tm opp srs mov bpm SRS 5bpm
Bos Cle 4.1 -9.3 -.73 -5.2 -3.7
Mil Chi 2.5 -12.3 -1.80 -9.8 -9.0
Tor Was .2 -14.0 -3.01 -13.8 -15.1
Brk Atl 4.8 -5.5 .28 -.8 1.4
Dal Hou 3.8 -4.2 .26 -.4 1.3
Por Mem 3.6 -6.8 -.38 -3.2 -1.9
NOP GSW 10.0 -8.0 1.18 2.0 5.9
SAS LAC 6.8 .4 2.16 7.2 10.8
The last 2 columns should be close. Multiplying or dividing by pace/100 doesn't give much consistency.
Those last 2 -- Pels and Spurs -- are especially perplexing. Both teams have way-high BPM at b-r.com, relative to their teams' playoff SRS.
Spurs and Pelicans were among the highest on playoff assists per game despite average and below average pace. Raptors were below average on assists. Spurs best on defensive rebounding rate. Pelicans worst. Raptors worst on offensive rebounding. Is the way BPM handles assists and rebounds the reason or part of the reason for your noted discrepancy? I wonder about that but there are other possible answers.
Playoff SRS is jerky. And I guess it might be worth noting that pace is avg. team offensive possessions and it can vary a bit depending on end of quarter plays. Perhaps points off of fouls or technical fouls varied from expected? Or off steals or saved by blocks? I dunno. May not be worth sweating it.
Celtics and Blazers? Both below avg. on assists per game on slow pace, Blazers much lower. Both below average on offensive rebounds. Blazers high on defensive rebounds while Celtics were quite low. One overachieved, one underachieved in the comparison.
There may be other inaccuracies / distortions involved at least in these discrete cases, perhaps on the defensive side and perhaps for these same factors. Metric designed to do best possible on average across broad data set.
Boston and New Orleans very high on 3pt rate, Spurs low, Blazers by far lowest. Pelicans and Raptors
very high on 3pt assisted rate, Blazers, Spurs and Celtics low or very low.
I looked at 5 stats and these teams were almost always well away from average. Not such a surprise to me that their BPM estimates vary from playoff SRS. Also if playoff BPM is based on regular season BPM values there might be some regular season to playoff variance in those values?
LeBron is dominating his team to make them competitive in these Finals. After 5 games, his per game averages are heroic in scale.
Here are the top 10 Finalists since 1985 in per game Pts+Ast+Reb+Stl+Blk.
The final colum multiplies this Total by 100/pace. Every event is more frequent when there are more possessions.
One could argue that LeBron's low TS% make his Pts/G less valuable.
One could also note that his 36.6 Pts are .367 of opponent points in the series.
Shaq in 2000 scored .356 of what the Pacers scored.
Jordan scored .384 of Suns' total points in '93.
The above table has been edited to include the Finals' game 6.
LeBron increased his per-game averages total, on the strength of 18 rebounds in the finale.
But the avg pace of the series increased enough that he drops behind 2000 Shaq, ending up with just the 2nd most prolific Finals production in the last 31 years.
Was LeBron the best loser ever? Or relative to anyone on the winning team?
Last 10 years' top Finals participants in aggregate Game Score: http://bkref.com/tiny/rZQzx
Well, this is actually kind of fun. Game Score obviously misses some of the smaller stuff, but it might be ideal for this kind of exercise; showing who was in the games and contributing at what level.
Previous 10 years:
Karl Malone ranks #24 on the list, and Stockton ranks 33. I guess there's no accounting for low pace or tight defense in a game. Oh well.
Wins and Trips (w/T) are from memory, so please point out errors.