3   2.8    .9   2.4   .0    .39
0.7  Jenkins,Charles GSW   12   .521   10.1   2.2   5.4   5.7   1.6    .8   .3    .49

Fredette can't seem to stay on the radar, and he currently ranks 33rd, with eW/484 = .14
This is at 21.4% of the season.

[Mike G]

Several rookies have hit a rough patch, if not a wall: T Thompson, D Williams, M Morris ...
dropping expected eWins to 62 for the year.

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e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.8   Irving,Kyrie   Cle   28   .573   25.2   4.8   6.9   3.5   1.0   4.9   .7   1.78
6.2   Rubio,Ricky    Min   33   .485   12.7   5.1  10.4   2.7   2.7   3.8   .2   1.36
4.2   Brooks,Marshon NJN   30   .545   19.2   6.2   2.0   2.9   1.3   1.6   .4   1.23
3.3 Parsons,Chandler Hou   25   .488   11.8   9.2   2.6   3.5   1.9   1.2   .9   1.07
3.1   Walker,Kemba   Cha   26   .454   15.6   5.0   3.3   1.7   1.4   2.8   .5    .87

3.0   Shumpert,Iman  NYK   31   .444   14.1   4.5   4.7   3.6   2.8   3.3   .5    .90
2.7   Leonard,Kawhi  SAS   24   .495   11.4   8.5   1.2   1.8   1.7   1.0   .5    .82
2.7   Knight,Brandon Det   32   .519   15.5   4.6   3.3   3.2   1.0   3.6   .2    .61
2.3 Williams,Derrick Min   20   .493   14.2   7.6   1.6   2.3   1.0   1.8   .5    .84
2.2  Morris,Markieff Phx   21   .543   12.9   8.4   1.6   4.8   1.1   2.2   .8    .75

2.1   Leuer,Jon      Mil   17   .569   14.3   7.7   1.8   3.8    .7   1.1  1.0    .97
2.0   Vucevic,Nikola Phi   15   .535   13.6  11.3   2.0   5.0   1.0   1.2  1.6   1.31
2.0 Thompson,Tristan Cle   18   .471   14.5   9.5    .2   3.4    .5   2.5  1.8    .89
1.8   Cole,Norris    Mia   21   .468   14.4   2.8   4.8   3.5   1.6   3.0   .0    .63
1.6   Kanter,Enes    Uta   14   .524   11.6  11.8    .3   3.1    .6   2.0  1.1    .83

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.3  Harrellson,Josh NYK   18   .512    9.9   8.1    .8   2.3   1.4   1.4  1.0    .58
1.2   Burks,Alec     Uta   12   .481   16.6   4.9   1.6   2.7    .7   1.7   .2    .74
1.1   Ayon,Gustavo   NOH   10   .696   16.4   8.0   2.3   3.5   2.0   2.3  1.6   1.32
1.0   Thomas,Isaiah  Sac   16   .472   12.3   3.2   4.0   1.7   1.2   2.4   .2    .49
0.9   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos    9   .587    7.9   9.3   1.5   7.7    .7   1.5  4.6    .82

0.9   Johnson,Ivan   Atl   14   .524   12.8   7.4   1.1   5.2   1.3   2.1   .5    .59
0.8  Biyombo,Bismack Cha   13   .455    7.3   8.9    .4   5.1    .5   1.9  3.6    .49
0.8  Singleton,Chris Was   20   .503    8.2   5.8    .9   5.0   2.4   1.0   .6    .29
0.7   Harris,Tobias  Mil   13   .534   16.1   5.9   1.3   4.8   1.0   2.6   .4    .67
0.7  Fredette,Jimmer Sac   23   .479   12.3   2.0   2.9   1.8    .8   2.2   .0    .22

36 eWins from rookies in the East, 26 from the West.

[Mike G]

Kyrie Irving's eff% is tracked in this thread first at .435, then .465, .506, .517, and now .555 .

Make that .582, after a monster outing.

Rubio, meanwhile, broke a 16-67 FG run (.269 eFG%) over 6 games, with a nice game of his own.
His FG% had dropped from .461 to .373 in that span; 3FG% from .454 to .350.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2012/

Of players with 200+ minutes and 15+ FGA/36 min., the best TS% --

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> 15 FGA/36      FGA   FTA    TSA    TS%
LeBron James    18.5   9.4   22.6   .618
Mo Williams     15.1   2.4   16.2   .612
Kevin Durant    18.0   7.2   21.2   .608
Al Harrington   16.0   3.4   17.5   .603
Ryan Anderson   15.2   3.2   16.6   .592
Kyrie Irving    17.0   4.9   19.2   .591
Chris Bosh      15.3   5.6   17.8   .590
Paul Millsap    15.5   4.0   17.3   .586
Stephen Curry   15.9   1.9   16.7   .577
Andrea Bargnani 17.6   6.4   20.4   .576

Only LeBron and Durant take as many shots as Irving, and with better accuracy.
Bargnani takes more shots and is close in TS%
LaMarcus shoots a bit more, at .543. Kobe a lot more at .539

Irving has hit 81% of his FT; last year at Duke, he was 90% (8.4 FTA/36)

[Mike G]

Quick update to note that erosion of both production and minutes continues, dropping projected eWins to just 58.6 (from 67 less than 2 weeks ago).

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e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.7   Irving,Kyrie   Cle   28   .590   26.9   5.1   6.6   3.4   1.1   4.6   .6   1.98
6.3   Rubio,Ricky    Min   34   .490   12.6   5.1  10.1   2.5   2.4   3.4   .2   1.35
3.8   Brooks,Marshon NJN   29   .535   18.9   5.9   2.0   3.0   1.3   1.7   .4   1.18
3.5   Walker,Kemba   Cha   27   .457   15.6   5.6   3.6   1.5   1.4   2.9   .6    .96
2.9 Parsons,Chandler Hou   26   .460   10.8   8.2   2.6   3.3   2.0   1.2   .8    .91

2.8   Leonard,Kawhi  SAS   25   .482   11.5   8.6   1.2   1.8   1.8   1.0   .5    .84
2.7   Shumpert,Iman  NYK   30   .439   13.6   4.3   4.5   3.8   2.7   3.2   .5    .82
2.5   Knight,Brandon Det   33   .495   14.6   4.6   3.4   3.1    .9   3.4   .2    .56
2.2   Leuer,Jon      Mil   16   .592   15.6   7.5   1.7   3.8    .7    .9  1.2   1.07
2.0  Morris,Markieff Phx   21   .519   12.4   8.6   1.4   4.9   1.0   2.1   .7    .69

1.8 Williams,Derrick Min   19   .491   13.7   7.1   1.4   2.2    .9   1.8   .4    .71
1.7   Cole,Norris    Mia   22   .463   13.6   3.0   4.7   3.2   1.5   2.8   .0    .59
1.7   Vucevic,Nikola Phi   15   .535   13.9  11.1   2.0   4.9   1.0   1.2  1.5   1.30
1.7   Kanter,Enes    Uta   14   .508   11.4  11.8    .4   2.7    .6   1.8  1.2    .84
1.6 Thompson,Tristan Cle   18   .456   13.3   9.1    .2   3.1    .5   2.5  1.9    .75

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.2   Ayon,Gustavo   NOH   11   .639   13.9   7.9   2.2   3.1   1.9   1.5  2.0   1.19
1.1  Harrellson,Josh NYK   18   .512    9.8   8.0    .8   2.2   1.3   1.3  1.0    .54
0.9   Thomas,Isaiah  Sac   16   .500   12.7   3.0   3.7   2.0   1.1   2.3   .2    .45
0.9   Johnson,Ivan   Atl   14   .524   12.9   7.1   1.2   4.8   1.4   2.2   .6    .60
0.9   Burks,Alec     Uta   11   .474   15.9   4.4   1.6   2.5    .6   1.8   .1    .62

0.7   Thompson,Klay  GSW   17   .554   13.3   2.9   2.3   4.7    .8   2.3   .5    .30
0.6  Fredette,Jimmer Sac   23   .482   12.5   1.9   2.8   1.8    .9   2.2   .0    .21
0.6   Harris,Tobias  Mil   11   .546   16.2   5.5   1.2   4.4   1.1   2.5   .4    .65
0.6   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos    9   .540    6.7   8.5   1.7   7.9    .9   1.5  4.4    .58
0.6  Biyombo,Bismack Cha   13   .458    7.0   8.5    .4   4.7    .5   1.7  3.6    .37

EDIT: OK, I mis-stated that rookie minutes have recently declined: These 25 had averaged 19.9 mpg 12 days ago, and still through last night.
The biggest reason for overall dropoff may be in their shooting%. In 12 days, Eff% has improved for just 7 of 25.
Decliners on the left, improvers on the right:

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delta    rookies         tm   T-12    T-0      delta   rookies         tm   T-12    T-0
-.085   Stiemsma,Greg   Bos   .625   .540      .028   Irving,Kyrie    Cle   .562   .590
-.055   Morris,Markieff Phx   .574   .519      .024   Johnson,Ivan    Atl   .500   .524
-.043  Parsons,Chandler Hou   .503   .460      .019   Thompson,Klay   GSW   .535   .554
-.042   Ayon,Gustavo    NOH   .681   .639      .010   Leuer,Jon       Mil   .582   .592
-.037   Leonard,Kawhi   SAS   .519   .482      .010  Williams,Derrick Min   .481   .491
-.033   Rubio,Ricky     Min   .523   .490      .008   Harris,Tobias   Mil   .538   .546
-.031   Shumpert,Iman   NYK   .470   .439      .000   Thomas,Isaiah   Sac   .500   .500
-.026   Knight,Brandon  Det   .521   .495                  
-.026   Brooks,Marshon  NJN   .561   .535                  
-.025   Vucevic,Nikola  Phi   .560   .535                  
-.014   Cole,Norris     Mia   .477   .463                  
-.013   Biyombo,Bismack Cha   .471   .458                  
-.013   Walker,Kemba    Cha   .470   .457                  
-.012  Thompson,Tristan Cle   .468   .456                  
-.007   Burks,Alec      Uta   .481   .474                  
-.005   Harrellson,Josh NYK   .517   .512                  
-.004   Kanter,Enes     Uta   .512   .508                  

Not weighting by minutes or shots, the avg season Eff% has dropped from .526 to .511 in 12 days.
Eff% = Pts/(2*FGA + FTA)

Edit #2: Jimmer Fredette had dropped off the Top25 list with an Eff% somewhere south of .450, as I recall.
He'd be atop the list of improved Eff%, one of the 7 mentioned.

[Crow]

On non-prior informed RAPM, Rubio is estimated at +2.1, Irving -0.4, Vucevic +1.1, Leuer +1.0, Parsons +1, Leonard -1.3, Brooks -1, Markieff -0.3, Ayon +0.7, Kanter
-0.3, Shumpert -1.1. Kemba Walker -3.1 and the 4th lowest estimate of those measured. Brandon Knight and Jimmer Fredette right with him at 5th and 6th worst. A pretty different sorting. Of course it will probably move this season and in thefuture season in some /many cases but how many of these early indicators will generally stay relatively high or low? I don't recall a survey of how well rookie RAPM predicts future performance, say 3rd, 4th, 5th year or career. But such a study could be done these days with Jerry's extensive and helpful prior-informed database.

Boxscore metrics miss much of player impact on teammate offense and much of player defensive impact, especially on shot defense but on their impact on thge other team defensive factors too.

Looking at rookie NBA boxscore stats, their college record and even their visual "style" I think I can often guess how their RAPM is going to look. I am not surprised that the 3 lowest performers are low for example.

[Mike G]

On non-prior informed RAPM,.. Kemba Walker -3.1 and the 4th lowest estimate of those measured. Brandon Knight and Jimmer Fredette right with him at 5th and 6th worst. ...

Is RAPM of -3 actually pretty good, average, or poor on a team with -15 pt-diff?
Is 27 mpg a reasonable amount for such a player to play on such a weak team?

[Crow]

RAPM of -3 per 48 minutes is exactly average on a team with -15 pt-diff overall for its 48 minutes of 5 men on the court (-3 * 5 = -15). When you are bad, you are mainly left with giving minutes and hoping for player development and good lineup development or discovery. But a top draft pick performing comparable to the average on his poor team mates is still significant, if it lasts.

[Mike G]

Kemba Walker, as a rookie #9 pick, can be expected to play 17.5 mpg and be worth .68 eWins per 484 minutes; this would create 1.62 eW in 66 games.

He's averaging 28 minutes, and I register his play as worth .97 eW/484; projecting to 3.7 eW for the year.

He's now started 12 of 24 games for a team that is chasing the '93 Mavs for the distinction of Worst team ever.
http://bkref.com/tiny/2cKXB

[Mike G]

A slight bounce-back in the last week has rookies projecting to 60 total eWins, at .37 of the season.

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e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.5   Irving,Kyrie   Cle   30   .574   25.6   4.6   6.2   2.9   1.0   4.0   .5   1.86
6.5   Rubio,Ricky    Min   35   .500   12.6   4.7  10.0   2.5   2.4   3.3   .2   1.36
3.7   Walker,Kemba   Cha   28   .455   15.4   5.3   3.6   1.5   1.4   2.6   .5    .97
3.0   Brooks,Marshon NJN   29   .535   18.5   5.9   1.9   3.0   1.3   1.7   .4   1.14
2.8   Knight,Brandon Det   32   .490   15.2   4.4   3.4   3.1    .8   3.1   .2    .63

2.8 Parsons,Chandler Hou   25   .450   10.8   7.8   2.5   3.4   2.1   1.3  1.1    .87
2.7   Leonard,Kawhi  SAS   24   .495   11.6   8.0   1.5   1.8   1.7   1.0   .5    .83
2.6   Shumpert,Iman  NYK   31   .429   12.1   4.6   4.9   3.8   2.4   3.2   .4    .72
2.1  Morris,Markieff Phx   21   .492   12.4   8.6   1.6   4.6   1.0   1.9   .9    .74
1.9   Leuer,Jon      Mil   15   .578   14.6   7.7   1.8   3.5    .6    .9  1.3   1.01

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.7 Williams,Derrick Min   18   .490   13.7   7.0   1.2   2.0    .8   1.8   .4    .70
1.7   Vucevic,Nikola Phi   16   .538   14.3  10.2   1.7   4.1    .8    .9  1.5   1.21
1.7   Cole,Norris    Mia   21   .471   13.9   3.0   4.3   3.2   1.3   2.7   .0    .58
1.5   Kanter,Enes    Uta   14   .518   11.5  11.1    .3   3.0    .7   1.8  1.0    .77
1.5 Thompson,Tristan Cle   17   .453   13.3   9.0    .2   3.0    .5   2.4  1.9    .75

1.4   Ayon,Gustavo   NOH   13   .587   12.4   8.9   1.5   3.4   1.8   1.4  2.2   1.07
1.3   Thomas,Isaiah  Sac   17   .524   13.5   3.3   4.0   2.3   1.0   2.3   .2    .60
1.3   Johnson,Ivan   Atl   16   .506   13.4   8.6   1.1   4.3   1.0   2.2   .8    .74
1.1   Allen,Lavoy    Phi   16   .580   14.2   8.0   2.5   4.3   1.0    .7   .3   1.03
0.9   Harris,Tobias  Mil   12   .557   17.6   5.5    .9   3.5   1.0   2.0   .5    .83

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
0.9  Harrellson,Josh NYK   18   .512    9.8   8.2    .7   2.2   1.3   1.3  1.0    .56
0.8   Burks,Alec     Uta   11   .474   15.7   4.5   1.6   2.5    .5   1.8   .1    .60
0.8   Thompson,Klay  GSW   17   .553   13.5   2.9   2.2   4.5    .9   2.0   .5    .34
0.7  Fredette,Jimmer Sac   22   .486   12.8   1.8   2.8   1.9    .8   2.2   .0    .24
0.6  Biyombo,Bismack Cha   14   .490    7.3   8.5    .4   4.9    .6   2.0  3.3    .34

0.6   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos    8   .537    6.7   9.1   1.8   7.6   1.2   1.4  4.1    .64
0.6   Faried,Kenneth Den   10   .549   15.8  15.0    .6   4.9    .0   1.6  4.4   1.79
0.6   Johnson,Jajuan Bos    5   .633   22.5   6.6    .5   1.5    .5    .5  1.5   1.59
0.6   Mack,Shelvin   Was   11   .497    9.9   3.8   3.9   1.6   1.1   1.4   .0    .40
0.5  Jenkins,Charles GSW   10   .506   10.0   2.4   5.3   5.3   1.5    .8   .3    .48

The list has been extended to 30, to catch some guys who have lately gotten some minutes.
Minutes are per game played -- not per team game -- as these are relevant to adjustments in the rates shown.

[Mike G]

Top rookies through .503 of the season.

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e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.6   Irving,Kyrie   Cle   31   .561   23.3   4.4   6.0   2.9   1.0   3.8   .7   1.72
5.8   Rubio,Ricky    Min   35   .484   12.5   4.5   9.3   2.4   2.5   3.6   .2   1.23
4.1   Walker,Kemba   Cha   29   .469   16.0   4.9   3.6   1.5   1.3   2.2   .4   1.03
3.1   Knight,Brandon Det   32   .507   15.7   4.5   3.7   3.1    .8   3.0   .2    .72
3.1   Brooks,Marshon NJN   30   .520   17.7   5.6   2.3   3.0   1.3   2.2   .4   1.04

2.9 Parsons,Chandler Hou   27   .469   11.6   7.4   2.6   3.1   1.7   1.5   .8    .84
2.7   Leonard,Kawhi  SAS   24   .514   11.2   7.8   1.4   1.9   1.9   1.0   .6    .81
2.4  Morris,Markieff Phx   21   .478   12.9   8.2   1.5   4.5   1.3   1.5  1.2    .86
2.4   Shumpert,Iman  NYK   30   .446   13.1   4.3   4.4   3.8   2.4   3.0   .3    .71
2.3   Ayon,Gustavo   NOH   18   .578   12.3  10.2   1.7   3.7   1.8   1.5  1.7   1.19

2.1   Vucevic,Nikola Phi   17   .552   14.8   9.6   1.1   4.3   1.0   1.4  1.6   1.20
1.9   Thomas,Isaiah  Sac   20   .533   14.2   3.6   4.5   2.6    .9   2.1   .2    .73
1.8 Williams,Derrick Min   18   .496   13.2   7.3   1.0   2.0    .8   1.7   .7    .71
1.7 Thompson,Tristan Cle   19   .435   11.9   9.9    .3   3.2    .6   2.1  1.9    .82
1.6   Faried,Kenneth Den   17   .584   16.0  13.6    .5   4.0   1.0   1.6  2.5   1.73

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.6   Leuer,Jon      Mil   14   .547   14.0   7.0   1.6   4.1    .7    .8  1.1    .89
1.5   Kanter,Enes    Uta   14   .500   10.8  11.4    .2   2.5    .7   1.8  1.0    .78
1.5   Cole,Norris    Mia   21   .482   13.9   2.7   4.3   3.5   1.2   2.4   .0    .51
1.5   Allen,Lavoy    Phi   18   .502   12.2   9.9   2.1   4.6    .9    .9   .9   1.00
1.2  Biyombo,Bismack Cha   17   .474    7.3   9.4    .5   4.2    .6   1.9  3.3    .56

0.9   Johnson,Ivan   Atl   14   .483   11.8   8.2   1.0   4.2   1.2   2.4   .6    .54
0.7   Thompson,Klay  GSW   17   .560   13.5   3.2   2.2   4.1    .9   2.0   .4    .33
0.7   Burks,Alec     Uta   12   .486   14.7   4.5   1.5   3.0    .8   1.5   .1    .53
0.7   Harris,Tobias  Mil   11   .547   15.8   5.6   1.0   3.0    .9   1.8   .7    .76
0.7  Harrellson,Josh NYK   18   .512    9.8   7.9    .7   2.2   1.3   1.3  1.0    .56

Projection is for rookies to total just over 60 eWins; East 34, West 26

[Mike G]

Rookie shooting and minutes have continued to improve/increase, leading them to total some 64 projected equivalent wins for the season, which is now 59% complete.
Rubio's shooting% is still in free fall.

Code: Select all

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.4   Irving,Kyrie   Cle   31  .566   22.8   4.2   5.8   1.1   3.5   .5   1.68
5.4   Rubio,Ricky    Min   34  .465   11.5   4.5   9.3   2.4   3.4   .2   1.16
4.0   Walker,Kemba   Cha   29  .470   15.9   4.6   3.8   1.4   2.3   .4   1.03
2.9   Knight,Brandon Det   32  .497   15.1   4.3   3.5    .7   2.8   .1    .68
2.8   Brooks,Marshon NJN   31  .528   16.6   5.0   2.4   1.3   2.4   .4    .91

2.7   Leonard,Kawhi  SAS   23  .535   11.8   7.9   1.3   2.0   1.0   .6    .88
2.7 Parsons,Chandler Hou   27  .492   11.6   6.6   2.5   1.6   1.4   .8    .77
2.4 Williams,Derrick Min   20  .517   14.8   7.8    .9    .8   1.7   .7    .91
2.3  Morris,Markieff Phx   20  .457   12.5   8.2   1.7   1.3   1.6  1.2    .85
2.3   Vucevic,Nikola Phi   18  .518   15.1   9.8   1.1    .9   1.3  1.7   1.24

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.3   Thomas,Isaiah  Sac   21  .536   14.8   3.7   4.8   1.2   2.6   .2    .83
2.3   Ayon,Gustavo   NOH   20  .571   12.4   9.0   1.7   1.9   1.6  1.6   1.08
2.2   Faried,Kenneth Den   19  .609   16.3  13.2    .8   1.0   1.4  2.0   1.71
2.2   Shumpert,Iman  NYK   30  .454   12.6   4.1   4.3   2.4   2.8   .3    .68
2.0 Thompson,Tristan Cle   20  .429   11.5  10.2    .5    .6   1.8  1.9    .87

1.7   Kanter,Enes    Uta   14  .483   11.2  11.7    .2    .8   1.7   .9    .86
1.6   Cole,Norris    Mia   21  .477   14.2   2.7   4.6   1.3   2.8   .0    .57
1.4   Allen,Lavoy    Phi   17  .491   11.5   9.5   1.9    .9   1.3  1.0    .89
1.3  Biyombo,Bismack Cha   17  .470    7.5  10.0    .5    .6   2.2  3.4    .61
1.3   Leuer,Jon      Mil   13  .532   13.4   7.0   1.5    .7   1.0  1.0    .80
1.3   Thompson,Klay  GSW   17  .559   15.3   3.7   2.1    .9   2.2   .4    .54

Minutes are per game played, not per team game. Faried has appeared in just 20 of 40 games.
Faried is the only rookie ranking above Irving in eWins/484 min -- 1.71 to 1.68
In PER, it's Faried by 23.1 to 21.3; and in WS/48 the same order, .237 to .146 -- with Vucevic, Leonard, and Ayon in between.

[Crow]

Kevin Pelton's per game projections for Rubio were reasonably accurate as was his projected 2 pt FG%. Rubio is actually better than he projected from 3 pt land but he is moderately worse than projected on TS%, perhaps because the 3pt FGA / total FGA is different than projected or the FT rate is different and certainly the FT% is clearly a lot lower.

[Mike G]

With the season .705 finished, rookies project to total 65 eWins.
Despite earlier rosy figures, it seems just a handful will end up >1.00 eW/484 min.

Code: Select all

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
6.8   Irving,Kyrie   Cle   31   .563   22.9   4.6   6.2   2.8   1.2   3.6   .5  1.76
4.5   Rubio,Ricky    Min   34   .466   11.3   4.5   9.2   2.5   2.3   3.4   .2  1.12
3.7   Walker,Kemba   Cha   27   .463   15.3   4.6   4.0   1.4   1.3   2.3   .4   .99
3.1 Parsons,Chandler Hou   28   .515   12.2   6.8   2.9   2.9   1.5   1.5   .7   .87
2.9   Knight,Brandon Det   32   .497   14.6   4.0   3.8   2.8    .8   2.8   .1   .66

2.8   Leonard,Kawhi  SAS   24   .559   11.9   7.7   1.3   1.9   2.0   1.0   .5   .88
2.7   Thomas,Isaiah  Sac   22   .562   15.4   3.7   4.8   2.4   1.2   2.6   .2   .91
2.7   Brooks,Marshon NJN   30   .505   15.8   4.7   2.8   2.6   1.2   2.4   .4   .84
2.7 Williams,Derrick Min   21   .517   14.3   8.1   1.1   2.1    .8   1.7   .7   .93
2.6   Faried,Kenneth Den   20   .606   16.4  13.2    .9   4.1   1.0   1.5  1.6  1.67

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
2.3   Ayon,Gustavo   NOH   21   .572   11.9   8.3   1.9   3.6   1.8   1.6  1.4   .97
2.1   Shumpert,Iman  NYK   28   .454   12.1   4.2   4.1   3.7   2.3   2.5   .3   .64
2.0  Morris,Markieff Phx   19   .454   12.2   8.0   1.6   4.9   1.3   1.8  1.2   .79
2.0 Thompson,Tristan Cle   21   .448   11.5   9.6    .6   3.1    .6   1.9  1.7   .80
2.0   Vucevic,Nikola Phi   17   .489   13.7   9.5   1.1   4.4    .8   1.4  1.5  1.08

2.0   Thompson,Klay  GSW   20   .537   16.5   3.4   2.5   3.6    .9   2.0   .4   .72
1.6  Biyombo,Bismack Cha   19   .454    7.5  10.2    .5   3.9    .7   1.9  3.1   .66
1.6   Kanter,Enes    Uta   14   .491   11.1  11.6    .3   2.9    .7   1.7   .8   .84
1.3   Cole,Norris    Mia   20   .469   13.2   2.7   4.3   3.6   1.2   2.7   .0   .47
1.2   Allen,Lavoy    Phi   16   .495   11.1   9.3   1.7   4.0    .8   1.2  1.0   .84

e66    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.1   Leuer,Jon      Mil   12   .534   13.1   6.8   1.6   3.7    .7   1.0  1.0   .80
1.0   Johnson,Ivan   Atl   14   .500   12.4   8.1   1.2   4.4   1.5   2.5   .6   .66
1.0   Burks,Alec     Uta   14   .497   14.8   4.5   1.6   2.8    .8   1.9   .2   .57
0.8  Harrellson,Josh NYK   16   .524   10.2   8.8    .7   2.7   1.5   1.2  1.1   .72
0.8   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos   11   .470    6.5   8.3   1.4   6.2   1.4   1.7  3.9   .63

Rubio currently has 3.25 eWins, and that is apparently where he will actually end up.

[Crow]

Which rookies do you think will get traded in the next 15 months? Who do you think are realistic trade opportunities and players you would offer sufficient exchange to actually get? Who do you think should be most active to try to get them given their system and needs?

Who would you be willing to sell or be motivated to sell and isn't entirely obvious a candidate for that?

[Crow]

I'd trade Kemba Walker is some GM was infatuated with the PG scorer thing and wouldn't need a huge return because Kemba is probably not going to provide a good return. On RAPM he is near the bottom. Take advantage of the boxscore - RAPM disparity, if you can, while you can.

I might trade Leonard too but it is a different case. WinShares likes him a lot. RAPM is lukewarm on him for non-prior informed. If someone made a great offer, I'd listen. Current starting lineup with him is performing very poorly in short trial so far. Probably not going anywhere though.

New York seems to really be invested in Shumpert. I think he was a bad pick for them and they should trade him if they got a decent offer.

Tristian Thompson really sucks on RAPM, for the Cavs. Like Hickson before him. And Eyenga. How long does it last for Thompson? And what does it say about their selection process and coaching usage of players? Does it mainly just say that the team sucks or is there more to it than that?

Does Biyombo improve greatly over his last place finish on non-prior informed RAPM? He probably will improve some but it is a big hill to climb to ok. much less lottery picked expected good. Sorry Rich.

Even if folks can't produce a good NCAA or foreign league RAPM or predict NBA RAPM directly from it, it probably would be worth trying to correlate and translate lower-level boxscore stats into APM predictions. Even if you can't predict for individual players there are probably some rough or more likely trends (by position and role) to glean with a little effort.