Improved players 2016-17

[Mike G]

Ranked by eWins above and beyond last year's rates in this year's minutes.
Some of this season's stats on the left, last year on the right.

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eW+    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2016 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.90   James Harden  Hou  .603   29.8   8.3  12.4   2.87      .584   26.3   5.8   7.0   1.95
.63   Kemba Walker  Cha  .594   30.4   4.4   6.3   2.38      .545   21.4   4.5   5.6   1.62
.62   Ru. Westbrook Okl  .555   35.3  10.5  10.1   3.21      .543   24.3   8.5  11.6   2.54
.58   Jimmy Butler  Chi  .594   28.1   7.0   4.1   2.15      .550   20.2   5.0   4.3   1.54
.58   Nick Young    LAL  .625   19.6   3.6   1.6   1.01      .478   11.8   3.0   1.0    .20

.57   George Hill   Uta  .650   26.5   3.2   5.7   1.95  Ind .549   13.0   4.2   3.8    .79
.56 G Antetokounmpo Mil  .547   23.7   8.6   5.4   2.08      .554   17.0   8.0   4.0   1.43
.54   DeMar DeRozan Tor  .565   33.9   4.8   3.6   2.28      .537   24.4   4.8   4.5   1.69
.53   Avery Bradley Bos  .550   18.5   8.0   3.3   1.33      .534   16.2   3.0   2.4    .78
.52 D'Ang'o Russell LAL  .537   21.8   4.8   6.2   1.42      .501   15.5   4.1   3.8    .65

eW+    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2016 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.51   Anthony Davis NOP  .575   31.2  10.1   1.8   2.61      .548   23.4  10.6   1.8   2.11
.51  Andrew Wiggins Min  .568   27.1   4.9   2.4   1.55      .531   20.4   3.9   2.0    .98
.49   Jabari Parker Mil  .529   22.2   7.0   2.4   1.48      .528   15.7   6.0   1.8    .88
.49   Chris Paul    LAC  .602   24.8   6.3  11.9   2.79      .566   21.9   4.4  11.7   2.24
.45   Blake Griffin LAC  .552   26.9  10.3   5.5   2.53      .535   23.4   8.6   5.8   2.05

.41   Lou Williams  LAL  .594   24.1   3.4   5.0   1.55      .568   17.9   3.0   2.7    .88
.40 Harrison Barnes Dal  .531   22.5   5.5    .9   1.24  GSW .553   13.3   5.6   2.3    .81
.39   Mike Muscala  Atl  .694   18.4   7.5   3.1   1.39      .569   11.1   6.2   1.9    .67
.38   Dwight Howard Atl  .570   20.3  16.8   1.9   2.22  Hou .583   14.7  13.1   1.7   1.63
.38   Tim Hardaway  Atl  .583   21.7   3.5   2.4   1.21      .556   12.7   3.1   2.0    .49

1.00 eWins/484 minutes is NBA average.
This is at 15% of the season.

[Mike G]

Before this season, Avery Bradley had 2 games (in 360) in which he'd gotten 10 or more rebounds.
This year, he's done it 7 times in his first 12 games. Still listed as SG.
Last year he was 9th on the Celtics in boards; this year he has twice what anyone else has.

Harrison Barnes went from the best team to the worst (?)

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yr   tm    PER   Usg%   WS/48   Bpm   e484
16  GSW   12.3   15.9   .116   -0.2    .81
17  Dal   17.0   26.3   .094   -2.9   1.24

His BPM this year is career worst. PER by far best.

[rlee]

Passing this along just because it is an interesting take on the subject:

http://hoopshabit.com/2016/11/25/nba-5- ... ed-player/

[Mike G]

Thanks, Ray. The 5 they look at are (my rank): Andrew Wiggins (12), Jabari Parker (13), Anteto ... (7), George Hill (6), and a link to Kareem (??). Well, I almost never pursue these broken up articles past the intro page.

[rlee]

The other one was Wilson Chandler...and I'm with you...don't like slideshows & rarely bother with them

[Mike G]

Relative to his 2015 numbers, my rates as of a few days ago* would rank Chandler just in the top 40 most improved this year. Maybe they give him extra credit for the scope of his 'comeback' from injury.

* His last 3 games were not very good, so it's not that.

[rlee]

Yes, they did give EC for injury recovery

[rlee]

Here is another take I stumbled on:

http://www.12up.com/posts/4160342-7-sur ... out-season

[Mike G]

Starting out with most regressed, underproductive players. Relative to last season but still getting major minutes.

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eW+      per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484  1516 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.69   Ed Davis        Por  .517    7.2   9.1   1.2   .38      .599   10.2  11.9   1.8   1.41
-.68   Bismack Biyombo Orl  .457    7.5  10.5   1.2   .54  Tor .566    8.9  13.1    .6   1.33
-.59   Aaron Gordon    Orl  .442   12.7   6.2   2.3   .69      .532   13.2   9.5   2.2   1.29
-.58 LaMarcus Aldridge SAS  .545   22.4   7.8   1.9  1.54      .556   23.2  10.6   1.9   2.07
-.50  Danilo Gallinari Den  .560   17.2   4.8   2.1   .86      .566   19.6   5.7   2.4   1.33

-.50   Luol Deng       LAL  .414    8.4   8.1   2.2   .50  Mia .542   14.2   6.9   2.1   1.03
-.49   Aron Baynes     Det  .519   10.7   8.6    .6   .45      .551   13.7  10.5   1.3   1.20
-.49   Nikola Jokic    Den  .549   13.5   9.7   4.2  1.17      .573   15.5  11.6   3.7   1.77
-.49   Andrew Bogut    Dal  .419    5.3  15.3   3.0   .84  GSW .617    8.9  11.6   4.5   1.55
-.47   Evan Turner     Por  .472   10.8   5.1   3.5   .47  Bos .507   12.9   5.8   5.8    .96

eW+      per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484  1516 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.47   Marcin Gortat   Was  .602   12.9  12.6   1.5  1.16      .583   15.5  11.9   1.7   1.57
-.46  Robert Covington Phl  .443   10.4   6.2   1.3   .47      .536   15.0   7.5   1.6    .92
-.46   Monta Ellis     Ind  .515   11.9   3.8   4.4   .52      .499   15.0   3.5   5.2    .89
-.44   Ryan Anderson   Hou  .536   14.7   7.2   1.2   .72  NOP .539   18.5   7.0   1.2   1.10
-.44   Lavoy Allen     Ind  .327    3.3   6.1   2.2  -.04      .526    9.3   9.0   1.7    .73

-.43   Allen Crabbe    Por  .535    9.8   3.2   1.7   .13      .566   13.2   3.5   1.6    .52
-.42   J.R. Smith      Cle  .451    9.5   2.7   1.7   .27      .539   15.1   3.5   2.1    .78
-.41   Marvin Williams Cha  .455   12.8   7.8   1.8   .76      .579   14.7   8.0   1.8   1.24
-.40   Paul Millsap    Atl  .508   19.1   9.2   4.0  1.57      .545   19.3   9.5   3.7   1.90
-.40   Cole Aldrich    Min  .532    6.6   9.9   1.1   .58  LAC .614   13.5  11.1   2.2   1.54
-.40   Ricky Rubio     Min  .494    8.0   5.0   8.0   .77      .515   11.3   5.3   9.7   1.32

This season on the left and last year on the right.
Ranked by eWins short of what they'd have produced if they were as good as last year.

Top of the list has a new leader:

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eW+   Giannis   per36  tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  1516 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.02  Antetokounmpo   Mil  .580   26.2   8.9   6.2   2.32      .554   17.0   8.0   4.0   1.43
.99   James Harden    Hou  .596   30.1   7.9  12.0   2.67      .584   26.3   5.8   7.0   1.95
.98   Jimmy Butler    Chi  .614   31.0   6.9   4.4   2.38      .550   20.2   5.0   4.3   1.54
.94   Anthony Davis   NOP  .591   33.9  10.1   2.1   2.78      .548   23.4  10.6   1.8   2.11
.90   George Hill     Uta  .657   28.3   4.0   5.0   2.00  Ind .549   13.0   4.2   3.8    .79

.71   Nick Young      LAL  .619   20.1   3.6   1.6    .96      .478   11.8   3.0   1.0    .20
.69 Russell Westbrook OkC  .534   33.0  11.1  11.5   3.04  Okl .543   24.3   8.5  11.6   2.54
.65   Kemba Walker    Cha  .591   29.4   4.3   5.6   2.15      .545   21.4   4.5   5.6   1.62
.63   Mike Conley     Mem  .587   25.8   4.4   6.5   1.92      .529   17.5   3.5   6.7   1.37
.62   Avery Bradley   Bos  .547   19.0   7.4   2.9   1.27      .534   16.2   3.0   2.4    .78

eW+    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  1516 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.59   Kevin Durant    GSW  .668   32.4   8.5   5.6   2.82  Okl .622   28.1   8.5   5.3   2.36
.54   Jabari Parker   Mil  .524   21.7   6.6   2.5   1.38      .528   15.7   6.0   1.8    .88
.54   Dion Waiters    Mia  .450   16.6   3.9   4.5    .88  Okl .486   12.1   3.4   2.7    .37
.52  DeMarcus Cousins Sac  .557   32.5  11.7   3.4   2.61      .525   25.9  11.7   3.2   2.20
.51  D'Angelo Russell LAL  .528   21.1   4.7   6.4   1.36      .501   15.5   4.1   3.8    .65

.51   Otto Porter     Was  .597   17.1   8.8   1.6   1.39      .558   13.2   6.2   1.8    .94
.51   Rudy Gay        Sac  .559   21.8   6.9   3.2   1.49      .531   16.9   6.8   1.8   1.07
.47   Lou Williams    LAL  .582   23.6   3.1   4.6   1.39      .568   17.9   3.0   2.7    .88
.47   DeMar DeRozan   Tor  .549   30.7   5.5   4.4   2.06      .537   24.4   4.8   4.5   1.69
.46   Wilson Chandler Den  .543   20.6   9.0   2.0   1.38      .519   15.6   6.8   1.9    .89

This is at .215 of the season

In 4 games since the previous issue, Giannis A has averaged 25.5 pts, 9.3 Reb, 7.5 Ast, 3 Stl, and 2 Blk.
Shooting .633 on FG and .828 FT.

Durant is enjoying career best PER (30.7), TS% (.681), DRb% (22.6), TRb% (13.3), Stl% (2.2), Blk% (3.5), TO% (10.3), WS/48 (.316) and BPM (9.3). His Ast% is also above his career avg (22 vs 18).
Both his 3fg% (.442) and his 2fg% (.621) are career highs, the latter being .104 above his career avg.
A career high 11% of his shots have been dunks, and a near-high 26% of all shots are within 3' -- where he's shooting a career best .833.
FT% (.849) is career low. So what.

[Mike G]

When we throw other summary metrics into the mix, we get alternative lists.
Converting PER and BPM to faux wins, plus WS, here's the average of 4 metrics' wins added over last season's rates.

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wins+   improved      min    tm   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484      PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
1.24  Anthony Davis   675   NOP   32.6   .269   7.3   2.78      25.0   .160   2.2   2.11
1.14  Jimmy Butler    563   Chi   29.4   .320   8.1   2.38      21.3   .177   4.0   1.54
1.10  G Antetokounmpo 556   Mil   26.4   .205   8.8   2.32      18.8   .121   2.4   1.43
.98   George Hill     360   Uta   25.5   .286   7.0   2.00      13.2   .118   1.5    .79
.88   James Harden    664   Hou   29.5   .277  10.2   2.67      25.3   .204   6.7   1.95

.88   Nick Young      450   LAL   15.7   .132    .5    .96       9.1   .003  -4.8    .20
.76   Mike Conley     547   Mem   23.6   .221   6.4   1.92      19.4   .144   1.7   1.37
.76  DeMarcus Cousins 613   Sac   28.5   .205   5.9   2.61      23.6   .122   2.6   2.20
.66   Kemba Walker    599   Cha   25.6   .215   7.0   2.15      20.8   .165   4.0   1.62
.65   Myles Turner    483   Ind   21.1   .178   2.3   1.60      15.4   .109  -2.3   1.19

wins+   improved      min    tm   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484      PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
.64   Otto Porter     548   Was   19.8   .192   4.5   1.39      14.5   .119   1.8    .94
.58 Russell Westbrook 673   OkC   30.6   .236  14.5   3.04      27.6   .245  10.0   2.54
.58   Chris Paul      599   LAC   28.1   .309  11.6   2.59      26.2   .253   7.8   2.24
.57   Marco Belinelli 459   Cha   13.1   .106   -.6    .69       9.4   .014  -4.2    .28
.55   Rudy Gay        589   Sac   19.5   .126   2.0   1.49      15.5   .078   -.4   1.07

.52   Kevin Love      507   Cle   25.6   .251   3.1   2.22      19.0   .169   2.5   1.85
.51   Beno Udrih      340   Det   15.7   .114   -.8    .89       9.5   .029  -4.8    .29
.46   Kevin Durant    620   GSW   30.7   .316   9.3   2.82      28.2   .270   7.9   2.36
.45   Dwight Howard   491   Atl   22.3   .197   2.8   2.03      18.9   .138    .6   1.63
.44   Zach LaVine     581   Min   16.6   .117    .2   1.11      14.3   .054  -1.4    .80

wins+   improved      min    tm   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484      PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
.42   Lou Williams    447   LAL   22.9   .154   2.3   1.39      17.7   .119    .3    .88
.41  D'Angelo Russell 348   LAL   17.3   .058   1.0   1.36      13.2   .001  -1.8    .65
.40   Jabari Parker   522   Mil   17.9   .109   -.9   1.38      14.8   .072  -2.4    .88
.40   Wilson Chandler 463   Den   18.6   .128    .5   1.38      13.2   .071    .2    .89
.36 K Caldwell-Pope   629   Det   14.7   .116   2.8    .94      12.4   .092   1.1    .65
.36   DeMar DeRozan   618   Tor   26.4   .183   1.8   2.06      21.5   .169   1.4   1.69

These are just from my top 30 eW+ as seen above. Last year on the right (W Chandler is from 2014-15)
Isiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Gordon Hayward, Dion Waiters, and Harrison Barnes are omitted, as one or more metrics doesn't like them enough this year.

[Nathan]

Giannis currently has a BPM of +9.6. The youngest player in NBA history to post a BPM of +10 or greater was LeBron, who did it at age 23; Giannis would be a full year younger if he pulls it off this season. Do you all think this improvement is for real? Would you pick him over Davis and Towns to start a franchise? Is he more likely than not to go on to win MVP(s)?

[rlee]

A take from Houston:

http://spacecityscoop.com/2016/12/04/cl ... ed-player/

[rlee]

Another Candidate: Hayward


http://www.nba.com/jazz/emptying-noggin ... -hayward-0

[Mike G]

At 28% of the season

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eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%    Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.53 G. Antetokounmpo Mil  .578   25.2   9.4   6.3   2.47      .554   17.0   8.0   4.0   1.43
1.42   James Harden   Hou  .589   29.4   7.9  11.3   2.77      .584   26.3   5.8   7.0   1.95
1.40   Anthony Davis  NOP  .571   32.0  10.3   2.0   2.91      .548   23.4  10.6   1.8   2.11
1.36  Rus. Westbrook  OkC  .524   32.9  11.3  10.8   3.34      .543   24.3   8.5  11.6   2.54
1.28   Jimmy Butler   Chi  .588   29.0   6.7   3.9   2.31      .550   20.2   5.0   4.3   1.54

1.15 DeMarcus Cousins Sac  .544   32.0  11.8   3.7   2.94      .525   25.9  11.7   3.2   2.20
1.09   Lou Williams   LAL  .599   27.1   3.3   4.2   1.72      .568   17.9   3.0   2.7    .88
1.03   DeMar DeRozan  Tor  .545   30.8   5.6   4.7   2.29      .537   24.4   4.8   4.5   1.69
1.02   Marc Gasol     Mem  .542   24.7   7.0   4.6   2.04      .519   17.4   7.6   3.9   1.40
0.98   George Hill    Uta  .657   28.4   4.1   4.9   2.11  Ind .549   13.0   4.2   3.8    .79

eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%    Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.96   Gordon Hayward  Uta  .565   27.7   6.7   4.0   2.17      .548   21.2   5.4   3.8   1.40
.95   Jabari Parker   Mil  .530   22.5   6.4   2.5   1.55      .528   15.7   6.0   1.8    .88
.89   Kemba Walker    Cha  .573   28.1   4.0   5.9   2.19      .545   21.4   4.5   5.6   1.62
.89   Avery Bradley   Bos  .561   19.2   7.7   2.7   1.31      .534   16.2   3.0   2.4    .78
.86   Kevin Durant    GSW  .649   29.7   8.9   5.5   2.88  Okl .622   28.1   8.5   5.3   2.36

.76   Mike Conley     Mem  .587   25.9   4.2   6.5   2.04      .529   17.5   3.5   6.7   1.37
.72   Damian Lillard  Por  .588   28.7   4.9   5.4   2.07      .551   24.6   4.1   6.7   1.66
.69   Nick Young      LAL  .615   20.6   3.6   1.6    .95      .478   11.8   3.0   1.0    .20
.69   Harrison Barnes Dal  .520   21.6   5.9   1.2   1.22  GSW .553   13.3   5.6   2.3    .81
.69   Kevin Love      Cle  .599   27.4  12.0   2.0   2.34      .544   19.0  11.9   2.9   1.85

[rlee]

Marc Stein's Take:

http://www.espn.com/blog/marc-stein/pos ... %e2%80%8ed